United States still a heavy favorite to advance, despite draw with Portugal

The U.S. missed an opportunity to secure a spot in the knockout round, but remains a heavy favorite to avoid elimination and advance.

SB Nation's 2014 World Cup Bracket'

The United States was a matter of seconds from sealing its bid to the knockout stage of the World Cup. Then Ronaldo delivered a prefect cross, Silvestre Varela put it in the back of the net and Portugal left the U.S. with work to do. They will face Germany next in the final game of the group stage and while the United States failed to punch its ticket, it remains in very good position to advance to the knockout stage.

Let's take a closer look at some numbers, starting with just how big of heart-breaker that late Portugal goal was before looking ahead.

From 95 percent to zero

Gambletron_usa_vs_portugal

And that's what a gut punch looks like visually. Thanks to Gambletron2000.com, we know the United States had a win probability of 95.1 percent with just minutes remaining in stoppage time. That dropped to 0.5 percent in a flash. With the two late goals, it's easy to forget the U.S. played down 1-0 for much of the match. Portugal's win probability hovered around 75 percent for much of the match until Jermaine Jones tied things up. The U.S. then spiked to a 75-percent win probability a few minutes later when Clint Dempsey put the Americans on top. The win probably slowly crept up, peaking at 95 percent before bottoming out.

What are the chances the U.S. advances?

Despite the late equalizer, the United States is still in good position to advance. You can read through the exact scenarios of what needs to happen for the U.S. to make it out of Group G, but the bottom line is the United States has a 76 percent chance to move on, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. Germany has a 99 percent chance to move on while Ghana and Portugal will need a result and some help to avoid elimination. Ghana is the biggest threat to the United States with a 19 percent chance to advance. Portugal kept its hopes alive with the late draw, but still has just a 5-percent chance to move on, according to FiveThirtyEight.

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