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Flames Game Day: Stubborn

Robert Cleave — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:57:41 -0000

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Good old "rock". Nothing beats "rock", right Darryl? That's right, Brent. That "paper" stuff's just a myth.

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Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings

Pengrowth Saddledome

7:30 PM MT

Opposition: Battle of California

TV: TSN

There has to be a point where even the most mulish type has to accept reality, right? Where the evidence reaches a level that can't be ignored? Where the willingness to deny what everyone else is seeing just can't be sustained?

Apparently, for Brent Sutter, that time isn't quite here yet, at least when considering the effectiveness of his two highest paid forwards. Tonight, the Flames will take on the Kings with an unchanged approach, hoping for different results.

I don't know how long the Flames can carry on with a first group that does so poorly in terms of creating chances, but from the sounds of it, there are no new ideas. Eric Nystrom will work with Jokinen and Iginla, in the belief that making the same mistake repeatedly will wear down the opposition, I suppose. As Kent showed earlier today, not much good is going on for the big two at the moment, and the only answer I can come up with is that the team thinks that Jarome Iginla's hot-shooting November is reality, and everything else is noise. I had a look at the numbers with about 5 minutes left on Tuesday, and I noticed that the trio had managed one shot on goal at EV to that juncture. One. Since I didn't notice that they were facing the '77 Habs at the time, I hope you'll understand why that might strike me as substandard. I don't know what the level of play would have to look like for a change to be made, so I'll presume that it simply doesn't exist absent other evidence.

That leaves the others to pick up the slack, with the Bourque-Langkow-Dawes trio reunited. That's good, I guess, but they can't reasonably be expected to carry this team for an extended period. That does appear to be their lot, however, and at least they look the part more nights than not. I'd still prefer that two of those gents were working with the captain, but as I've mentioned, that's fantasy stuff.

Further down the roster, the normally excellent Glencross, Conroy and Moss had a stinker by their standards in St. Loo, and again, if a team's depth is expected to carry it, that can't happen too often. I wonder how healthy Conroy's wrist is, because there have been a few occasions in the last couple of games where he didn't take a faceoff. As for the fourth line, it seems that Brent Sutter decided to channel Bruce Boudreau's "what good is he" moment by asking McG to watch this evening's encounter from the press box, rather than the bench. There's better popcorn up there, I'm certain. Dustin Boyd resumes his now-regular role of fourth liner, until the Flames need a goal, at which point he becomes the 1LW. It just seems wrong.

On the back end, one of the wounded could return, as Adam Pardy is supposedly now a solid maybe for the evening, in lieu of Kronwall. He won't hurt, and the trust level the team has in him will permit the Flames to spread some of the workload around. Playing the top 4 as much as the Flames have this week isn't a good plan in the long-term.

Kipper will go, and on that note, since I completely forgot this last night, here are his 5 v 5 numbers for the week:

Atlanta 1-19, Minnesota 1-32, Colorado 2-17, season 38-637, 940 SV%.

He's about all that's keeping the Flames from mediocrity, and he earned them a point that had nothing to do with the play of the skaters versus the Wild.

The Kings are rolling right now, going 8-1-1 in the last ten, and sit in a spot they haven't seen in a fair piece. They've managed all this with significant injuries, with the list including Stoll, Jones, Johnson, Simmonds and Smyth. We've seen the Kings a couple of times in recent days, so I don't think there are too many mysteries. They can score a bit, they do a good job of keeping the 5 v 5 shots down, and Jonathan Quick has given them just enough to get the Kings into first in their division. They still struggle on special teams, but lord knows the Flames don't scare anyone in that part of the game, either, so it might not hurt them.

Tonight, given how banged up L.A. is, the Flames should be able to get this. As I've said, I despair of the long term prospects for Iggy and Joker, but if they want to prove me and a few others wrong, the Kings might be ripe. Whether the Flames get the offence going or not, the shots have to come down, because 30-40 a night won't do at all.

Game time is 7:30 on TSN.

Misconceptions

R O — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:01:42 -0000

I stopped writing regularly for this blog a few weeks ago because of work. Many a night now spent at the computer, but not watching hockey. So in the most recent post-game, when I was asked to explain what Pythagorean expectation meant, well I wasn't going to answer. For one, I don't have that much free time to spare these days, and for two, why reinvent the wheel, right? This is the age of Google, after all.

But I can't let a comment like this go:

Good Lord I didn’t realize that a teams projected point total based on their GF and GA was related to the equation for solving the hypotenuse of a right triangle (surely you know the formula a^2 +b^2 = c^2). The Pythagorean Point Equation eh?

