Yohan Cabaye to Paris Saint-Germain
This one has suddenly looked a lot more likely in recent days. New PSG manager Laurent Blanc (Larry White to Joe Kinnear) has expressed his admiration for the player, and reports are circling that a £20m bid is imminent. That will likely be rejected, but PSG can and probably will go higher. It's unlikely to see Newcastle not cashing in for what would represent a huge profit for the club.
Odds: Very likely. Expect this one to ramp up in the coming days.
Wayne Rooney to Arsenal or Chelsea
There's been a lot of stuff flying around over Rooney's situation lately, in all directions, from all directions. Suggestions he'll stay, suggestions he'll go, former Manchester United staff talking on the situation, current Arsenal and Chelsea players speaking in the press about how much they'd love to sign him. Plenty of people are being briefed, it's very complicated, and nobody really knows for sure what's going on.
Sky Sports say that Rooney's talks with Moyes will be postponed until tomorrow or Thursday, but if Rooney doesn't want to take a wage cut then it's very difficult to see this being resolved with him staying at United. And if people are prepared to pay his current wages, then it's hard to see why he'd want to take a wage cut at all. Chelsea and Arsenal seem to be very much of the belief they can get him, and neither of these are too outlandish. Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona and Real Madrid remain dark horses that can't quite be written off yet, either.
In short, this one will take a while to resolve. United seem to be taking their time over getting the deal done, and that can only mean they're also open to letting him go. If you were desperate to keep a player who wanted contract talks, wouldn't you sort it out straight away? Get the deal done before his head gets turned by other clubs? Stop the press rumours linking him with a move away every day? It increasingly appears that if a club wants to come in for Rooney at his current value, then they can have him.
Odds: Likely to leave, but anyone's guess where he'll end up.
Edinson Cavani to Paris Saint-Germain
Along with Yohan Cabaye, Blanc also spoke of how much he likes Cavani, but this one has the problem that Napoli really, really don't want to sell. As we've seen with the farcical pursuit by Chelsea, it's the release clause or nothing if any club wants to get this deal done, and that's a lot of money. Maybe not even that great value.
Additionally, PSG aren't really that desperate for strikers anyway -- can they really fit Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani into the same team? How? Paying an eye-watering price for Cavani in order to play him on the wing? Going 4-4-2? Wouldn't Wayne Rooney be a better fit, and available for a third of the transfer fee and probably not too much less in wages? PSG's "throw money at it now, ask questions later" approach might see this deal getting done regardless, but there are a lot of problems here.
Odds: Probably unlikely -- nobody seems to want to pay that release fee.
Cristiano Ronaldo to Manchester United
Our heads were turned recently by an alarmingly bold statement from Graham Hunter, who is generally in the know when it comes to Spanish deals, that this had a "better than evens" chance of happening. However, Hunter is referring to a deal taking place in subsequent windows, not this one. He rightly points out that much of next summer will be consumed by the World Cup, leaving Ronaldo just months away from being able to agree to a deal to sign for whatever club he pleases, for free.
In short, the situation appears to be that there's no way Ronaldo is leaving this window, but if his contract doesn't get sorted out pretty soon -- it probably won't be -- and United will be the favourites to step in and sign him. For this summer, however, it's probably best to assume he's staying.
Odds: Apparently very likely in future, but next to no chance this window.
Roberto Soldado to Tottenham Hotspur
If Tottenham want Soldado to lead their line next season, they'll need to pay his £30m release clause to get it done. That looks unlikely -- it's a lot for a fairly old striker, and it'll be either him or David Villa going to White Hart Lane this summer. Villa's wages are probably significantly more, but the transfer fee would be greatly reduced -- a deal for either probably works out about the same or in Villa's favour. This has all the hallmarks of a speculative Spurs/Levy bid to see if a club are interested in selling -- it's highly unlikely that Spurs are going to match that release clause.
Odds: Probably not going to happen unless he suddenly becomes available for a cut price.
Nani to Roma
Gazzetta report that Roma are intending to open talks about Nani, and it seems like it could be a good deal for all parties, which usually means that things are likely to go ahead. United seem increasingly likely to cut their losses on the winger, who never quite broke into the first team. On the other hand, United haven't really lined up any replacements for their shockingly-inept wingers (going by last season at least), except for Wilfried Zaha, so they could drag this one out a bit to see how their other business is going. At the moment, this is in its infancy.
Odds: Likely, but probably not imminent.
Victor Wanyama to Southampton or Cardiff
Southampton agreed a £12m fee for Wanyama previously, but it appears that they haven't been able to match the midfielder's wages. Cardiff have now come in at a lesser price, £10m, and are apparently convinced they can get the deal done. His move to the Saints is looking increasingly dead, but it remains to be seen whether Cardiff can finalise it or if he's holding out amid rumoured interest from the likes of Liverpool.
Odds: Obviously certain to leave, with Cardiff at present looking very likely.