The Indianapolis Colts completed an epic 28-point second half comeback last Saturday to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and book a trip to New England to take on the Patriots this week.
The question for bettors will be whether they believe that Andrew Luck's mates spent all their energy in that game and have anything left against a Patriots team that opened as a 7-point favorite at home.
Historically, a pair of key trends point to Indy covering this AFC Divisional Playoff spread. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Foxboro and the Pats have been bleeding money at home in the playoffs (2-6 ATS since 2008).
The Colts defense that held opponents to just 6.7 points per game over the last three weeks of the season was nowhere to be found on Saturday, giving up 31 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half.
But behind Andrew Luck's 443 passing yards and four passing touchdowns, the Colts roared back to a 45-44 victory. With the win, Indianapolis improved to 4-0 SU and ATS over its last four games.
[ Odds Shark AFC Divisional Playoff Computer Prediction: 29-25 Patriots ]
New England's offense struggled in the early stages of the season averaging just 19 points per game through the first five games of the year, but eventually came alive and averaged 31.7 points per game over the last 11 games.
The Patriots ended up going a modest 8-8 ATS but were able to earn a first round bye with a 12-4 SU record. All four of New England's losses came on the road. At home, the Patriots were a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS this season, setting up the possibility of the week's only football betting odds blowout.
Over the last three meetings between these two teams, the Patriots are 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS. Andrew Luck's one game against the Patriots came last year in a 59-24 loss at Foxboro. The total has gone OVER in each of the last four games between these two teams and in five of New England's last six games.
Indianapolis has proven this year that it can beat anyone. They have gone into San Francisco to beat the 49ers and have beaten both Denver and Seattle at home. In order to beat New England this week, the Colts will likely have to engage in a shootout, as it is hard to see the defense shutting down Tom Brady and company on New England's home field.
Last week's comeback showed that the Colts are never out of a game, but the defense is going to have to be a lot better to give the team a shot in this one.
Colts vs Patriots Trends:
Colts are 4-1 ATS past five trips to New England.
Patriots are just 2-6 ATS at home in playoffs since 2008.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS when favored at home.
Colts have played six straight OVERs on road vs. AFC East teams.
Patriots have played five straight OVERs at home vs. AFC South teams.
Patriots are 16-2 SU, 11-6-1 ATS vs. AFC South since 2003.
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