The New York Giants finally picked up their first ATS cover of the year last week, but are still 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the season.
As of Monday morning, more than 63 per cent of the betting consensus was on the Giants and almost the same percentage was betting OVER 47.5. On the season, these teams have combined for a 9-2 record favoring the OVER, which makes it very curious why the picks computer is predicting a low-scoring game (19-9 Vikes).
After four straight blowout losses, the New York Giants finally showed a pulse last Thursday night on the road against the Chicago Bears. The Giants eventually lost 27-21, but covered the spread as a 9.5-point road underdog.
While New York has struggled on both sides of the ball, the defense has been consistently bad, allowing a league-worst 34.8 points per game. [ Full MNF matchup stats, trends and live odds ]
The Minnesota Vikings have also been terrible on defense, allowing 31.6 points per game to their opponents this season. After getting mixed results from both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel, the Vikings are turning to their third quarterback of the season this Monday night in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman.
Freeman has had some great seasons in the NFL, but struggled under head coach Greg Schiano and was eventually waived.
The numbers just aren't pretty for either of these teams. Minnesota is 2-11 SU over its last 13 games and New York is 1-12 over its last 13. Minnesota has enjoyed some success against the New York Giants with a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record over their last five games against the G-men, but their most recent matchup came in 2010.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS this season and just 2-8 ATS in 10 Monday Nighters over the years, according to the searchable NFL database at OddsShark.com.
New York has had extra time to prepare for this game since it played last Thursday, and going up against this weak Minnesota defense you would expect the Giants to be able to put up some points. But will the Giants be able to contain Adrian Peterson?
The key to that question, and the game, could be new Vikings quarterback Josh Freemen. Going against what has been the league's worst scoring defense, Freeman could have a big day and solidify his spot as starter.
But if the struggles he had in Tampa Bay continue, it could be a long night for Minnesota.
Pick: Giants -3.5 and OVER 47.5 | Computer Prediction: 19-9 Minnesota (we disagree strongly that this will be a low-scoring game)