Betting Trends: NFL Week 1 points to over bets in New Orleans, Buffalo

Chris Graythen

The point spread remains the darling of NFL bettors, but Week 1 sees several trends that suggest over-under betting could be profitable. Check out the odds, trends and analysis from Odds Shark.

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints finished last season with the best passing attack in the NFL with 312.3 passing yards per game. The Atlanta Falcons weren't far behind ranking, sixth with 281.8 passing yards per game.

These numbers probably had plenty of people leaning towards betting the OVER (which is currently set at 54.0), and the betting trends make this side even more tempting. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six Saints season openers and 5-0 in the last five games between these two teams in New Orleans.

NFL Week 1 betting trends focus on totals, spreads, angles and head-to-head action. Jacksonville, the longest of longshots in the Super Bowl odds, has actually been the best Week 1 bet, going 12-2 ATS in 14 openers. And the NFL computer predictions suggest the Jaguars will win and cover again at home against Kansas City Sunday.

The New England Patriots are an incredible 18-1 SU in their last 19 games against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has home field Sunday, but that hasn't helped the Bills lately, as the Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Buffalo.

Factor in a rookie quarterback under center, and the Bills are understandably the biggest home underdog on the board at +9.0. The computer prediction is 40-20 Pats, so an easy OVER bet if the computer is right.

The Dallas Cowboys have home-field advantage Sunday night when they take on the New York Giants, but it has been anything but an advantage in recent years. New York is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six road games against the Cowboys, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at AT&T Stadium.

To make matters worse for Dallas, the Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against NFC East opponents. Bettors might find some value in New York +3.5.

Betting trends point to a bad week for Sunday's other big underdog, too. The lowly Oakland Raiders enter their Week 1 road game against Indianapolis as a 10-point underdog, and are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a dog.

Conversely, Indianapolis is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

St. Louis is a 4.5-point home favorite Sunday against Arizona, but recent betting trends point to some value on the Cardinals. The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 season openers, 1-7 SU in their last eight home games against Arizona and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

See matchup reports, live odds and tons of analysis and picks at OddsShark.com before kickoff. Follow them on Twitter as well.

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