SB Nation - Toni Rajala

Top 25 Under 25 - Summer 2012 - Final Rankings

Scott Reynolds — Sat, 11 Aug 2012 17:30:09 -0000

We're now through the sixth installment of the Top 25 Under 25, and a quick trip into the way-back machine helps to show how Edmonton's group of young players has blossomed. In our first list, Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi held the top three spots. Now, those three players have been bumped down to 6th, 4th, and 8th respectively with plenty of high-end talent filling in the spots around them. There have been a lot of losses in these last three years, but those losses have brought a lot of talent. Best of all, even though this group is maturing, this list is likely to look even better a year from now with just two players in the top twenty-five graduating because of age in either of our next two installments (Jeff Petry and Theo Peckham). If you're a fan of the Edmonton Oilers, it's the young players that give you hope. Let's take a look at everyone's complete list after the jump.

The chart below shows each writer's individual rankings as well as the overall list. With eight panelists, big moves up or down the overall list aren't common, but there's plenty of movement on the individual lists. All forty-three players under consideration are listed below, and the columns are sortable; just click on the header row that you'd like to see and you're ready to go.

Overall	Player	Alan	Ben	Bruce	DB	Derek	Jon	Ryan	Scott
1	Taylor Hall	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1
2	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	2	3	2	3	4	1	2	2
3	Nail Yakupov	3	2	4	4	2	3	3	3
4	Jordan Eberle	4	4	3	2	6	4	5	4
5	Jeff Petry	5	6	6	6	3	5	4	6
6	Sam Gagner	6	5	5	5	5	6	6	5
7	Justin Schultz	7	8	7	7	10	7	8	7
8	Magnus Paajarvi	8	11	9	8	7	8	7	8
9	Oscar Klefbom	10	7	8	10	8	9	9	9
10	Teemu Hartikainen	9	9	11	9	11	10	10	10
11	Martin Marincin	12	10	10	12	14	12	11	11
12	Anton Lander	11	12	13	11	15	13	13	16
13	Tyler Pitlick	18	16	14	14	9	14	15	17
14	David Musil	17	15	15	19	13	15	14	14
15	Dillon Simpson	21	13	19	18	12	21	12	12
16	Martin Gernat	14	24	12	21	23	11	18	15
17	Colten Teubert	15	23	18	22	18	19	16	13
18	Olivier Roy	16	14	20	13	17	18	24	27
19	Tobias Rieder	20	21	17	23	19	16	17	18
20	Tyler Bunz	13	19	16	15	26	17	27	28
21	Theo Peckham	23	18	21	16	25	20	19	21
22	Curtis Hamilton	22	22	23	20	22	23	20	20
23	Alex Plante	24	17	22	17	27	25	21	22
24	Kyle Bigos	27	25	24	25	16	31	22	19
25	Jujhar Khaira	29	20	30	28	24	27	26	23
26	Taylor Fedun	19	28	28	24	21	33	23	32
27	Daniil Zharkov	25	32	29	26	20	26	25	29
28	Brandon Davidson	26	30	27	32	28	34	28	26
29	Erik Gustafsson	41	27	26	36	30	24	30	24
30	Philippe Cornet	28	29	32	29	29	32	32	36
31	Joey Laleggia	37	26	33	33	31	30	34	25
32	Ryan Martindale	33	31	36	27	34	35	33	30
33	Antti Tyrvainen	32	37	31	30	42	29	29	31
34	Mitch Moroz	30	35	25	40	39	22	36	35
35	Samu Perhonen	34	34	34	31	37	28	35	33
36	Frans Tuohimaa	36	36	40	35	38	36	31	34
37	Kristians Pelss	35	33	35	37	40	40	37	37
38	Mark Arcobello	31	42	38	34	32	38	40	42
39	Toni Rajala	38	41	39	38	35	39	38	41
40	Travis Ewanyk	39	38	37	42	36	42	39	39
41	Kellen Jones	40	40	41	39	33	41	42	40
42	John McCarron	43	39	42	41	41	37	41	38
43	Cameron Abney	42	43	43	43	43	43	43	43

As always, I'm interested in hearing about where you think we went wrong, and to get that conversation started, let's look at each ranker's unique selections and big moves (hilariously, one panelist has a player as his biggest riser while another has the player as his biggest faller):

Scott Reynolds:

Biggest Riser - Rieder (Up 5)
Biggest Fallers - Lander, Hamilton, Davidson, Perhonen, Rajala (Down 5)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Paajarvi (Down 3)
Way Off Consensus - Roy (9 Lower), Bunz (8 Lower), Laleggia (8 Higher)

Ryan Batty:

Biggest Riser - Tuohimaa (Up 6)
Biggest Faller - Davidson (Down 10)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Eberle (Down 3)
Way Off Consensus - Bunz (7 Lower), Roy (6 Lower), Tuohimaa (5 Higher)

Jonathan Willis:

Biggest Riser - Gernat (Up 8)
Biggest Faller - Fedun (Down 12)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Paajarvi (Down 3)
Way Off Consensus - Moroz (12 Higher), Perhonen (7 Higher), Fedun (7 Lower), Bigos (7 Lower)

Derek Zona:

Biggest Riser - Gernat (Up 10)
Biggest Faller - Tuohimaa (Down 13)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Gagner (Down 3)
Way Off Consensus - Tyrvainen (9 Lower), Jones (8 Higher), Bigos (8 Higher)

Dawgbone:

Biggest Riser - Rieder (Up 7)
Biggest Faller - Davidson (Down 16)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Petry (Up 4)
Way Off Consensus - Gustafsson (7 Lower), Plante (6 Higher), Moroz (6 Lower)

Bruce McCurdy:

