SB Nation User Blog: 33MorneauMVP

Trade Targets

33MorneauMVP — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 15:06:32 -0000

I thought I would do a follow up article to Jesse's What to do with second base? article with my own thoughts. I think it would be wise of the Twins to target the following players, or at least take a look at them and review how these players could help the club, not only this year, but also into the future.

Freddy Sanchez - 2B (Pitts):

Freddy Sanchez provides the Twins with a savior to their glaring hole on the right side of the infield, 2B. The Twins have gone through a bunch of 2B this year trying to find a regular: Alexi Casilla failed after doing so well at 2B last year, Matt Tolbert failed after doing well in Spring Training and now unable to hit a beachball to save his life, and now Nick Punto fails because he doesnt know which end of the baseball bat is used for hitting the ball. Sanchez, a former National League Batting Champion, possesses the skills that the Twins lack at 2B right now: namely, the ability to get on base/table setter for the 3-4 hitters in the lineup. Sanchez has a career batting average of .302 through 4.5 full seasons in the big leagues. Although Sanchez does not hold a lot of homerun power, career high 11 homers, he does have some ability to drive doubles and leg out a few triples. This year, Sanchez has a .355 OBP; Nick Punto, the Twins regular 2B now, has a .306 OBP. Sanchez has a .316 avg; Punto has a .212 avg. Sanchez has a .832 OPS while Punto has a .534 OPS. Also, Sanchez has committed one error at 2B in 365 total chances, by no means shabby defense. Furthermore, Punto is once again battling injuries and could very soon hit the disabled list again if taken out on a slid into second base on a double play ball.

Currently, Sanchez has a young CF, Andrew McCutchen, hitting in front of him. McCutchen possesses a lot of skills, nobody can deny it. However, he still is young and is in his first season in the big leagues, thus, he will experience the ups and downs of all rookies. However, if Sanchez came to Minnesota, he would have the sophmore Denard Span hitting in front of him, one of the best leadoff hitters the Twins have had for a while. Furthermore, Sanchez would have Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau hitting behind him, a far more dangerous combo than the LaRoche Brothers who hit behind him currently. For the right price, I would really like to see Sanchez doning the red and blue of Minnesota. Sanchez would fix the two biggest holes in the Twins lineup: 2B and #2 hitter in the lineup. However, I see Sanchez as a rent player, being in Minnesota for only .5 - 1.5 years. Is it worth giving up the prospects to acquire a rent player?

Yunel Escobar - SS (AAA ATL):

Recently, we have heard that the Braves have put Yunel on the trading block. While Brendan Harris has done an admirable job at SS this year, he is not the long term solution. Harris does not posses the range to play SS and from what we have seen, he cannot really play 2B either. So Harris, next year, should once again be a utility player, who sits on the bench and occasionally comes in to hit for one of the younger light hitting regulars. So, this raises the question, who plays SS when 2010 rolls around. Names, such as J.J. Hardy, have been thrown around out there, but it appears that the Milwaukee Brewers are not willing to sell Hardy. So, when Escobar's name appeared on the trading block, I immeadiately went looking for a possible trade for Escobar.

My brother, CarterHayes, had this to say about Yunel Escobar:

The Braves are said to be shopping Yunel Escobar. He's five years younger than Sanchez, is a much better fielder, and hits pretty well to boot. There's no comparison between their two contracts, either. If the Twins are going after a middle infielder, Escobar should be the first one they inquire after.

He is right on the button...Escobar is cheaper by far than Sanchez (both in terms of money and prospects - guessing on the last one). Escobar has been rated as one of the best fielding SS prospects in the major leagues. Baseball Reference compares Yunel to players such as: Todd Walker, Tony Pena (Sr.), Ernie Lombardi, and Howie Kendrick among others. Of course, as always, this is not to say that Yunel will hit like Todd Walker or Howie Kendrick but they are comparisons and should be taken into account. In my own mind, I see Yunel Escobar comparing the closest with Jason Bartlett. Yunel gets on base at a decent clip, maybe not enough to warrant giving him the #2 hole in the lineup but certainly he could do very well hitting #8 or #9 in the lineup (a .795 OPS over the past 3 years is not bad for a middle infielder; also, this is a higher OPS than Sanchez at .763 has managed to put up over the same span of years). Also, since Yunel is five years younger than Sanchez, as my brother pointed out, he has the same amount of time to develop into the player than Sanchez is currently, and probably a better player than Sanchez was or ever will be. Whereas Sanchez would only be a rent player, Escobar would be a mainstay in the Twins system for many years. *The only knock agaisnt Escobar is that he has a really bad attitude right now, but I think that is because he is a gamer and wants to win; since the Braves are not winning right now, Escobar is mad.