Please explain this formula to me R O. You posted the link so you should be willing to back it up. Maybe you could complete a derivation of it so I can gain a better understanding. Or you could complete an uncertainty analysis based on the projected point totals and actual point totals of all thirty teams using their GF and GA (I will explain this if needed) to prove that it isn’t complete bogus

Two things:

1.) My personal belief, which Kent may not share (this is his blog after all), is that commenters who want to move the conversation forward should be ready and expected to do some legwork themselves. There are a ton of resources out there (www.nhl.com, www.behindthenet.ca, www.hockeyanalytics.com, etc. etc.) and Microsoft Excel is also your friend here.

2.) Asking why P% can be predicted by an a^2 + b^2 = c^2 formula is missing the forest for the trees. Again, my belief (and one that Kent may not share as well) is that this whole hockey-stats movement is not about glorifying seemingly meaningless numbers. It's about gaining insight into hockey - measuring what's important, seeing what drives success, and more importantly, what doesn't drive success.

So the right question to ask isn't "why does a^2 + b^2 = c^2 predict points percentage"?? The right question to ask is "is it really possible to predict how often you pick up points simply by looking at how often you score and how often you get scored on"??

Because, folks, if this is possible, then BIG GOALS and BIG SAVES are mirages.

Pythagorean formula: Points% = GF^2 / ( GF^2 + GA^2 )

I was asked what the origins of the Pythagorean point expectation was. I believe its origins are in baseball, and as far as I know it's an empirical equation. Basically some sharp guys decided that they ought to take runs scored for and against and try and map it to wins, and the Pythagorean formula fit best.

Alan Ryder of HockeyAnalytics did some research on a more improved model for goals->wins. Some really crazy stuff, you can check it out here under "Probability Models". The point is not the model though, it's the assumption he made: goals are rare, uniformly random and memory-less.

Read that again.

Goals are rare.

Goals are uniformly random.

Goals are memory-less.

Alan Ryder did a quick check that suggests with a high degree of convincing-ness that the above is true, except for in the first minute of each period and the last minute of the third period. There are some conjectures as to why these exceptions occur (the last minute of the game is empty-net time, the first minute of each period contains less time spent in the zone during PPs) but the exceptions are less interesting than the main result.

For you see, if goals really are rare, and uniformly random, and memory-less, then there's not very much real estate for the BIG GOAL and BIG SAVE to coexist with regular, boring hockey truth. No matter how much a skater might elevate his game to the level of CLUTCH or how well a goalie just makes BIG SAVE after BIG SAVE because he wants to win more, goals keep getting scored and saves made in the same measures, minute after minute after boring minute.

And this ties in to Pythagorean expectation quite well. Because sometimes you look at a team that just keeps on winning, but without the goal differential to back it up. For example, the Avs. And their troll fans will come to you after winning against your team despite playing like garbage, and when you point that out one of the usual retorts is "we found a way to win" or "we scored a big goal and our goalie made some big saves".

And that, friends, is absolute grade-A bullshit. Because point percentage can be modeled by the Pythagorean expectation. And even more important, point percentage can be modeled by randomly distributing goals scored for and against over 82 games.

Observe:

The red dots are true points% for the 120 post-lockout team seasons. By "true points" I mean 2 points for a win (regulation or OT), 0 points for a loss (regulation or OT), 1 point for a tie. Shootouts and loser points are gone, the model doesn't account for that. And before anybody says anything, you can augment the model to account for shootouts by adding a coinflip component in the case of ties. See point 1.) above about legwork.

The blue line is what the Pythagorean expectation predicts. Pretty straight down the middle eh? I didn't calculate R^2 or what not, that doesn't really interest me - more insight can be gained by the green dots.

The green dots, ah the green dots, these are points %'s from simulations that I did for every team season. Basically I took the GF and GA of each team-season and randomly distributed them (with uniform distribution) over 82 games. Did that 500 times per team season, calculated the point %, put it on the plot.

You see? EVERY team season in the post-lockout is well within the range that one would expect from a parallel universe where there was no dispute about BIG GOALS or BIG SAVES - where goals are scored when they are scored and goalies make saves as best they can and we don't ever talk about clutch or elevating your game.

Maybe, just maybe, that parallel universe is this one.

Calgary Flames Scoring Chances - Rates and States

Kent Wilson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:39:56 -0000

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Now that we're a third of the way through the season and the SC numbers are starting to pile up, we can start applying some minor tweaks to make them more meaningful. Primary among which is to look at rates or the efficiency with which players are generating (or preventing) scoring chances while they're on the ice. We know, for instance, that Curtis Glencross leads the team in SC differential so far, but that doesn't take into account his ice time. Like even strength points per 60 (ESP/60), looking at each players rates will gives a better idea what's happening while he's on the ice. First, let's look at each guys totals, differentials, ice-time and corresponoding /60 rates.

The big table:

Here we have: chances for (EV+), chances against (EV -), gross differential (EV diff), chance for/against ratio (EV Ratio), even strength ice-time (EV Ice) and the resultant per 60 rates. The list is sorted by chance differential/60 minutes of ice (final column).

