2014 AFC Championship, Patriots vs. Broncos: Betting odds & prediction


The AFC Championship Game odds favor Denver, but the Patriots have dominated the spread against the Broncos in recent years. See the latest betting trends, computer prediction and more.

The New England Patriots are just 2-7 against the spread over their last nine road games, but will look to turn the tide away from home in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday in Denver taking on the Denver Broncos.

The Patriots are currently a 4.5-point underdog on the road after being quickly bet down from an open of -6.5 Sunday night.

These teams have met three times in the playoffs and the home team won and covered each time, a stat that gives a boost to Denver fans looking to bet on the Super Bowl.

Neither team has been a good bet in the playoffs in recent years, though. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their past nine playoff games, while the Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 playoff games.

For the third straight year, New England made quick work of its opponent in the Divisional round coming out of the bye with a blowout win. The Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball in a 43-22 win over Indianapolis on Saturday.

Their to the rush paid off against the Colts with 234 yards and six rushing touchdowns. While Tom Brady is still the face of this New England offense, Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount have emerged as a legitimate one-two punch in the running game to give this team a balanced attack on offense.

The Broncos have had their struggles on defense this season, but those struggles were not present in an impressive 24-17 win over the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. A 17-point fourth quarter by the Chargers made the final score look much closer than the game actually was, as the Broncos held a 17-0 lead heading into the fourth and controlled the clock with an unspectacular but efficient day on offense.

After a streak of high-scoring OVERs through much of the season, the Broncos have played now played four straight UNDERs, according to the AFC title game odds preview.

Denver's postseason hiccup against Baltimore last year is officially in the past, and all eyes are now on the future.

New England has owned this series in recent years with a 4-0 SU and ATS record over the Broncos since 2011. All four of those games went OVER the total, including this year's matchup between the two teams in New England that the Patriots went on to win 34-31 in overtime.

The stage is set for another epic battle between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and the two greatest of this era.

Brady is 10-4 SU in games against Peyton Manning, but one of those four losses came the last time these two quarterbacks met in the AFC Championship Game when Manning's Colts beat Brady's Patriots 38-34 in 2006.

Computer Prediction: 37-33, Denver

Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Game betting trends: (from Odds Shark NFL database)

Home team has won and covered three playoff meetings of these teams

Past four meetings played OVER the total

Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS past six vs Broncos

Patriots are 2-7 ATS past nine road games

Patriots are 7-2 ATS past nine games as underdogs

Broncos have played four straight UNDERs

Denver is 8-3 ATS past 11 games overall

Broncos are 2-7 ATS past nine playoff games

Patriots are 3-9 ATS past 12 playoff games

Patriots won and covered eight straight vs AFC West teams

Broncos on 0-5 SU and ATS run vs AFC East teams

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