***I thought I would run a defensive side for the benefit of the Twins fans. I will compare Sanchez vs Escobar. The defense is the big key here...Twins fans would rather have Gomez in CF because of his defense and not his bat (though improving). SS requires a lot of defense as well. Check out these sites for defensive figures on Sanchez and on Escobar. As you can see from those graphs, Escobar is so much better than Sanchez on defense. Only Bartlett ranks higher than Escobar on the defensive scale. Also, check out Bill James for the best defensive players by position. As you can see, Escobar is behind only Jimmy Rollins in +/- rankings, while Sanchez is nowhere to be seen on the defensive chart.***

Miguel Angel Sano - SS (Dominican Republic):

While Sano is hardly a trade target, thus making my title for this article a little false, he is somebody that I thought I should bring up. Sano, though listed as a SS, has the build of a 3B or a corner outfielder. If you wish to see this kid in action and to see his attitude, click here. There are many doubts as to the age of Miguel, but looking at the video, Miguel has no fear or doubt that he will not make the big leagues because of his age. I do not have any stats to throw out there, but all scouts have said without a doubt that this kid is something special. He has a love for the game that Kirby Puckett would envy. The Twins have made an offer of $3 million to Sano; the Pirates and Orioles are also in play for this kid, but it sounds like the Twins have made the biggest offer. All I can say is that I hope the Twins pull this one off, because I would love to see him in the red and blue of Minnesota. However, because of his build (6'3" - 185 lbs), scouts do not think that he can remain at SS. Twins have a 3B prospect in the minors in Danny Valencia, but if we sign this kid and he must play 3B, I would gladly give up Valencia for him! Edit: At 6'3", 185 lbs., I do not really understand the scouts reasoning for not being able to play SS. Ripken, at 6'4", 225 lbs., played SS. He currently is the size A-Roid was at when he started playing SS. My only guess as to why the scouts do not think that Sano can play SS (besides the fact that they [the scouts] might be smoking crap) is that Sano could be a little slow on his feet.

Steve Tolleson - 2B (AAA Twins):

Once again, I stretch the title of this article but I thought it would be important to bring Tolleson into this article. Steve started the season in AA New Britain, but was promoted mid season to AAA. If the Twins do not sign a 2B or if the 2B problems continue, Tolleson could be getting the call to move up to the highest level. Tolleson's fielding can be streaky but his bat is solid. I would like to keep him in AAA for one more season, but, as I said, if the problems persist, then I would not be against a move to bring him west. No matter what happens this year, you can bet that Tolleson will be wearing the TC hat come 2010 or 2011 (at the latest).

The Twins have also been looking for some relief help. Names such as LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Capps, and John Grabow have come up. The Twins desperately need one more reliable arm in the pen. If the Twins do not trade for a 2B, but rely on in house options, they had darn better make a trade for a reliever if they wish to keep their hopes alive for the Hunt for Red October.

Poll

Who would you rather have?

70 Years Ago...

33MorneauMVP — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 19:13:57 -0000

70 years ago today, Lou Gehrig stepped up to the microphone set up in the House that Ruth Built....

"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth. I have been in ballparks for seventeen years and have never received anything but kindness and encouragement from you fans.

Look at these grand men. Which of you wouldn't consider it the highlight of his career to associate with them for even one day?

Sure, I'm lucky. Who wouldn't consider it an honor to have known Jacob Ruppert - also the builder of baseball's greatest empire, Ed Barrow - to have spent the next nine years with that wonderful little fellow Miller Huggins - then to have spent the next nine years with that outstanding leader, that smart student of psychology - the best manager in baseball today, Joe McCarthy!

Sure, I'm lucky. When the New York Giants, a team you would give your right arm to beat, and vice versa, sends you a gift, that's something! When everybody down to the groundskeepers and those boys in white coats remember you with trophies, that's something.

When you have a wonderful mother-in-law who takes sides with you in squabbles against her own daughter, that's something. When you have a father and mother who work all their lives so that you can have an education and build your body, it's a blessing! When you have a wife who has been a tower of strength and shown more courage than you dreamed existed, that's the finest I know.

So I close in saying that I might have had a tough break - but I have an awful lot to live for!"

