Last weekend I saw "Moneyball." It's a fun movie chronicling the story of Billy Beane, and his challenge of Baseball's Old Guard. A former pro athlete, Beane sought victory for the impoverished Oakland A's through then-unconventional means, and in the process found himself up against aging scouts and naysayers with years of useless received wisdom (ex. ugly girlfriend = no confidence = bad pitcher). Beane faced years of censure and condemnation, but his success showed what really mattered - hard, measurable data, not the mystical BS spouted by baseball's traditionalists.

The end of the movie teased Red Sox fans, bringing Beane to Fenway Park, circa 2002, where he was wooed with a job offer from John Henry. (Fans of alternate history can speculate how the '03 postseason would have played out under a Beane-led team.) Boston got its own unorthodox general manager with the ascent of Theo Epstein in 2003.

Theo Epstein made his mark, in Moneyball fashion, by exploiting a market inefficiency - the undervaluing of on-base ability and certain skillsets. He rolled the dice on Ortiz (who the Twins cut for not hitting to the opposite field), Mueller, Millar, and others, traded a star (Nomar) for players the team needed. When the team won the World Series in '04, Theo had no problem blowing it up over the next two years, producing superior draft picks that turned into superb players (Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury).

But Moneyball is dead. What was revelatory in '03, '04, even '05 is now just another part of the game. Every team understands the power of deep farm systems, the strength of an OBP-driven line-up. Everyone is fighting over the same skills. The low-hanging fruit of other teams' stupidity has been plucked.

Where is the market inefficiency now? It's out there, undoubtedly, but the certitude that our skilled management will find it is no longer present. Instead we clamor or brace for the next "Big" Signing.

Meanwhile the Yankees waltz into the playoffs, as usual. Funny how their aged starters suddenly spit thunder and hurl lightning, huh? (Looking at you, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia.)

Meanwhile the Rays eat our lunches, growing aces in their farm system. Look there, a 22-year-old fireballer starting game 1 of the playoffs, after barely playing at all this season. And if they need a player right now, just find some rich / stupid team's talented cast-off... Remember Dan Johnson? Remember Carlos Pena? Remember Casey Kotchman? Funny how these scrubs magically transform into stars in the soft spotlight of an empty Tropicana Field. Much will be said and done over the next six months to attempt to make it better. The obvious scapegoat (Terry Francona) is already gone. Of course, the hyenas of the Boston sports media are just starting to dig into the corpse of this team. Maybe they'll extract further pounds of flesh (Theo or Curt Young) before the offseason is done.

This team has lost its way. Maybe it got complacent while the competition got serious, maybe it fell apart because of poor strategic decisions or an incompetent medical staff, maybe lack of clubhouse chemistry or player motivation had a part. Regardless, Boston cannot claim that two straight years of horrid injuries and shockingly lackluster performances is just bad luck.

And so we experience them again. That sinking feeling after a horrendous end to the season. That despairing knowledge that things may not get any better next year. That desire to bury the entire roster alive, or to foreswear the sport entirely. These miseries are the historical hallmarks of being a Sox fan, not the excitement and exuberance of recent years.

In the gloom of September 2011, you can't see the Octobers of 2004 or 2007. It feels an awful lot like 2002, but there's no Billy Beane or Theo Epstein walking in to save us now. We can only close our eyes, and steel our hearts, and hope that things turn out better, somehow. There's always next year.

Let's say you had to design a team to beat the 2011 Red Sox in a short series. Obviously you'd want some solid southpaw starters, to punish the team for fielding so many lefthanded batters (or force them to play more marginal righties like Darnell MacDonald). You should have a strong bullpen, with a young flamethrowing closer, to shut the door. You'd definitely need a top four offense, maybe one fresh off a World Series win. And it certainly wouldn't hurt if the Sox starters and relievers left a bunch of pitches over the heart of the plate to your sluggers. Throw in home-field advantage and some luck, and you have an easy three game sweep.

If any of this sounds familiar, it's because you just watched the disappointing weekend series against Texas. The beating Texas delivered was almost scripted, from balls glancing off gloves (Adrian, game 3) and missed catches (Ellsbury, game 2) right down to a player they own (John Lackey) being second out the gate when he probably is our third or fourth best pitcher. You can do all the analysis you want, make whatever excuses you like, but when it comes down to it, the team that played better won, and that team was Texas.

Continue reading this post »

Box Score (courtesy of ESPN) OTM Recap (courtesy of The Artist Formerly Known as USG)

Some of the greatest moments in sports are the ones you least expect.  You can look at these moments as shining jewels in an otherwise regrettable and forgettable season like 2010.  One of them happened on April 20, 2010, when Darnell MacDonald almost singlehandedly snatched victory from the jaws of impending defeat.

The game before Darnell's apppearance was in some ways a microcosm of the failings of the entire 2010 season: horrible pitching and lackluster defense.*  But in this game, at least, the team's strength all year - offense - carried them through to the end. And Darnell McDonald was at the head of the pack in timely-run production on that night in April.

