Wow, what an exciting night to be a baseball fan or a schadenfreude enthusiast. I was so caught up in the Sox/Rays/Braves games that I completely forgot that the Padres had a weird early-evening first pitch. So I fired up my MLB At Bat app to see what I had missed so far:

Ah, okay then.

The night continued to unfold in an amazing manner, so incredible that a.) you've probably already heard about it, and b.) it would take to long to summarize here.

I did, however, get this great text from my dad after the Rays won:

"Bad day tonne a red sox or one of their asshole fans. Patriots suck."

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Without further ado here are my 2011 playoff predictions. Please add yours in the comments below.

National League

Division Series - Milwaukee Brewers (96-66) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68)

Prediction: Arizona in 5.

Reasoning: This is just one of those series that I could see going either way. For whatever reason, the Brewers have struggled on offense away from home. I also like the Diamondbacks' spirit, and see their pitching staff doing just enough to allow their offense some late inning dramatics.

Division Series - Philadelphia Phillies (102-60) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)

Prediction: Philadelphia in 4.

Reasoning: The Cards are playing great baseball right now, including recently winning 3 of 4 in Philly. But that was after Philly had started looking forward to the playoffs. No doubt about it, the Cards were the only team playing for something more in that series. This time around, I like Philly's rotation more–who doesn't?–and I'm really not too impressed with the St. Louis pitching staff––their starters are nothing to get excited about and I see at least one blown save from their bullpen in this series.

Championship Series - Philadelphia vs. Arizona

Prediction: Philadelphia in 5.

Reasoning: Again the Phillies pitching is so deep that it's hard not to envision them making it through to the World Series. The great story that was the revival of the Diamondbacks ends here, where Philly's postseason experience will win out.

American League

Division Series - Texas Rangers (96-66) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)

Prediction: Texas in 5.

Reasoning: The Rays made a historic comeback to win the wild card, but last night's incredible events aside, this is more about the collapse of the Red Sox than a hard charge by the Rays, who are just 6-4 in their last 10 and 13-9 in their last 22 games. The two teams recently split 6 games in late August and early September. I see the solid Rangers offense slowly chipping away at the Rays pitching staff until they ultimately crack. I would love to be wrong about this prediction, and wouldn't be surprised to see a pumped up Rays squad rolling through Texas.

Division Series - New York Yankees (97-65) vs. Detroit Tigers (95-67)

Prediction: New York in 4.

Reasoning: I love the Verlander. I've followed the Verlander closely for the past three years. I just don't think he is enough to pick the Tigers. I'm not too high on the rest of the rotation going against a deep and powerful Yankees lineup. The Tigers are another team that has been playing great ball lately, but they've mostly been getting fat on a diet of mediocre to poor AL Central teams. They haven't played a team that finished with a winning record since Aug. 22-25 when they won 3 of 4 in Tampa. The Yankees have atrocious starting pitching for the playoffs after C.C. Sabbathia, but their bullpen is rock solid and their bench is crazy deep. This series will be a slugfest after game 1. I'll take the better offense and the far better bullpen.

Championship Series - New York vs. Texas

Prediction: Texas in 7.

Reasoning: A rematch of the 2010 ALCS, and I see this one turning out in similar fashion. The Yankees offense may be great, but Texas is nearly as good and they don't need to send Freddie Garcia or Bartolo Colon out to the mound.

World Series

Philadelphia vs. Texas

Prediction: Texas in 7.

Reasoning: I'll admit this right now: picking the Phillies to win it all seems too easy, and perhaps too obvious. If we know anything about sports in the age of parity, it's that there is always a surprise lurking around the corner. As sharp as Philly's killer rotation of Halladay, Lee and Hamels looks, I wouldn't want to trust rookie Vance Worley with a starting assignment. Which means they pitch all three on short rest, which will catch up with them at some point. Philly's offense isn't as potent as it once was, so I see all of these games going down to the wire. Call it a hunch, but I'll take the Rangers.

If you aren't familiar with Freakonomics, it is in essence a study of the "hidden side of everything" by applying economic principles to everyday actions. This is my mimicry.

I was in the bathtub one day when I remembered something a Padres player said about a series in Philadelphia this year or last. He had said that the entire series had a great playoff atmosphere and he really enjoyed it. This got me wondering, how have the Padres as a whole performed relative to attendance at Petco Park from recently?