Lou Gehrig - July 4th, 1939

If you wish to listen to a part of the clip of Gehrig speaking, click here. If you wish to listen to Gary Cooper perform this speech to perfection, click here.

Let Lou Gehrig be a model for all mankind, both young and old. Gehrig was an inspirtation on the field and in everyday life...a perfect American. RIP Lou Gehrig! You were a perfect 1B and American! Long Live AMERICA!!!!

Twins interested in Sanchez, Capps, and Grabow

33MorneauMVP — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:48:15 -0000

Twins interested in Sanchez, Capps, and Grabow

Well hopefully, Bill Smith will at least get Sanchez. Sanchez will require the most players to be given up, but throwing in two more may be a little much.

Morneau needs our help!

33MorneauMVP — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:07:47 -0000

Justin Morneau is having a better season than his MVP season of 2006. In my opinion, Morneau is better than Kevin Youkilis and just about as good as Tex.

However, after the latest update, Morneau stills sits behind Youkilis (1st) and Texeira (2nd). Mark Teixeira should probably be in first place because he is an excellent player who is once again having an excellent season. However, the fact remains that Morneau trails both of these players when he does deserve to be in the all-star game.

Morneau trails Mark Teixeira for second place by 314,726 votes. Morneau trails Kevin Youkilis, in an undeserved first place, by 354,773 votes.

We can help Morneau get into second place though! Vote many times, using mulitple email addresses...even make up emails in order to help our Canadian born 1B.

VOTE MAUER AND MORNEAU!!!!!

Poll

Will you vote for Morneau?

Trades: Those that worked/did not work

33MorneauMVP — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:25:21 -0000

Twins have had a history of being stingy in the trading market, especially for sort of big name players: Adrian Beltre, J.J. Hardy, etc. I am going to look back at the trades that the Twins have made in the last few years and determine who came out ahead in the trades.

Terry Ryan: (most notable trades)

*On December 13, 1999, Terry Ryan sent, under the Rule 5 draft, minor leaguer Jared Camp to the Marlins for future Cy Young Award Winner, Johan Santana.

**On July 12, 2002, Ryan traded Brian Buchanan to the San Diego Padres for a SS, Jason Bartlett.

***On July 16, 2003, Ryan traded OF, Bobby Kielty, to Toronto outfielder, Shannon Stewart.

****On November 14, 2003, Ryan traded catcher, A.J. Pierzynski and cash to the San Francisco Giants for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano.

*****On December 2, 2005, TR traded away Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler to the Florida Marlins for second baseman, Luis Castillo.

******On December 9, 2005, Terry traded left-handed pitcher J.C. Romero to the LA Angels for infielder, Alexi Casilla.

On top of these trades, Terry Ryan also made several stupid trades. However, all of these trades benefited the Twins:

*Johan Santana - AllStar (05-07), 2x Cy Young Award Winner (04 and 06), Gold Glove Winner (07), Triple Crown Winner (06) with 19 wins, 245 K, and a 2.77 ERA. K'd Twins career high 17 on August 19, 2007 vs. Rangers.

**Jason Bartlett - speed and small ball type player with the Twins earned Bartlett the nickname of the "Piranhas" (one of four Twins). Great overall Shortstop for the Twins...

***Shannon Stewart - Finished 4th in the MVP voting in 2003 (Blue Jays and Twins). Stewart helped vault the Twins to pennant titles in years: 03, 04, 06.

****Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano - Nathan has a career ERA of 2.80 with 210 saves since 2004. To date, Nathan has only once had an ERA over 2 (05) and currently holds an ERA over 2 at 2.18. Boof Bonser has bounced from starting rotation to bullpen and first found his true place in the bullpen last year. Bonser features a huge curveball and has the ability to be a top reliever. Liriano, since 2006, has had his ups and many downs. 2006 was by far his best year: All-Star, 2nd in Rookie of the Year to Justin Verlander, 2x Rookie Pitcher of the Month (06), 2.16 ERA, 144 K, 12-3 record as a 2006 rookie. Underwent TJ surgery and have yet to see the 2006 form of the Franchise.

*****Luis Castillo - Castillo's 1.5 years in Minnesota were well regarded. Castillo was the best fielding Twin since Chuck Knoblauch. Castillo set the record for most consecutive games without an error until Placido Polanco broke it with a season with 0 errors. Castillo was a 3x NL Gold Glove Winner, 3x NL All-Star, 2x MLB Stolen Base Leader, and a World Series winner.

