SB Nation - Adam Cristman

Revs Forwards: A Statistical Analysis of Heaps' "We Will Attack"

TheIndirectKick — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 22:51:21 -0000

If the Revs were awarded a point for every time you've heard the Jay Heaps mantra, "We Will Attack" we'd be comfortably atop the Eastern Conference. But we're not; and the Revs standings-wise are in no better position than 2011. Even though we find ourselves in the cold, dark and lonely basement of the East, can we say that there has been improvement in the main area the rookie coach sought to improve? Earlier this year, I attempted to expose a statistical difference in a Nicol-coached New England Revolution squad versus a Heaps one to see if the attack was indeed more potent. The results were inconclusive.

This time I chose to isolate the data strictly to the forwards. Are the attackers doing what they are paid to do and scoring goals? The 2012 campaign is now 82% complete and with injuries ending seasons and new transfers only providing limited data to analyze them by it became difficult to evaluate expected production over an entire season.

A new stat category was needed.

Taking the total minutes in an MLS season (34 games * 90 min = 3,060) and dividing that by the result of minutes played divided by goals scored per forward you can determine roughly what you could expect a forward to score if he were to play every minute of the season. Obviously you can't expect a forward or really anyone to play every minute of the season, but the stat can provide an accurate enough estimate. We are going to call this category "Projected Goals - Full Season." Check out the data below comparing the 2011 forwards to the 2012 group. Who's better?

GP=Games Played, GS=Games Started, Minutes, Goals Scored, Goals per 90 minutes, Projected goals over a season. All data taken from MLSsoccer.com. Projections are estimates only and not fact.

Isn't it sad to see how lethal Saer Sene could have been if he was healthy? A projection of roughly 17 goals is Taylor Twellman-esque! Let's agree that a minimum minutes played threshold needs to be determined before we can consider it a legitimate set of data accurate enough to forecast by. For example, in the 2011 forwards pool we can confidently say there is no way you can expect Illija Stolica to score 42 goals or that Diego would net 20. Let's compromise and say 400 minutes is enough data.

Conclusions: What does the data tell us?

Saer Sene and Jerry Bengtson are the real deal. This duo, if paired together over the course of a season could realistically tally somewhere near 20-30 goals a season. Point FO.
Goals per 90 minutes played looks more promising in the 2012 crew.
Dimitry Imbongo will be interesting to reanalyze at the conclusion of the season with more data available. The 'Bongo is still a question mark.
Blake Brettschneider is not producing enough to warrant any additional starts.
Saer Sene / Jerry Bengtson have proved more lethal than a Rajko Lekic / Milton Caraglio duo. Hindsight.
It appears that keeping Caraglio or Lekic would have proved just as effective and possibly cheaper than bringing Jose Moreno. This point is moot with the introduction of Bengtson.

The 2011 and 2012 teams are only separated by approximately four goals based on current projections. Is that really an improvement in attacking? Yes and no. While overall it is not, when looking at who is scoring the goals it is. The can be seen when analyzing what percentage of the total goals were actually scored by forwards. In 2007, the last time the New England Revolution made to MLS Cup, 53%, or 27 of the team's 51 goals were scored by forwards Adam Cristman, Pat Noonan and Taylor Twellman. In 2006 that number was 54%. In 2011 a paltry 37% of the Revs goals were scored by forwards showing a clear lack of quality and potency up top. In 2012 however, that number spikes back up to 51% mirroring the performance data of MLS Cup-caliber Revs squads.

We can be confident that our attackers are better this year. The front five of this squad, with an off-season together could prove to be dangerous next year. With promising projections and quality attackers this can allow the sole focus for this front office this off-season to be strengthening the back four.

What do you make of the projections? What additional conclusion did you make from the comparison chart? Let us know in the comment section.