First, a note. Read this article at the risk of your own time; I'm writing this as I crunch the numbers and it's entirely possible that there is no direct effect. The idea of finding random, hidden aspects of baseball is appealing to me, but it's hard to think outside of the box sometimes for ideas to test. So part of my intention is to spark debate and bounce ideas back and forth among GLBers.

Let's take a look at the Padres' home attendance numbers in 2011.

Rank: 18
Total Attendance: 1,844,436
Average Per Game: 25,617
Percent Capacity: 60.0

Just ahead of us is the Houston Astros, which is a little surprising because the team is putrid and their stadium is not new. Just behind us is the Chicago White Sox, which is also surprising because they come from a large city, like the Astros, but are quasi-competitive in the AL Central, unlike Houston.

For quick reference, here are 2010's home numbers:

Rank: 18
Total Attendance: 2,131,774
Average Per Game: 26,318
Percent Capacity: 61.9

Very similar to this year, despite early gate figures that had 2011 attendance up around 25 percent over 2010.

And 2009:

Rank: 20
Total Attendance: 1,922,603
Average Per Game: 23,735
Percent Capacity: 55.8

I first need to establish a definition of low-, medium-, and high-attendance games. I've also made a subset of High called Very High.

The average home attendance from 2009-2011 is 25,209. Since that's pretty close to a clean 25,000, let's do this:

Low: 17,999 and below
Medium: 18,000 - 32,000
High: 32,001 - 40,000
	Very High: 40,001+

I don't want to simply break the categories in thirds, because I'm seeking numbers from extreme attendance differences. And happenstance made love to my leg, look at my breakdown totals:

Low: 43
Medium: 148
High: 23
	Very High: 20

Low and High/Very High are both 43 game samples! That's pretty crazy. Also surprising: nearly as many 40,000+ games as 32,001 - 40,000 games. When the Padres go big, they go big.

The Padres home record from 2009-2011 is 117-117 for a .500 win percentage. Let's look at percentages according to my categories:

Low: 19-24 .442
Medium: 79-69 .534
High: 9-14 .391
	Very High: 10-10 .500

High and Very High combine to be 19-24 for a .442 win percentage, same as Low attendance.

What factors could explain a lower winning percentage in 32,001+ games? Well small sample size, yes. Also, you could assume maybe some of those games are attracting fans due to big market opponents, which typically have a +.500 winning percentage. However, this is not the case. Games against Houston and Pittsburgh helped neutralize games against Philadelphia and San Francisco.

I calculated the winning percentage for our opponents in High and Very High attended games from 2009-2011 by averaging their winning percentage in the same year we played them and weighted it equally based on amount of games played against said opponent. For example, in 2009, we played the Dodgers (.586) in front of 40,000+ fans three times, and the Pirates (.385) with 40,000+ in attendance once. The average winning percentage came out to .536 for those four games.

The winning percentage of our opponents in High and Very High attended games from 2009-2011 was .517. As a reminder, our home winning percentage in all games over this span was .500. Therefore, a winning percentage around .480-.490 could reasonably be expected in these games, yet it's a mere .442.

Conclusion/TL;DR

I believe the Padres have slightly underperformed in front of large crowds at Petco Park with recent ball club. Small sample size prevents a definite conclusion, but the resultant winning percentage in these games is a bit too far from the expected winning percentage.

Recommendation, go to games with 18,000 - 32,000 fellow fans in attendance for best chance to see the Padres win.

Your Turn

Point out my mistakes or your theories in the comments, but don't be a jerk, this is meant to be in good fun!

I'm assuming you're only reading this because you are interested in joining a fantasy league. If you aren't interested, I'm really not sure why you clicked through. Last year, I had to join a random league with a bunch of Tigers fans and several of them failed to keep up with their team. This year, I figured I'd try to recruit some GLBers in hopes that we can maintain a competitive league by way of public shame for those who quit early.

We have a total of 9 slots available in our 12 team league. Live draft is Tuesday, March 29 at 5:45 pm. Standard 5x5, Head to Head.

Please email me at bmasar@yahoo.com if you are interested in joining. First come basis. Together, we can ensure Chase Headley gets drafted!