A minor-league journeyman on the wrong side of 30, nobody thought Darnell McDonald would accomplish anything when he was called up from Pawtucket. He was a Crash Davis with tattoos, just there to kill time until the outfield was healthy (as it was, he stayed with the team the rest of the season). In his 140+ major league at-bats prior to that night, he hadn't shown any real promise, and his power was almost non-existent, with just two homers.

Continue reading this post »

Image Source

Steinbrenner: Hello, Sox fans... Look at your team, now back at mine, now back to your team, now BACK TO MINE...

Continue reading this post »

The way this offseason is progressing, I expect a lot of Red Sox fans are discouraged.  Victor Martinez is gone, and Adrian Beltre appears to be next on the chopping block. Fan-favorite Jacoby Ellsbury might be traded.

Some people are horrified. Not me. The departure of Martinez suggests that the Sox are back on the wagon, back on track. It suggests that the team has a plan beyond throwing money at free agents and doing their best impersonation of the New York Yankees (aside: it's not very good.). Read on for a look at recent Sox history and what we might expect going forward.

Continue reading this post »

[If the following confuses you, please watch this.]

Source

Theo Epstein: What should I do? Should I admit that I've made mistakes?

Source

Theo: Should I remind you of what we've accomplished? Should I give you a history lesson?

Continue reading this post »

Red Sox fans typically have a deep philosophical predisposition for the underdog. It comes from many decades of hapless play from our team, which was either poorly managed or horribly unlucky, to the point that everyone, especially Red Sox fans, expected each season to end in crushing defeat.

With two World Series in the past seven years, $160 million in payroll, and ownership buying NASCAR and overseas soccer teams, it's fair to say the Red Sox are no longer the underdog. But if we can't win, I think there's still a tendency to favor the long-shots, the probable also-rans. That's why I'm so happy about how the playoffs turned out this year.

A Texas versus San Francisco world series showcases some of the best in the sport. Breathtaking pitching ("The Freak" and "The Doc"). Solid offense. Relief pitching that actually brings relief (sorry Tito). But it also shows that teams can turn around their losing ways and compete.

Before 2010, the Rangers had not only never been in the World Series - they had never won a post-season series to begin with. For years it seemed like all Texas would do was hit homeruns and pitch horrendously. But a determined rebuilding effort, aided by key trades (Tex) and acquisitions (Cliff Lee) has propelled them to the height of success. And while the Giants were in the World Series in 2002, they've had struggles in recent years (4 straight losing seasons from '05 to '08), not to mention all the controversy over Barry Bonds. Led by young stars like Buster Posey, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Tim Lincecum they are an exciting team.

It could easily have been Phillies-Yankees again, but it's better this way. Sure TV executives will moan that two of the largest ad markets are being left out, and commentators won't get to fawn about Derek Jeter or Jimmy Rollins. But both teams have had more than their share of playoff appearances. As the NFL has shown, parity is good for a sport: fans are more excited and involved when the playing field is more competitive, and their teams can quickly rebound from losing seasons.

Competition is good for baseball - it will mean more revenue for the sport and more varied experiences for fans. It may mean less spotlight for the Red Sox, but when a team like the Rangers is embarassing the Yankees, you can't argue against that.

The bullpen has been a real, glaring area of weakness in the Theo Epstein era, but this year it was especially concerning. Of the army of relievers we trotted out, only one had an ERA below 3 (Bard), and our closer had his worst year ever - the most blown saves and highest ERA.  Naturally, improving it will be a focus in the offseason. But where will the help come from?

In the past, Theo has tried a number of strategies to 'fix' the pen. He's brought in free agents off an unusually good year (Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez). He's signed free agents with good track records (Brendan Donnelly, Takashi Saito). He's promoted players from within the organization (Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Dan Bard, Craig Hansen).  He's sought help abroad (Okajima). He's even converted starters to relievers, so that they can throw harder (Joel Pineiro, 2007; Papelbon, 2006, Rich Hill and Boof Bonser this year) . Some of these moves have worked well, many have not.

The reality of relieving is that it is the most inconsistent discipline in baseball. Part of this is the especially small sample sizes involved. A mediocre reliever can have a solid season in 60 innings, get a big contract in free agency, and be absolutely horrible the rest of the way, just because the team judged him off 60 innings rather . The 200 innings a typical starter would pitch is generally more indicative of their talent.

Another factor is the nature of relief pitchers. In baseball, the most talented pitchers are turned into starters, leaving the rest of the field to compete for relief work. A small class of good pitchers are able to both start and relieve, but are more suited to relief work;  Papelbon is one such player who jumps out.

Finally, the players who demonstrate real talent as relievers, and show consistency year after year, are snapped up by teams and made into closers. As a result, these players aren't freely available, as they're expensive in trade and free agency. Put all these factors together, and it's clear why most teams have issues building strong bullpens year after year. We've actually been lucky, as before 2010 the Sox had good or great pens from 2007 to 2009.