******Alexi Casilla - Casilla had a career year in 2008 with a .281 AVG, 7 HR, 50 RBI. Casilla has been sent down several times to AAA to clear his head and also settle him down. Casilla won the second base job in 2008 after a month in AAA, and started 2009 as the starting 2B. However, with a bad start to 09, Casilla was once more demoted to AAA, where he hit .336. Casilla has since been recalled and shows signs of improvement.

Bill Smith: (trades)

*Traded Starting pitcher Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and relief pitcher Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay Rays for outfielder Delmon Young, infielder Brendan Harris, and outfielder Jason Pridie.

**Traded Ace Pitcher Johan Santana for center fielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, and Deolis Guerra.

***Traded minor league outfielder, Doug Deeds, to the Cubs for outfielder Craig Monroe.

None of these trades have seemed to work out, aside from the third one, but that is yet to be determined if that will turn out in the Twins favor or if Deeds catches fire with the Cubs:

*Delmon Young - Finished 2nd in the 2007 Rookie of the Year to Boston 2B, Dustin Pedroia; Finished the AL leader in outfielder assists in 2007. Young was moved to LF when he came to Minnesota and has struggled with catching fly balls, although runners never tried to test Delmon's cannon of an arm. In 2008, he committed 8 errors as the Twins LF but led all AL left fielders with 11 outfield assists. His bat caught fire the second half of 2008, but he has not really been the same player nor lived up to his potential that he was capable of as seen in his rookie season. This trade has appeared to be a Twins bust. Brendan Harris has bounced between starting 2B, to SS, platton 3B, utility player, and now back to SS. Harris features a nice bat along with a pretty good glove...he is about league average in all aspects of the game. Jason Pridie, though in contention for the starting CF position in 2008, has never been a starter for the Twins (except in late September of 2008). Pridie will never be anything more than a AAAA player. Meanwhile, Garza and Bartlett vaulted the Tampa Bay Rays from one of the worst teams in the Majors to the AL East Crown, AL Championship Winners, and losers of the World Series.

Jason Bartlett (via Keith Allison)

Bartlett, Most Valuable Rays player, currently on the DL, has the highest batting average in the american league right now and is currently one of the best SS in the AL. Garza, always one of the Twins prized prospects, has shown it in Tampa as he has nailed down the 2nd - 3rd spot in the rotation. Morlan has yet to be seen. This trade seems to have in favor of Tampa Bay and a bust for the Twins.

**Carlos Gomez - The only consistent Major League starter of the Santana trade, Gomez's defense is invaluable.

via d.yimg.com

2nd only to Cleveland's Grady Sizemore in defense, Gomez has taken over Torii Hunter's spot with pride (at least defensively). Offensively, Gomez is very streaky and so far this season, he has yet to hit a hot spot. Humber is also streaky but overall appears to be a very good prospect as a relief pitcher. Mulvey and Guerra are the only ones in the Santana trade to yet see the Majors. Mulvey has been stuck in AAA for the past 2 seasons and has done a respectable job there and could be a starter in the Majors in 2010. Guerra still has a ways to go, but his potential is still sky high, only if he can control his pitches. However, at the present time, this trade has gone in favor of the Mets, as Santana led the league in ERA in 2008 (2.53) and once again is tearing up the NL to the tune of a 1.77 ERA with 60 K through 66 IP and a 7-2 record. This trade so far has been a Twins bust.

via www.sportsnet.ca

***Since Monroe didnt really pan out and the Cubs have yet to see Doug Deeds perform satisfactory, this trade cannot yet be determined...but right now, the Twins have come out with the better hand, as Monroe hit several game winning HR for Minnesota.

********************************************************************************************************************************

Recent years of trading have not been too kind to the Minnesota Twins. Bill Smith has seemed to be worse than Terry Ryan, at least in terms of trading. Free agent signing looks to be Smith's best hand as Terry Ryan signed some of the worse "veterans" in recent memory of GMs. Hopefully, BS can make a few good trades this year and send the Twins to yet another playoff appearance.

Twins who should get the boot/traded this year: Nick Punto, Luis Ayala, Delmon Young, Glen Perkins (?).

Minor Leaguers who could be traded: Matt Macri, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Pridie, Brian Duensing

What are your thoughts on the Twins recent rash of trades? Any additional comments that you might have concerning BS lack of trigger pulling and TR job as the Twins GM?

via www.sportsnet.ca

Poll

Who would you rather have as the Twins GM right now?