Follow @theIndirectKick

Musket Rounds: Oh What A Hangover Edition

Steve Stoehr — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 14:23:09 -0000

Hello everybody and welcome to our Thursday post-Independence Day Hangover edition of Musket Rounds! Despite taking the last two days off, we actually don't have too many interesting or relevant links to bring you. It could be that news has been slow, it could be that I need to start casting a wider net, or it could be that I'm tired and can't be bothered to be thorough. Whatever it may be, let's get started.

Revolution Links

Tactical shift maximizes strengths of Sene, Feilhaber | New England Revolution
Jeff Lemieux caught up with Jay Heaps and Saer Sene about the tactical surprise they sprung on Saturday and the benefits it could have going forward.

MLS Notes: Pearce sidelined for Revs game, Rowe ruled out, and more - Soccer By Ives
Uh-oh. The Concussion Curse has struck again. Kelyn Rowe is out with a concussion this weekend, so Lord knows when he'll be back. Also, Heath Pearce won't be suiting up against the Revs, so I guess there's that.

Riders Offer Bus to Gillette - New England Soccer Today
The Midnight Riders are offering a way to Gillette from in the city (Boston, that is). I suggest you guys jump on it if you can!

Other Soccer Links

Davis: Hope for big TV jackpot behind MLS’ enthusiasm for New York, New York | The Footy Blog | Blogs | theScore.com
Jason Davis, one of my all-time favorites, has put together a piece on MLS's quest for a second New York franchise, and why they seem to be breaking the established mold in a bid to get it.

Cristman Retires - New England Soccer Today
Former Revolution striker Adam Cristman retired Tuesday due to concussion problems. You hate to see this happen to any athlete, and we wish him the best.

Rangers’ U.S. trio almost surely heading out of Glasgow now | ProSoccerTalk
News that the historic Glasgow club had been denied admittance into the Scottish Premier League leaves almost zero chance that Carlos Bocanegra and two other Americans at Ibrox will be sticking around. So this means that the chances of Boca or Bedoya (or I guess Edu, but probably not) returning to MLS - via allocation - is even higher.

LA Galaxy Roundup, May 25th: Suit Up!

Josie Becker — Fri, 25 May 2012 23:54:00 -0000

Howdy partners! It's time for an afternoon roundup of all things LA Galaxy. Hopefully this'll be more enjoyable that a hare stuck in a brier patch. Cause well, there ain't nothing fun about that, I tell you what. So put up your boots and let's do some quick hits to get you to your weekend:

If you haven't heard yet, after their match in Houston the Galaxy are scheduled to play the Carolina Railhawks in Cary, North Carolina on Tuesday. This match won't be televised, but it may be streamavized so stay tuned. So close to the match in Houston, I doubt the Galaxy have any starters play the Railhawks.
The Galaxy youth teams are going to be competing in the Copa LA youth soccer tournament in Riverside this memorial day weekend. Those of y'all in the Inland Empire aught to check that out.
Hector Jimenez has been suspended for an extra match and fined an undisclosed amount for his studs up tackle. Not only will he miss the Houston match, but he'll miss the Galaxy's next MLS match June 17th.
Adam Cristman has been placed on the Disabled List with a concussion. He won't be available until July 8th.
Macy's and Calvin Klein are the official clothiers of the LA Galaxy, and the 2012 suits have arrived! That's them in the lead photo. If y'all would like to meet Juninho, he'll be making an appearance at Macy's South Coast Plaza on May 31st at 6pm. If you buy $25 of clothing, they'll give you a free football for Juninho to sign. Boy howdy.

Now, tomorrow's match broadcast begins at 11:30 am on NBC Sports Network, and the US-Scotland match is on right after. So be sure to check in here, and have a great memorial day weekend.