Building a bullpen is basically a crapshoot - you can't really expect most of the pieces to perform the same way as last year. So what's the best strategy? My inclination is to primarily build from within. You can waste a great deal of money on career year guys in free agency, the Rudy Seanezes of the world who are destined to come crashing down; and trading for relievers is usually either swapping dreck for dreck, or trading prospects at more valuable positions for established relievers. But the Sox can get the best results for the least cost by relying on help from within the organization. Papelbon, Delcarmen, and now Bard have provided good results for the team, and though plenty of relievers haven't made it (Hansen stands out), at least they didn't cost much.

Although good help can come from outside (witness Okajima before this year, Saito, even Foulke), the team should be very careful about anyone on one of Ben's lists of free agents (lefties and righties). I would rather see what Doubront or another young guy could do. And, if all else fails, we still have Bill Hall to throw a few innings...

There's a lot to like in Amalie Benjamin's excellent comprehensive look at the 2010 Red Sox team. She correctly fingers not just the plague of injuries but poor defense, bad starts by Beckett and Lackey, and atrocious relief pitching as the cause of Boston's demise. But one remark really stood out in the piece, and it's something that I want to take people's pulse on here:

They did right the ship enough to remain technically in contention until the final week of the season. So, was this Francona’s finest season at the helm of the Sox? Pitching coach John Farrell says, unequivocally, yes.

"Without a doubt,’’ said Farrell. "Because of the adversity that was faced, the ever-changing roster, the ever-changing lineup in a given day, most of them surprises and on very short notice. They’re key guys.’’

Francona should be considered for his first Manager of the Year award, but he will be hard-pressed to overtake the Rangers’ Ron Washington or the Twins’ Ron Gardenhire.

Terry for Manager of the Year... huh? Just because Captain Late Hook didn't hear the tic-tic-ticking of playoff elimination until two weeks before the end of the season doesn't mean things weren't over long beforehand. Frankly, I think there's a tendency in the media to idolize managers, maybe because they're the main contact point for the media, maybe so that they keep giving the beat writers good copy. Tito's a great, standup guy, the Mike Lowell of Managers. But Manager of the Year? In a year where the Red Sox go from perennial contender to completely missing the playoffs?

On the other hand, this season didn't have any real personality explosions in the clubhouse. We didn't have any brawls between players or staff. We didn't have a player knock down an aging traveling secretary. We didn't wonder if our manager would be fired over controversial remarks. Usually Manager of the Year goes to a guy whose team significantly improved over the season, but maybe this year should be an exception. What do you think?

They say that 1 is the loneliest number. I think the Red Sox, a single loss (or Yankee win) away from playoff elimination, will agree.

In any event, I've resolved to be relentlessly positive about this year, and horrifyingly optimistic about next. 2010 was a learning experience, a teachable moment. What exactly have we learned for 2011?

1. If serious about making the playoffs, you can't rely on injured players coming back at full strength.

At the trade deadline, the Sox plan was for success was having Martinez, Pedroia and others come back healthy. The big mid-season acquisition was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the former top catching prospect who, unsurprisingly, hasn't gotten much play. Even after the deadline, when our injury woes were still readily apparent, Theo didn't put something together. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, as there didn't seem to be a wealth of deals to make, and they probably would have cost a lot in the way of prospects (not easy when so many are already on our team). Still, it's hard not to think that more should've been done.

2. Papelbon should not be the relief ace in 2011.

A relief ace is the guy you go to in high leverage situations. This is distinct from a closer, who just pitches the 9th/save situations. On our team, the relief ace is/should be Daniel Bard. In critical situations, we've learned that Papelbon is not nearly so dominant as he was before. Last night you can blame the plate umpire, Cuzzi, for some of the horribleness, but what about the 7 blown saves and ERA approaching 4, both career highs. What about Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS? Papelbon increasingly makes every save opportunity an adventure. He's looking less like Mariano Rivera and more like a Joe Borowski or Todd Jones - someone who gets a bunch of saves through grit and stubborness more than talent. Daniel Bard is the real thing, he's what Papelbon was when he came up - electric. So for next year, give Paps the 3-run save against the 7-9 lineup guys, and give Bard the 1-run season-deciding save against the top of the Yankees order.

3. Darnell McDonald, while not living up to initial hype, is a pretty kick-ass guy. Bill Hall, HR total notwithstanding, is not.

In a season where 2/3 outfielders missed most of it, and several replacements also fell to injury, someone who hits above league average and plays decent D makes a difference. OBP is king, and DMac's .342 is great from a guy you expected to warm the bench at Pawtucket. Bill Hall - love the power, hate the lack of discipline. .304 OBP is too little from a guy who gets so much playing time, and even 18 bombs won't excuse that. Who do you think you are - Jason Varitek?

4. Even (especially) a lost season has heroes.

Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, Victor Martinez, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard. These guyds have made big impacts on the team, from Papi's resurgent 30-HR, (likely) 100-RBI comeback bid to Clay and Lester dueling for Cy Young consideration. Meanwhile, Dan Bard is a Bard man, and he's gonna get a lot of saves over the course of his career, and Jed Lowrie is looking great and ready to excel next season.

