The New England Patriots are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Miami Dolphins and favored to make it eight straight on the Week 15 NFL odds menu.
Miami will try to break out of this slump against its AFC East rival when it hosts the Patriots Sunday as a 3-point home underdog at Sun Life Stadium.
New England has won each of their last three games via Tom Brady's late-game heroics. The Patriots scored two touchdowns under a minute apart from each other last Sunday to edge out a 27-26 victory over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite at home.
The computer likes the Patriots in a close one, 26-22.
Rob Gronkowski was lost for the season in the win, but the Patriots will try to keep things flowing on offense without him. New England is just 6-7 ATS despite their 10-3 SU record, which keeps them among the top bets in Super Bowl future odds.
However, the Patriots are just 0-5-1 ATS in their past six times as road favorites. Combine that stat with the fact the Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games as home underdogs and you have intriguing handicapping dilemma.
The Miami Dolphins have put themselves in great position to compete for the final wild card spot in the AFC thanks to a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run over their last four games. Miami has been excellent as a small underdog this season with a 5-0 SU and ATS record when going off as an underdog of three points or less.
Overall, the Dolphins are 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS on the season.
Miami's last win against the New England Patriots came by a score of 22-21 at home back in December 2009. Since then, New England has won seven straight games in this series with five of those games being decided by 10 points or more, including this season's 27-17 win by New England back in October.
New England appears to be beatable, as indicated by needing late-game comebacks against two bad teams in Houston and Cleveland. But on the other hand, the Patriots always seem to find a way to win, and historically are very strong in the month of December.
In a division rivalry game that is important to both teams, this one should come down to the fourth quarter; as always seems to be the case when the Patriots are involved.
Computer Prediction: 26-22 Patriots (see NFL predictions on every Week 15 game)
Key Trend: UNDER is 7-1 past eight Miami divisional games