Biggest Riser - Gernat (Up 11)
Biggest Faller - Davidson, Ewanyk (Down 9)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Paajarvi, Hartikainen (Down 3)
Way Off Consensus - Moroz (9 Higher), Khaira (5 Lower)

Benjamin Massey:

Biggest Riser - Cornet (Up 11)
Biggest Faller - Hamilton (Down 11)
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - Paajarvi (Down 5)
Way Off Consensus - Gernat (8 Lower), Teubert (6 Lower), Plante (6 Higher)

Alan Hull:

Biggest Riser - N/A
Biggest Faller - N/A
Biggest Move in the Top Ten - N/A
Way Off Consensus - Gustafsson (12 Lower), Fedun (7 Higher), Bunz (7 Higher), Arcobello (7 Higher)

The Oilers' Top 25 Under 25: The Dark Horses

Copper and Blue Staff — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 12:30:02 -0000

Just as we did after our summer installment of the Top 25 Under 25, we're searching through the "And everybody else..." group of prospects to find a dark horse, a longshot who will make an impact in the NHL. Remember, it's unlikely that anyone outside of the top 10 is going to become an impact player, let alone anyone else on the list. But we soldiered on anyway.

"Out of the group of players including Taylor Fedun, Daniil Zharkov, Brandon Davidson, Erik Gustafsson, Philippe Cornet, Joey Laleggia, Ryan Martindale, Antti Tyrvainen, Mitch Moroz, Samu Perhonen, Frans Tuohimaa, Kristians Pelss, Mark Arcobello, Toni Rajala, Travis Ewanyk, Kellen Jones, John McCarron, Cameron Abney, which player is most likely to play 200 games in the NHL?"

Jonathan Willis: Mitch Moroz. The Oilers spent a second-round pick on him at the last draft, and they apparently weren't the only team that was thinking hard about reaching to take him early. Even if he doesn't work out as a power forward (and let's admit it, the odds are more against him than they are in his favour), he's still a big, mean guy currently playing in the WHL. He also has some ability to both skate and shoot the puck and had 20 fighting majors last year. The Oilers love players exactly like this, and will give him every opportunity.

Ryan Batty: I really want to say Taylor Fedun. What I saw in camp last year before the injury makes me think there's a real player there. And a big part of me likes his story. His route to an NHL contract was hardly traditional and now he has a terrible injury to overcome. I really want to say Fedun but I can't. For my money Mitch Moroz is the most likely I the long shots to play 200 games. I've seen Moroz play a lot of games and I haven't seen anything that makes me think he was a smart pick at #31 but the Oilers clearly did. And whatever it is that they see (or think the see), they're going to give him every chance possible to show everyone else. That will mean roster time long after it's clear he doesn't deserve it. Moroz is the new JF Jacques.

Alan Hull: Taylor Fedun. I personally had him in my top 25 and although he doesn't have any NHL experience and his pro experience is essentially limited to a single training camp where he performed quite well, I consider him to be a bit of an enigma among the prospects and therefore more likely to surprise (either in a positive or negative way). He is a few years older than many of the prospects which could help him adjust quicker to the pro game and I think this coming season will go a long way to determining how much he is valued within the organization over the long term. If last's year's camp was just an anomaly, then he'll likely fade into the background as the Klefbom's and Gernat's start to join the North American pro ranks, but if he can regain that form and sustain it, he might be able to be the first of the group to break through and give himself a head start at establishing himself in the NHL compared to the rest of the defensive cluster coming along.

Scott Reynolds: Cameron Abney. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this guy is a good player (I ranked him dead last), but the Oilers clearly like him and have a role for him. Even after he didn't develop into anything more than a fighter in the WHL, they signed him to an entry-level contract, so they've now invested quite a lot in him knowing full well that this player's value comes exclusively with his fists (not to be confused with hands). He started the year in Stockton in 2011-12, and had what I would have to assume was an acceptable time there with five points and 132 penalty minutes in 29 games before finishing up with 14 AHL games. I expect he'll have a full year in the AHL this coming season. If he plays 200 NHL games in his career, they won't be effective minutes, but his path to the NHL seems the clearest of anyone on the outside of the top twenty-five.

dawgbone: Ryan Martindale. Though Darcy Hordichuk has over 200 NHL games, so it might be one of the goons.

Ben Massey: My money is on Mitch Moroz who has two things going for him. First, as a high-second round pick, he will tend to get the benefit of the doubt against a later-drafted player. Second, he's a large guy who hits hard and throws punches and very, very occasionally puts the puck in the net; basically, he's the sort of "power forward" NHL coaches still talk themselves into awfully easily. Note that neither of those reasons involved hockey-playing ability, and I still don't think Moroz is exactly likely to get to 200; just the least unlikely.

Derek Zona: Daniil Zharkov. He's a talented winger and has some goal-scoring ability. His numbers faltered down the stretch last season, but if he can recover and post some decent numbers for Belleville, he's going to be back on track. Besides, anyone who is this motivated:

"It’s my goal to be better than Yakupov. I think it makes me more angry and makes me work harder than if it wasn’t for Yakupov."

Should be fun to follow no matter what.

Prepare The Way Of The Plugs

Scott Reynolds — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 17:30:02 -0000

Yesterday's vote was very tight, but in the end, readers gave Jujhar Khaira two more votes than Philippe Cornet. But that vote didn't have the drama an incumbent.

Today, we've got another two candidates from the 2012 draft, plus Curtis Hamilton trying to defend his spot, Taylor Fedun looking to make his first appearance in the Top 25 after being the last list's bubble-boy (Roberto Luongo was so close to becoming a choking legend!), and three men who have been trending down for the last little while and hope to move back up.

I'll take a closer look at each candidate after the jump.