5. Next year will be better.

For millions of Sox fans, the cry of there's always next year felt more like a curse than a panacea. You didn't really. Thankfully, those alive today can actually look forward to each coming season, as our eye-poppingly high ticket prices and dedicated ownership finance competitive squads. Meanwhile, the baseball operations people are among the best in the game, and so is the farm system, which continues to produce exciting players like Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kalish.

With a lucky 13 games left, the number burned into many fans' heads is 6.5 - the number of games separating Boston and Tampa Bay. But that's hardly the only number that jumps out at you as we near the end of this tumultuous season.

2 - The number of games Jon Lester has to win to become a 20-game winner for the first time. The young lefty is having a phenomenal season. He's accumulated 212 strikeouts, which is good for 3rd in the league behind Felix Hernandez (222) and Jered Weaver (218). His ERA, at 3.06, is 7th in the league.

.778 / .792 - These are the OPS of Darnell MacDonald and J.D. Drew, respectively (before Sunday's game*). Only 14 points in the category separate the two guys. Granted, this is a down year for Drew and a career one for MacDonald, but you have to wonder if MacDonald thinks the perpetually injured guy 3 years his senior deserves to be paid $13 million more.

2.48, 2nd -  Clay Buchholz's ERA, second only to King Felix. His FIP (3.71) and xFIP (4.22) are both higher, which doesn't bode so well for next season, but Clay has still been dazzlingly successful.

28 / 30 - At the start of the season, I don't think anyone would have guessed the Sox would have two guys at or near 30 homers, neither named Kevin Youkilis. Beltre's shown his best power, since his 2004 48-homer season. Meanwhile, Ortiz has put a horrid April long behind him, and silenced all the haters who were plunging knives into his back two days into the season ("OMG, HE'S 0/7 DFA HIM NOW!!"). The Sox are second only to Toronto in long-balls, thanks to a few career years, as well as power up and down the lineup (8 players with double-digit home run totals).

.329 / 3rd - Beltre's batting average has stayed consistently high throughout the season. Overall his bat has been a revelation, and though he doesn't walk as much as some of our guys (Ortiz has 76 - twice as many as Beltre's 38), the unexpected power and average are real pluses. Beltre's .945 OPS is highest on the team after the DLed Youkilis.

.848 - Jed Lowrie's OPS this season. If he can keep up this pace, I say give him the starting SS job next year. Scutaro's played utility for Oakland, and he can do so again, especially if he isn't fully recovered. Scoots' OPS is only around .718.

$162,747,333 - Red Sox payroll on opening day (this is an AP figure, Cot's gives $168 million). Spending this much and not making the playoffs is a failure of Yankeesque proportions. That figure averages $5.6 million per player (source), but it's not like we see a lot of it. Between guys on the DL, guys not performing (looking at you, Lackey and Beckett), money to departed heroes (namely Julio Lugo) and the ton of AAA and AA players we're sending out, there's not a lot of salary on the field.

18 - Games in which Jacoby Ellsbury played. Along with Mike Cameron's 48 games, 2/3 of our starting outfield has only logged a little over a third of a season.

2, 4 - Ryan Kalish has hit 4 homers this season, but two of them were grandslams. Talk about good timing.

162* -The number of games this year that Boston will play in all of 2010, barring both a miraculous winning streak and a total collapse by New York or Tampa.

*Since I worked in part from Baseball-Reference, which doesn't update until the next day, some of these numbers increased or changed slightly with the Sunday night game.

ESPN beat-writer Gordon Edes shines a spotlight on the Red Sox medical staff, and the question of whether they hold any responsibility for the injuries that devastated the team this season:

The Red Sox have placed 19 players on the disabled list, which they have used 24 times. By the end of the season, they will have lost close to 1,000 games -- or more -- to the DL, the equivalent of over six seasons. Six Opening Day starters have wound up on the DL, as well as nine former or current All-Stars.

The last time Francona used the same starting lineup, including DH, in back-to-back games was April 12 and 14. His lineup Tuesday night against the Baltimore Orioles was the 95th he has used this season.

Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino on Friday acknowledged "the plague of injuries" endured by the Sox this season.

"It's obviously an area we have to examine,'' he said.

Lucchino said the team intends to review its medical staff after the season but insisted such a review comes under the heading of "due diligence.'' He also expressed confidence in the team's partnership with Massachusetts General Hospital.

Is there a smoking gun proving that it was Dr Gill in the study with the candlestick? Unfortunately not. The article details the treatment of Mike Cameron, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia, but doesn't provide any conclusive evidence that the Sox medical staff acted improperly. Of all the injured players, only Jacoby Ellsbury and his agent, Scott Boras, fingered Dr Gill's staff. Nevertheless, look for more recrimination and accusation in the coming months.

Continue reading this post »

With their 5-3 loss last night, and the dispiriting defeat on Saturday, the Red Sox have successfully reached into the still-beating heart of Red Sox Nation, and torn it right out, Aztec-style / Temple of Doom Style.

