So there's been some talk of Von Wafer lately. I've been hearing a lot of posts that make assumptions about who Von Wafer is or what he does, and I'm not sure the statistics bear all of it out. So I'm just going to look at what the numbers say about Wafer in this post. It's worth mentioning that the numbers are unreliable -- he's only gotten reliable NBA playing time in 2008-09 and 2010-11. (He got spot minutes in a couple earlier seasons -- with the Lakers, Denver, Portland, and 1 minute in a Clippers game. He was terrible in those early seasons, though, so if you're giving him the benefit of the doubt, it's probably best to ignore them.)

Anyway, as I said -- I'm going to lay this out with as little analysis or opinion as possible...

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OPP community member 3.3seconds wrote this interesting piece about the Magic's rebounding so far. - ED

Through the first three games, the Magic are on pace for a historic rebounding season. They're grabbing 79% of defensive rebounds, which is the best percentage in the league, and surpasses even their 2009-10 mark. But they're also getting 29.5% of the offensive boards, which is good enough to tie for 7th in the league.

<em>This</em> is a new development, probably spurred by the bigger lineups the team has been playing. With Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis starting, the Magic often had to choose between getting back on defense and crashing the offensive boards. But with two rebounders in the lineup, it's a lot easier to do both.

Overall, the Magic are grabbing 56.2% of the rebounds on the court. That's easily the best percentage in the league, and beats last year's leader Cleveland (52.4%).

There hasn't been a team that averaged more than 53.5% in any recent season. And were looking at a three-game sample size here, albeit a sample which includes a game which will likely be the Magic's worst loss of the season. So yeah, 56% is probably not sustainable.

Or is it?

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The Magic had seven players who topped 60% True Shooting this preseason. This is a very high plateau for efficiency: only 34 players in the whole league averaged 60% for the 2009-10 season. (Including two Magic players: Howard and Redick.) The Magic averaged 57.3% TS for the season, good for second in the league; the league average was around 54%.

But were these pre-season numbers a fluke, bolstered by component percentages which can't possibly endure for a whole year? Or are these players truly capable of sustaining those averages for 82 games? Let's investigate.

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So the Suns just waived Chucky Atkins. This is probably it for Chucky's NBA career, which I suppose is fair enough... but I always liked the guy. He was never the best player, but he was a scrappy backup PG, kind of a poor man's Darrell Armstrong. Which made sense, because both Darrell and Chucky broke into the league the same way: undrafted PGs signed by the Magic as energy guys, who went on to play many NBA seasons. I wish him luck in his future endeavors.

This isn't going to be an in-depth post, because there aren't a lot of stats... it's just an idea I've had.

I think we can all agree that one of the main things Dwight struggles with on offense is larger/stronger big men. (Let's say... 280 pounds or heavier.) If he can't overpower his opponent, he often has trouble in the lane. This is true not only of talented defenders like Kendrick Perkins, but also of lesser players. (Witness his difficutlies with Aaron Gray in the Hornets game.) 

I guess the question is, how often does he get to face that kind of opposition? In games, obviously -- some games. Maybe once a week, if that? And sometimes the large opponent is a backup, so they don't even play each other that frequently. We're talking maybe 20-30 minutes of game time a week. He simply doesn't log a lot of time against the guys.

On our team, we have Gortat and Foyle, two skilled defenders... but neither is an especially large/strong man for a center.  So Dwight doesn't get a lot of systematic practice in breaking down 280+ lb. defenders.

But if we had a guy of that size on the team, Dwight could get  as much practice as he liked. He could get that 20-30 minutes of game time every day in training camp. Even if it was a twelfth-man type of guy -- an Aaron Gray/DeSagana Diop kind of player -- this might do wonders for Dwight's moves against heavier opponents. Thoughts?

It's no secret: in recent weeks, Ryan Anderson has shot extremely poorly from the field. This has opened up some playing time for Brandon Bass, who had looked largely disappointing in the early season. The theory is that, while Anderson is by a wide margin the stronger rebounder, and Bass has generally been seen as a greater liability on defense, his higher accuracy from the field might make up for those issues. But how do the statistics look?

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The Cavaliers have traded Ilgauskas' expiring contract for Antawn Jamison. On paper, this move has to make them more dangerous -- they get a legitimate no. 2 scorer to pair with LeBron James, and they've given up almost nothing to acquire him. But how does the deal work in detail? And how does it affect the way they stack up against Orlando?

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There's been a lot of talk about Dwight Howard's mediocre free throw shooting lately -- which is perhaps understandable, given that he doesn't have a lot of other weaknesses to worry about.  Some people are worrying that opponents might exploit it by deliberately hacking Dwight and sending him to the line, in much the same manner as has been done with Shaquille O'Neal at various points throughout his career.  Is this a valid worry?

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I'd like to start this post by talking about Nick Johnson, who the Marlins picked up at the trade deadline this season. In Johnson, the team received perhaps the least athletic-looking major leaguer since the heyday of David Wells. And sadly, that impression was accurate in many ways -- Johnson was slow on the basepaths, practically immobile in the field, and missed numerous games due to injury. But he was still a major part of the Marlins' late-season surge, due to his remarkable ability to get on base. Johnson posted a .477 on-base percentage in his 104 at-bats (plus 36 walks) with the team, and alongside Chris Coghlan, energized the top of the Marlins' lineup.

Sadly, Johnson is a free agent, and is almost certainly gone.  This leaves us with a hole at first base -- one which might be filled by Jorge Cantu, if he returns, but if so, who plays third?  Will Gaby Hernandez finally get his shot?  (Judging by the Marlins' track record, unlikely.)  Or is it Logan Morrison's time to make the majors.

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So we have a reported $8 million trade exception, which we received in the recently announced Hedo Turkoglu sign-and-trade.  There's a lot of speculation about what we're going to use it for, but let me point out again: we have it for a whole calendar year.  Which means to me...

At the moment, we're in the free agent market.  We are signing up free agents, and filling out the team.  At this point, if we used the trade exception to get an $8 million dollar player who wanted to leave his team, we'd have to pay him $8 million dollars.  Or more, given the luxury tax.  Are we going to do this?  Unlikely!  We might get a cheap guy for cheap money, but we don't want any $8 million guys.

But consider this: It's the trade deadline.  Maybe two thirds of the way through the season.  The Magic use their $8 million exception, pursuing an $8 million dollar guy who has an expiring contract.  Maybe they throw in a draft pick or something; maybe the guy is on a team deep in the lottery, he wants to go, the team is glad to deal him so as to lose more games.  Either way, we've got an $8 million player... and we're paying him at a pro-rated salary, because he didn't spend most of the season with the team.  Maybe he gets $3 million from us -- we're over the tax, of course, but even doubled, it's simply not that much money.  And he's here for the playoffs, which is where we really need that extra boost over the top.

I'm not speculating on any individual names, because I don't quite understand the full details of the exception, and I don't know which teams will be out of the playoff picture in February.  I'm just saying... if we don't see that trade exception move in the next couple months, don't panic. As far as cost-benefit ratios go, it's more valuable to us in the early days of 2010...

Here's this week's showcased fanpost. 3QC member 3.3seconds elaborates on why he feels signing Brandon Bass - one of general manager Otis Smith's targets in free agency - might not be a good move for the Orlando Magic. - ER

There's been a lot of talk on this site about Brandon Bass.  People are saying we should sign the guy.  Honestly, I don't see it. I have to admit, I haven't seen him in action very much -- but statistically, he doesn't resemble anyone who I could see contributing to this team. I've got a number of problems with him.

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