Observations

- Curtis Glencross is a ridiculously good by this measure. No one even touches his +6.68/60 rate on the club. He leads the team at both preventing and generating scoring chances so far.

- Jokinen rate of -4.7 chances/60 is positively ghastly. Even McGrattan, Sjostorm and Prust aren't liabilities to the same extent.

- Keep in mind circumstances when evaluating these stats. Pardy and Kronwall are highly sheltered, for instance. Glencross is kicking butt, but he also sees a lot of third liners and more offensive zone draws than, say, Bourque or Langkow.

- Boyd's corsi number isn't impressive this year, but he seems to be outperforming it thus far. Although he tends to spend more time in the defensive zone, he manages to be pretty efficient in terms of generating scoring chances. Although, one wonders how much that first 10 games stretch where he was playing with Glencross and Conroy is skewing things.

Chances for - Comparing the Forwards

I thought it might be interesting to look at scoring chance rate stat that best matches each position's (theoretical) responsibility. For example, forwards are primarily concerned with generating scoring chances. On the other hand, defenders are primarily concerned with preventing them. As such, let's see who has the best rates at either end of the spectrum. First, the forwards:

Keep in mind, this is the rate at which each player generates chances while he's on the ice at ES (X/60 minutes). Items of interest:

- Bourque places third behind leaders Conroy and Glencross, despite much tougher circumstances. Effing stud.

- Jarome Iginla is more than 1 chance/60 better than Jokinen despite spending most of his time with the big fin this year. One wonders what the difference would be if the two were separated. On that note, Jokinen only hovers above grinders and goons in terms of SC efficiency. And while he sees much tougher opponents, he also plays with guys like Iginla, Dawes etc.

- Moss is underperforming by this measure relative to expectations I'd say. Part of that was starting the year on the wing with Jarome and Jokinen and part of that was his post-injury malaise. Hopefully he can get back on the horse.

- Prust's rate is surprisingly high, but sample size is an issue. He's only played 143 ES minutes this year.

Chances Against - Comparing the Defensemen

This is something of an extension of my summer project to determine true defensive effects of individual blueliners. During the off-season, I calculated "shots at the net / 60" with each Flame defender on the ice - the theory being that good defenders would allow less shots at their net than poor ones. In that study, I found that Dion Phaneuf was the worst Flames defender last season with a 51.2 shots/60 rate being well above every other rear guard else on the team.

This follows along the same lines, except for scoring chances (those being the more dangerous shots):

Keep in mind, this is scoring chances against per 60 minutes of even strength ice. Items of interest:

- Yup, Cory Sarich stunk when he was in the line-up. Sometimes numbers and subjective evaluations do line-up perfectly. It remains to be determined whether his struggles were a result of playing through injury or not.

- Phanuef and Regehr have been much higher event than Giordano and Bouwmeester thus far. To the tune of almost 3 chances/60. That's no doubt partially from spending more time behind Iginla and Jokinen against other teams top players (although the difference between quality of competition and zone starts between the two pairings is fairly marginal). Can we conclude that the difference is a mixture of circumstances and Bouwmeester (and Gio!) being just that good?

- Ignore Kronwall's number. He faces nobodies and he's played less 100 ES minutes this season.

That's it for now. This stuff will be interesting to pursue as the season matures no doubt.

December 17 News and Notes

Robert Cleave — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:09:18 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Sigh.

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Sir, Saturday morning, although recurring at regular and well-foreseen intervals, always seems to take this railway by surprise.

W.S. Gilbert

That's kind of where I'm at today, because I knew I was doing this bit, and yet here I am going on midnight still pissing around, so let's get to it. This week, the Flames hit a pothole, there's off-ice news from the Monterey Peninsula, and Canada sets its WJHC roster.

Flames:

They have some issues, no? Can't really count on the alleged top line, back-up goalie isn't that good, missing a couple of defencemen, it's been a rough week. I'm not going to rehash things any more except to say that Joker and Iggy have played, counting last season, almost 60 games together. It isn't working. It's long past time to move on. I have no expectation of that happening, of course, since the boss ascribes the problems to a general lack of effort. Having a first line worthy of the name might be a bigger issue, but the Flames will likely get around to acknowledging that fact next July when they don't resign Joker, and not before. It's a sad case.

Struggling is the way of the organization right now, as Jim Playfair has chosen to shake a few things up in Abby. The good news is that Matt Keetley has had some decent outings as of late, but he and Irving aren't getting much help from the offence. Mikael Backlund has hit a slump, with 1 point in the last 7, although he has the full endorsement of his old pal Patrik Berglund. Given that Berglund can't break an egg right now, his words might be construed as sympathy pains as much as anything.

