SB Nation User Blog: 0157H7

Bay NOT an All-Star

0157H7 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:49:40 -0000

[Stop. Please read this before proceeding. Done? Now you may proceed.]

Once again Boston fans are packing the ballot boxes with hometown favories instead of the most deserving. Personally I hate those favories, don't you? Look at the numbers of some non-favory individuals:

Manny Ramirez is batting .348!

Juan Pierre is batting .322!

Carlos Quentin is on my fantasy team!

Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday

Those guys are like a MILLION times more better than Jason Bay. Jason Bay is such an offensive force that I have him on the BENCH of my fantasy team

I'm in a two league. Now tell me, which of these guys would you sit for Bay:

Holliday, DiMaggio, Pujols, Maris, Saberhagen, Chara, Federer, Bumblebee

Bay has numbers that are more comparable to Luke Scott. That would be fine if we were talking about Luke Scott in his prime. After all, this is Bay peaking and Scott plumbing the depths of the seedy streets of Baltimore like a cast-off from "The Wire." As far as career goes, Scott's going to get better acting roles than Bay.

So I ask,... who will teach me punctuation and the use of ellipsis? I mean, how does a player who I arbitrarily disqualify without actually looking at his numbers or anything beyond AVG and HR total get to be an All-Star periodnotquestionmark The so-called knowledgeable so-called fans of so-called Boston is so-called how. Or so I called. Your sports opinions can't be taken seriously with such antics; at least not by such esteemed connoiseurs of Fantasy Baseball as myself. Did I mention that I play Fantasy Baseball? Cower in fear of my judgment!

You want to talk about defense periodnotquestionmark Go ahead, I won't stop you. I don't know RZR from "Frasier." I don't know OOZ from "OZ." I hear UZR I think "Loser!" But I will make blanket judgments unsupported by evidence. Jason Bay is better than some, but not most. I'll tell you something else. Some of those guys are better than they think you think as well as you think they think they are,... I think.

Be sure to tune in tomorrow for my live FanPost-cast where I invite special guest Johan Santana to not be an All-Star.

GameThread: Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, Jun 28, 2009

0157H7 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:19:29 -0000

It's Penny vs. Hanson today. Should be more runs scored than yesterday, with the following lineup, which features 1000% more Jason Bay:

Pedroia
Drew
Youk
Bay
B. Papi
Tek
Ells
Greenie
Penny

And for the Braves:

G. Blanco
Kelly Johnson
Chipper Jones
Brian McCann
Garret Anderson
Casey Kotchman
Jeff Francoeur
D. Hernandez
T. Hanson

Game time 1:30 Eastern. Comment away!

GameThread: Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves, June 27, 2009

0157H7 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 19:00:19 -0000

Sox v. Braves at 4:10 on a Saturday. What could be better? Well, maybe a lineup with Jason Bay and Nick Green... Fun fact: the Sox clubhouse has taken to calling our non-hated shortstop "Greenie." No word yet on whether they think he's dope...

Red Sox
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. J.D. Drew, RF
3. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
4. David Ortiz, 1B
5. Mark Kotsay, LF
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
7. Julio Lugo, SS
8. George Kottaras, C
9. Tim Wakefield, RHP

No word yet on Atlanta's lineup. Hopefully it's just the pitcher batting 9 times.

Putting the Season Into Context

0157H7 — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:50:45 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

8 days ago: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher John Smoltz returns to the dugout after striking out during the third inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Thursday, June 25, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 9-3. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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It was going to be a revelation. After months of rehab and hard work, Smoltz took the mound, embodying the expectations of thousands of Sox fans. He would bring honor, dignity, and the ability to throw strikes to the clubhouse, and forever excise our memories of Dice-K's struggles.

And then he actually started pitching. UGH. Before the night was out, people on this website were already talking about bringing up Buchholz, and moving Smoltz to the pen. An outside observer would think, from the reaction of Sox fans, that the team has a huge problem with pitching, and that desperate measures were necessary to address it.

But the reality is that this is a very good team: a team that is 44-28 and has a four-game lead atop the toughest division in baseball. At their current rate, the Sox are on pace for 99 wins. Although some of these wins might be attributable to luck (Pythagorean record is 42-30), the Sox have strong fundamentals. The offense is 3rd best in the league, and the pitching is 2nd only to the Mariners (!) in allowing the least runs. The only part of the game that the Sox struggle with is fielding (28th worst in baseball by UZR).