By pure happenstance, I recently acquired a copy of the San Diego Padres 2010 Team Member Handbook, which is apparently supplied to team members before each year. The smallish, wire bound handbook should be read and reviewed by all team members as a reference to, you know, figure out how they should do their job or something.

Most of the information inside is pretty obvious or uninteresting stuff. But here are some highlights:

"Beach balls or other inflatable items confiscated during events should not be punctured or deflated in the view of guests… Confiscated items are donated to the San Diego City Schools Physical Education Program for students with disabilities." Nice touch.

"At no time should a foul ball or home run ball be thrown back onto the playing field." Take that, visiting Cubs fans.

"Guests with disabilities have the opportunity to be close to their favorite Major Leaguers through a special access program. Individuals wishing to make a reservation should contact Services for Guests with Disabilities at (619) 795-5181." This has to do with batting practice. Another nice touch. Padres are definitely not evil.

"The audio and video graphics celebrating Padres players' home runs at PETCO Park have a distinct military and nautical flavor. The sound of a ship's horn is the actual recording of the Navy's USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), a nuclear aircraft carrier, home ported in San Diego." Did not know that.

"Please note that the Press Box is reserved for working members of the media and front office only. Loitering, cheerleading, clapping or "rooting" for either team is not permitted." Did know the familiar adage, but it's interesting to see it in writing.

"Personalized birthday and other celebratory messages, Scoreboard Surprises, can be displayed on the right field out-of-town scoreboard at PETCO Park for a $50.00 donation to the Padres foundation." Dang, that's actually cheaper than I thought it would be. Granted, it provides little value.

"Rings are limited to one per hand." Burn.

"Necklaces may not be visible at any point." Double Burn

"Teeth must be clean and brushed; breath must be fresh." And triple burn. 

A few days ago, I got my hot little hands on MLB 2K10 for Xbox 360 after doing a fair bit of research before buying. Let me first state that this review only applies to the Xbox 360 and PS3 versions. Apparently, the Wii version is just terrible, an unfortunate trend with sports simulations ported to the Wii. 

Also, as can be expected, I've played with the Padres almost exclusively, so this review will definitely have a Padres-centric slant. Not that that would be unwelcome here, but it's worth mentioning anyway.

The last baseball game I owned for my 360 was MLB 2K7, which I gave up on after a few weeks due to unrealistic game play (and having my franchise file become corrupted didn't help things either). Basically, pitching was too easy and clutch hitting was impossible. So have the ails of past 2K baseball games been cured by MLB 2K10? Find out after the jump! (Note my confidence that this will be on the front page.)

Continue reading this post »

While perusing the Worldwide Leader (I know, I know) I noticed a link to this story about the Natinals and Strasburg being far away from a deal, so much so that the final outcome is in doubt. Obviously, this news needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it's likely just a negotiating tactic by Boras. But, there are two reasons I'm holding out hope that Stras doesn't get signed by the Aug. 17 deadline:

1. He is asking for an insane amount of money, which is accompanied by a certain amount of risk. Any time you offer a player that much money upfront, especially one who hasn't pitched in the major leagues yet, teams will hesitate. Especially financially strapped teams like the Natinals.

2. He could intentionally sabotage this process to avoid playing for the Natinals. This is suspect, and frankly more than a little stupid if you ask me, but superstar college athletes have a history of not wanting to play for a franchise they deem to be inept. Like Eli Manning. While I don't think Stras will reject all offers out of hand, I think it may make him less desperate to get a deal done––as in more likely to walk away from an offer he doesn't like so he could try again with another franchise.

Now, like I said, I'm not exactly holding my breath here, but this is something to keep an eye on. Because if Strasburg returns to the draft–and we'll know by Aug. 18–we are back in the mix. Because we suck.

Obviously if/when the Natinals finish last again and pick first, they are unlikely to try their hand with Strasburg again. To fail twice would be monumentally embarrassing. That leave us in a prime position to fail it out with the Indians, Royals and Diamondbacks. This would be a tremendous splash signing for Moorad as he begins to put his fingerprints on the team. Additionally, if Strasburg returns to the 2010 draft, there will be added pressure for him to sign with the team that picks him. Returning for a third draft seems out of the question.

The point is just to keep an eye on the contract negotiations, even though real news is likely going to be scarce until right before the deadline. (And also, I want to be on the record as first to bring up this idea.)