Since the lockout has ended, Chiefs fans (as well as nearly every team's fan base) are very optimistic of the coming season. We have LOTS of new weapons this year, and everyone seems to be speculating on the success of our new offensive pieces.  Unfortunately, the game is still only played with one football.

According to teamrankings.com, the Chiefs averaged the 11th most plays per game last season with nearly 65 plays per game.  Most (quality) teams have about the same number of plays run in each game, with the #1 NFL team (Saints) calling 67 plays per game and the #22 NFL team (Packers) calling 62 plays per game. Below I'm going to break down these plays and try to get a good estimate on what our offensive players' individual stats COULD be. 

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News came down today that the most recent rumors of the new collective bargaining agreement will have a salary cap minimum and maximum.  What's new is that the minimum is expected to be VERY close to the salary cap maximum.  Previously our cap minimum was less than 90% of the cap maximum.  (source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6687485)

We all know that last season there was no salary cap, which allowed teams to spend as much--or as little---as they'd like.  The Chiefs took full advantage of this.  In fact, even after signing a few players to long-term deals last year, we're currently sitting at approximately 75 million dollars accounted for heading into 2011.  (source: http://www.altiusdirectory.com/Sports/nfl-salaries.php)

I'll preface the following info with this statement--I'm assuming that these rumors are true AND that we will have football next year.  Sorry, I'm bored and miss football.  I'm feeling optimistic.

Based on the data in the links above and using a cap figure next year of $125 million (2009 was $123 million), the 27 NFL teams with money to spend during free agency have an average of $28.5 million dollars to spend, or about 23% of their expected 2011 payroll.  They have a total of $769.8 million to spend if the cap minimum is about $125 million.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, could have approximately $50.3 million that they will have to spend before the season starts. That's  a WHOPPING (in caps) 40% of our total 2011 salary!

Let's say that the numbers are high. Maybe the cap minimum will be closer to $120 million. That's still $45 million we'd have to spend in the next two months.  

First and foremost, I don't care if Matt Cassel ever wins an MVP award.   I only want him to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback.  My honest opinion about Matt Cassel is that we will never win a Super Bowl BECAUSE of him (a la Peyton Manning), but he can help guide the Chiefs to a ring.  So I've compiled the regular season statistics of the past 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and compared them to Cassel.  The results surprised me.

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We had a great turnaround season in 2010.  But despite our inclinations to think that this sort of thing is unique, it isn't.  From 2001-2008, 27 teams have improved their record by 5 or more wins, and 14 teams have improved their record by 6 or more wins.  I've created a few charts to see how all these teams did the year following a great turnaround.  Please keep in mind that while turnarounds are completely typical, I understand that every team has a plethora of reasons for improvement, and each teams' reasons are very different from another.  This is simply a statistical look at averages.

  All data was collected from various places on nfl.com

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Here's how it works.  We have lots of free agents (25) but we won't be able to bring back all of them.  Here you'll have the opportunity to choose who to bring back.  Every player listed below has a point value.  You have 30 points to use on free agents from our team (Unrestricted and Restricted).  You can't go over 30 but you can go under.  Who do you use the points on?  I based each player's points on what that player could bring in next year.  Keep in mind that some players are worth more or less than you may think they're worth (as will be the case for GMs every year).  This may factor into who you select.  Have fun with it!

Thanks to KC Star for the list of players (link found on today's AP frontpage). 

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In 1993, the MLB had a lockout, ending the season early and canceling the playoffs.  Fans didn't like this much, and it showed in attendance.  Average numbers dropped from 31,600 per game to 25,200 per game.  As an outsider, I noticed the media adjusted to not having baseball to report on and other sports (most noteably football, as the season started right when the strike ended the season early) become even bigger juggernauts than they already were.  It took about ten years for the MLB's attendance numbers to rise back up to the numbers they had before the strike.  

It seems that when it comes to the NFL, fans are even more upset about the possible lockout.  Whether fans think it is the owners' fault or the players', everyone seems to think that both groups must be stupid to let this cash cow dry up.  So let's say they do.  Let's say they take us, the fans, for granted, and put money first.  Is this just a necessary part of business?  Is it something that will upset you?  What will you do?

After the Ravens game, it seems a hot topic is the possibility of drafting another WR.  I went through and looked at all the wide receivers Pioli drafted.  Lots of busts, some success.  Please keep in mind that I hold Pioli in VERY high esteem.  I think he's a mastermind, but this is something I think we need to look at.  Enjoy!

2000-No wide receivers drafted out of 10 picks

2001-No wide receivers drafted out of 10 picks

2002-2 wide receivers drafted out of 6 picks

Second Round-Deion Branch, Super Bowl hero. Big name, but not a lot of big numbers.  Nine seasons, averages about 50 catches per year (although one year he was injured for 8 games).  Got a big contract after a 78 catch season (only season over 61 catches) and left New England after four years. Now he's back again.

Seventh Round-David Givens. 166 catches over five seasons.  Averages about 30 catches per year. A #3 or 4 receiver.  After five years, he's out of the NFL.

