With the playoffs just about set, it's time to dispense with the niceties and start focusing on which teams are most likely to win the MLS Cup.
Oct 12, 2010 - The Supporters Shield is all but decided (congratulations Galaxy). All eight playoff spots are essentially set (thanks for trying Wizards). And it's long been known who will get the No. 3 pick in the SuperDraft (United really sucked the life out of that race, didn't they?).
With that in mind, I've decided it's much more relevant to stop throwing bones to those teams "On the Outside Looking In" and focus on the eight teams that still have a chance to win some silverware. Specifically, my rankings will focus on the likelihood that each team will win the MLS Cup.
This year's Race for the Cup is as wide open as it has ever been. Sure, we've had No. 8 qualifiers make the finals and even win the Cup -- as recently as last year -- but this year's likely playoff teams just feel different. None of them appear to be backing in (well, except the Crew) and all have taken turns, at one time or another, as either the best team in the league or at least the hottest.
Take the Columbus Crew. The argument can definitely be made that despite their No. 2 seeding in the Eastern Conference, they might be the weakest team of the bunch and, at least, the one currently on the worst form. Their two points in the last five matches and failure to beat any MLS team other than DC United since Aug. 21 certainly doesn't speak well of the likelihood that they'll make a long playoff run.
But, this is a team that as recently as Sept. 4 was tied for the lead in the Supporters Shield race. It might seem unlikely that they'll make a Cup run, but it would hardly qualify as a huge upset if they did.
The likely No. 8 team, Colorado, has been on such a roller-coaster that they have looked like one of the best teams in the league, one incapable of winning outside of Colorado and one that now appears to be as dangerous as anyone.
Enough of this, though, you've come here for hot, sweet rankings and that's what I intend to feed you.
1. Real Salt Lake (52 points): It's pretty obvious that whatever RSL's faults may be away from "El Castillo", they are pretty much unbeatable in Sandy, Utah. Although they may only end up playing one game at home during the playoffs, I just can't see them losing in the first round and I'm not as sure about anyone else getting through. Even on the road, they don't lose very often (just once since May 1). At home they have been literally unbeatable, and they tend to win there, too (tied for the most wins in MLS).
2. Los Angeles Galaxy (56 points): They've already pretty much locked up home-field advantage for the first two rounds of the playoffs and that really should count for something (they've won nine times at Home Depot Center). Watching any one match, especially for the last couple of months, can really leave you unimpressed. The body of work, though, is impressive. Throw in the fact that they are as talented as any MLS team and I think they are still a co-favorite, no matter their warts.
3. New York Red Bulls (48 points): Barring a surprising turnaround, NYRB will finish atop the Eastern Conference. With 29 points at home (nine wins, two ties), they are going to be the favorites in any match played at Red Bull Arena. Even before they had Thierry Henry and Rafa Marquez, this was a team bound for the playoffs. Now, they are one of the most talented MLS sides ever assembled.
4. FC Dallas (50 points): You may think that a team that hasn't lost in 19 matches would be higher on this list, but the fact of the matter is that they are going to have to "win" in order to raise the MLS Cup and they will almost certainly have to do that at least once on the road. As of today, they have just the sixth most wins in MLS, just four of which have come on the road and none of those four were against playoff teams. Penalty kicks seems to be their likely path to the final and that's always a crapshoot. Luckily for them, they have more practice at that than any other team (eight successful penalties, twice as many as any other team).
5. Seattle Sounders (45 points): To be honest, I feel a bit sorry for whoever draws the Sounders. Whether it's the Galaxy, Crew or Red Bulls, it seems unfair for any of those teams to have to play a side on as good form as this in the first round (30 points in their last 13 matches). Qwest Field is finally turning into the fortress you'd expect out of a constantly sold out and loud arena, and one team ahead of them in the standings is going to have to play its first playoff game there. That said, it's hard to put the Sounders any higher on this list since it's highly unlikely they get to play more than one match there.
6. San Jose Earthquakes (43 points): Those first five teams could probably be jumbled around without much argument from me. I'd have a harder time calling any of these three favorites. The Quakes, I think, are the best of this bunch. They play a conservative style that has led to lots of low-scoring games and get an inordinate amount of their scoring from one player -- Chris Wondolowski has scored nearly half of their goals and no other player has more than three. Just two players -- defender Tim Ward and goalkeeper Jon Busch -- have recent MLS playoff experience, a recipe for "just happy to be here" syndrome.
7. Columbus Crew (46 points): Harsh? Maybe. Whether it's the schedule, the lack of depth on the roster or some other reason, the fact remains that no team has played worse over their past five games than Columbus -- and yes that includes DC United, Houston, Chivas USA and every other bottom-feeding team. Of course they have a chance to turn it around and maybe some rest will allow them to do that, but right now the Crew look like a wounded animal. The only question is whether they are looking for someplace to lie down or for something to attack.
8. Colorado Rapids (42 points): If the playoffs started today, the Rapids would be stuck playing the Red Bulls. Simply put, I think that makes Colorado the least likely team to advance past Round 1. Head-to-head, I actually think they are better than the Crew, but using my criteria of "team most likely to win the Cup" I think it's hard to put the Rapids any higher. If they can manage to catapult the Quakes and get a shot at the Crew, I'd consider the Rapids the favorites in that series.
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