Terry Ryan

88 votes

Bill Smith

15 votes

Rob Antony

7 votes

Mike Radcliff

8 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed

Punto DL'ed; Casilla recalled

33MorneauMVP — Sat, 30 May 2009 14:55:02 -0000

Punto DL'ed; Casilla recalled

Punto landed on the DL for 15 days with a sore groin muscle. Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla is recalled resulting in a Tolbert/Harris platoon at SS. Lets perform well boys and never let Punto back on the club!

Power Hitters Projections

33MorneauMVP — Wed, 27 May 2009 15:48:13 -0000

With the recent surge from all of the Twins power hitters: Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer, Crede and Span, I decided to look back at the well-respected baseball experts in order to see their projections for these players performances. The results were surprising. I went through all the greats: Bill James, Chone, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS. Then, I put down their season stats so far, and then drew up ESPN to see what they are projected at if they should keep hitting at the same rate as they are currently. Now, before you start ripping into me about using ESPN for any sort of projections, it is just to get a rough idea of what these players are capable of if they remain hitting at this same rate.

Justin Morneau:

Bill James: 161 Games, 615 AB, 177 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 92 RS, 120 RBI, 68 BB, 94 SO, .288 AVG

Chone: 149 Games, 556 AB, 158 H, 33 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 83 RS, 108 RBI, 62 BB, 85 SO, .284 AVG

Marcel: 550 AB, 160 H, 35 2B, 3 3B, 24 HR, 82 RS, 106 RBI, 61 BB, 85 SO, .291 AVG

Oliver: 629 AB, 175 H, 36 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 53 BB, 99 SO, .279 AVG

ZiPS: 599 AB, 178 H, 39 2B, 3 3B, 30 HR, 94 RS, 125 RBI, 69 BB, 86 SO, .297 AVG

Season: 47 Games, 176 AB, 61 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 38 RS, 44 RBI, 25 BB, 28 SO, .347 AVG

ESPN: 162 Games, 607 AB, 210 H, 45 2B, 3 3B, 48 HR, 131 RS, 152 RBI, 86 BB, 97 SO, .347 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS

Jason Kubel:

Bill James: 145 Games, 517 AB, 146 H, 33 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 78 RS, 89 RBI, 52 BB, 90 SO, .282 AVG

Chone: 123 Games, 402 AB, 108 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 55 RS, 63 RBI, 39 BB, 77 SO, .269 AVG

Marcel: 454 AB, 122 H, 25 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 62 RS, 69 RBI, 44 BB, 88 SO, .269 AVG

Oliver: 467 AVG, 127 H, 25 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 41 BB, 83 SO, .272 AVG

ZiPS: 417 AB, 114 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 59 RS, 69 RBI, 41 BB, 79 SO, .273 AVG

Season: 40 Games, 147 AB, 49 H, 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 23 RS, 24 RBI, 10 BB, 28 SO, .333 AVG

ESPN: 155 Games, 570 AB, 190 H, 43 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 89 RS, 93 RBI, 39 BB, 109 SO, .333 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: Bill James

Joe Mauer:

Bill James: 138 Games, 520 AB, 168 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 88 RS, 80 RBI, 78 BB, 53 SO, .323 AVG

Chone: 132 Games, 484 AB, 152 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 78 RBI, 71 RBI, 77 BB, 51 SO, .314 AVG

Marcel: 483 AB, 154 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 80 RS, 74 RBI, 71 BB, 57 SO, .319 AVG

Oliver: 550 AB, 169 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 64 BB, 62 SO, .308 AVG

ZiPS: 540 AB, 169 H, 33 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 91 RS, 82 RBI, 83 BB, 56 SO, .313 AVG

Season: 24 Games, 84 AB, 36 H, 5 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 26 RS, 31 RBI, 17 BB, 13 SO, .429 AVG

ESPN: 139 Games, 487 AB, 209 H, 29 2B, 0 3B, 64 HR, 151 RS, 180 RBI, 98 BB, 75 SO, .429 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: Bill James

Joe Crede:

Bill James: 131 Games, 447 AB, 111 H, 25 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 51 RS, 63 RBI, 29 BB, 63 SO, .248 AVG

Chone: 126 Games, 437 AB, 110 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 50 RS, 63 RBI, 29 BB, 60 SO, .252 AVG

Marcel: 368 AB, 94 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 45 RS, 56 RBI, 28 BB, 52 SO, .255 AVG

Oliver: 357 AB, 89 H, 18 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 24 BB, 52 BB, .249 AVG