Taylor Fedun - He hasn't played a single game since our winter rankings because of a devastating leg injury he sustained in an exhibition game at the end of last year's training camp. But he climbed all the way from #39 to #26 last time based on nothing more than a strong training camp and despite the aforementioned injury. That seemed a little bit excessive to me when you consider how often players look great in camp and then fall back substantially once the season starts. But with Fedun poised to return - he participated in this year's rookie camp just a few weeks ago, and his recovery seems to be going well - it seems quite possible that he could rise again, especially with some of the players ahead of him having difficult seasons themselves. Last Ranking: #26

Curtis Hamilton - This would be a rather precipitous fall, but Curtis Hamilton didn't exactly have a sterling pro debut. He had trouble getting into the lineup all season, and then was injured in the month of March. That injury was likely one of the factors that contributed to him being left off of Oklahoma City's clear day roster, which meant playing in just two of their fourteen playoff games. By his own admission, his first year was a struggle. Of course, that's not all that unusual for players coming out of the CHL, and Hamilton was came to the AHL younger than most. It was a brutal year, but he's been tracking well prior to that, so the question is simply how much to push him down the list. Last Ranking: #16

Ryan Martindale - For Ryan Martindale the answer to, "How much do we push him down the list?" was, "A whole bunch" after his pro career got off to a rough start. Martindale didn't make the Barons out of camp and scored just 15 points in 34 ECHL games while registering a -13 rating (third-worst on the team). He also lost about three weeks of the season to injury. But at least in the ECHL there were was the odd positive sign, like his shot rate of 3.18 per game. After getting back from injury, Martindale was called up to the AHL, and I can't even grasp at straws to find positive signs there. Martindale had just 2 points in 16 contests and saw his shot rate fall to less than 1.00 per game. He obviously wasn't getting much ice time, but that's a pretty bad year. Last Ranking: #28

John McCarron - This is a big guy who has enough skill to play among the top nine forwards of an NCAA team. He had already passed through two entry drafts before this year, but that last bit was new this year and is likely what convinced the Oilers to draft him. He played with Cornell last season and finished seventh on the team in scoring with 19 points in 35 games, but finished second in penalty minutes with 61 (likely considered a plus for this player). He was one of just 15 forwards in the NCAA to register at least 15 points and at least 60 penalty minutes while being a plus player, and he did it in his freshman year. The Oilers are likely hoping for a step forward in year two, similar to the one that Alex Chiasson took from his 19-year-old to his 20-year-old season. If he can do that, he'll be worth getting excited about. Last Ranking: N/A

Mitch Moroz - Moroz's story isn't that much different than McCarron's in that they're counting on the player to take a big step forward. Of course, Moroz was taken over 100 picks earlier in the draft, so the risk is a bit harder to stomach. Regardless, the Oilers made the pick thinking that Moroz was trending up and that he would get more opportunities in offensive situations with the Oil Kings in 2012-13. The hope is probably for something approaching a point per game if he gets power play time (he had six power play points last season, so it's not unfathomable) while retaining the physicality that the Oilers already like. It'll be interesting to see if he can deliver. Last Ranking: N/A

Toni Rajala - You generally expect players to get substantially better as they get older, but some guys just get a little bit better, and a whole bunch of people pass them by. That's more or less what's happened with Toni Rajala. He had his best season in the SM-Liiga this year, which is good, but it's not a good enough season to really get excited. He set a career high in points with 29 (in 51 games), a career high in goals with 16, and was more instrumental on this year's team than he has ever been in the past, finishing second in team scoring. H but it wasn't really that much better than his previous performances. But while it's very nice that he's improving, offense is his only calling card, and his offense just isn't enough to make you excited. Last Ranking: #36

Frans Tuohimaa - He was fantastic in the U20 league, but moving up to the SM-Liiga was a big step for Tuohimaa. When Jokerit's starter was injured, it presented a big opportunity, but Tuohimaa struggled to an .898 save percentage in 18 games, placing him 28th out of 32 goalies with at least ten games (but ahead of Vesa Toskala!). Tuohimaa then had to deal with a concussion, which kept him on the sidelines for an extended period. When he returned, the team loaned him to Kiekko-Vantaa in Finland's second division where he performed much better, posting a .921 save percentage in 16 games, placing him in 6th out of 23 goalies with at least ten games. Both of those are very small sample sizes, so it's tough to get a clear read, but "mixed" is a lot better than "bad", which is what his season looked like when we came together for our winter rankings. Last Ranking: #35

Poll

Which player do you think made it into the Top 25?

Taylor Fedun

178 votes

Curtis Hamilton

77 votes

Ryan Martindale

4 votes

John McCarron

1 votes

Mitch Moroz

48 votes

Toni Rajala

8 votes

Frans Tuohimaa

3 votes

319 votes | Poll has closed

Oklahoma City Barons Will Have Nelson, Thompson & Fleming Back Behind The Bench

Derek Zona — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 18:00:13 -0000

Even though his candidacy for the Oilers head-coaching position was short-lived, Barons coach Todd Nelson will be back behind the bench in Oklahoma City in 2012-13. The Oilers announced the news yesterday:

General Manager Steve Tambellini announced today the Edmonton Oilers have re-signed Oklahoma City Barons Head Coach Todd Nelson and Assistant Coaches Gerry Fleming and Rocky Thompson.

Neal reported on a Nelson radio interview yesterday as well:

"OKC is stuck with me for a few more years, and the way things are going I have a bright future ahead."

Joanne Ireland's take:

He didn’t even consider pursuing an NHL assistant coaching job as he is convinced he can gain more experience by overseeing the Barons.

