The Hurricanes (ACC, 9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 OU) haven't won a bowl game since topping the Nevada Wolfpack in the MPC Computers Bowl back in 2007, going 0-3 SU and ATS in three bowl appearances since.
The Louisville Cardinals are 3-1 SU over their last four bowl games, including last year's upset win over Florida as a 14.5-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl.
Louisville won't be playing the role of underdog this year, going off at -3 in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Florida.
Russell Athletic Bowl betting odds history, current trends, odds
Playing in the soft American Athletic Conference, the Louisville Cardinals (AAC, 11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 OU) were a double-digit favorite in every game this season besides the final game of the year on the road at Cincinnati in which the Cardinals were only favored by three points.
After starting off the year 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, Louisville went just 2-6 ATS over its last eight games. The Cardinals finished in the top 20 nationally in passing with 302.9 yards per game and in the top five in defense allowing just 257.9 yards and 12.4 points per game.
After starting the season off 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, Miami went 0-6 ATS over its next six games before finally breaking the ATS slump in a 41-31 road win over Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog to end the season.
Miami entered its game against Florida State at 7-0 SU, but was knocked down to size in a 41-14 rout by FSU. The loss of star running back Duke Johnson hurt Miami's offense; the team averaged 45.2 points per game before his injury and 29.3 games after it.
The total has gone OVER in each of Miami's last four games and in six of Louisville's last seven bowl games (per closing lines from 5Dimes.eu). The Cardinals have trended heavily towards the UNDER this season though at 3-9.
Including this bowl's history as the Champs Sports Bowl, ACC schools have gone 9-1 SU over the last 10 games in this bowl. To keep that trend alive, Miami's shaky pass defense will need to find a way to stop Teddy Bridgewater in this one.
Computer Prediction: 36-34 Louisville (from Odds Shark computer picks)