In 13 meetings between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs since 1990, Indianapolis is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS.
Yet Kansas City is favored to buck that historical trend this week, going off at -7 at home against the Colts.
The Kansas City Chiefs seem to have righted the ship after suffering through a brief 0-3 SU and ATS dip after going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS through their first nine games. Kansas City went 2-0 SU and ATS over its last two games with back-to-back road wins over Washington and Oakland.
The Chiefs' once rock-solid defense has sprung some holes, but on the bright side the offense has exploded averaging 41.8 points per game over the last four games.
With last week's win over Houston, Indianapolis improved to 10-0 SU and ATS in games coming off of a loss with Andrew Luck under center. Those losses have been coming more frequently over the second half of the season as the Colts are 3-3 SU and ATS over their last six games after starting the year off 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS.
With wins against Seattle, San Francisco and Denver under their belts, the Colts have proven that they can play with elite teams; but they'd like to get some positive momentum back before the postseason.
If recent games these two teams have played are any indication, there could be plenty of offense on display this Sunday. The total has gone OVER in six of Indianapolis's last eight games and in each of Kansas City's last four games.
Curiously, these teams have alternated SU wins and losses the past seven meetings and KC is due to win if that pattern holds. The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Kansas City.
The Chiefs are just 2-10 ATS in their past 12 games as home favorites, while the Colts have slumped to a 1-4 ATS mark in their past five games as road underdogs. And the computer says 31-23 for the Colts.
Both teams have already locked up playoff spots, but a win this week would help with seeding. Indianapolis still has an outside shot at earning a first-round bye if New England and Cincinnati falter, while Kansas City can still finish with the AFC's top seed if the Chiefs win out and Denver loses again.
Whether or not Indianapolis plays to its potential this week will determine how good of a game this will be.
Computer Prediction: 31-23 Chiefs (from Odds Shark NFL picks engine)