2012-13 looks like it will be a true test of Nelson's coaching ability. In winning the Western Conference regular season title last season, Nelson directed a mostly veteran squad, interspersed with a few young, high-end talents. The Oilers handed him two veteran goalies with NHL experience, a bunch of AHL veteran forwards and talents like Linus Omark and Magnus Paajarvi along with heralded draft picks like Tyler Pitlick. He was forced however, to deal with a very young defense, but the Barons added Kevin Montgomery and Bryan Rodney as veterans to help out as the Barons lost Alex Plante, Colten Teubert and Taylor Chorney. But Nelson knows the Barons are about to get even younger:

"Now we’re looking at the board, thinking, ‘Oh my goodness, we’re going to be even younger.’ "

The Barons are about to add Brandon Davidson, Taylor Fedun, Martin Marincin, Ryan Martindale (for a full season) Cam Abney (for a full season), and possibly Toni Rajala and Kristians Pelss. Even if two of them land in Stockton, five rookies and the youngsters left from last year's team make the Oklahoma City Barons one of the younger teams in the AHL.

If Nelson gets this team deep into the playoffs, a rebuilding NHL team will come calling next spring.

Oilers Trade Values

Derek Zona — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 17:39:21 -0000

Every time a writer here, or a semi-sane person on Twitter suggests trading anything other than spare parts to fill the defensive hole on the Oilers back end, the response is one of yowls and yips. Though a few responses do give in a "let's see who the worst of the four forwards is and trade him" way, fans on the whole believe their players are more valuable than almost any trade target. There's literally nothing some fans would trade Jordan Eberle for - not even Drew Doughty.

So curiosity got the best of me. I'm interested in the estimated value of the Oilers' players and prospects. After the jump, I'll ask for minimum returns for all of them.

Here's the list of contracts on the reserve list, meticulously tracked by Scott, from our front page.

Forwards

Shawn Horcoff
Aleš Hemský
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Taylor Hall
Sam Gagner
Ryan Smyth
Éric Bélanger
Magnus Pääjärvi
Ryan Jones
Jordan Eberle
Ben Eager
Teemu Hartikainen
Darcy Hordichuk
Lennart Petrell
Anton Lander
Linus Omark
Tanner House
Tyler Pitlick
Curtis Hamilton
Ryan Martindale
Mark Arcobello
Chris VandeVelde
Toni Rajala
Philippe Cornet
Antti Tyrväinen
Dane Byers
Cameron Abney
Kristians Pelšs
Nail Yakupov *

Defenders

Ryan Whitney
Justin Schultz
Nick Schultz
Ladislav Šmid
Andy Sutton
Corey Potter
Jeff Petry
Theo Peckham
Oscar Klefbom *
David Musil *
Taylor Fedun
Martin Marincin
Alex Plante
Colten Teubert
Brandon Davidson

Goalies

Nikolai Khabibulin
Devan Dubnyk
Yann Danis
Olivier Roy
Tyler Bunz

* May not count toward 50-Man Reserve List for 2012-13 Season.

I've added Nail Yakupov to the list.

What I'm looking for is a player-by-player account of the bare minimum readers are willing to take for each player. Feel free to copy and paste the whole list into a comment, or just zero in on specific players.

Looking Ahead to the Summer: What Do The Oilers Need?

ryanbatty — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 17:30:01 -0000

The quick/sarcastic answer to the question "What do the Oilers need to add this summer?" is everything. There are certainly some pieces of a good NHL team already in place but after another lottery pick season there are clearly still pieces missing as well. With another first overall selection in this year's entry draft the Oilers will have the opportunity to add another player potentially capable of playing the NHL as early as next season but the team will also be making some additions, or subtractions depending on your point of view, through free agency and trades this summer as they continue the slow and steady rebuilding process.

Using an idea borrowed from the good folks at Defending Big D I take a look at the Oilers overall system after the jump and gaze into my crystal ball a little thinking ahead to the summer to identify what the Oilers need to address through free agency and trades.

Before we get started a couple of quick notes on the depth charts: The salaries listed are the cap hits for next season courtesy of Cap Geek and the year listed is when the contract will end. For those players with bonuses I've included the bonuses as those have to be accounted for under the salary cap. You'll notice some immediate holes in the lineup as I've excluded all players not under contract for next season in order to give a better idea of exactly what holes exist in the Oilers roster.

Up first the forwards.

Left Wing		Centre		Right Wing
Taylor Hall	3.750 (2013)	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	3.775 (2014)	Jordan Eberle	1.158 (2013)
Magnus Paajarvi	1.525 (2013)	-----		Ales Hemsky	5.000 (2014)
Ryan Jones	1.500 (2013)	Shawn Horcoff	5.500 (2015)	-----
-----		Eric Belanger	1.750 (2014)	Ben Eager	1.100 (2014)
In the sysytem
Teemu Hartikainen	0.875 (2013)	Anton Lander	0.900 (2014)	Mark Arcobello	0.900 (2013)
Curtis Hamilton	0.900 (2014)	Tanner House	0.600 (2013)	Tyler Pitlick	0.900 (2014)
Phillipe Cornet	0.580 (2013)	Ryan Martindale	0.690 (2014)	Cameron Abney	0.588 (2014)
Antti Tyrvainen	0.570 (2013)			Toni Rajala	0.816 (2014)

And the forwards set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1 with last season's cap hit for reference:
Ryan Smyth - 6.250
Lennart Petrell - 0.900
Darcy Hordichuk - 0.825
Ryan Keller - 0.625
Josh Green - 0.575

And the soon to be restricted free agents:
Sam Gagner - 2.275
Linus Omark - 0.875
Chris Vande Velde - 0.850
Hunter Tremblay - 0.565
Milan Kytnar - 0.563

It's surprised me in recent seasons to see how few available roster spots there are on a team that finished last, or in this case 29th, the season before. Surprise, surprise, it's the same thing this time around as well with only one spot at each forward position open as it stands right now. Despite the delays in getting his name on a new contract I do think Smyth will return next year, as will Gagner and Petrell which will more or less round out the Oilers lineup making training camp little more than a battle for the 11 through 14 spots on the roster.

