The Indianapolis Colts haven't just been an excellent team this season -- beating the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos -- but they have rewarded bettors handsomely as well. They enter this weekend's game against the Houston Texans with a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games after starting the season 0-2.
The Texans, meanwhile, are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They have lost five consecutive games straight-up heading into Sunday's matchup. They are currently 2.5 to 3-point underdogs, depending on the sports book, with Case Keenum set to start at quarterback over Matt Schaub.
Whether you side with the Colts or the Texans this week may depend on your confidence that Keenum can resurrect a moribund offense. The Texans rank 30th in the NFL on offense at 17.43 points per game. They match up against and eight-ranked Colts defense that is allowing just 18.71 points per game.
However, the Texans may have a chance to exploit the Colts on the ground. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have been excellent when running the ball at home, racking up nearly 159 yards per game against the Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams. The Colts' run defense ranks 12th in the NFL when playing on the road, giving up 100.67 yards per game.
Foster and Tate may be game-time decisions due to injuries, so bettors will definitely want to keep an eye on their statuses.
The over/under for Sunday night's game is currently 44 points. Bettors will have a very difficult decision to make when betting the total. The fact that both teams are coming off a bye week marks an interesting trend. The Colts have gone over in nine of their last 11 games played off a bye, whereas the Texans have gone under in eight of their last nine games off a bye.
The Colts are 7-3 against the Texans over the last 10 meeting between the two teams. However, the Texans have been the better team against the spread, going 6-4. The last meeting between the two teams came on Dec. 30, 2012. The Colts won 28-16 at home after holding the Texans to just 81 total yards rushing. During the prior meeting, the Texans rushed for 178 yards at home and won, 29-17.
If the Texans' offense is predicated on the run, they may need Foster and Tate to be near full strength. Keenum looked competent during the team's Week 7 loss against a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense, and should arguably be even more comfortable at home. If he doesn't have run support, however, the Colts may be able to tee off on the second-year quarterback.