On the Smoltz front, I am not especially surprised by his performance. Expectations across Red Sox Nation were sky-high, largely because people ignored that Smoltz is 42-year-old coming off serious injuries. Brad Penny, almost a decade younger, is probably the better bet to produce going forward than Smoltz, simply because of his comparative youth. Regardless of his bad start yesterday, it's too still too early to count out the hall-of-famer.

People forget that most of this discussion is over the fifth starter. Early on, the whole rotation was a mess, but in the month of June the starting pitching came around. Lester's ERA* fell from 5.40 and 5.86 in April and May to 2.33 in June. Beckett's improvement started earlier: he posted a 2.38 ERA in May and an awesome 1.88 ERA in June, after being combustible in April (7.22 ERA). Penny's ERA fell from 8.66 in April to 4.17 in May, and again to 3.22 for June. Wakefield is the exception: his best month was April (1.86), and he was bad in May (6.82) and mediocre in June (4.26).

The biggest obstacle to getting into the playoffs is not going to be the fifth starter. Between Smoltz, Buchholz, and Masterson, someone should be able to adequately fill the role. I am far more concerned about the continuing poor defense behind all of our starters, which could potentially sabotage the entire rotation (not to mention the pen). Another worry is that the Rays may start winning as much as they should be: by Pythagorean record they should be 44-30, not 39-35 and six games back. Much of this can be attributed to their bullpen, which has regressed substantially since last year.

Despite these issues, the Sox are in a really good position. It will be a battle to retain control of the top spot, but not as much as it will be for the Yanks, Jays or Rays to take it. Another reason for optimism: the Sox have dominated the division in head-to-head competition. They are 20-8 against the AL East, with a losing record against only the Rays (4-6). With all the West road trips and some of the toughest opponents behind us, the Sox have great shot at the playoffs.

*I'm using ERA rather than FIP because I can't find monthly splits for FIP.

Poll

It's windy up there on the ledge - do you feel like coming down?

Papelbon to Nation: Drop Dead

0157H7 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:34:01 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Jonathan Papelbon, possibly doing his very best Jerry Maguire impression: SHOW ME THE MONEY!

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According to MLB Trade Rumors, Papelbon recently gave an interview with Jody McDonald and Bert Blyleven on Sirius XM radio, in which he announced his willingness to play for the Yankees:

"Oh, of course. I mean, I think if we can’t come to an agreement on terms here in a Red Sox uniform, I mean, I think that’s pretty much the writing on the wall. If they can’t come to terms with you they’re letting you know that, ‘Hey you know what? We can go somewhere else.’ And I think it’s the same way on the other side, ‘Hey if ya’ll can’t come to an agreement with me then I can go somewhere else.’ Not only in the Bronx, but anywhere. I think anywhere is a possibility. You always have to keep that in the back of your mind because you can’t just be one-sided and think that, ‘Oh I’m going to be in a Red Sox uniform my entire career.’ Because nowadays that is very, very rare and hopefully we can because there’s no question I would love to stay in a Boston Red Sox uniform but I have to do what’s best for me and play in an atmosphere where I’m wanted and play on a team where I’m wanted and that’s all I can really say about that, you know?"

Let the recriminations commence. In the mean time, I'll see if I can verify this story at all. If anyone has a working link to the radio interview, please post it in the comments.

Poll

If Papelbon truly is willing to go to the Yankees for mo' money, what should his punishment be?

I can't believe this story. Paps would never do this to the loyal Red Sox fans.

181 votes

Tar and feathers. It's a fine Boston tradition.

288 votes

A demotion to mop-up duty. Then he'll never get saves or a look from the Yankees.

55 votes

Nothing. If he wants to rake the Yankees for all they got, more power to him. I'd certainly do my job elsewhere for more $$$.

561 votes

E.Coli, you are turning into the New York Post! Don't publish 'stories' that haven't been independently confirmed!