LA Galaxy Have Had Sounder Days, Fall To Seattle 2-0

Josie Becker — Thu, 03 May 2012 04:03:56 -0000

The LA Galaxy were defeated 2-0 by Seattle Sounders FC at CenturyLink Field in Seattle Wednesday night. The Galaxy were without David Beckham, Robbie Keane, Todd Dunivant, and Josh Saunders, which forced Bruce Arena to get creative. Bryan Gaul, Bryan Jordan, Marcelo Sarvas, and Adam Cristman all stepped off the reserve field and onto the senior roster. The win was the Sounders first ever win over the Galaxy at Seattle.

Seattle's first goal came just before half time. Mauro Rosales found himself in space on the left wing and sent a cross into the box. It met Eddie Johnson's head, which his center of the box shot going to Bill Gaudette's right. Gaudette had looked good up to that point in relief, but was beat fairly easily on that one.

Fredy Montero had a cracker of a goal for Seattle to begin the second half. Three minutes in, Montero finds himself with space about thirty five yards out, and just lets the ball fly. The ball floats up over Gaudette's outstretched hand and dips into the far corner of the net. The goal was Montero's 15th from outside the box in 2012, the most in MLS. This ended a 1,083 minute goalless doubt for Montero.

The game was the end of many streaks. The Galaxy lost for the first time in five matches in Seattle. LA gave up two goals at Seattle for the first time. The Galaxy gave up more the one goal for the first time in five MLS matches. Edson Buddle entered the game, but did not score, the first time in four matches against Seattle.

For the Sounders, they kept their streak rolling against the weaker squad trotted out by the Galaxy. Going into tonight's match they had kept four clean sheets in their last seven MLS matches, now it's five clean sheets in eight. Seattle had only conceded one goal from open play this year, and that number stayed the same.

The Galaxy will get three starters back for the match against the New York Red Bulls on Saturday, and New York will be without Thierry Henry. LA gives up the game in hand with this match, still in the bottom half of the table. Still, a win Saturday and the Galaxy will be caught up and in a good position as they hope May continues to improve from the rough start in March.

Galaxy vs. Dallas: Noonan Goal Salves Dallas Burn

Josie Becker — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 05:36:14 -0000

The LA Galaxy managed to come from behind in stoppage time, drawing level with FC Dallas 1-1 in a result that fairly reflects what happened in the match. Pat Noonan and Brek Shea were the goal scorers, though the match was probably defined by missed opportunities as much as it was by the makes.

The match was saved for the Galaxy in stoppage time, when Landon Donovan sent a long ball into the box. Dallas was able to knock it down but not clear it, and Adam Cristman stepped up to knock it to Pat Noonan. Noonan scored his first Galaxy goal with a roller into the net.

The key moment in the match came in the 48', when David Beckham played a great ball up to Landon Donovan on the right wing from the middle of the pitch. Jair Benitez took Donovan down in the box resulting in a penalty. Robbie Keane wanted to take it, and Donovan gave his consent.

For those looking for controversy over Robbie Keane taking the penalty kick, it doesn't appear to be there. Bruce Arena said that between Landon Donovan, Robbie Keane, and David Beckham he has an abundance of riches when it comes to penalty kicks. While this was the first time since June 23rd, 2007 that Donovan didn't take a penalty kick he was available for, Donovan was fully on board with the plan.

"No conversation," Donovan said after the match. "I wanted him to take it, to get him going"

Certainly it was an opportunity to get Keane into the flow of things, however the attempt going well wide right certainly didn't help the Galaxy's chances in the match. Also, the team couldn't have known there was another penalty to come just a few minutes later.

David Junior Lopes will largely be blamed for the penalty the Galaxy gave up. He made a bad decision in the box, trying to lay it back for Bill Gaudette but inadvertently leaving Gaudette in no mans land. Gaudette picked up a yellow card on his diving attempt at stopping the play, and Brek Shea took the penalty without much drama.

David Beckham got a yellow card for dissent in stoppage time, when the assistant referee decided to play the advantage on a handball just outside the box. It was that sort of night for both teams, a very evenly and sloppily played match, where they were often left to argue for every advantage.