Off-ice, the Flames might yet be in line for an outdoor extravaganza, and Peter Maher hinted this afternoon that it would be on Hockey Day in Canada rather than New Year's Day due to logistical reasons. Should have it had this past week, because, really, what's a bit of -30 weather between friends?

Elsewhere:

Up the road, the Oil have actually done OK in the standings with Hemsky and Khabibulin on the shelf. The Russian 'keeper's bad back has the usual tongues wagging regarding the Oilers' approach to due diligence, and this week brings news of analgesic injections to ease the pain. You know, Mike Rathje has been on LTIR for three years now. Just sayin'.

Tuesday night's loss to L.A. left Pat Quinn in a foul mood after the game, but he really shouldn't worry about things too much, what with his next career already laid out. Good luck, coach. Watching Patrick O'Sullivan would drive anyone to a binge or two.

David Koci looks like he'll join the list of this season's villains after running Mike Green Tuesday night in Denver. I suspect you'll be unsurprised to note that this bit from Bruce Boudreau has my approval:

Let's be honest, if this was (a competitive) game, (Koci) gets on the ice in the first three minutes, he gets into his fight with a guy, and then he sits at the end of the bench, and that's it. So what good is he?

Good thing Brent Sutter doesn't take that sort of approach with the Flames' roster, isn't it? At least Green doesn't appear to be too badly damaged at this point.

The general topic of player safety did come up at the Board of Governors' meetings in Pebble Beach, with a move afoot to draft a proposal regarding head shots for the Competition Committee to review this spring. As always, a rule is only as good as the enforcement.

The BOG meetings also had the usual discussion regarding a few franchises' financial status. Charles Wang is still playing the waiting game with the Town of Hempstead while exploring options that might include teaming with the NBA's New Jersey Nets. Dominik from Lighthouse Hockey reviews some of this as he ponders the willingness of the Islanders to add salary next year if some teams are cap-squeezed enough to move good players. If the Islanders ever get their arena situation squared away, that 30 million-ish TV deal they have will enable them go from the salary floor to the cap a lot quicker than most bottom-dwellers.

The other main topic of discussion on the shores of Monterey Bay was, of course, the Coyotes. Ice Edge's bid is proceeding through channels, and the principals are making noises with regard to potential profitability within our lifetimes. Let's see the colour of their money before penciling in those games in 'Toon Town for next season, shall we? Maybe they could invite this gent into their group? You never know when that sort of skill will come in handy.

The now-annual spectacle of sad, sleepy-eyed kids being herded toward a row of cameras played out Wednesday morning as Canada announced its final cuts to the roster for the 2010 World Junior Hockey Championship. Flame '08 first rounder Greg Nemisz of the powerhouse Windsor Spitfires joins his team mates Adam Henrique, Taylor Hall and Ryan Ellis on the squad. Good on him. Brandon Kozun and Martin Jones of the Hitmen also made the grade.

Finally this week, the Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh is hosting its last season of NHL hockey this winter, as the Penguins move to their new digs next fall. The good people of the Pensblog are always willing to be creative in the service of their hometown, and their innovative proposals to address the city's financial woes are suffused with the sort of earnest public spirit that all of us on the 'tubes should aspire to. That, or bicker with A2Y, I'm good either way.

Have a good one, and as always, the comments are open for things of interest that you've noticed.

Flames @ Blues Post-Game - Flames Heavy Lifters Need Some 'Roids

Kent Wilson — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:03:31 -0000

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"We have to find a way very quickly to get it back. We took our foot off the pedal in the third period and made some mental mistakes."

That's Brent Sutter with the press after last night's contest. And I hate to disagree with the Flames coach (well...not really; I tend to be fairly disagreeable), but the Flames never really had their foot "on the pedal" so to speak last night. They were out-shot and out-chanced in every single period. The third just happened to be the worst of the bunch. Implicit in this quote is the assumption that the Flames played 40 minutes of good hockey and tripped over their own feet down the home stretch. They didn't, but the relative quality between the first half and the last half skewed perceptions of the team's efforts after the fact. See also: the anchoring effect.

In short, the Flames were about as poor in this game as they were in the last two losses. In fact, in many ways this was Calgary's worst contest in recent memory at ES. Two of of the Flames top 3 lines had their heads beat in by the opposition - par for the course when it comes to Iggy and Jokinen this year, but a rare poor evening out of Moss, Glencross and Conroy. Had the Langkow unit not shown up for the party, the Flames would have been blown out of the water.

A poor three game stretch isn't necessarily something to panic over. Teams lose three games in a row all the time. What's perhaps concerning is the manner in which the Flames are losing however - not only are they bowing to ostensibly inferior teams, they are getting legitimately out-classed all over the ice. In addition, issues that have plagued the club all year are finally beginning to show up in the teams results - that is the lack of shots on net and the relatively poor ES (and PP) performance of the "#1" scoring unit. Hidden by good goaltending a rash of favorable bounces to start the year, things have begun to regress to the mean and the Flames have looked decidedly worse than ordinary as a result.

