NFL Computer Predictions: Week 1 betting points to road teams

Ronald Martinez

Road teams were just 8-8 ATS last year in Week 1, but the Odds Shark NFL picks computer says they will go 12-4 ATS. It already picked the Denver game right, but how about the remaining 15 games?

The New York Giants are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Dallas Cowboys -- and they're perfect (4-0 SU and ATS) since the new Cowboys Stadium opened. Big Blue has turned big profits in this Week 1 role as an underdog (+3.5), too, going 8-2 ATS in 10 recent games while getting points in Vegas.

The betting trends support the Giants -- who face a Dallas squad riding a pathetic 2-12 ATS streak within the NFC East -- and so do the NFL Computer Predictions. The system is projecting 29.5 points for the Giants and 22.7 points for the Cowboys.

With so many signs pointing to New York, the Giants are looking like a great value bet. And if the computer is correct, so are road teams in general as it predicts visitors will be 12-3 ATS on the weekend.

The Giants aren't the only underdog that the computer is predicting to pull off an outright upset this Sunday. Coming into the season as one of the biggest longshots in the NFL to make the playoffs, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars find themselves as a 4-point underdog at home Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The computer projects a low-scoring 10-7 game with Jacksonville prevailing. With just 17 points projected, the UNDER 41 could be a strong bet. Jacksonville has been the NFL's best Week 1 bet over the years (12-2 ATS) and even stronger when they open the season at home (8-1 ATS).

Other teams projected to pull off outright upsets by the computer include the Atlanta Falcons (33) over the New Orleans Saints (26), and the Minnesota Vikings (25.9) over the Detroit Lions (19.9). Atlanta is a 3-point underdog in New Orleans while Minnesota is a 5.5-point underdog in Detroit.

On the other side of the spectrum, the computer deems New England a worthy double-digit road favorite. The Patriots enter Buffalo as a 9.5-point road favorite and are projected to come out on top by nearly 20 points (40.2 to 20.4). The Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Buffalo.

The Seattle Seahawks are a popular Super Bowl pick this year and they go into their Week 1 matchup against the Carolina Panthers as a 3.5-point road favorite. The computer projects the Seahawks to cover that spread with ease (32-21).

Other teams projected to cover the spread as favorites are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.2) over the New York Jets (16.6) and the Washington Redskins (27.2) over the Philadelphia Eagles (13.9). Tampa Bay is -3.5 at New York and Washington is -3.5 at home.

Only Pittsburgh, Washington and Jacksonville will follow Denver's lead as a home team covering the spread if the following predictions hold up.

Week 1 NFL Odds courtesy of from earlier in the week.

Baltimore 27 - Denver 35.6 (-7.5 DEN, 49.5 O)

Minnesota 25.9 - Detroit 19.9 (-5 MIN, 47 U)

Cincinnati 25.7 - Chicago 27.4 (-4 CIN, 45 O)

Oakland 13.5 - Indianapolis 21.2 (-10 OAK, 49 U)

Seattle 32 - Carolina 21.1 (+3.5 SEA, 45.5 O)

Atlanta 33 - New Orleans 26 (-2 ATL, 54 O)

Kansas City 7.5 - Jacksonville 9 (+4 JAC, 39.5 U)

New England 40.2 - Buffalo 20.4 (+10 NE, 53 O)

Miami 18.1 - Cleveland 15.8 (+1.5 MIA, 41 U)

Tampa Bay 22.2 - NY Jets 16.6 (+2.5 TB, 41.5 U)

Tennessee 13.9 - Pittsburgh 24 (-6.5 PIT, 43.5 U)

Arizona 12.9 - St. Louis 16.5 (-4 ARI, 40 U)

Green Bay 28.5 - San Francisco 30.2 (-4.5 GB, 50.5 O)

NY Giants 29.5 - Dallas 22.7 (-3 NYG, 49 O)

Philadelphia 13.9 - Washington 27.2 (-3.5 WAS, 51 U)

Houston 27.9 - San Diego 22.6 (+2.5 HOU, 46 O)

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