207 votes

1292 votes | Poll has closed

In Defense of Daisuke

0157H7 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:21:31 -0000

More photos » by Brita Meng Outzen - AP

2 months ago: In this photo released by the Boston Red Sox, Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka holds a trophy given to him as a joke following a game show spoof at the 2009 Red Sox Foundation Welcome Home Dinner on Monday, April 6, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Boston Red Sox, Brita Meng Outzen)

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On this site and across the web, there's been a lot of ire directed at the Phenom from Nippon, Daisuke Matsuzaka. People are so angry at his performance this season that they are talking about drastic moves: trade him, bench him, throw him on the disabled list with a phantom injury. But is this anger really justified?

Let's take a look at two players, seven starts into their respective seasons.

Player 1: 7 g, 2-5 record, 38.1 innings, 32 R, 6 HR, 18 BB, 37 K, 7.51 ERA
Player 2: 7 g, 1-4 record, 31 innings, 26 R, 7 HR, 14 BB, 32 K, 7.55 ERA

Not terribly impressive. If a callup from Pawtucket was throwing that poorly, he'd be sent down to AAA faster than you can say "There are two Hs in Buchholz." So who are these players?

Player 2 is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Player 1 is C C Sabathia, 7 games into 2008. As you may recall, Sabathia went on to pitch 253 innings for the season with a 2.70 ERA. He was so good in Milwaukee that some people suggested him for the Cy Young award.

Daisuke has had a disappointing start to the season, but we need to remember that his season is still in the early stages. While he is unlikely to have the sort of success that CC did, there is no reason that he cannot be better than he is now.

What is behind the ire towards Matsuzaka? Well, the sort of performances he gives are difficult to watch. Most baseball fans hate walks, frequent bases-loaded situations, and 5 or 6 inning starts. We prefer the Josh Becketts and Curt Schillings of the game, who barely walk anyone. Compared to them, Dice-BB Walksuwalka doesn't look so good.

But last year, at least, Dice-K was very reliable. You could count on him for 5-6 innings, 0-2 runs. I would take a 2008 start by Matsuzaka over a start by 2008 Beckett every time. With Beckett, who had a much better FIP and by many qualitative measures was the better player, the Red Sox had a losing record (13-14) while he was on the mound. Part of that was lousy run support, but he also was prone to giving up big home runs. His performance wasn't what you'd want out of the staff ace.

Getting back to Matsuzaka, three years into his MLB career, we don't really know what kind of pitcher he is. He excels in Japanese and WBC baseball, but something about the Major Leagues - perhaps the ball, maybe tougher competition, is holding him back. It's not too late for him to turn his season around, just ask Sabathia about bad starts. More importantly, it's not too late for him to turn his MLB career around.

Some people on OTM have said Dice-K's pitches are just bad and that he is not cut out for the majors. Fangraphs provides some insight on the relative strength of Dice-K's arsenal. Last year, his fastball was 3.1 runs above average, his cutter was 3.5 runs above average, and his slider was 15 runs above average. This year, all those values are down, although the slider, cutter and curve are close to league average. In 2007, his first year in MLB, Dice-K's best pitches were his slider (2.1 runs a.avg.) and cutter (8.9 runs a.avg.). Claiming Dice-K doesn't have major-league quality pitches, and is accordingly a bad pitcher, doesn't fit the evidence.

We should also consider that Dice-K is suffering, like the rest of the team, from atrocious defense behind him. Even with some improved performance lately (Green's #s at SS have gotten better) the team is still 4th worst in baseball in UZR and UZR/150.

All of Dice-K's stats are retrospective, and they incorporate recovering from the WBC as well as coming off the DL. In baseball, past isn't always prologue, especially with a unique pitcher like Dice-K. I have a lot of confidence that he'll get stronger and pitch better as the season progresses. There is no need for a panic move.

Furthermore, even if Dice-K isn't tearing through lineups, his presence on the team is valuable. He helps to draw Japanese talent in - Junichi Tazawa is an example. Yu Darvish, a 22-year-old starter from Japan, may be the next target, and having a Japanese superstar already on board may help convince him to sign on with the Sox.

Poll

How will Dice-K pitch for the rest of the year?

He'll figure it out and be significantly better. 3.00 ERA the rest of the way.

211 votes

He'll be slightly better, but no better than mediocre. 4.50 to 5.00 ERA for the remaining months.

184 votes

He'll continue to give us terrible performances.

32 votes

I don't know.