All in all, a fair result though it came about in an unexpected way. This is the third match in a row that the Galaxy have had to deal with heroics past the 80' mark. It's exciting, but some normalcy and consistency would certainly be nice going forward.

Three Star Daily, Apr 25th: Leonardo Returns, Donatello Locates Shredder's Hideout

Josie Becker — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:49:06 -0000

The LA Galaxy had a reserve match yesterday, not against an MLS reserve team but against the LA Blues. Adam Cristman, Chad Barrett, and Hector Jimenez all got in on the scoring action, as the Galaxy held on to win 3-2. Barrett has been in and out of the 11, but Cristman has yet to make an appearance with the senior team this season and Jinenez has been listed as a sub a couple times but doesn't even make the stat page on mlssoccer.com.

Galaxy hold on to beat L.A. Blues 3-2 | LA Galaxy

The other positive thing to come out of yesterday's reserve match was Leonardo getting his first minutes of active play since his knee injury last year. Leonardo played ten minutes of junk time, and surely took it easy out there, but it's an important milestone as he looks to get back on the pitch with the Galaxy.

GALAXY: Leonardo back, briefly, vs. Blues - Soccer Blog - ESPN Los Angeles
CARSON -- Leonardo hadn't made a game appearance in more than a year, and if he's not quite ready to jump back into battle, he deserves some reward....

Raul Mendiola also continues to get time with the reserve team, getting some second half action yesterday. LA is making it clear they see a future for him here, even as he's been courted by teams in Europe.

Red Bulls Beat LA 2-1

Matt Coyne — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 16:43:31 -0000

So I guess we (I) can calm down.

After goals from Kenny Cooper (from Connor Lade and Teemu Tainio) and Thierry Henry (from Dane Richards), the Red Bulls gave up a late one in the 79th minute to Marcelo Sarvas. But they still came away with the victory - and their first two goals - of their Arizona trip. And against a mix of LA Galaxy's first team and reserves to boot.

Official match recap here.

The Red Bulls' line-up: Ryan Meara; Jan Gunnar Solli, Markus Holgersson, Wilman Conde (Stephen Keel 20’), Lade; Richards, Tainio (Brandon Barklage 77’), Dax McCarty, Mehdi Ballouchy; Cooper, Henry

Subs: Jeremy Vuolo, Tyler Ruthven, Jonathan Borrajo, Jhonny Arteaga, Jose Angulo

LA's line-up: Josh Saunders; A.J. DeLaGarza, Andrew Boyens, Tommy Meyer, Sean Franklin (Bryan Gaul 46’); Mike Magee (Chad Barrett 73’), Juninho (Rafael Garcia 73’), David Beckham (Sarvas 66’), Hector Jimenez (Pat Noonan 88’); Paolo Cardozo, Adam Cristman (Jack McBean 58’)

Subs: Brian Perk, J.T. Murray, Justin Davies, Kenney Walker

LA Galaxy Defeat Chivas USA In Final Carson Preseason Match

Josie Becker — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 22:48:45 -0000

After losing all their preseason matches, the LA Galaxy B-squad came out against Chivas USA's A-team and scored three goals before halftime; holding on for a 3-2 win. They still have the preseason tournament in Arizona, and preseason games are meaningless. Still, it was a good showing from a group that could see one or two of their ranks cut by the time this is all over.

Adam Cristman factored into the first two goals. On the first, Cristman was at the top of the box in the 21' and found Pat Noonan to his left. Noonan stutter stepped around his marker, and sent the ball into the back of the net. Ten minutes later, Dan Kennedy misplayed a ball played back to him, and Cristman intercepted then dribbled around him for the second goal. In the 40', it was supplemental draft pick Rafael Garcia who made a great play in the box; finding space and then finding Dan Keat for the third goal.

Chivas was able to come back in the second half for two goals, but the damage had already been done.

