One of the general rules of the football transfer market is that middling clubs should sell players at the peak of their powers. It may well sound counterproductive, but there’s plenty of reason to adhere. By the time a player hits their very best, they’ve also hit maximum market value; from there, clubs are only going to get diminishing returns on the pitch and in the “assets” column.
Of course, it’s a rule and not a law, and there are bound to be exceptions. But after West Ham United’s management meet to discuss the ongoing Dimitri Payet saga, supporters should be neither surprised nor saddened if they opt to sell the restless Frenchman. Exceptions don’t apply in this most archetypal of examples.
First, some context. Payet arrived at Upton Park from Marseille last summer, signing a five-year deal after the French side accepted an offer reportedly in the region of £11 million. The 29-year-old playmaker promptly set the Premier League alight, scoring a string of spectacular goals as Slaven Bilić's Hammers made an unlikely run to the Europa League. His performances proved so good that France coach Didier Deschamps found a way to fit him into his Euro 2016 squad, and Payet scored three goals en route to a place in the Team of the Tournament. A late bloomer, certainly, but blossom Payet had.
Skip forward to January 2017, and Payet, after a comparatively slow start to the new season, has decided he prefers the French Riviera to East London. Hoping for a return to former club Marseille, he has publicly declared his desire to leave West Ham, and refused to play a part in their comfortable Premier League victory over Crystal Palace on the weekend. Early reports suggest that the Hammers are yet to find an agreement with Marseille over a transfer fee, but with the window still open for a couple of weeks yet, discussions are likely to rumble on.
Some fans may well cling to a faint hope of holding onto Payet; after all, with four years still to run on his contract, the Hammers are in no rush to let him leave. He remains not only their best player, but one of the best in the division altogether. So why should they sell?
Firstly, Payet is certainly too old to make any great improvement, and it looks ever more unlikely he’s going to struggle to recover the form that saw him crowned Hammer of the Year for 2015-16. His league goals tally is only a third of what it was this time last year, and though underperforming teammates may well have had as much of a causal effect as his own decline, it’s likely to be some combination of the two. That certainly isn’t to say Payet is a spent force, far from it. His technical skill and dead-ball specialism could make him a useful asset for the remainder of his contract, but the facets of his game that enabled him to bully defenders in open play — a devastating mixture of strength and acceleration — are likely to decline in the interim.
Leaving a sale much longer could well cause a catastrophic decline in Payet’s market value, when they could currently collect something in the region of a very tidy £25 million for the Frenchman. Indeed, the only financial justification for not selling would be if the Hammers were in serious danger of relegation — and subsequently losing out on the Premier League’s lucrative television money — by his sale. But given that they’re looking very unlikely to finish in the bottom three, and the fact that Payet has now been effectively isolated from first-team affairs, that doesn’t really apply in this instance.
That is in no small part down to West Ham’s wealth of very good attacking options. They should certainly be happy at the prospect of giving increased playing time to Argentine youngster Manuel Lanzini, who has shown flashes of great talent en route to scoring four league goals from midfield so far this season. On the flanks, record signing André Ayew, Sofiane Feghouli, and Michail Antonio all represent very capable options, even if injuries have allowed only the latter to hit his stride so far this season. There’s reason to believe there’s more to come from this trio; there’s little evidence there’s more to come from Payet.
All of this is to say that West Ham are very unlikely to fall off a cliff by selling him. They will without doubt lose their most naturally talented player, but having such a star is of little use if he’s stubbornly refusing to shine. In this instance, it makes perfect financial and sporting sense for them to sell as soon as possible, especially if Bilić will be given the freedom to reinvest the money on players whose potential exceeds that which a miserable Payet currently offers.