What's perhaps most unnerving for Flames fans is that the decision-makers behind the bench don't seem to see the problems.

"To be honest, I think it’s something mentally right now," said coach Brent Sutter, following the game. ‘There’s been so much talk, ‘oh, they’re not scoring goals, they’re not scoring goals’. All of sudden when that happens, then we’re doing some things we shouldn’t be doing.

"We’re pushing, forcing certain situations instead of staying with our game, sticking with our game. If we win games 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, whatever . . . so be it. It’s the bottom line. It’s a process you go through to get a victory at the end of the night. We’ve gotten off track on our process and we have to get it back."

There's a lot of garbled coach-speak in there, so it's all very vague but none of it is comforting to me. Is it a mental thing plaguing the Flames right now? Really? Perhaps you can put the Conroy lines lackluster effort down to something transient like "lack of focus" (since they typically beat up the competition), but Iginla and Jokinen have been playing like this for most of the year. That suggests not an acute condition but a chronic one. And until the conditions change around their deployment, I can't imagine things improving all that much: a team can only win for so long with the grinders and pluggers dragging the big guns along by the ears.

If Halak Could Be On The Move, It May Be Due To Cedrick Desjardins Continuing To Defy The Odds In Hamilton

Robert L — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:53:43 -0000

When Canadiens fans consider the top prospects in the organization the first thoughts usually center around pivot Louis Leblanc, who was cut today from the Team Canada junior camp. Other names crop up, such as defensemen P.K. Subban and Yannick weber as well as center Ben Maxwell, but a name often overlooked and seldom caught on the radar is goaltender Cedrick Desjardins, currently burning up the AHL statistically.

Desjardins is the subject of a column today by Mathias Brunet of La Presse, who reports that the Bulldogs stopper is on fire of late, having surrendered but one goal in his last four games.

Call it food for thought, but could this be why Jaroslav Halak trade rumours are heating up at the moment?

Consider the following: Desjardins' record is 8-4-1-4 with a 1.45 GAA. His save percentage is .944, second best in the AHL behind Dallas Stars prospect Brent Krahn. He recently came within minutes of topping a 1957 Johnny Bower AHL record for consecutive shutout minutes.

Those are the kind of numbers that turn heads in a league!

For Canadiens' fans unacquainted with Desjardins, it may be due to the fact that he was a somewhat unheralded free agent signing in 2006. After getting his start with the Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL during the Sydney Crosby era, Desjardins moved on the Patrick Roy's Quebec Remparts, winning the Memorial Cup in 2006.

He has come a long way from being drafted 200th overall by the Halifax Mooseheads of the Q in 2002. His first season in junior has hardly a success, winning only one of 23 games he appeared in.

By the 2004-05 season, he had moved on to Rimouski, earning the starters job. It was a season of growth playing alongside Crosby, and the Oceanic made it all the way to the Memorial Cup final, which they lost to the powerhouse London Knights 4-0.

At 20 years of age, and undrafted at the NHL level, Desjardins did not despair in his search for a professional contract. He signed on with Roy's Remparts as an overaged junior, and Quebec rode his hot hand all the way to the league championship, which was lost in six games to the Moncton Wildcats. As Moncton for the host team for the Memorial Cup that season, Desjardins and the Remparts, as finalists, were given a bye into the Canadian junior final round robin.

It was there that Desjardins truly made a lasting impression, as he guided the underdog Remparts to the Memorial Cup title. He was stellar under the gun in the final game as the Wildcats fired 48 shots in his direction, beating him only twice as Quebec cruised to a 6-2 upset.

Later that summer, Desjardins was invited to the Chicago Blackhawks training camp, but eventually signed a contract to play with the Hamilton Bulldogs.

With goalies Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak, Cristobal Huet and Yann Danis all ahead him on the Canadiens depth chart in goal, Desjardins was assigned to the ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones in October of 2006. He was twice called to Hamilton first replacing Halak when he was called up to Montreal and a second time upon the trade of Huet to Washington.

In 2008, following the Bulldogs missing the playoffs, he was returned to the Cyclones just in time to lead them all the way to the Kelly Cup title in 2008.

Like he done in the Quebec league prior, Desjardins was once again named playoff MVP.

Last season, desjardins split time in Hamilton with veteran Marc Denis and has shared the load this season with Curtis Sanford.

A high point in his career in the Canadiens organization came at the Habs' camp in 2008, when he was put in goal for the third period of an exhibition game against the Detroit Red Wings. Desjardins allowed no goals in his 25 minutes of play including overtime, and promptly shut the door on the Wings snipers in the shootout in backstopping the Habs to the win.

