The Saints were a 7-point favorite at home Monday after opening at -5.5, according to OddsShark.com.
New Orleans has played better on the MNF stage, running to a 5-1 ATS mark in six games. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS.
After setting records in futility on defense last year, the New Orleans Saints defense has actually been an asset in 2013. It came up with a goal-line stand to hold off the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, kept the team in the game in Week 2 against Tampa Bay, and shut down Arizona in Week 3.
The Miami Dolphins' front office made big moves this offseason through the draft and free agency to try to put the team into position to fight for an AFC East title, and those moves appear to be paying dividends early.
The Dolphins entered Week 4 ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring defense with 17.7 points per game against, and the passing attack has improved with Mike Wallace opening up the middle of the field as a deep threat.
In their last 17 games as a favorite at home, the New Orleans Saints are 14-3 SU and ATS. Miami entered the season with a 3-11 SU and 7-7 ATS record as a road underdog, but are 2-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog this year.
The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last seven games as a road underdog and in four of New Orleans' last five games as a home favorite. The total for Monday night's game is currently set at 48.5 points.
Both teams pass the eye test so far this season, and this could end up being a really good game if Miami can keep the Saints from getting on a roll.
At home, New Orleans has a way of running away with games, and the Dolphins will need to keep the ball out of Drew Brees' hands with some clock-eating drives to avoid that result.
Pick: Saints -7 | Computer Prediction: 28-25 Saints (we disagree with the NFL picks computer here)