2003-1 wide receiver drafted out of 10 picks

Second Round-Bethel Johnson. Bust. 40 catches over 4 seasons, never had more than 16 catches in a season

2004-1 wide receiver drafted out of 8 picks

Fifth Round-P.K. Sam. Injured reserve for one year and practice squad for the second, then waived. Has maybe 10 catches for his career, all on other teams.

2005-No wide receivers drafted out of 7 picks

2006-1 wide receiver drafted out of 10 picks

**Gave up a second (Greg Jennings) and third round pick to move up to get this pick

Second Round, Chad Jackson. 14 catches over two years. Lots of injuries. Traded to Denver, and they only played him in four games. Bust. Big Bust.

2007-0 wide receiver drafted out of 9 picks

2008-1 wide receiver drafted out of 7 picks

Fifth Round, Matt Slater. 1 rushing attempt. That's it. He returned kicks and punts in 2009, but in 2010 had no offensive statistics and 21 tackles on special teams. In regards to being a WR, a bust.

2009-1 wide receiver drafted out of 8 picks

Quinten Lawrence-sixth round. 2 rushes, 1 reception. Could still turn it around somewhere, with someone.  Hope he does.

Recap:

--There were 85 draft picks over 10 years, with 7 of them being wide receivers.  We have one legitimate NFL player (Deion Branch, decent receiver, about fifty catches a year), one backup (David Givens), and five busts (Chad Jackson, P.K. Sam, Bethel Johnson, Matthew Slater, Quinten Lawrence).

--Pioli has NEVER drafted a wide receiver in the first round.

--The Patriots have always had decent receivers, but typically got them from free agency.  They even got Branch back this year in a trade.

--I didn't include the Chiefs 2010 rookies because it's just too early to tell. 

Based on this evidence and the fact that Pioli has drafted a WR in both of his years with the Chiefs, I think he most likely will not draft another this year.  If he does, it will be a project guy that we'll start out in special teams (sound familiar, McCluster?).   That seems to be his theme.  I think we'll get one big name wide receiver and maybe even get two via free agency and trade Bowe (I'm against it too, but Pioli trades people when their stock value is at its highest).  Thanks for taking the time to read all this info and have fun critiquing and discussing it.

Even from a management perspective, your ultimate goal is a championship.  But beyond that, you want wins.  And you don't want to pay a lot of money for those wins.  It doesn't make financial sense to overpay for a team that under performs.  Below I've calculated every team in the NFL's cost per win.  Basically, I've taken the salaries (from www.altiusdirectory.com) of all teams and divided the salary by the number of wins thus far in the season to see what teams got the most back for the money they spent.

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So while I was watching today's game I noticed that I wasn't the least bit surprised that we had another slow start.  After the game I did a little research and found out our slow starts are worse than I had thought.  Below I've compiled a breakdown of our first two drives in every game, then compared our average points per drive (using only the first two drives) to the rest of our division and our most recent competitor. 

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So admittedly I was over at ESPN.COM this afternoon reading up on the Revis-Jets drama playing out in NY and my initial reaction was, "I'm so glad the Chiefs don't ever have hold outs that distract the team and the fans".  But then I got to wondering, why haven't we had any contract drama in the past few years?

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Every football fan wants his or her team to be a dynasty.  And not just a dynasty, but a neverending one.  We'd love to not only be competitive, but to win year in and year out.  If I had my way, the Chiefs would win every Super Bowl for the next 20 years.  However, this isn't likely to happen any time soon (unless Pioli is really, really, really, really good). 

So my question is, "What is your goal for the Chiefs' future?"

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First, I want to say that I do think that Charles is up to the task of being an every down back and should be running the ball more than 6 times per game.  He should be toting the rock more, but that isn't going to happen unless we get more plays.  We aren't getting enough plays because there is a glaring problem with our passing game.  

Cassel isn't throwing the ball deep.  These 1-6 yard passes on guys that are being covered and have to beat a LB and safety to get a first down just isn't cutting it.  Here's the stat that proves it:  Cassel's average yards per attempt is a paltry 5.58 yards.  This is the 29th best in the NFL, just barely ahead of Jamarcus Russell (5.5).  Here's what makes it even more depressing--Cassel's 5.58 is actually INFLATED because it takes into account the catch up drives we seem to get at the end of every game when the game is over and the defense we are playing against uses the prevent defense (like against Jax).  I wonder, if we took these stat-padding drives out of the equation, just how low would this be?

Do I think that Cassel has the tools to succeed?  Absolutely.  But something isn't right here.  It could be bad play calling, WR's not getting separation, Cassel's throws being off or not recognizing an open receiver, or the many drops we've had.  Most likely it is several of these.  But we need to increase the yards per pass.  By doing this, we get the first downs to get Charles more carries.

Okay, so Herm wasn't the best of coaches.  And maybe he set us back quite  a bit instead of making us the balanced team we hoped for.  But with his youth movement, he did bring in lots of new players via the draft.  After the jump I've listed the players drafted by Herm.  Who do you think were the best players he drafted?  And after looking at this list, how would you rate his drafting ability? 

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