The Boise State Broncos are a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games against the Fresno State Bulldogs, and will try to keep that winning streak going on the road this Friday night at Bulldog Stadium. Fresno State is a 3-point favorite at home at most books, with some moving to -3.5 as of Wednesday, according to OddsShark.com.
Boise State got off to a disastrous start to the season, suffering a rare blowout loss of 38-6 on the road against the Washington Huskies. Playing on the road usually doesn't faze the Broncos, who are 22-3 SU in their last 25 road games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21, but they obviously didn't have it against Washington. Since then the Broncos have put things together offensively, averaging 52 points per game in home wins over Tennessee-Martin and Air Force.
Offense won't be a problem for Fresno State this season with senior quarterback Derek Carr under center. Carr has racked up 661 passing yards and eight touchdown passes in just two games, leading the offense to 52 points in overtime against Rutgers and 41 against Cal Poly. But will the defense hold this team back? After it allowed 51 points to Rutgers and 25 to FCS team Cal Poly, early returns don't look good on the unit.
With both teams looking sharp on offense and showing vulnerabilities on defense this season, the OVER might be worth a look, as it is currently set at 68 points. The total has gone OVER in three of the last five games between these two teams.
Trends always need to be taken with a grain of salt as teams change from year to year. However, in a game that looks pretty evenly matched on paper, Boise State's 11-1 SU and ATS record in its last 12 games against Fresno State sticks out as a pretty clear scale-tipper. Until the Bulldogs prove that they can beat this team (or that they can get things together on defense), we're going with Boise State in this spot.
PICK: Boise State +3.0 | Computer Prediction: 49-45 Boise State (from Odds Shark college football computer)