As you can no doubt see, there isn't much space for any notable free agent additions unless the Oilers plan to bury a player like Eager, or possibly even Belanger, in the minors. With the slew of forwards that will be looking for new contracts at this time next year that is likely a good thing as it will give the Oilers a little more cap flexibility. If there are going to be changes up front it will likely come in the form of depth additions to the third or fourth lines - much like the Belanger, Eager, and Hordichuk signings last summer - or through a trade.

If the Oilers do go the trade route Omark, Paajarvi, and Gagner (in that order) would be the three I would list as most likely to be moved. Thanks to the team's draft lottery win, the potential addition of Nail Yakupov to the Oilers system gives the team a lot of options when it comes to making trades, especially if the Oilers intend to play him in the NHL next season. All of this make the entry draft and the days leading up to it very interesting for Oilers fans.

Which brings us to the defence.

Left Defence		Right Defence
Ladislav Smid	2.250 (2013)	-----
Ryan Whitney	4.000 (2013)	Nick Schultz	3.500 (2014)
Andy Sutton	1.750 (2013)	Corey Potter	0.775 (2014)
In the system:
Taylor Fedun	0.900 (2013)	Colten Teubert	0.916 (2013)
Martin Marincin	0.900 (2015)

Again the UFAs:
Taylor Chorney - 0.735
Bryan Rodney - 0.525

And the RFAs
Cam Barker - 2.250
Theo Peckham - 1.075
Jeff Petry - 1.000
Alex Plante - 1.075

The Oilers have made it clear that they will be sticking with a 39 year-old Khabibulin for next season and the defence is still the most troubling component of the team's roster as the players already under contract essentially make up the bulk of the Oilers defence from the season that just ended. And for those who might have forgotten, that defence wasn't very good.

If we assume that the Oilers re-sign Petry he will join Smid and Schultz as the only players that can be depended on to playing on the team's top two pairings. A healthy Whitney could make that a group of four but unless his ankle progresses significantly during the offseason depending on him to play even a second pairing role will end very badly for the Oilers. It can't be said enough the Oilers need to add a top pairing defenceman. If a trade partner can't be found then the team will have to go the UFA route or risk the season hoping on Whitney's ankle problems to go away.

If the Oilers are really concerned about Whitney's ankle, and I would be, it would be prudent to add not one but two denfencemen. This would give the Oilers some depth on the blue line in the event that any of the top four get injured and if by some miracle Whitney could get back to what he once was then the Oilers would have an NHL calibre defence for the first time since Tambellini took the reigns.

Lastly let's look at the men between the pipes.

Goalies
-----
Nikolai Khabibulin	4.000 (2013)
In the system:
Olivier Roy	0.700 (2014)
Tyler Bunz	0.618 (2015)

And one last time the UFAs:
Yann Danis - 0.650

And the RFAs:
Devan Dubnyk - 0.800

As much as the fans might like to see something change here nothing will. Dubnyk will be returning as the starting goalie, which is a good thing, and Khabibulin will hang around for the fourth and final year of his contract as the backup, which is a bad thing. The only addition the Oilers will need to make will be on the farm where they will need to either re-sign or find a replacement for Danis, someone who will likely be splitting time with Roy as he moves up to the Barons leaving the starting job in Stockton to Bunz.

If I was a gambling man I'd say the Oilers do very little in free agency this summer. For my money the number one priority is the blue line but that won't be an easy problem to solve. Looking at the overall system what do you think?

2011-12 Edmonton Oilers' Final NHLE - The Defense Has No Offense

Derek Zona — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 05:15:41 -0000

The final month of the season was filled with measured good news:

Oscar Klefbom finally tallied a point. But the bad news is that he's tallied just 4 points in 56 career SEL games. Travis Ewanyk made his debut after recovering from a shoulder injury, but played just 11 games for the Edmonton Oil Kings. Taylor Fedun made meaningful strides in his recovery, but it's possible that he's the best hope for offense from the blue in the future.

For a complete look at all of the Oilers' prospects and their NHL numbers, we can use Gabriel Desjardins' NHL Equivalency. Gabe's methodologies are described on his translations page:

One way to evaluate the difficulty of one league relative to another is to examine the relative performance of players who have played in both leagues. Players rarely play significant time in two leagues in the same year, but they often play in one league in one year and in another the next. As long as a player’s skill level is approximately constant over this two year period, the ratio of his performance in each league can be used to estimate the relative difficulty of the two leagues.

After the jump is the full list of skating prospects with their NHL Equivalency and full season projections.

Player - League	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P
Tobias Rieder	CHL	1/10/93	114	17	17	34
Kellen Jones	NCAA	8/16/90	202	13	21	34
Linus Omark	A, N	2/5/87	97	14	11	25
Toni Rajala	SM-Liiga	3/29/91	101	14	11	25
Teemu Hartikainen	AHL	5/3/90	163	10	13	23
Philippe Cornet	AHL	3/28/90	133	14	7	21
Mark Arcobello	AHL	8/12/88	Und	8	13	21
Kristians Pelss	CHL	9/9/92	181	11	8	19
Drew Czerwonka	CHL	7/1/92	166	8	11	19
Chris VandeVelde	A, N	3/15/87	97	6	7	13
Tyler Pitlick	AHL	11/1/91	31	4	9	13
Antti Tyrvainen	AHL	4/3/89	Und	4	9	13
Milan Kytnar	E,A,N,S	5/19/89	127	5	7	12
Ryan Martindale	E, A	10/27/91	61	3	9	12
Curtis Hamilton	AHL	12/4/91	48	4	5	9
Travis Ewanyk	CHL	3/29/93	74	2	6	8
Cameron Abney	E, A	5/23/91	82	1	2	3

With all of the best recent draft picks in the NHL, the forward group is slightly lacking. While Omark can be counted on for 40 points a season, injuries and mismanagement burned this season, likely his last in the Edmonton organization.
Rieder had an excellent season in the OHL, and outside of the banished Omark, seems like the only possible impact forward in the group right now.
I say "right now" because there remains hope that Pitlick and Hamilton will figure the professional game out some time this summer, and they'll get a second chance because of their relatively young age compared to their draft peers.
Barring a surprise move by Toni Rajala, the Oilers aren't likely to add any forwards from the prospect pool to the AHL team next season.