30 votes

Dude, why aren't you using tRA? All the cool kids are - you can take a hit right now. You aren't into that? Ok. You're calling the cops on me? Ok. Sorry I asked. Dude.

18 votes

475 votes | Poll has closed

GameThread II: Red Sox @ Phillies - June 13

0157H7 — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 03:15:11 -0000

Yeah. 650+ comments are too many. Phillies - Sox Game II thread continues here. Go Sox!

Can't They Both Lose? Rays vs. Yankees Game Thread

0157H7 — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:03:29 -0000

Owing to the woeful lack of baseball tonight, and the general delight people take in game threads, I thought it would be fun to do a thread on the Yanks - Rays game, which is on ESPN right now. Let's see how it goes. Comment away!

Guys Who Don't Walk, and Other Offensive Thoughts

0157H7 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 14:46:59 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Ellsbury takes a lot of heat. But is he really the biggest question mark in the Red Sox offense?

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There's been a lot of talk on this site recently about Jacoby Ellsbury, specifically whether he should lead-off or not. Many people expressed the view that his on-base percentage (OBP) was too low to justify leading off. People attributed this to Jacoby not walking enough, and being overreliant on hitting to get on-base. And the numbers would seem to confirm this: a .347 OBP largely stemming from a .306 batting average, with only 13 walks. Not awful, but commenters wanted more out of the lead-off spot. With Pedroia and his .414 OBP now leading off, this discussion has tapered off.

What I find interesting is the amount of attention Ells got at leadoff, when there are other issues with the offense. A closer investigation of the Red Sox offense reveals some interesting issues and unexpected observations.

Let's start with Ellsbury. He's been hitting much better recently (.340 avg / .404 OBP in the past 12 games), so his season numbers look better than when the discussion on leading-off started. . Among the 83 American League players with enough plate appearances for the batting title, Ells' .347 OBP is 42nd, which is very close to the median average. In other words, he's been pretty average. Moreover, there's a long list of players he's ahead of in his category, including Curtis Granderson (.344 OBP), Aaron Hill (.343), Jermaine Dye (.337), Alex Rios (.322), Grady Sizemore (.302) and Vernon Wells (.309).

I agree that Ells should be further down in the order, but it's not because he's a bad hitter - by OBP he's around league average. The Sox just have better options to lead-off. That said, Ells is taking an unfair amount of flak. His 13 walks are fourth lowest on the team among regular starters. Nevertheless, he's ahead of Lugo (9), Lowell (9) and Green (6). Lowell's low walk total is the real surprise, and his 3.9% walk rate is the lowest of the everyday players (Ellsbury's is 5.2%). Combined with his team-high 14 double plays grounded into (GIDP), and you're looking at a real drag on the Sox offense. It's a good thing he's hitting .300 and slugging over .500, because he's not getting on base at the rate you'd like. Nick Green gets a pass from fans because he's not Julio Lugo and he's hitting well for a AAA call-up. His OBP is decent at .341, but it's been inflated by 5 hit by pitches (HBP).

[Aside: the American League HBP leader is Kelly Shoppach, with 11. The Sox are 2nd in the league in total HBP with 30, after the Indians' 40.]

In addition to Lowell, I'm concerned about Jason Varitek. Unlike our third baseman, Tek can take a walk (10.8%). Moreover, when he makes contact, he's hitting the ball HARD: 22 of his 38 hits have gone for extra bases, including 10 HR. He's the only Sox regular besides Bay who has hit more doubles, triples and HR than singles. The reason I'm concerned is that Tek is one year removed from a god-awful season, and he still isn't hitting right handed pitchers (.239 AVG / .320 OBP). Given his age and recent history, I would not be at all surprised to see him go into another long funk for the rest of the season.

The biggest problem in the lineup is DH, obviously. Ortiz's 53 OPS+ is dead last among regulars, and looking through his stats, the only positive is that he's walking around 11% of the time. His K-rate has jumped to 27% which is higher than any point in his Sox career, and he is missing badly on fastballs that in years past he would have crushed.

Thankfully, even with Ortiz's struggles, the Sox have a good offense (4th in the AL in runs scored). In Theo's eyes, a short-term trade is probably not necessary. I don't expect to see Adam Dunn or Nick Johnson walk into the clubhouse; the Sox are more likely to get a bit player in the Eric Hinske or Mark Kotsay mold. The trade deadline is probably going to be very boring from the Sox POV.

