2013 Idaho Potato Bowl odds: Buffalo vs. San Diego State trends

Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulls and Aztecs meet on the blue turf, with Buffalo expected to prevail.

The San Diego State Aztecs are just 2-6 in eight career bowl games, with a 1-5 SU record since winning the Pasadena Bowl back in 1969. And they won't beat the Buffalo Bulls in the Idaho Potato Bowl, if the Odds Shark prediction computer is accurate.

The Aztecs opened as 2.5-point underdogs, according to early Idaho Potato Bowl odds monitored by OddsShark.com. This is just the second time in Buffalo history that the team has reached a bowl. Both teams would love to add a rare bowl win to their resumes.

After starting the season off 1-2 SU and ATS, including forgivable road losses to Baylor and Ohio State, the Buffalo Bulls (Mid-Amercan, 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 OU) strung together a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Over that stretch, the Bulls averaged 36.5 points per game on offense and allowed just 8.8 points per game on defense, thoroughly dominating the competition on both sides of the ball.

Buffalo cooled off a bit down the stretch, with a 1-2 SU and ATS record over its last three games, but the well-balanced squad should get up for just its second bowl appearance ever.

San Diego State's season (Mountain West, 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 OU) got off to a terrible 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS start, including a 40-19 loss to Eastern Illinois as a 14-point favorite at home.

The Aztecs turned things around on offense when conference play began, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their first seven games against Mountain West foes while averaging 33.9 points per game. The Aztecs managed to outshoot most of their conference opponents, but their holes on defense caught up to them in a 45-19 loss to UNLV to end the regular season.

The key to this game could be Buffalo's edge on defense. The Bulls allowed just 22.3 points per game and 216.6 passing yards per game this year, while San Diego State allowed 32.3 points per game and 259.7 passing yards per game.

If the Aztecs can use this time off to prepare a solid game plan on defense, this should be a very good game between two fairly evenly matched teams.

Trends:

Both prior Potato Bowls played UNDER the total
San Diego State is 1-2-1 ATS in bowls since 1998

Computer Prediction: 34-22 Buffalo (from Odds Shark computer)

More from SB Nation college football:

Interactive bowl season calendar with picks and links to more coverage:

Screen_shot_2013-12-09_at_2

What the Playoff would look like, from four to 32 teams

Ranking all 35 bowl games by watchability

College football news | Latest Saban-to-Texas rumors shot down

Long CFB reads | The night Baylor died in Stillwater

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join SBNation.com

You must be a member of SBNation.com to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SBNation.com. You should read them.

Join SBNation.com

You must be a member of SBNation.com to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SBNation.com. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.