Player - League	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P
Martin Gernat	CHL	4/11/93	122	4	18	22
Jeremie Blain	CHL	3/19/92	91	4	17	21
Martin Marincin	CHL	2/18/92	46	5	12	17
Kyle Bigos	NCAA	5/12/89	99	4	13	17
Taylor Chorney	A, N	4/27/87	36	4	12	16
Brandon Davidson	CHL	8/21/91	162	4	12	16
Dillon Simpson	NCAA	2/10/93	92	2	14	16
Alex Plante	A, N	5/9/89	15	1	13	14
David Musil	CHL	4/9/93	31	2	8	10
Ryan Lowery	AHL	9/6/88	Und	1	8	9
Kirill Tulupov	AHL	4/23/88	67	1	8	9
Colten Teubert	A, N	3/8/90	13	1	6	7
Kevin Montgomery	AHL	4/4/88	110	1	5	6
Oscar Klefbom	SEL	7/20/93	19	3	0	3
Johan Motin	A, S	10/10/89	103	0	3	3
Taylor Fedun	AHL	32298	Und	Inj	Inj	Inj

For a group being lauded as the next coming, specifically in relation to replacing Tom Gilbert (or Jeff Petry as he replaces Tom Gilbert), there's no offense to speak of. Both Petry and Gilbert were just short of .5 NHLE P/G in their NCAA careers - no one in the above group is better than .27 NHLE P/G. There may be some defensive gems in the group, but at this point it's stretch to project any of them as offensive threats.
Like Pitlick and Hamilton there is home for Klefbom and Simpson, both youngsters playing difficult competition where maturity might be the key to becoming a threat.

Oilers February NHLE - Oscar Klefbom Needs Help

Derek Zona — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 13:30:13 -0000

Oscar Klefbom is either insanely unlucky or insanely bad. His scoresheet totals still show a giant zero. For comparison's sake, Johan Motin has 1 assist in 30 games in the SEL. Motin is a rugged, own-zone only defender. Klefbom is a wizard with puck and passing skills. Something is surely wrong with his season.

For a complete look at all of the Oilers' prospects and their NHL numbers, we can use Gabriel Desjardins' NHL Equivalency. Gabe's methodologies are described on his translations page:

One way to evaluate the difficulty of one league relative to another is to examine the relative performance of players who have played in both leagues. Players rarely play significant time in two leagues in the same year, but they often play in one league in one year and in another the next. As long as a player’s skill level is approximately constant over this two year period, the ratio of his performance in each league can be used to estimate the relative difficulty of the two leagues.

After the jump is the full list of skating prospects with their NHL Equivalency and full season projections.

Player - League	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P	Change
Linus Omark	AHL	2/5/87	97	12	22	34	-7
Kellen Jones	NCAA	8/16/90	202	13	21	34	5
Tobias Rieder	CHL	1/10/93	114	16	15	31	0
Toni Rajala	SM-Liiga	3/29/91	101	14	11	25	-2
Philippe Cornet	AHL	3/28/90	133	17	8	25	-1
Mark Arcobello	AHL	8/12/88	Und	8	15	23	2
Teemu Hartikainen	AHL	5/3/90	163	11	11	22	-2
Drew Czerwonka	CHL	7/1/92	166	8	11	19	0
Kristians Pelss	CHL	9/9/92	181	10	8	18	1
Ryan Martindale	ECHL	10/27/91	61	5	7	12	-1
Tyler Pitlick	AHL	11/1/91	31	4	7	11	1
Antti Tyrvainen	AHL	4/3/89	Und	3	8	11	1
Chris VandeVelde	AHL	3/15/87	97	3	7	10	-1
Curtis Hamilton	AHL	12/4/91	48	4	5	9	0
Travis Ewanyk	CHL	3/29/93	74	0	8	8	-
Cameron Abney	ECHL	5/23/91	82	2	3	5	0

"NHLE is stupid!", they said. "Kellen Jones will never score 30 in the NHL!" "Calm down," I said. "Conference play is around the corner," thinking he would get torn up in conference. Kellen Jones - 11 points in his last 8 games. Either Little Scrappy has some game or NHLE is broken.
Except for Jones, who jumped from 29 to 34, the forward group is in the midst of a three-month slide. The "incredible prospect depth" narrative may be overdone.

Player	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P	Change
Jeremie Blain	CHL	3/19/92	91	4	18	22	0
Martin Gernat	CHL	4/11/93	122	4	18	22	0
Kyle Bigos	NCAA	5/12/89	99	5	15	20	0
Taylor Chorney	AHL	4/27/87	36	3	15	18	1
Brandon Davidson	CHL	8/21/91	162	5	12	17	1
Martin Marincin	CHL	2/18/92	46	4	12	16	2
Dillon Simpson	NCAA	2/10/93	92	1	14	15	-1
Alex Plante	AHL	5/9/89	15	1	12	13	-1
David Musil	CHL	4/9/93	31	2	9	11	2
Colten Teubert	AHL	3/8/90	13	2	7	9	-4
Ryan Lowery	AHL	9/6/88	Und	1	8	9	0
Kirill Tulupov	AHL	4/23/88	67	1	8	9	1
Kevin Montgomery	AHL	4/4/88	110	1	7	8	-1
Oscar Klefbom	SEL	7/20/93	19	0	0	0	0
Taylor Fedun	AHL	6/4/88	Und	Inj	Inj	Inj	-

Oscar Klefbom is either the world's most unlucky defenseman or he has no idea where the offensive zone is. 30 games without a point is kind of crazy for a guy purported to have sublime puck-moving ability.
Oklahoma City fans should get used to hearing Kyle Bigos' name. He's going to arrive as soon as Merrimack is eliminated and he's going to be featured early and often next season. If he is a 20 point NHL defenseman, he's going to be a 40 point AHL defenseman. At 6'5, 230 pounds.