The 24 year old from Edmunston, New Brunswick has made a career of defying the odds against him. From Brunet's La Presse article, current Bulldogs coach Guy Boucher had this this to say:

Everywhere Cedrick has played, he was tagged as the goalie who most assumed would not lead. He was the guy in nets by default or circumstance. With the Oceanic, he came into the team plans as a third string goalie but performed well enough to play regularly. In time, he became the starter, but we weren't sure of winning with him, so the team aquired a 20 year old to take the helm. Cedrick soon outperformed him as well. We won the President's Cup and made it to the Memorial Cup final that season. Crosby and Desjardins were incredible in those playoffs.

Boucher goes on to answer in theory why Desjardins had continuously flown under the radar.

As a goalie, he does not have an imposing presence about him, nor is he looked upon as having abundant natural abilities. But, he's a ferocious competitor. He's extraordinarily strong on second and third rebounds. He pulls rabbits out of his hat it seems. At any given time, when he looks beaten, he'll surprise and make the stop. It's not luck. He's extremely quick and very athletic.

Brunet goes on to say that Boucher and his assistants helped in refining Desjardins' technique.

In Rimouski, as an assistant coach, I was in charge of handling Desjardins' psychological approach in games. I've known him well for some time now and we have put in a lot of time together. We've worked on patience together. The biggest difference between junior and pro or the East Coast League is that the initial shot on goal becomes much more important. In junior, that first shot is easier to stop because it is not as hard. At the pro level, shots are fired without warning. Pro levels goalies who are having difficulties adjusting are the ones who have the most trouble with that first shot. What Cedrick had to learn was to concentrate singularly on that first shot instead of worrying abou the consequences of a rebound. He had a tendency to try and predict what he would be doing next rather than focusing on the first task. Now he more concentrated on the first chance and as aggressive on rebounds.

In talking of Desjardins and his season, Boucher would not yet term either he or Sanford as the team's number one goalie. Sanford has been equally strong, but his wife has recently given birth and Desjardins' performances have come during the veteran's lightened workload. The goalies had been alternating until recently, but as Desjardins gained the hot hand, Boucher felt it best to ride it out.

The coach was non-committal as per Desjardins short or longer term prospects with the Canadiens. That talk was not up for discussions as Boucher would not want such scenarios hampering his goalie's focus at the present time.

He must continue to focus uniquely on the next game and not about what comes along in two weeks time. Not on whether in six months he'll be the number one. In Hamilton, our goals are to help the players reach the NHL level and Cedrick has always taking things a step at a time. For now, his challenge is to demonstate the consistency required from being a number one AHL goalie.

Avalanche Playing Well Despite Grueling Schedule

Joe Dunman — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:40:27 -0000

Last night's non-game notwithstanding, the Avalanche have done pretty well so far this season. Their 19-11-6 record is still sixth-best in the NHL. This is especially impressive considering the grueling nature of their early-season schedule.

So far, the Avs have played 36 games. That's the most in the league and five more games than five other teams have played so far (New Jersey, Chicago, Buffalo, St. Louis and Atlanta have played only 31). The Avs have played six more games on the road (21) than they've played at home (15). While there are thirteen other teams in the NHL that currently have a deficit of home games played to games played on the road, only the Islanders have had it worse than the Avalanche (13 home, 20 road).

Of the thirteen teams who have spent more time on the road than at home, only six are above the post-season cutoff lines in each conference. In the West, Colorado, Calgary, San Jose and Los Angeles are enduring their lop-sided schedules relatively well. In the East, only Boston and Atlanta have overcome the odds to hold playoff spots, and Atlanta's home deficit is just one game.

This season's schedule has also been extremely busy for the Avs. By December 16th last year, the Avs had only played 30 games. The year before, 32 games. Part of the compressed schedule can be attributed to the Olympic break, which comes in February. But even then, this season is significantly harder than past Olympic years. By December 16th of the 2005-06 season, the Avs had only played 31 games, sixteen of which were at home.

In fact, this is the most front-loaded schedule the Avalanche have ever endured since moving to Colorado in 1995-96. The closest they have come to 36 games by December 16th is the 1997-98 season (35), which was an Olympic year. Generally by this date the Avs have only played 30-32 games.

So, the Avs have managed a sixth-best record of 19-11-6 despite: 1) playing more games than any other team to this point in the season, 2) having the second-worst home game deficit, and 3) playing more games between the start of the season to this date than in any year previous, including Olympic years.

Not too shabby for a bunch of rookies and second-year whippersnappers.

Wednesday Links: The Goblin lives to coach another day edition

averagejoe — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:00:25 -0000

A home win? What is that? Now let's get a road win again tonight.