Make no mistake: the playoff competition is over. Boston started this series 5.5 back of the Rays for the Wildcard. Now they're 6.5 back, with a month to go. New York and Tampa are both healthy, while half of Boston's starting lineup is on the DL. The bullpen after Bard (and sometimes Paps) is wretched. Our starting rotation after Lester is questionable.

The ONLY way Boston makes the playoffs is some horrific act of god that no one, not even a bitter Red Sox like myself, would wish on another team. Like a volcano opens up under the Bronx. The Umbrella Corporation turns the whole team into ravenous zombies (Nick Swisher was a test case). Left-wing revolutionaries force St Petersburg, FL to secede from the rest of the country.  No, we won't even fantasize about those possibilities...

Continue reading this post »

 [Before reading further, see this.]

via www.cbsnews.com

Little Girl: 1... 2.. 3... 4... 5... 7... 6... 6... 8... 9... runs allowed by the bullpen...

Narrator [shouting]: 10! 9! 8! 7! 6! 5! 4! 3! 2! 1! 0!!!

Narrator: These are the stakes.

To make a world in which all of the Red Sox compete for the playoffs, or to go into the darkness.

We must either love this team, or we must die.

VOTE CLAY BUCHHOLZ FOR CY YOUNG ON AUGUST 23. THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR YOU TO STAY HOME.

via http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1052/1300180300_c77401d86c_o.jpg

______________________________________________________________

This message paid for by the Principle Intellectual Television Committee to Help Elect Redsox (PITCHER).

P.S.: Mark Wahlberg shoots Derek Jeter:

In all the uproar over Boston's lost season, one thing (at least) has been overlooked. The Sox are playing good defense. Now, maybe chicks dig the long ball, and purists love the no-hitter, but Theo and company deserve some credit for having at least part of their pitching and defense strategy work out. 

Boston is 6th in the AL,* and 11th in MLB in Ultimate Zone Rating (the last, best hope for measuring fielding), at 12.1 runs above average. If you look over here, you can see just how our players are doing - you might be surprised at the results.

Continue reading this post »

2010 will be a year of memories for Boston, but most of them would better be forgotten. Josh Beckett going down for most of the season. Jacoby Ellsbury missing all of it. Dustin Pedroia's freak foot injury. Bill Hall bobbling balls at each and every position. Adrian Beltre destroying the outfield.

Speaking of memories, I remember this plague of injuries happening before. In 2006, the team was similarly wracked with injuries. A squad that started in January with 7 starters traded Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena (remember him?), put Papelbon in the pen, lost David Wells and Matt Clement to injury, and by the end of the year was relying on Kyle Snyder, Kason Gabbard, and a multitude of others. And over the course of the last few months the lineup was devastated as well. Beyond Jonathan Papelbon, the pen was also a lost cause. Pretty much the entire season was forgettable.

If the 2010 doesn't completely disintegrate like the 2006 team, it will play .500 ball, treading water until being mathematically eliminated half-way through September. The Rays may be fading now, but there's no way this team can capitalize on that, and when Tampa gets hot again, Boston will stay lackluster.

As an aside, Theo's teams haven't yet repeated an outcome in consecutive years:

2003 - made playoffs, lost in ALCS
2004 - WS
2005 - made playoffs bounced first round
2006 - plague of injuries costs playoff berth
2007 - WS
2008 - made playoffs, lost in ALCS
2009 - made playoffs, bounced first round
2010 - (probable outcome) plague of injuries cost Sox playoff berth

It's over. Not over-the-monster-down-on-Landowne-Street over. Not 1 game-playoff for the wild card over. Not big-7-game-lead-and-cruising-into-the-playoffs over. This team has been overwhelmed by its overwrought DL and underperforming bullpen. Out of a $170 million playoff-bound behemoth, we have uncovered a hapless triple-A team. This team is not going to see October. When they can't defeat an Indians team that has jettisoned its stars and is flailing around helplessly, when it can't win when Josh Beckett goes up against a Dustin Moseley, you know it's over.

Unlike 2006, being down and out this year was not a predictable occurrence. The Sox weren't a lightweight team building towards contention - they were supposed to compete from day 1. About the only warning sign, arguably, was depending on so many key players above 30 (Youk, Beckett, Lackey, Cameron, Beltre, Ortiz, Lowell, Scutaro, Oki, Martinez, Tek and many others). But two of the most shocking injuries were to young players - Pedroia and Ellsbury, neither of whom seemed like injury risks.

When this season finally ends, ignominiously, there wil be much blame to go around. I believe that the medical staff, often regarded as one of baseball's best, will receive some of it. Fortune, Luck and other intangible qualities will also be blamed. In the end, I'm not sure that anyone or thing can really take all the credit. I'm just sorry MVP seasons from Beltre, Buchholz and Lester were wasted, and so was David Ortiz's unexpected resurgence.

From now on, if you watch, the attraction should be (like a AAA game) seeing young players getting playing time. It should be savoring the good work from Buchholz, Lester, Papi and Beltre (when he's not mauling teammates). It should be thinking ahead to the offseason and 2011's possibilities. Because the Sox are not going to October this year, and you'll only hurt yourself to think that.

