The Colts, who lead the division at 6-3, were unexpectedly routed last Sunday by the Kellen Clemens-led Rams, 38-8. Andrew Luck followed up back-to-back wins against the Broncos and Texans with a mistake-filled performance, throwing three picks and getting sacked three times. The Titans suffered an even greater embarrassment, handing the hapless Jaguars their first win of the season in a turnover-happy debacle that saw starting quarterback Jake Locker go down for the season.
The Colts enter the divisional tilt as two-point favorites, though the line has shifted to as high as three points in some books. The Colts have been a slightly above-average bet this season, going 5-4 against the spread (ATS), but have gone 3-1 ATS on the road and are 5-2 over their last seven games. The Titans have an impressive 5-3-1 record against the line, but are 1-3-1 at home.
The Colts have won eight of the last 10 matchups against the Titans and have gone 6-4 ATS in that span.
The over/under for the contest has been set at 42½, and recent trends suggest over to be the smart money. The total has gone over in four of the last five Colts games, while Titans contests have topped the number in five of the last six. While both teams' defenses rank in the top 10 in points allowed, their average combined point total is 43.2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was impressive filling in for Locker after the starter's departure last Sunday, throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns on 33 attempts. If he can put up similar numbers against the Colts and the Titans can find a way to get Chris Johnson going, they'll have a chance to move the ball against the league's 22nd ranked defense. The Colts have been soft against the run, but Johnson averaged just 2.5 yards per carry against a Jags front that is last in the league in run defense, so there's no safe bet he'll be able to get back on track.
Tennessee's secondary has played well against the pass this season, allowing 211.3 yards per game. They'll face a major challenge in Luck, who is averaging 244 yards despite ranking outside the top 15 in pass attempts. Trent Richardson has averaged just 2.2 yards per carry over the last three games, so expect Luck to be putting the ball in the air with more frequency this week.
Pick: Indianapolis | Computer prediction: 24-21 Colts (follow Odds Shark on Twitter for line updates and injury news)