Top 25 Under 25 - Winter 2012 - Final Rankings

Scott Reynolds — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 18:30:19 -0000

We're now through the fifth installment of the Top 25 Under 25, and in just two and a half years, I know that I've learned some pretty valuable things. I've learned that it's too easy to get excited about how well a guy is performing in the CHL, that even a team like the Oilers which has been stockpiling high picks can look awfully suspect once you move out of the top five or ten guys, and that generally respectable colleagues can hold very different views on which of these prospects deserves a higher ranking. We'll take a look at everyone's complete list after the jump.

The chart below shows each writer's individual rankings as well as the overall list. With seven us making the rankings, it's much easier to move around on the former than the latter, and in fact, the top seven is exactly the same overall as it was last time even though each and every individual made some changes. All 44 players under consideration are listed, and the columns are sortable; just click on the header row that you'd like to see and you're ready to go.

Overall	Player	Ben	Bruce	DB	Derek	Jon	Ryan	Scott
1	Taylor Hall	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	3	2	3	3	2	3	2
3	Jordan Eberle	4	3	2	6	3	2	3
4	Sam Gagner	2	4	4	2	4	4	4
5	Magnus Paajarvi	6	6	5	5	5	6	5
6	Jeff Petry	5	5	10	4	6	5	6
7	Linus Omark	9	11	6	7	7	7	7
8	Oscar Klefbom	7	9	9	9	8	8	8
9	Teemu Hartikainen	12	8	7	11	9	9	9
10	Anton Lander	14	7	8	10	12	11	11
11	Martin Marincin	10	10	15	12	13	12	10
12	Tyler Pitlick	16	12	18	8	15	10	16
13	Colten Teubert	18	13	12	16	11	14	13
14	David Musil	17	14	19	14	10	13	14
15	Theo Peckham	8	16	11	20	16	17	17
16	Curtis Hamilton	11	17	21	17	14	15	15
17	Dillon Simpson	23	26	20	13	18	16	12
18	Tyler Bunz	19	15	13	26	17	26	24
19	Olivier Roy	15	20	17	21	23	27	25
20	Tobias Rieder	20	19	30	18	20	20	23
21	Brandon Davidson	29	18	16	23	27	18	21
22	Alex Plante	21	22	14	32	25	24	22
23	Kyle Bigos	22	27	25	15	29	23	20
24	Jeremie Blain	24	25	26	22	28	22	18
25	Martin Gernat	31	23	22	33	19	19	19
26	Taylor Fedun	30	24	24	19	21	21	29
27	Taylor Chorney	13	31	23	30	33	30	30
28	Ryan Martindale	25	37	27	29	26	25	26
29	Ryan O'Marra	26	21	42	42	22	31	34
30	Milan Kytnar	32	34	29	31	32	34	31
31	Samu Perhonen	39	36	31	37	24	28	28
32	Philippe Cornet	40	38	28	27	31	36	32
33	Antti Tyrvainen	33	40	33	43	30	29	27
34	Chris VandeVelde	27	30	43	28	35	38	35
35	Frans Tuohimaa	35	35	34	25	34	37	37
36	Toni Rajala	34	39	35	24	38	32	36
37	Drew Czerwonka	41	29	36	36	36	33	33
38	Kristians Pelss	37	33	37	40	37	35	38
39	Travis Ewanyk	36	28	39	39	41	40	41
40	Johan Motin	28	41	32	38	42	42	42
41	Mark Arcobello	42	32	40	35	39	39	39
42	Kellen Jones	38	42	38	41	40	41	40
43	Alexander Bumagin	44	44	41	34	43	43	44
44	Cameron Abney	43	43	44	44	44	44	43

As always, we're most interested in hearing about where you think we went wrong, and to get that conversation started, let's look at each ranker's unique selections:

Ben: I'm convinced that having Taylor Chorney at #13 is more Ben making a point about everyone ranked below Chorney than it is Ben making a point about Chorney himself. Ben thinks the Oilers' prospects suck. There's no other explanation. Other notables: Theo Peckham at #8; Anton Lander at #14; Johan Motin at #28.

Bruce: If you're a marginal prospect, the key to success in Bruce's eyes is playing in the WHL where it's easy for him to get some look-sees in order to justify liking you. Bruce is a good person. He likes people. So just give him a reason. Travis Ewanyk did it. Drew Czerwonka did it. But Dillon Simpson went to college, so Bruce showed him the error of his ways by knocking him all the way down to #26. Other notables: Linus Omark at #11; Ryan O'Marra at #21; Mark Arcobello at #32.

DB: As a new member to our group, I appreciate the way that DB went out of his way to piss Derek off by ranking Chris VandeVelde at #43. Good work. Other notables: Jeff Petry at #10; Alex Plante at #14; Tobias Rieder at #30.