Most of us didn't have big expectations for the trade deadline this year. The biggest names weren't the one's on Theo's shopping list, but on those on DL: Pedroia, Ellsbury, and everyone else. So the arrival of Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia was quite the surprise.

But who is this guy? Why is his name so long? Does he agree with the Mayo Clinic that excessive sodium consumption is bad? Does he believe that Angelina Jolie is really a sleeper agent for Russia, or an innocent killer spy, or a sleeper agent posing as an innocent killer spy, or a crazy person who not only married Billy Bob Thornton but wore his blood around her neck?

None of those answers will be found here. Instead, we're going to look at Saltalamacchia's numbers and career thus far,  and see if they provide any clues as to what we can expect from him.

Continue reading this post »

"If people bring so much courage to this world the world has to kill them to break them, so of course it kills them. The world breaks every one and afterward many are strong at the broken places. But those that will not break it kills. It kills the very good and the very gentle and the very brave impartially."
-  Ernest Hemingway, A Farewell to Arms

If you're a Red Sox fan these days, Hemingway's cruel vision of the world bears a striking resemblance to the realm of baseball. So when watching the Sox muddle through another woeful stretch of games, it's important to remember that things could be worse. Sure, the bullpen is shell-shocked, and the lineup looks something like this, but you could be rooting for the Pirates, Royals or the Marlins, whose organizations barely try to compete, let alone dump $170 million on payroll (like Theo did). You could be a diehard Rays fan, a jackalope, a unicorn, or another mythical creature.

In any event, the situation for Boston is pretty bleak right now - they're in the midst of a long West coast road trip that isn't going well. They split a series against one of the worst teams in baseball, a Mariners squad whose lineup probably wouldn't start for Pawtucket (they're dead last in the AL in runs scored, and I do mean 'dead'). Since the second half began, we've scored 34 runs in 11 games: a little more than 3 runs per game. That might work for Clay and Lester, but Wakefield, Matsuzaka, Lackey and Beckett all need more to work with. (Click Continue Reading for more.)

Continue reading this post »

Reading the Boston Globe today, I noticed some striking figures. Sean Smith compiled some basic stats on Theo Epstein's midseason relief acquisitions. Since the Theo Epstein era began in 2003, only one year - 2008 - has seen July 31st go by without a new reliever coming in. Even in years like 2007 and 2009, when the pen was a relative strength, Theo still moved to try to bolster it.

Unfortunately, the results of these acquisitions don't speak well for the strategy. True, they're small sample sizes, and we're just looking at ERA and WHIP. But you can't ignore that of the 8 relievers Theo brought in, every single one had a higher ERA with Boston than their previous team, and all but three pitched horribly (Chad Bradford and Bryan Corey were okay, and Billy Wagner was very good). [Click "Continue Reading" for the numbers and explanations.]

Continue reading this post »

As the weekend finishes up and we prepare to go back to work, the Sox get ready for their only sustained mid-season break. It is well-needed and deserved; a team as wracked, besieged, and overwrought with injuries as the 2010 Sox needs a couple days (even a couple weeks) to recover. Boston ends the first half of the season 5 games behind New York, and 3 behind Tampa.

The Sox deserve credit for still being in contention, and we can hope for better play in the remaining months. The return of some injured players should help some. But there are also causes for concern. Looking ahead, there are a few things that we can expect to happen:

1. The implosion of Adrian Beltre.

Easy call here. Beltre is, quite simply, not as good a hitter as he's been thus far. A career .785 OPS guy is highly unlikely to keep up his .912 pace, the second highest of his career (after a steroid-induced 2004). Beltre is not Joe Mauer - a gifted batter who sees a lot of pitches, and he's not Vladi Guerrero - someone who can hit anything. Expect more swings and misses and more first-pitch outs.

2. Better pitching from John Lackey (or a trip to the DL).

Lackey is a better player than he's been so far. His walk rate is so far above career norms that it's not even funny to bitter Angel fans (or Sox fans who resent the signing). Maybe he's playing through injury, or maybe it's just a funk he'll work out of. It's certainly possible that he'll be mediocre all season, but I think it's far more likely he'll find some semblance of his old form, or he'll hit the DL harder than Adrian Beltre steamrolls a Sox outfielder. [Click Continue Reading for more]

Continue reading this post »

Make no mistake: the Red Sox are a battered team. The injuries just keep piling on, to the point that you could field a pretty good team with the talent we have sitting on the DL. Beckett, Drew, Ellsbury, Hermida, now Pedroia and Martinez are all in various stages of rehab / hospice. The season almost ended entirely when Clay Buchholz hurt himself running the bases; thankfully, his injury doesn't look too severe. Overall, things are not looking good for Boston heading into the All Star break.

The Red Sox have the top offense in the American league because they field excellent or above-average players around the field, including at more defensive positions like 2nd base, catcher and shortstop.  With the chaos in the outfield and Martinez and Pedroia injured, the Sox are likely to lose this advantage. This is especially worrisome because the offense has carried the team, as our pitching ranks 10th in the AL for runs allowed, despite superb work from Lester and Buchholz.  Our defense has been quite good: 4th in MLB by UZR, but the loss of Drew and Pedroia, not to mention all the time Bill "Butcher" Hall is getting in the field, could potentially change that. [Click Continue Reading for more.]

