The Spain-Portugal bid has nine votes, if you're to believe Spanish representatives. More readily, the Spain-Portugal bid has nine votes, if you're to believe a Spain-based Englishman's reporting, though in fairness, Sid Lowe is the standard. If he says Spain feels they've got nine, then they feel they've got nine:
Spain thinking 9 votes tied up now. But are they? And can they add the other 3?
Those nine votes are believed to be Argentina, Brazil, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Qatar, Paraguay, and Turkey's, in addition to their own. Twelve votes are needed to secure the bid.
How does Spain make up the difference? If they have nine, there's a path to doing so. The first round of voting will almost certainly eliminate the Netherlands-Belgium bid, and if they truly have nine (perhaps more, if they can pick up some of the Netherlands-Belgium support), they will at least survive to a third round, by which time one of Russia or England will be eliminated.
At that point, it comes down to where the orphaned votes fall. If Russia or England are eliminated, it's difficult to imagine the Spain-backed bid not picking up three more votes.
Wait - Sid Lowe is a BlackBerry guy? I would have bet iPhone.