ZiPS: 320 AB, 80 H, 17 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 35 RS, 45 RBI, 21 BB, 44 SO, .250 AVG

Season: 34 Games, 125 AB, 30 H, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 17 RS, 21 RBI, 11 BB, 20 SO, .240 AVG

ESPN: 149 Games, 548 AB, 131 H, 31 2B, 0 3B, 35 HR, 75 RS, 92 RBI, 48 BB, 88 SO, .240 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: Chone

Michael Cuddyer:

Bill James: 119 Games, 416 AB, 113 H, 26 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 62 RS, 60 RBI, 46 BB, 83 SO, .272 AVG

Chone: 133 Games, 482 AB, 127 H, 27 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 73 RS, 69 RBI, 55 BB, 99 SO, .263 AVG

Marcel: 355 AB, 95 H, 20 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 53 RS, 54 RBI, 39 BB, 72 SO, .268 AVG

Oliver: 257 AB, 67 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 26 BB, 52 SO, . 263 AVG

ZiPS: 400 AB, 106 H, 23 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 62 RS, 62 RBI, 44 BB, 81 SO, .265 AVG

Season: 46 Games, 172 AB, 49 H, 10 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 29 RS, 31 RBI, 24 BB, 31 SO, .285 AVG

ESPN: 161 Games, 602 AB, 172 H, 35 2B, 11 3B, 28 HR, 102 RS, 109 RBI, 84 BB, 109 SO, .285 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS

Denard Span:

Bill James: 138 Games, 488 AB, 139 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 82 RS, 53 RBI, 54 BB, 86 SO, 29 SB, .285 AVG

Chone: 131 Games, 496 AB, 136 H, 24 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 78 RS, 51 RBI, 49 BB, 93 SO, 22 SB, .274 AVG

Marcel: 348 AB, 102 H, 18 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 64 RS, 48 RBI, 46 BB, 61 SO, 14 SB, .293 AVG

Oliver: 526 AB, 142 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 49 BB, 96 SO, .270 AVG

ZiPS: 529 AB, 143 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 81 RS, 54 RBI, 51 BB, 100 SO, 27 SB, .270 AVG

Season: 44 Games, 173 AB, 52 H, 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 26 RS, 22 RBI, 23 BB, 26 SO, 10 SB, .301 AVG

ESPN: 159 Games, 625 AB, 188 H, 18 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 94 RS, 80 RBI, 83 BB, 94 SO, 36 SB, .301 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS

There were some surprisingly low projections in among here. Though Mauer has surprised us all with his new found power stroke, there were still some low projections for Mauer; Morneau really got squeezed in the projections. What are your votes for the closest projections? Of course, we all would like to see the inflated ESPN numbers happen if all these batters can keep this pace, but we all know that batters experience ups and downs and probably not one of the ESPN projections will be accurate.

Poll

Whose Projections do you agree with the most?

Bill James

4 votes

Chone

1 votes

Marcel

0 votes

Oliver

0 votes

ZiPS

4 votes

ESPN

13 votes

22 votes | Poll has closed

Crede on Fire

33MorneauMVP — Tue, 26 May 2009 21:15:27 -0000

Amid the offensive outburst by the Twins batters, mostly Mauer, Cuddyer, and Morneau, one batter has been left in the dust though his performance of late has been more than satisfactory. This batter plays third base with a glove of gold and steps into the batters box with a big stick and even larger confidence. His name?: Joe Crede.

In the past 7 days, Crede has been an offensive machine, posting numbers like:

3 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SO, 1 2B, 3 RS, .318 AVG, .360 OBP, .773 SLG, 1.133 OPS in 22 at bats.

Crede has been getting a lot of discouraging remarks made about him and I have seen many "Free Brian Buscher" statements made when Crede is in the lineup. I would like to compare Buscher (Butcher) to Crede.

Buscher:

I am a fan of Buscher, dont get me wrong, its just that I like Joe Crede more. Buscher through 23 games, is batting .186 (about .060 points below Crede). Buscher has hit one homer and has 7 RBI; he also has struck out 15 times while walking 11 times. In the last 7 days, Buscher has gone 1-13 with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts. Buscher so far this season: .186 BA, .319 OBP, .305 SLG, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 RS, .625 OPS. On the other side of the ball, Buscher has performed as usual. Yesterday, we had the joy of witnessing Buscher at third base contributing to the Twins lose. Three hit balls went by Buscher, who has the lateral movement of a mailbox post. We all know that at least two of the balls are played by Crede and turned into outs. The other one, which was a liner by Buscher with the bases loaded, would probably have been knocked down by Crede (maybe gloved) and would have been only a single as opposed to the double that actually occurred. Thus, if we had Crede in at third base, we would have won the game probably due to his defensive whiz. If Crede plays that game, the final score would have been around 5-3 (Twins) instead of 6-5 (Red Sox). However, Crede was hurt and it appears that he won't play again in this game and instead we get the little more agile Brendan Harris at third tonight.