Blues news

Blues win! At home! Exclamation points! [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
Were the Flames star-struck? Who knows. I'm just glad they lost. [Vancouver Sun]
Brett Hull is, and always will be, the man. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
Some quotes throughout the day — did you know the Blues told Brendan Shanahan he was traded in a five-second phone call? [Belleville News-Democrat]
Here are some pictures from last night. [Blues]
The Blues are back in action tonight, taking on the hated Chicago Blackhawks. [CBS Sports
Patrick Kane will play tonight against the Blues. [Chicago Breaking Sports News]

Hockey news

Here are your results for last night. [Yahoo! Sports]
Eight games tonight, but really one worth watching. [Yahoo! Sports]
FIGHT! Everyone loves a good throw down, here are the Puck Daddy Top-10 of the aughts. No love for the Cam Janssen/Aaron Downey fight? [Puck Daddy]
What's ailing the Sharks? For once it's not being in the playoffs. [Fear the Fin]
The 12 Days of Christmas gets a Vancouver makeover. [Nucks Misconduct]
Canadiens goalie Jaroslav Halak might be on the move. [TSN]
Gary Bettman tells the Board of Governors they won't have to cover the Coyotes' losses. That means, of course, they will. [TSN]
Guess what? The Canadian media loves Sidney Crosby. [TSN]
More notes from the first day of the BOG meetings. [ESPN]
Brian Burke will carry the Olympic torch. [ESPN]
Michael Leighton, who is not that good, has been claimed off waivers by the Flyers. [ESPN]

Other links

This map looks pretty accurate said every one of my neighbors. [Pic
You've heard of Letters to Santa, well this is Letters to Walken, as in Christopher Walken. [Letters to Walken]
The year in viral videos. Enjoy. [Videogum]

Video

Donut King knows who he wants to take over the Blues when Andy Murray gets fired: this guy.

That's it for today. Come back for the GDT. I'm off work so I'll be there.

Flames Game Day: Blue Period

Robert Cleave — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Calgary Flames vs. St. Louis Blues

Scottrade Center

6 PM MT

Opposition: St. Louis Game Time

TV: PPV

Are they really tired? Sick? Effort a bit lacking? If you read the papers in the last few days, that's the impression one might get about the Flames after a couple of dodgy outings over the weekend. Those two games were certainly amongst the worst performances this year, and I do think that fatigue might have played a role.

I think that an honest appraisal of the Flames would submit that they aren't the most skilled team in the league. That doesn't mean they can't have a good season, but what it does mean is that they haven't got very much margin for error, so the team has to play with an effort level very close to the maximum. This current Flames' edition reminds me a bit of the 05/06 team in that regard. There was a solid core of defencemen, not much going on up front, and Kipper was out of his head. Darryl Sutter rode that team pretty hard to end up in third place, and when they were confronted by a team with more scoring depth in the playoffs, the Flames didn't have anything extra. That loss to the Ducks was just the beginning of Calgary's one-and-done springs.

That comparison might seem a bit unfair, and that 05/06 team's forwards didn't seem quite as good as the current group, but the numbers are unforgiving. The Flames have scored 51 goals in their last 22 games. 2.3 GPG over a full season would likely be right at the bottom of the league, so I don't think I'm reaching to say that level of scoring won't get a team very far.

The underlying issue, of course, is the lack of shots. Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen are both tracking towards some of their poorest shot totals since establishing themselves as bona fide NHLers. Iginla's little run of hot shooting last month aside, the two of them haven't really created much at EV or on the PP, and if anyone has a scenario where the Flames don't need those two playing at a high level to have a successful season, I'm all ears.

I just can't see anything changing unless the Flames go completely into the tank. Sutter appears to be as attached to leaving the big two together as Bart Simpson was to his Rock, Paper, Scissors strategy, and if that was at EV only, I could live with it, wrong-headed as I might find it, because the Flames aren't giving up much in the way of EV chances most games. Where this sort of stubbornness strikes me as unforgivable is when the Flames are up a man. Three shots in nine and a half PP minutes in Denver can't just be explained away by bad luck or fatigue. The PP has looked lost more nights than not since the unrepeatable shooting of October, so I don't see why the team is so doctrinaire. Keeping the lines intact for the PP sounds like a good idea in theory, but there's no actual evidence to back the strategy, and this team needs the PP to be good under the best of circumstances.

The other move that has left many of us baffled is the persistent use of Robyn Regehr on the second PP. He's very good at his role, but that role shouldn't include ice-time when the Flames are actually looking to create offence. It's just another part of a very conservative approach that the team has gotten away with because of Miikka Kiprusoff's stellar play this season.

More scoring from somewhere seems like a good plan tonight, since Curtis McElhinney is slated for an outing, and it's the first time he's had a look where the team wasn't playing in a B2B. If Kipper needs a night off due to overwork, you'd certainly understand it given what he faced on the weekend.

