2013 French Open: Advanced Baseline updated forecast

Clive Brunskill

Tracking the changes in the draws and the rankings.

After a couple of rain delays, the first three rounds of the French Open are finally in the books. Below are updated Advanced Baseline forecast tables for both the men's and the women's sides.


Player Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Winner
Rafael Nadal 98.3% 92.4% 74.5% 63.3%
Novak Djokovic 93.9% 88.2% 23.1% 14.8%
David Ferrer 94.0% 73.3% 49.2% 12.8%
Roger Federer 90.3% 77.4% 37.1% 7.1%
Nicolas Almagro 68.3% 20.3% 8.9% 1.1%
Stanislas Wawrinka 65.0% 5.7% 1.7% 0.6%
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 75.1% 16.5% 2.5% 0.1%
Tommy Robredo 31.7% 5.3% 1.5% 0.1%
Richard Gasquet 35.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Kevin Anderson 6.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Kei Nishikori 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Gilles Simon 9.7% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Tommy Haas 63.2% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Viktor Troicki 24.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 6.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Mikhail Youzhny 36.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Nadal's slightly lower odds from the initial forecast are due to his subpar play in the first three rounds, which have weakened his AB rating. A drop of six to seven percent feels about right to me — as Bill Connelly pointed out earlier, Nadal's slow start may be due to transient factors, such as cold weather, that won't last through next week. Dropping his odds any further would be an overreaction to a temporary speed bump.


Player Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Winner
Serena Williams 85.5% 72.0% 55.0% 33.6%
Maria Sharapova 89.0% 75.6% 49.1% 28.7%
Victoria Azarenka 86.4% 70.4% 37.5% 19.8%
Sara Errani 73.5% 45.1% 18.4% 7.4%
Ana Ivanovic 49.9% 22.3% 7.1% 2.3%
Agnieszka Radwanska 50.1% 22.4% 7.0% 2.0%
Jelena Jankovic 63.5% 14.2% 4.5% 1.4%
Angelique Kerber 52.2% 11.4% 4.2% 1.2%
Svetlana Kuznetsova 47.8% 9.9% 3.7% 0.9%
Maria Kirilenko 55.0% 14.0% 3.4% 0.9%
Roberta Vinci 14.5% 6.8% 2.4% 0.5%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 45.1% 9.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Carla Suarez Navarro 26.5% 10.2% 2.3% 0.3%
Jamie Hampton 36.5% 5.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Sloane Stephens 11.0% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Francesca Schiavone 13.7% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2%

Serena has maintained her level of dominance in the early rounds, so why are her odds lower than when they started? At the beginning of the tournament, I predicted there was a high chance of upsets, and that's held fairly true so far: a quarter of the remaining field is unseeded, and only nine of the remaining 16 players are ranked in the top 16. The primary beneficiaries have been Sharapova and Azarenka, whose draws have improved with eliminations to players such as Li Na and Petra Kvitova making their path easier. Their gain is Williams' loss, as she is more likely to face either of the two in the final than when the tournament began.

More importantly, a quarter of the remaining field is American and there are no French players left, locking in the longest-lasting score at 4-0 for the away team.

It rained all week at Waterloo, too. I think we've found their weakness.

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