Florida vs. LSU odds, trends, and pick: Tigers win, but be careful betting

Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

LSU has struggled at home against Florida over the years, but they are favored again in SEC betting lines posted this week.

The Florida Gators are 5-1-1 against the spread and 4-3 straight up in their last seven road games against the LSU Tigers and will once again be playing the role of underdog heading into Tiger Stadium. Florida was a 7-point underdog at midweek at shops monitored by OddsShark.com. The computer has pegged a 7-point win for the Tigers, but a higher-scoring game than the 47.5 opening total would suggest.

It looked like disaster for the Florida Gators when Jeff Driskel went down with a season-ending injury against Tennessee. The Gators went on to win that game 31-17, but fell to 0-3 ATS and had people wondering if their already-struggling offense could withstand Driskel's absence.

So far, so good; Tyler Murphy has filled in admirably in the role, leading Florida to a 2-0 SU and ATS record with wins over Kentucky and Arkansas. But is he ready for a road test like the one coming up this Saturday?

Zach Mettenberger and the LSU offense continue to impress, coming off of a 59-26 road win over Mississippi State last week. Mettenberger's two touchdown passes in the game brought his season total to 15 with just two interceptions as the Tigers' offense continues to roll, to the tune of 45 points per game this season.

While the offense has looked great over LSU's 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS start, the defense is allowing an uncharacteristic 24.7 points per game.

For as great as LSU's offense has looked, the Tigers haven't really faced a strong defense yet, and they'll be getting exactly that Saturday against the Gators. Florida is allowing just 12.2 points per game while holding opponents to just 217 total yards per game.

The total has gone UNDER in six of LSU's last nine home games against Florida and in 11 of the last 16 meetings overall between these two SEC rivals. This week's total is set at 47.5.

Florida's defense will be a tough test, but early returns suggest that Mettenberger is ready for it. At home against a quarterback making his third career start, LSU should be able to come out on top by a touchdown or more.

PICK: LSU -7.0 | Computer Prediction: 44-37 LSU (from Odds Shark picks computer)

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