Two teams will be double-digit home underdogs by the time Sunday rolls around, and that means two opportunities for NFL bettors to profit from a staggering trend.
Technically, there will be three as Jacksonville is considered the 'home' team as they face San Francisco is the neutral site matchup at London's Wembley Stadium.
Since December 2009, 20 teams have been home underdogs of 10 points or more. And 18 times the double-digit home dog covered the spread. Yes, that means 18-2 ATS.
Minnesota was +10 at home to Green Bay in one such game in Week 8. St. Louis, with QB Sam Bradford on the shelf, was laying 12 points in a Monday Nighter against the Seattle Seahawks.
And while the Jacksonville vs. San Francisco game remained off the board Thursday, most reasonable observers were predicting this spread would open at +15 or higher.
"That makes three chances to take advantage of this trend, regardless of how poorly you feel those home teams are performing," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
Chart of recent double-digit home underdog results, courtesy of OddsShark.com: (bold is ATS losses by home dog)
|20/12/2009||Houston||16||St. Louis||13||14||St. Louis|
|30/10/2011||New Orleans||21||St. Louis||31||13.5||St. Louis|
|27/11/2011||Pittsburgh||13||Kansas City||9||10.5||Kansas City|
|18/12/2011||Green Bay||14||Kansas City||19||11.5||Kansas City|
|01/01/2012||San Francisco||34||St. Louis||27||12.5||St. Louis|
|25/11/2012||Denver||17||Kansas City||9||10||Kansas City|