The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers meet in a Week 10 matchup complicated by the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Sunday's game is of vital importance to both teams' playoff chances, but it's unclear if the Packers have the offensive firepower to keep up with the dangerous Eagles.
Unpredictability makes this one of the hardest games to pick this week. Odds are even between the sides, and neither team has been particularly convincing recently. The Eagles are 4-5 against the spread in their last nine games, while Green Bay is slightly more reliable at 5-3, but it's important to note the Packers are 4-1 against the spread in the last five weeks.
Nick Foles is coming off a seven-touchdown game against the Oakland Raiders and faces a Packers pass defense that ranks 20th in the league. While he likely won't repeat his record-tying performance, this is a difficult game for Green Bay defensively.
Offensive success for the Packers will hinge on the ability of rookie running back Eddie Lacy. Against the Bears when Rodgers went down, Lacy responded with 150 rushing yards and a touchdown. He will work against the league's 18th-ranked run defense in Philadelphia, which is giving up an average of 111.8 yards per game.
The line is holding even after opening at a -10 for the Packers -- this is the Rodgers factor. Some books are favoring Green Bay by one, but that's the largest margin being offered at this time. Unreliable defensive units have Sunday's game pegged to be high scoring; the over/under sits at 46.5.
In three games as Eagles' starter, Foles has Chip Kelly's offense averaging 28 points, which makes the over the smart bet this week. Even without Rodgers, the Packers' offense has talent, and it's facing the worst total defense in the NFL.
The most-likely winner this weekend is Philadelphia, purely by virtue of quarterback play. The Packers were a shadow of themselves without Rodgers under center, and it's hard to see a run-first offense succeeded against a quick-fire Eagles passing attack.