The New York Jets are 5-4 and leading the second wild card race in the AFC, but one could argue that the 3-7 Buffalo Bills are the better team, if at least not way more consistent. Eight weeks after the Jets beat the Bills 27-20 in New York, the two AFC East teams meet again this Sunday in Buffalo.
What sort of trends are going to be most important when betting this matchup, now an even line by most sports books?
New York is 6-3 against the spread this season while Buffalo has lost three straight against the spread. The Bills have also just lost three games in a row straight up and not even the return of rookie quarterback EJ Manuel could stop them from losing by 13 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.
The Jets are coming off of a bye week and are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games following a bye. Conversely, the Bills are 1-5-1 over their last seven games headed into a bye week and Buffalo doesn't play in Week 12. Not only that, but New York is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight meetings with Buffalo.
What do the Bills have going for them then? How about homefield advantage.
Though they are just 2-3 in Buffalo this season, they managed to beat the Carolina Panthers at home, only lost by two to the New England Patriots, lost by three in overtime to the Cincinnati Bengals, beat the Baltimore Ravens, and lose to the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets are 1-3 on the road this year, including a 40-point loss to the Bengals and a 25-point loss to the Tennessee Titans.
New York has not won or lost two games in a row this season and they are coming off of a win in Week 9.
The over/under is set at 40.5 and the total has been under in 14 of the Jets last 17 games following a bye.