Manny Pacquiao will look to get back on the winning track when he faces Brandon Rios in Macau, China this weekend and the price tag on backing the former champion is better than in many years.
Of course, the reason is that Pacquiao arrives with a losing streak and apparently is in the midst of a career decline.
On the line will be the vacant WBO International Welterweight title. On the betting line, it's a -450 wager on Manny (bet $45 to profit $10), which is cheaper than in recent years when he was clearly dominant. As one of the best counter-punching talents ever, Pacquiao (54-5-2, 38 KOs) is expected to have his way against the aggressive style that Rios will bring.
The risk may be high on Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO's) beating Pacquiao based on style matchup, but he does possess the power to end the fight at any point. Pacquiao's chin did not look very strong against Marquez in his last fight, and if his ability to absorb punches is gone, it could be a fast night in favor of Rios.
If Pacquiao is indeed on a fast decline the window in which to take advantage will be small. This fight against Rios could be the last time boxing bettors get the chance to earn a big payday betting against Pacquiao.
If he suffers a third straight loss he will not be as big a favorite the next time he enters the ring, if he ever does again.
If you like the potential scenario of Pacquiao being finished, boxing action on Rios to win will pay as much as +325. If Rios does win, it will likely come via KO, with the same likely win result applying to Pacquiao.
With both fighters having a better chance to win via KO/TKO, there looks to be more value in the Over/Under options at shops such as 5Dimes.eu on the fight.
With the Over/Under set at 9.5 rounds, a price of -175 on the Under option looks to have better value than the Pacquiao to win moneyline. The payout on the Over 9.5 rounds is currently listed at +125 and doesn't look to have a big enough reward for the risk.