Crede:

This season, Crede has not been able to get his average up very high, at least over the .250 mark. However, Crede has been hitting the ball very hard but just at the wrong people. To date, Crede has hit 12 liners that have been caught and turned into outs. If those liners sneak fall in, Crede would have a batting average of .336! However, they were caught and we must live with his .240 BA. However, despite his rather low BA, Crede does feature some nice stats: .240 BA, .304 OBP, .488 SLG, .792 OPS, 7 2B, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 17 RS, 20 SO, 11 BB in 34 games. With his recent resurgence with the stick, Crede may finally get over the .250 mark and be able to hit consistently from there on. However, though his offensive numbers are nice, where Crede's true value is is in his defense. Crede has saved many runs from scoring with his plays in the field so far this season, and though not many have hit the highlight reels, he still is regarded as one of the best 3B. Crede is third (tied with Mike Lowell) to Longoria and Figgins in Range Factor. Crede has committed only one error (throwing error) so far this season and has a .989 FPCT.

Its nice to finally have a gold-glove third baseman with a good bat having seen the days of Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Nick Punto, Michael Cuddyer, Luis Rodriguez, etc. The last Twin that both hit and fielded successfully was Corey Koskie, who has now retired. Aside from Kevin Kouzmanoff, Crede is the best fielding 3B in the Major Leagues. Put that in Brian Buscher's cap and wear it!

*NOTE*:

Crede's Projections from this point on:

149 Games, 548 AB, 75 RS, 131 H, 31 2B, 0 3B, 35 HR, 92 RBI, 48 BB, 88 SO, .240 AVG, .304 OBP, .488 SLG, .792 OPS

This is of course if Crede can manage to stay healthy all season. I think anybody, no matter if they like Buscher or Punto, would like these stats coming from Crede and the "not so hot in recent years" hot corner.

Poll

Are you happy with Joe Crede's performance?

Yes

60 votes

No

2 votes

Free Brian Buscher

0 votes

Content

14 votes

All-Star player at 3B? Unbelievable!

3 votes

Love him

13 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

Lineup Shakeup

33MorneauMVP — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:26:54 -0000

Twins have struggled mightly this season to find a man that can hit/move runners up/work the count to hit in front of Mauer and Morneau. As a result of this, the number 2 hole seems to be an automatic, unproductive out. This robs Mauer and Morneau and the Twins of potential RBIs. What the Twins need is to find a number 2 man that will work the count and move runners ahead. Who do we have?

Alexi Casilla:

Casilla is mired in Triple-A Rochester due to his appearing lack-luster playing. Before being sent down to Triple-A, Casilla batted: .167, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 RS, 2 SB, 1 2B, 1 3B, 6 BB, 17 K, .231 OBP, .202 SLG, .433 OPS. Not what you want from your number 2 man and starting second baseman. However, since being sent down, Casilla has turned it around: .326 AVG, 0 HR, 2 3B, 5 RBI, 7 RS, 4 SB, 4 BB, 6 K, .380 OBP, .413 SLG, .793 OPS. Certainly a different Casilla than what we grew used in the early months of this season. With this line, I think any team would be pleased to have Casilla hitting second for them.

Jason Kubel:

Kubel hit second most times in his Minor Keague career. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to find his stats in the two hole (if anybody can it would be greatly appreciated). However, I do seem to remember that Kubel hit very well in the two hole for the Minors and the few times he did in the majors, he has always impressed me by his presence in the box. Although Kubel now doesnt feature as a premier number 2 man, he certainly posses the stick and the skill to hit very well in the two hole. Further, it would provide opposing pitchers with headaches knowing that they have to face Span, Kubel, Mauer, and Morneau. It would be very hard to work through those top 4. Kubel may not posses the speed typical for a #2 hitter, but he is patient at the plate and has the power to get extra bases and also his over the wall power. If I was Gardy, I would slot Kubel into the two hole for a few games and see how he handles it.

