SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 27: Alexander Gustafsson of Sweden catches James Te Huna of Australia in a choke hold during their light heavyweight bout as part of UFC 127 at Acer Arena on February 27, 2011 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
For all of the hype around Alexander Gustafsson - and there has been plenty during his four-fight win streak - an important fact has been overlooked.
Yes the lanky Swedish light heavyweight is a finisher and yes he is fighting in his homeland at UFC on Fuel TV 2 Saturday night.
But his opponents have not exactly been stellar, which possibly inflates his odds against seasoned Antonio Silva. The Mauler has beaten aging Vladimir Matyushenko, mediocre Cyrille Diabate (who also fights Saturday) and now-retired Matt Hamill.
Silva, on the other hand, has fought Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida as he returns from a year-long, drug-test suspension.
"Silva is tempting at +180 on the MMA moneyline, but Gustafsson is so tall that he may be able to bang out a decision without getting touched," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. "Silva may be the heaviest hitter at 205 pounds, so if he does lay his hands on the Swede, he will mean business."
Gustafsson was -220 Friday as the favorite.
The rest of the Main Event card features Brian Stann, who looks to rebound from a one-sided loss to Chael Sonnen, against Alessio Sakara. Stann is a big -400 favorite.
A huge featherweight fight with title-shot implications pits Diego Nunes against Denis Siver. Nunes is potentially in line for a shot at Jose Aldo with an impressive win, but he seldom finishes (eight decisions in past eight fights).
Siver needs to keep the fight standing and he has the power to end this at any time, especially after moving down from lightweight. He will a huge featherweight.
And the Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada scrap at welterweight could be Fight of the Night. The much-hyped Afghan faces a wiry BJJ and judo black belt but could be good value at +125 on the UFC odds menu.
UFC on Fuel TV 2 Odds - Gustafsson vs Silva:
Jason Young -185
Eric Wisely +160
Simeon Thoresen -300
Besam Yousef +250
Reza Madadi -230
Yoislandy Izquierdo +190
James Head +200
Papy Abedi -240
Francis Carmont -265
Magnus Cedenblad +225
Brad Pickett -220
Damacio Page +180
Paulo Thiago -145
Siyar Bahadurzada +125
DaMarques Johnson +130
John Maguire -150
Dennis Siver +150
Diego Nunes -170
Alessio Sakara +325
Brian Stann -400
Alexander Gustafsson -220
Thiago Silva +180
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