Calgary's scoring woes aside, it might not be a bad time for McE to get some run, since the Blues can't throw it in the ocean either. They can't score (2.37 GPG), and they've won 5 games at home all year. Their PP, the source of so many good things as they made a run to the post-season last spring, is DFL, operating at 12.8%. The only reason that the Blues haven't been left for dead is their goaltending and PK work. There seems to be a certain commonality at play, doesn't there?

So, in review, neither team can score, Calgary's using McE, and the game is on PPV, which has been a guaranteed loss for the Flames this season (0-2-2). Oh, and if you believe the lines from the Herald that were in that linked bit, Nystrom is playing with Joker and Iggy. Maybe the Flames can win 2-1? They haven't done anything of that manner in about a week, so they're due ;-)

Game time is 6 MT.

Flames Scoring Chance Differentials, Games 21-30

Kent Wilson — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:53:42 -0000

More photos » by Graham Hughes - AP

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It's about that time again to sort through the scoring chance totals and see who's been driving the bus (and who should be thrown under it). Through the first couple of 10 game segments, the Flames were a fairly middling team by this measure - they gave about as good as they got, although many of the money guys were well under water (which is a sub-optimal way to spend a bulk of your payroll to be sure). High shooting percentages in October and out-of-this-world goaltending since are therefore probably the reasons Calgary is challenging for the division crown at the moment.

Anyways, to the tables!

Games 21-30 encompassed one of the club's best stretches of the season - namely, the 6 game road trip. As a result, a majority of the team was in the black by this measure (or at least treaded water). Iginla and Jokinen didn't exactly set the world ablaze, but there was at least improvement over their previous 20 games. Of course, Curtis Glencross continues to pummel other third liners, while Langkow, Bourque and Conroy continue their stellar play as well.

Overall, the Flames garnered about 53% of the ES scoring chances recorded over this period - a very healthy ratio.

Other items of interest:

- If you visit some Flames messageboards, you'll notice a small contingent of fans want to recall Jamie Lundmark and put him on the first line because, well...Iginla was scoring when Lundmark was up the last time. Unfortunately, correlation does not always equal causation. Despite playing with Jokinen and Iginla during their strongest stretch of the season, Lundmark was still under water. In addition, he was the first guy to sit on the bench when the game was within a goal or two in the third period either way. I personally like Lundmark and think he could probably replace a guy like Sjostrom or Prust on the roster tomorrow, but the fact of the matter is he's no solution for the first line LW conundrum.

- Phaneuf with his worst relative 10 game stretch thus far. Some of that has to do with Sarich going down and Regehr and Dion getting a lot of the tough match-ups many nights, but it's still not the best sign for a guy of his pay-scale and established defensive issues. Keep in mind, this sample does not include the recent Minnesota debacle where Dion was something of a disaster (-3, including that final, terrible shift). I was somewhat encouraged by Dion's humble steps forward initially, but it looks like he's taken a few steps back recently.

- Olli Jokinen still one of the worst players on the team at ES by this metric. That's the bad news. If you're a silver lining type, he at least wasn't completely terrible which is something of an improvement.

- Nystrom's numbers improved somewhat. A lot of that has to do with playing mostly with Bourque and Conroy rather than Sjostrom and Prust/McGrattan no doubt.

- How does Bouwmeester do it?

Of course, this is all just a third of the season that has passed thus far. Here are the total as they stand today (minus the untelevised Blues game and the last two most recent contests, of course):

Looking at the Flames payroll, one could reasonably expect this list to be inverted. Through the first 30 games, though, the Flames have $26.37 million in capspace (Iginla, Jokinen, Sarich, Regehr, Phaneuf) six feet under ground by this measure (to the tune of a cumulative -115 rating). Many of the supporting players are getting the job done, but a good portion of the top end of the roster has spent the time getting out-chanced through a third of the year so far. To be fair, all of them have had to deal with pretty tough assignments in terms of own-zone draws and top-notch competition but that is, as the saying goes, why they get the big bucks. If the players you're paying elite salaries to can't at least hold other elite players to even in terms of getting the puck into scoring areas, then it stands to reason that you're using your cap space inefficiently (to be perfectly polite). Whether you want to put the blame on Jokinen himself, the lack of a legit winger for the top unit, a lack of "chemistry" between a couple of shooters in Jarome and Olli or too much money invested in the back-end (or a combination thereof) I think it's becoming pretty clear that the Flames will need to do something to get their top end guys out of the possession/scoring chance basement.

Kipper's heroics have covered a lot of these warts thus far and it's certainly helped having guys like Bourque and Glencross knocking it out of the park, but if the team wants to continue to challenge for the division and third in the conference, it simply can't have some $18M in "offense-first" players (Jokinen, Iginla, Phaneuf) bringing up the rear. Especially given the way the club's special teams have fallen on hard times recently.