The Ole Miss Rebels are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against the Alabama Crimson Tide and will try to cover the spread and pull off an outright upset on the road this Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Mississippi was a 15.5-point road underdog, but bettors were forcing that number down closer to two TDs as of Wednesday.
After pulling in one of the nation's top recruiting classes, there was plenty of national chatter that the Mississippi Rebels might make a bit of noise this season, and so far they have lived up to the hype. Ole Miss outshot Vanderbilt 39-35 in its season opener and cruised to a 44-23 win over Texas, with both wins and covers coming on the road.
QB Bo Wallace leads an attack that is averaging 38 points per game and 490 yards per game through the first three games of the season.
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The Alabama Crimson Tide haven't exactly looked like the well-oiled machine that they did last year, failing to cover the spread in each of their last two games, but are still off to a 3-0 straight up start. Alabama took a comfortable 35-14 lead over Texas A&M two weeks ago, but couldn't stop Johnny Manziel to put the game away, holding on for a 49-42 win.
The Tide followed that up with a lackluster 31-6 win against Colorado State in which T.J. Yeldon and the offense actually struggled; but it is easy enough to write this one off as a sandwich-game letdown between two big SEC games.
While Ole Miss has enjoyed ATS success against Alabama , that success has not translated to any SU success, as the Crimson Tide have won each of those eight games outright. The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five between these SEC rivals.
With Alabama still working out some kinks in the secondary and having its share of trouble on defense in its last two games against Texas A&M, we like Bo Wallace and the fast-paced Ole Miss offense to give them some trouble too; at least just enough for a cover, anyway.
PICK: Ole Miss +15.5 | Computer Prediction: 45-41 Bama (from OddsShark.com's picks computer)