LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 03: Sabercat trains on the track in preparation for the 138th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2012 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Three times in the past seven years, a long shot of 20/1 odds or longer has pulled off the upset for Kentucky Derby bettors.
Going back 10 years, there have been four, with 50/1 dreams Mine That Bird in 2009 and Giacomo in 2005 the biggest payoffs.
That’s why the 2012 edition of the Derby is so intriguing. It’s a wide-open field of 20 horses, with no real consensus top pick and plenty of value through the starting gate.
Not to mention, three horses at 50-1 odds or longer (and possibly more by the time the horses break at Churchill Downs Saturday).
“It’s the 35-1 Sabercat that could be a live longshot in the 138th running of the Derby on Saturday,” said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com, which has been tracking 2012 Derby odds since last November. [ Expert Kentucky Derby Picks for $20! ]
The Steve Asmussen trainee was no match for the likely Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister in a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, but the colt was making just his second start as a 3-year-old.
The colt locked in a starting spot in the Derby based on the graded money he earned winning the Delta Jackpot last November, giving his connections the luxury of bringing him along slower than most of the other leading Derby contenders.
Sabercat could be a threat, following on the heels of Super Saver who won last here at 21-1 odds. War Emblem was 20-1 in winning the 2002 edition.
Odds to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby (by post position): Latest lines
1. Daddy Long Legs 30/1
2. Optimizer 50/1
3. Take Charge Indy 15/1
4. Union Rags 9/2
5. Dullahan 15/2
6. Bodemeister 4/1
7. Rousing Sermon 55/1
8. Creative Cause 11/1
9. Trinniberg 50/1
10. Daddy Nose Best 15/1
11. Alpha 15/1
12. Prospective 30/1
13. Went The Day Well 20/1
14. Hansen 10/1
15. Gemologist 6/1
16. El Padrino 22/1
17. Done Talking 50/1
18. Sabercat 35/1
19. I'll Have Another 12/1
20. Liaison 50/1