"It was a good practice game for our group," said coach Bruce Arena. "Our last couple of games had been good. Today was a good day as far as moving some fitness along. A number of players that hadn't had extended minutes had a good showing. It was another opportunity to evaluate players."

Which is really what it came down to. The Galaxy started Bill Gaudette in goal; T.J. Murray, Bryan Gual, Andrew Boyens, and Justin Davies on the back line; Pat Noonan, Rafael Garcia, Dan Keat, and Hector Jimenez in the middle; and Adam Cristman and Jack McBean up top. A number of those players don't have contracts, and are fighting for their MLS lives.

With Omar Gonzalez on the Injured Reserve (and likely the only player to start the season there) the Galaxy are likely to go into the season with 31 players. With 34 at camp, that means three players are likely to be heading home.

My picks would be Bill Gaudette (three goalkeepers is enough), Justin Davies, and Bryan Gaul (redundant at the forward position). We'll see what happens, it's likely no changes happen until after the Arizona tournament.

LA Galaxy Lose To Montreal Impact In Fourth Preseason Game

kaylaknapp — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 01:05:22 -0000

In 2012, the LA Galaxy have played four preseason games, but only have one win. Not exactly how you'd expect the reigning MLS Cup Champions to fare in these matches. But before we all hit the collective panic button, let's take a deep breath and assess the situation.

Today's game against the newest addition to MLS, the Montreal Impact, was a tough one to watch for the Galaxy fans in attendance, especially in the first half.

The back four, Todd Dunivant, AJ DeLaGarza, Tommy Meyer and Bryan Jordan, weren't nearly as in sync as the 2011 Galaxy defense. With Omar Gonzalez out for most of the 2012 season, Meyer is expected to fill his very big shoes, and DeLaGarza has been thrust into a leadership role in the back line.

Filling the hole that Gonzalez's absence leaves is arguably the biggest concern for the LA this season, and it was made very clear today that there are a lot of kinks that still need to be worked out.

The left side of the Galaxy's defense, with DeLaGarza and Dunivant, was solid as ever; it was the right side that was the weak point today, and Montreal exploited that relentlessly. Jordan and Meyer faced wave after wave of attacks from the Impact's offense, and in the 37th minute, they capitalized. Sanna Nyassi beat Meyer down the flank, cut back towards goal and fired a shot. Nyassi's shot deflected off of Jordan, and goalkeeper Josh Saunders couldn't redirect his dive in time, and watched the ball bounce into the back of the net. It would stay 1-0 Montreal until halftime.

In the midfield, David Beckham did his best to hold down the fort as Kyle Nakazawa, Marcelo Sarvas and Michael Stephens didn't provide much help. The best chance for LA in the first half--actually, the only chance--came from a Beckham free kick. He bent the ball almost perfectly, beating Montreal keeper Donovan Ricketts, but the crossbar robbed him of a beautiful goal.

Aside from that shot, the midfielders didn't attack Montreal at all. Nakazawa was almost non-existent on the left wing, Stephens gave the ball away several times on the right, and Sarvas seemed lost in the middle. There has been a lot of chatter about Sarvas, and how he is similar to Juninho as a player. He showed some of that today, especially aggression and strength when he challenged Montreal players for the ball.

But Sarvas often seemed out of position, and faded into the background. Saunders was constantly yelling at him, telling him to drop here or push forward there. Aside from positioning, he also had a few bad giveaways and weak passes. It will take some time for Sarvas to fit into the equation, and with Juninho back, I'm not sure what role he will play in the Galaxy midfield.

On the attacking end, Edson Buddle and Paolo Cardozo did not link up well together on the front line. The few times the ball made it through the midfield to the final third, the play was quickly neutralized by either a bad pass or give away.

In the second half, Bruce Arena substituted almost the entire lineup. Surprisingly, the subs showed more fluid play than the starters. Adam Cristman and Jack McBean played together up top, and actually strung a few good plays together. McBean was robbed by a superb point-blank save from Ricketts.