Continue reading this post »

Bullpen. Can one word convey such foreboding, such imminent promise of despair?  Since time immemorial, relief pitching has been bemoaned and bewailed.  Bullpens are subject to more changes and fads than modern art or public education.

There's a simple rule that governs whether pitchers start or relieve: any pitcher that is good enough to start, does. Players with only two 'plus' pitches go to the pen; players who tire after 4-5 innings or the 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup go to the pen; players who are so mediocre they barely belong in pro baseball, let alone MLB... end up in the pen.  As a result, the pool of relief pitching is pretty bad. By which I mean wretched, awful, horrific.

There is a small pool of players who are reliably good, among the vast sweltering masses of torpid players.  These individuals are collectively known as "closers." An even smaller core of setup men are reliably good. But most relievers vacillate, often wildly, between success and horrific failure.

Against this backdrop, the Red Sox have developed a strategy for their pen. Find a relief ace (Foulke, Papelbon), put some guys under club control with good stuff around him (Bard, Okajima, Delcarmen) and surround them with journeymen middle relievers. The last ingredient is prayer - the fervent, fervid hope that this unwieldy assemblage is successful.

So let's take a closer look at how this strategy is playing out. [Click Continue Reading for More]

Continue reading this post »

[If this game were The Shining]

All work and no runs makes Clay a very happy boy...
All work and no runs makes Clay a very happy boy...
All work and no runs makes Clay a very happy boy...

[axe smashes hole in door, head pokes out] HEEEEEere's Manny!!!!

I know the potential of a Cliff Lee trade has been discussed quite a bit (there's a whole megathread for it). The consensus wisdom among the chattering classes seems to be that New York is his ultimate destination. Polls on MLB Traderumors reflect this (Boston wasn't even a named option). Nevertheless, at this point in the season, Lee would be a much better acquisition for the Red Sox than he is for the Yankees, or the Mets.

Lee has had an interesting career trajectory. In his four seasons prior to 2008, he alternated good and bad years, culminating in a disastrous 2007, where he lost time to injury, pitched only 97 innings, and ended the season with a 6.29 ERA and without appearing on the Indians' playoff team. But over the past three years, he's put up some astonishing numbers: a 2.89 ERA, with 7.1 Ks and 1.4 walks per 9 innings.

With those numbers, any team in baseball would be able to find a space for him. However, the Yankees are one of the teams that least need pitching help. They are currently 3rd in the AL in ERA (3.80), with spectacular starts from Andy Pettitte (2.46 ERA) and Phil Hughes (2.71), as well as good work from Burnett and Sabathia; even Javier Vazquez has been pitching better of late. With New York's stock of young players already depleted by the trades for Vasquez and Curtis Granderson, and pitching decidedly not a problem, it doesn't make much sense for them to trade for Lee.

The Mets have a shakier rotation, and could readily replace, say, Olvier Perez and his 6.28 ERA with Lee. Perez and former ace John Maine are both on the DL and having bad seasons thus far, although Maine should be much better if he returns healthy. However, the Metropolitans would be better served by improving their offense: they are 5th in the NL in ERA (3.71), but 9th in runs scored.

Which brings us to Boston. It's pretty clear this is not a bridge year: our opening day payroll jumped from $121 million last year to $168 million for 2010 (source). You don't commit that much cash to a team just to build for 2011 or 2012. When they aim for the playoffs, the Sox usually make a mid-season deal to improve the team, from blockbusters like the 2004 acquisitions and 2008's Jason Bay trade to lesser deals like grabbing Paul Byrd. And the Red Sox need some big-time help with their pitching: their 4.35 team ERA is 9th in the AL. This despite having the 3rd best defense in the league, according to UZR (behind the Rays and Twins). If not for their league-leading offense, Boston wouldn't even be in contention right now. A pitcher like Lee could do much to change our pitching's fortunes.

Continue reading this post »

If you are looking for reasons why the 2010 Red Sox are inching back to the top of the division, a couple things jump out. First of all, you've got two pitchers looking like legit aces and potential 20-game winners: Lester (7-2, 2.73 ERA, 3.23 FIP) and Buchholz (8-3, 2.39, 3.49 FIP). You've got a resurgent Big Papi (.915 OPS) on pace for 34 home-runs, and a Youkilis* (1.064 OPS) on pace for 122 walks and a similar number of jacks. Boston's offense has been the best in the league - ranked first in OPS, second in HR and OBP, and first in runs scored.

But one of the least-heralded reasons for our success is the performance of our bench players. With two thirds of the outfield lost to injury, not to mention the underperformance of 3/5s of the starting rotation (3/6 if you count Josh Beckett), we've needed all the help we can get. Getting average or above-average play from fill-ins has gone a long way towards keeping us in the race.

