The Colorado State Rams are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games, and will try to squeeze out a cover against the Alabama Crimson Tide this Saturday in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are a 39.5-point favorite at home, according to OddsShark.com, but you have to wonder if they have the impetus to rout the Rams on the heels of a draining win last week.
After opening up a 35-14 lead on the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama looked well on its way to another blowout victory. But Johnny Manziel wasn't going down without a fight, making it a game right down to the wire. The Crimson Tide held on for a 49-42 win but failed to cover the spread as an 8.5-point road favorite. After kicking off the season with tough opponents in Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide finally get a breather in their home opener.
Colorado State got its first win of the season last week, defeating FCS Cal Poly 34-17 as a 7-point favorite at home. The Rams also covered the spread as a 14-point underdog on the road against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, losing that game 30-27 on a late field goal.
The Rams are averaging 29.33 points per game and 165 rushing yards per game, totals they won't reach on Saturday against Alabama, but promising stats for a bottom-feeder all the same.
This is one of those games that the Alabama Crimson Tide can pick the score in, depending on how seriously they take it and how long they keep their starters in. If the last few years are any indication, Colorado State could be the pick here; Alabama is 0-5 against the spread in games it is favored by more than 35 points in.
Not only does recent history point to Alabama taking it easy in this game, but logic does too. With a tough game against Texas A&M last week and another tough one next week against Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide will likely want to get this game wrapped up as quickly and injury-free as possible.
Look for Colorado State to eke out a cover.
PICK: Colorado State +39.5 | Computer Prediction: 48-12 Alabama (from OddsShark.com's computer)