Poll

Should Sox GM Theo Epstein be looking for a new hitter to improve the team's offense?

Yes. With Ortiz a shell of himself and other question marks through the lineup, the Sox need a new bat.

166 votes

No. The offense is still good, and it makes more sense to hold on to our prospects than trade them away.

79 votes

I don't know.

17 votes

Plaintiff objects to the question on the grounds that it is overly broad, unduly burdensome, seeks privileged information, or is irrelevant to the lawsuit.

39 votes

The answer is 42.

60 votes

361 votes | Poll has closed

Red Sox Fielding: Indefensible

0157H7 — Thu, 28 May 2009 13:57:47 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Nick Green knows that catching balls is hard.

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Ask a Sox fan "What's the biggest problem for the 2009 Red Sox?" and you'll get a variety of answers: Ortiz's swing, Lester and Beckett's struggles, anything that Julio Lugo does. But arguably the worst performance has been teamwide: the Sox, with a few exceptions, are playing atrocious defense.

How bad is the D? One quick and dirty measure of team defense is "Defensive Efficiency," which you can find on Baseball Prospectus. Defensive Efficiency tracks the rate at which balls put into play are turned into outs; a good defense will record a higher number. By this measure, the Red Sox have a .676 rating, 'good' for 11th in the league and 24th in all of baseball. [Aside: the league leader in Def Eff is the Detroit Tigers, at .706, followed by the Blue Jays at .705.] This is quite a downgrade from last season, when the Sox finished 4th in the league in Def Eff.

Another metric which you can use to evaluate defense is UZR, which is now available free on Fangraphs. Fielders and teams can have either positive or negative UZRs. Unfortunately, by this measure, the Sox again rate as one of the worst teams in the game: -11 runs for the season thus far, which makes them the third worst AL team in UZR. Meanwhile, the Rays are leading the game, at 22.9, followed in the AL by the Rangers (16.8) and Tigers (14.4).

Looking at the UZR numbers for individual Red Sox players, a distressing picture emerges. Of the starters, only Pedroia (2.4), Youk (1.6) and Drew (1.9) have decent ratings. Ellsbury, for all his amazing catches, is surprisingly mediocre (-0.2). Lowell is a huge disappointment at third base (-2.4). Lugo's defense has been abyssmal (-4.2), and Green hasn't been much better (-1.8). But the real butcher has been Jason Bay, who is -6.4 in left field, even as he is saving the team with his bat.

This sieve-like defense is losing games for us both quiety and flagrantly. The latter is exemplified by Nick Green's atrocious two-base error in Seattle (5/17), or Lugo failing to execute a double play in Dice-K's game against Santana and the Mets. But games are lost quietly too, in the many times when a ball gets by Lowell, or Bay's tentative play allows a ball to fall for a hit.

I believe poor defensive performances from our fielders is the number #1 problem with this team. Beckett and Lester would have markedly improved numbers if they had had a better defense behind them.

What are the options to address this? At SS, Green could replace Lugo, if you believe the UZR difference is significant enough; also, Lowrie will come back soon, so he might be the ideal solution to fill the yawning abyss at that position. Barring injury, Lowell is the third baseman, so aside from hoping he'll play better, little can be done. Bay really ought to get some days off from fielding, in part because he is so bad, and in part because he deserves some time off (he played 162 games last season, plus the playoffs, and hasn't missed a game all season).

There are undoubtedly some good fielders out there, and Theo should consider a Nomar-like trade if the defensive woes linger. As the season is still young (47 games in), it's possible that the individual and team numbers will improve. The question, as with Ortiz, is how long can we wait?

Poll

What do you think - do the Sox have a problem with defense?

Yes. I'm very concerned about the team's fielding.

148 votes

It's still early to say. A sample of 47 games isn't conclusive to say Sox defense is truly bad, and won't get better.

118 votes

No. I deny the empirical reality of your numbers. Indeed, I question the applicability of any objective measure to the sublimity that is baseball.

23 votes

I don't like the methodology you used, which overrelied on two systems, neither of which were Justin's Numbers... Hey! Stop stealing my lunch money!

24 votes

313 votes | Poll has closed