Continue reading this post »

The first two months of 2010 Red Sox baseball have been full of surprises. When David Ortiz opened the season 0-7 and had a disastrous April, few imagined that he'd hit 10 homers in May and have a .354 / .409 / .747 line for the month. Fewer still would have expected the undisputed #2 starter be Clay Buchholz, or that Josh Beckett would hit the DL like a brick, or John Lackey would be so mediocre. But the biggest surprise might be the Sox unimpressive record inside the once-friendly confines of Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are 16-13 at home (.551), versus 13-10 on the road (.565). The numbers are pretty close, which is rather shocking given recent history. The Sox typically are significantly better at home than on enemy turf. In 2009, their winning percentage on the road was .481, but at home it was .691 (56-25). In '08, the numbers were... um... .481 on the road, and .691 at home. In '07, the Sox were .556 away and .630 at home. There's clear trend with previous squads towards much better success at home than the road. [Read on for an investigation of why the Sox aren't doing so well at home.]

Continue reading this post »

As someone who writes about baseball, I understand how hard it can be to come up with fresh angles, exciting stories, and nuanced interpretations of our beloved sport. Or, alternatively, how tempting it is to sell out, to resort to rote pieces and formulaic, write-by-numbers columns just to meet their deadlines.* [For more on selling out, please see my forthcoming book, How To Be a Sportswriter For Dummies: Becuz Smaht Peopel Become Doctorz.] Nevertheless, even my vaunted patience can be tested by pieces of such demerit as this.

Long ago (2008), our ancestors would have invoked their pagan gods to sit in judgment of such drek. However, with the Pantheon of FireJoeMorgan.com (FJM) having deserted us for more fulfilling work, like writing for hit sit-coms, today it is up to humble individuals like myself^ to take up their divine mission. So let's wade right in, shall we?

If it's not one Ramirez, it's another
(Tony Massarrotti, Boston Globe, May 21, 2010)

In Florida, where the episodes with the star player are as familiar as bad television reruns, maybe they are chalking it all up to just Hanley being Hanley. He plays like a man. He acts like a child.

I'm sorry but why are we talking about Hanley Ramirez? For a Red Sox beat writer like Mazz, has the season become so boring, so devoid of storylines, that we must discuss players on other teams in other leagues. Maybe it's just me, but there seems to be a surplus of contentious and interesting stories on the 2010 Red Sox: their shaky start, Ortiz's fall and resurgence, players hating the platoon, injuries, bad pitching all around. Surely this piece isn't a stretch to indulge the writer's obsession with a player as long-gone as FJM. Surely not.

[skims ahead to see if this is a labored attempt to equate Hanley Ramirez with Manny Ramirez] ... All of it cannot help but make you wonder if he shares more than a surname with a guy named Manny.

Oh... snap... He just played the surname card. In real life~, I happen to have the same surname as Morgan Freeman - does that make me God? Or a scholarly detective days away from retirement? Is my partner Randy Booth going to have his girlfriend Gwynneth Paltrow's head FedExed to him?` Will he gun down sadistic genius RevHalofan in a uncontrollable rage? I hope this column will answer these questions.

"Hanley has a tendency to think he’s great and he is great – he’s a great hitter, right? -- but I think he overdoes it a little bit," said Dan Duquette, who was the general manager of the Red Sox when the team signed Hanley Ramirez in 2000.

Nope, no answer as to whether surname is predestination, just a quote from Dan Duquette, the guy who drafted Hanley Ramirez. Now, the Duke is a real authority on him; I mean, how much could a person have changed in [checks calendar] 10 years, right? [CLICK CONTINUE READING FOR MORE.]

Continue reading this post »

Daisuke Matsuzaka was 4 outs away from a no-hitter, before Russ Gload hit a bloop base hit that was too far for Scutaro to catch. Sox still up 5-0. Comment away.

There was a time when David Ortiz was an untouchable, unimpeachable pillar of Boston sports. As we all know now, that time has long since past. By May, 2009, when Ortiz was in the midst of a horrendous slump, the knives had come out. The media began a feeding frenzy, proclaiming the death of Big Papi, badgering Tito on benching Ortiz, and otherwise inciting sedition and insurrection among the fanbase (not that we need much encouragement).

Last year, when it became clear that Ortiz was mired in something horrible, some fans began to turn on him. Others sought to support him, cheering and encouraging him at the plate. For all that is made of Red Sox Nation's animus, we will support our superstars when they struggle (unlike certain Manhattan-based organizations). And Ortiz eventually came roaring back: after May 31, he hit .264 / .356 / .548 with 27 homeruns. The first 58 games ensured his batting average would stay low, but he provided the Sox with big hits and runs over the next 104.

This year has been different. With the memory of early 2009 still fresh in our minds, many fans had zero tolerance for another slow start. After every bad at-bat, every late swing on which Ortiz looks hopelessly outmatched, every mistake that is weakly fouled off, the ill feelings grew. Within the first week of baseball, people were calling for him to be benched, traded, or released.

Ever since it's been 2009 all over again, although there have been fewer outpourings of good will, and much more animus. And there's another important difference - it looks like the real Big Papi is coming back sooner.

Continue reading this post »