Derek: Derek has his favorites, but sometimes I think he likes to be contrary for the hell of it. How else to explain Alexander Bumagin's surge up the rankings? After placing him in 47th (of 48) last time, Bumagin clocks in at #34 this time. What changed? Derek's disdain for you if your favorite prospect is ranked at #35 or lower. Other notables: Toni Rajala at #24; Frans Tuohimaa at #25; Alex Plante at #32.

Jon: When it comes to goalies, it's awfully hard to get a read on how good they are at a young age. Jonathan's ranking of Samu Perhonen at #24 suggests that draft position is a pretty major part of his decision-making process. Other notables: David Musil at #10; Ryan O'Marra at #22; Taylor Chorney at #33.

Ryan: It's his first time writing for the Top 25, and he knows that all the hip kids hate goalies, so he made sure to rank the two best goalies in the system lower than everybody else. Cool factor = 10. Other notables: Nope, it's pretty much just the goalies.

Scott: My rankings are all excellent. I don't know why people dislike Jeremie Blain so much all of a sudden or why Antti Tyrvainen isn't regarded as having real NHL potential, or why Derek and I are the only ones who really believe in Dillon Simpson. These people are crazy.

Oilers January NHLE - Scoring Depth Has Disappeared

Derek Zona — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:46:37 -0000

When we tallied up the final NHLE numbers for the 2010-11 season, the Oilers had seven forward prospects with an equivalency of 30 points or better and that didn't include Tyler Pitlick or Teemu Hartikainen. This season, the scoring depth has disappeared. Linus Omark will still score 40-50 points a season in th NHL for someone, but Robby Dee, Liam Reddox and Alexei Mikhnov all moved on. The remaining prospects have somehow simultaneously fallen into a slump.

For a complete look at all of the Oilers' prospects and their NHL numbers, we can use Gabriel Desjardins' NHL Equivalency. Gabe's methodologies are described on his translations page:

One way to evaluate the difficulty of one league relative to another is to examine the relative performance of players who have played in both leagues. Players rarely play significant time in two leagues in the same year, but they often play in one league in one year and in another the next. As long as a player’s skill level is approximately constant over this two year period, the ratio of his performance in each league can be used to estimate the relative difficulty of the two leagues.

After the jump is the full list of skating prospects with their NHL Equivalency and full season projections.

Player	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P	Change
Linus Omark	AHL	2/5/87	97	5	36	41	0
Tobias Rieder	CHL	1/10/93	114	17	14	31	3
Kellen Jones	NCAA	8/16/90	202	9	20	29	1
Toni Rajala	SM-Liiga	3/29/91	101	15	12	27	-8
Philippe Cornet	AHL	3/28/90	133	19	7	26	1
Teemu Hartikainen	AHL	5/3/90	163	12	12	24	1
Mark Arcobello	AHL	8/12/88	Und	7	14	21	3
Milan Kytnar	ECHL	5/19/89	127	11	8	19	0
Drew Czerwonka	CHL	7/1/92	166	8	11	19	-1
Kristians Pelss	CHL	9/9/92	181	9	8	17	0
Ryan O'Marra	AHL	3/29/91	15	7	9	16	1
Ryan Martindale	ECHL	10/27/91	61	5	8	13	-2
Chris VandeVelde	AHL	3/15/87	97	3	8	11	0
Tyler Pitlick	AHL	11/1/91	31	4	6	10	-1
Antti Tyrvainen	AHL	4/3/89	Und	3	7	10	-4
Curtis Hamilton	AHL	12/4/91	48	4	5	9	-2
Cameron Abney	ECHL	5/23/91	82	2	3	5	0
Travis Ewanyk	CHL	3/29/93	74	Inj	Inj	Inj	Inj

The other 30-point forwards - Anton Lander, Curtis Hamilton, Ryan Martindale - have collapsed. Hamilton and Martindale moved into the professional ranks and haven't been able to adjust. Anton Lander was rushed to the NHL and has struggled.
Tobias Rieder, #20 in our Top 25 Under 25, has stepped into the void with an NHLE of 31. Through improvement or attrition, Rieder is now the best goal-scoring prospect in the organization.
Though Hartikainen hasn't dominated the NHL as expected, his play hasn't fallen off - his NHLE of 24 is a point better than his 2010-11 season-ending total.

Player	League	DOB	Drafted	NHL82 G	NHL82 A	NHL82 P	Change
Martin Gernat	CHL	4/11/93	122	5	17	22	3
Jeremie Blain	CHL	3/19/92	91	5	17	22	2
Kyle Bigos	NCAA	5/12/89	99	5	15	20	0
Taylor Chorney	AHL	4/27/87	36	4	13	17	-2
Dillon Simpson	NCAA	2/10/93	92	1	15	16	1
Brandon Davidson	CHL	8/21/91	162	4	12	16	-2
Alex Plante	AHL	5/9/89	15	1	13	14	0
Martin Marincin	CHL	2/18/92	46	4	10	14	0
Colten Teubert	AHL	3/8/90	13	4	9	13	1
Kevin Montgomery	AHL	4/4/88	110	1	8	9	1
Ryan Lowery	AHL	9/6/88	Und	1	8	9	-1
David Musil	CHL	4/9/93	31	0	9	9	-2
Kirill Tulupov	AHL	4/23/88	67	0	8	8	-1
Oscar Klefbom	SEL	7/20/93	19	0	0	0	0
Taylor Fedun	AHL	6/4/88	Und	Inj	Inj	Inj	Inj

Though there are three first-round picks and three second-round picks on the blueline in the organization, the leading scorers are a pair of fourth-round picks and a fifth-round pick. Gernat and Blain are still years away, but Bigos may be close to contributing at the NHL level.
Oscar Klefbom still doesn't have a point on the season. At some point he has to accidentally get an assist off of his skate, right?
Dillon Simpson's totals have increased through each month of the season. Beginning with October, his totals have been 0 --> 12 --> 15 -->16.