An unexpected change came early in the second half, when Jordan came up limping after a clash with a Montreal player. He was replaced by Justin Davies, who had a great second half at right back, far outplaying Jordan's first half efforts.

Montreal notched another goal in the 51st minute, with a great shot from Zarek Valentin beating Galaxy keeper Nick Noble, who came on for Saunders at halftime. Montreal was up 2-0, and it was clear that LA defenders were getting frustrated. Nyassi was cutting up the defense, creating tons of space and testing DeLaGarza and Meyer. They worked together better in the second half, but still have a long way to go. Without DeLaGarza locking down the middle of the defense the whole game, the scoreline would have been much worse.

Montreal added one more goal before the final whistle, when Evan James tapped in a cross from Migual Montaño in stoppage time. The game ended in a 3-0 victory for the Impact, who handed the Galaxy their third preseason loss.

Most of the results so far seem rather negative: the only preseason win for the Galaxy was against the LA Blues, with all their losses coming from games with other MLS teams. Saunders has let in four goals in four games, and the defense isn't gelling yet. The midfield is a bit of a mess, and the forwards aren't creating chances.

Here's what we have to remember: Landon Donovan and Robbie Keane are still away in Europe on loan. Once they return--Donovan will be back this weekend--and Juninho comes back to LA, the middle of the field and the front line will look very different. Defensively, DeLaGarza and Meyer have the potential to be a great team, they just need more time to form a cohesive unit.

Oh, and don't forget: it's still just preseason. This is when the flaws are supposed to be worked out. So hold off on the panic button for a few more weeks, at least.

Trying To Pick The LA Galaxy First Kick Weekend Lineup

Josie Becker — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 22:08:19 -0000

The LA Galaxy have kicked off against the Portland Timbers in their second preseason game, but more importantly the second starting XI of the year has been posted. With each new lineup there's the chance to compare and contrast, and hopefully the First Kick Weekend lineup will become obvious. So let's compare Friday's lineup to today's:

Friday: Josh Saunders; Todd Dunivant, A.J. DeLaGarza, Tommy Meyer, Sean Franklin; Mike Magee, Marcelo Sarvas, Michael Stephens, Paolo Cardozo; Pat Noonan, Adam Cristman

Tuesday: Josh Saunders; Bryan Jordan, Tommy Meyer, A.J. DeLaGarza, Todd Dunivant; Sean Franklin, David Beckham, Marcelo Sarvas, Michael Stephens; Edson Buddle, Paolo Cardozo

Before starting any analysis, the two main concessions are the players on loan (Landon Donovan, Robbie Keane) and Juninho's return. The midfield pool looks something like this then:

Mike Magee, Marcelo Sarvas, Michael Stephens, David Beckham, Landon Donovan, Juninho, Paolo Cardozo, (Sean Franklin)

In the oil industry we call that a bevy of riches. Beckham, Juninho, Donovan, Sarvas seems the most likely, with Stephens and Magee the first of the bench. Of course with Champions League and Beckham leaving for the olympics, it's not like anyone is going to be stuck on the bench. Up top is also heating up:

Pat Noonan, Adam Cristman, Edson Buddle, (Paolo Cardozo), Robbie Keane

Good old versatile Cardozo. Buddle and Keane has to be the opening night pairing. Noonan works for relief, as does the occasional use of Cristman. Then there's the back line:

Todd Dunivant, A.J. DeLaGarza, Tommy Meyer, Sean Franklin, Bryan Jordan (Leonardo) [Omar Gonzalez]

Essentially the same back line from last year, but with the need to replace Omar Gonzalez for most of the season. First round draft pick Tommy Meyer is being challenged to step into that spot. Did you know Bryan Jordan was a trialist signed by Ruud Gullit? Bruce Arena must have been able to re-sign him for a song after declining his option.

So, give it a shot. What lineup would you trot out for First Kick Weekend?