Wimbledon 2013, updated Week 2 forecast: Murray, Williams emerge as favorites

USA TODAY Sports

Upsets rocked Wimbledon in the first week of play. How have they affected the odds for the surviving players?

Court conditions, black magic, and rigging it for Andy Murray and Laura Robson. These are the best explanations I have so far for Wednesday's carnage at Wimbledon, the most upset-filled day at a Slam in the Open era. Nadal was the canary in the mine on day 1; roughly half the seeds were gone within the first two rounds on both the men's and the women's side, including five of the top 11 men and eight of the top 13 women.

The original forecasts are pretty wrecked at this point. To be fair, most other forecasts are wrecked too, so it's not like Advanced Baseline was the only one that got a lot of it wrong. I'll probably have an entirely separate post looking at all the potential reasons why, but for now I have to live with the shame of knowing RedFoo is better at this than I am.

Below are updated forecast tables for both the men's and women's draw:

Men

Player Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Winner
Andy Murray 85.6% 77.4% 73.6% 44.2%
Novak Djokovic 75.2% 58.9% 43.8% 27.9%
David Ferrer 86.9% 50.8% 20.0% 8.7%
Juan Martin del Potro 79.2% 41.6% 15.2% 6.1%
Tomas Berdych 77.7% 24.4% 12.2% 5.8%
Tommy Haas 24.8% 14.2% 7.2% 2.9%
Fernando Verdasco 78.3% 12.6% 8.8% 1.6%
Mikhail Youzhny 14.4% 8.9% 6.7% 1.6%
Jerzy Janowicz 55.3% 38.7% 5.1% 0.6%
Jurgen Melzer 44.7% 29.5% 3.3% 0.3%
Andreas Seppi 20.8% 5.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Bernard Tomic 22.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Lukasz Kubot 55.5% 18.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Adrian Mannarino 44.5% 13.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Ivan Dodig 13.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Kenny de Schepper 21.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%

Murray's higher odds are mostly due to his remaining draw being orders of magnitude easier than Djokovic's. Regarding the bit of mystery left for Murray's most likely semifinal matchup: Lots of people are already penciling in Janowicz being the only remaining seed left, but AB ranks Jurgen Melzer fairly well on grass. I wouldn't be all that surprised if Janowicz loses on Monday.

Women

Player Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Winner
Serena Williams 87.8% 79.4% 65.6% 59.9%
Agnieszka Radwanska 81.7% 46.5% 13.7% 9.6%
Petra Kvitova 66.5% 44.6% 27.9% 6.4%
Na Li 62.7% 33.7% 8.9% 5.9%
Marion Bartoli 77.7% 49.0% 26.8% 5.1%
Kaia Kanepi 64.8% 9.9% 4.1% 2.4%
Sloane Stephens 69.0% 34.1% 15.9% 2.3%
Kirsten Flipkens 60.3% 25.5% 12.1% 1.9%
Roberta Vinci 37.3% 15.6% 3.4% 1.9%
Sabine Lisicki 12.2% 7.0% 2.9% 1.7%
Carla Suarez Navarro 33.5% 17.2% 8.1% 1.3%
Flavia Pennetta 39.7% 12.7% 4.8% 0.6%
Laura Robson 35.2% 3.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Monica Puig 31.0% 9.7% 2.8% 0.3%
Tsvetana Pironkova 18.3% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Karin Knapp 22.3% 7.3% 1.7% 0.1%

I had to triple-count the numbers when I saw how little Serena's odds actually moved with Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova both gone; a sixty percent chance of winning seemed awfully low.

I'm a little more okay with the general message of the numbers, however, after thinking it through. They're basically saying Serena's skill is high enough that her win odds are completely insensitive to the quality of the field and only depend on her ability to not screw up. A sixty percent chance to win the tournament is still an average of 88 percent to win each remaining match; how much higher a boost should she really get? If there's one thing to remember from this Wimbledon, it's that upsets really do happen and still need to get priced in, so I'm happy to lean on the side of caution.

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