At 7/1 odds, there isn't a lot of betting value in backing Floyd Mayweather jr to beat Robert Guerrero Saturday night.
Money Mayweather has been money in the bank for bettors 43 times in his career, but it's a significant risk at 7/1, especially against a determined challenger like The Ghost.
And putting any serious money on Guerrero to do something that has never happened in 43 fights is probably not the best investment for your wagering dollar.
Can Guerrero ruin Mayweather's win streak? Will Floyd take personal offence at being called a ‘woman beater' by Guerrero's trainer-father repeatedly at a press conference this week?
Savvy boxing bettors are instead looking at prop bets like the over-under in rounds for more value in this WBC welterweight title bout.
Not surprisingly, the over 11.5 rounds is the favored position, with sportsbooks the over at -265. That means a $265 bet pays a $100 profit if this fight goes to a decision.
Fans who feel the fight will end earlier can enjoy a +225 payout (wager $100 and profit $225). But is that a likely outcome?
Both men are accustomed to fighting the full 12 rounds. Guerrero, 31-1-1 and a champion at four different weight classes, has fought five consecutive decisions, winning all five. He has 18 knockouts to his credit, but none over top-shelf foes.
Mayweather, fighting for just the third time in three years, has 26 knockouts, but has just two in his past eight fights dating back to 2005. One was against an overmatched Ricky Hatton and the other was a sucker punch against Victor Ortiz.
"When you put a boxer who prides himself on not getting hit against a guy stepping up in weight class as well as stepping up in quality of competition, you have a recipe for a decision," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
"We expect Mayweather to fight patiently and conservatively and to preserve that unbeaten streak and the money-making opportunities that come with it."
There are additional longshot opportunities to bet on, such as ‘will Floyd win in the first three rounds' which is a +2200 payout. The least likely scenario is a draw, which pays out at +2800.