Delmon Young:

I know what most fans on this board are going to say. Don't put DY in the two hole to kill our rallies. However, the few times that DY was slotted into the two hole this spring and with the Tampa Bay Rays, he hit very well. Delmon possesses some speed and extra base power. However, one drawback to DY hitting two is his hackiness. However, from what I seem to remember of DY hitting #2 this spring, he drew a surprising number of walks and seemed more comfortable at the plate. I am not totally sold on the idea of batting Delmon 2 in the lineup, but I think something has to be tried right now in order to find the best order in the lineup.

Mark Grudzielanek:

The old Kansas City second baseman is still on the free agent market and could easily slide into the two hole. Grud always featured a high average and a surprisingly good eye. The only thing is that he has yet to play this year and it may take him a while to get back into the swing of things. Grud is a good short term option until the Twins can find a better replacement. Furthermore, Grud always seemed to cause headaches for the Twins and most other teams despite his low stature on the stat sheet. There was a time when Grud would have been considered an all-star type player but those days are gone, but hopefully, he will not have lost his tact with the bat.

This offseason, I hope to see the Twins start to make some trades for both bullpen and a brand new SS, having been stuck with Punto for the past 3 years. Are there any SS prospects who might come at the right price and pay off? Brandon Wood (LAA) catches my eye along with Alcides Escobar (MIL). Of course, there is one name that catches my eye as a free agent this coming winter: Jason Bartlett. Of course, the Twins could trade pitchers/outfielders to Milwaukee to try and grab one of their shortstops (J.J. Hardy, Alcides Escobar) from them, with both of these hitters being excellent number 2 hitters.

Revised Lineup:

1. Denard Span - LF

2. Jason Kubel/Delmon Young - DH

3. Joe Mauer - C

4. Justin Morneau - 1B

5. Michael Cuddyer - RF

6. Joe Crede - 3B

7. Carlos Gomez/Brendan Harris - CF/SS

8. Nick Punto/Brendan Harris/Carlos Gomez - SS/CF

9. Alexi Casilla - 2B

Hopeful 2010 Lineup:

1. Span - LF

2. Escobar/Hardy/Bartlett - SS

3. Mauer - C

4. Morneau - 1B

5. Kubel - DH

6. Cuddyer - RF

7. Danny Valencia - 3B

8. Carlos Gomez - CF

9. Alexi Casilla - 2B

What are your thoughts on the revised lineup I put together? From this point, I think that the Twins have to make a change and have to slot players in certain spots to see if that makes a "winning" lineup. Furthermore, at this point, the number 2 hole is just that, a hole. Anybody would work there right now from what has come out of that spot.

Poll

Who should bat in the 2 HOLE in the lineup?

Jason Kubel

11 votes

Alexi Casilla

13 votes

Delmon Young

12 votes

Mark Grudzielanek

6 votes

Other option

30 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

Who should go?

33MorneauMVP — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:36:40 -0000

As of right now, the Twins have several very shaky pitchers in their bullpen. So, who should get cut/traded/released?

*R.A. Dickey*

Its about time that the knuckleballer went back to where he came from, wherever that is! Dickey has struggled with the Twins who hoped that his 5.52 career ERA would become a thing of the past and disappear under Rick Anderson's tootilage. However, as of yet, it has not. Dickey has posted an 4.50 ERA so far this year with the Twins organization in the long relief/mop up role. Dickey has 11 walks and 15 strikeouts through 18.0 innings giving up 9 earned runs (3 HR) and 24 hits in that span. Batters are posting a .409 OBP and .541 SLG against Dickey so far this year. His ground out/fly out (GO/AO) ratio is hovering at 1.64, while his WHIP is at 1.94. His knuckleball just doesnt knuckle in the airless Metrodome allowing opposing batters to just sit and then hammer it. In my opinion, Dickey was a bad idea from the beginning, and he is just further giving me proof. I think it is time we sent Dickey down or released him.

*Luis Ayala*

When the Twins signed Ayala, they hoped that his recovery from Tommy John surgery would be complete and he could become the next Carlos Silva. Ayala has a sinker ball, but it just doesnt seem to sink, or else it sinks into the hitters hot spots. Ayala has posted a 5.63 ERA so far this season. Some of his stats, unbearable to look at, follow: 5 BB, 10 K, 11 R (10 ER), 23 H, 1 HR, 16.0 IP. Batters are posting a .414 OBP vs Ayala with a .531 SLG. His ground out/fly out ratio hovers at 1.73, while his WHIP is at 1.75. Some of these stats are better than Dickey's (WHIP, BB/K, SLG) but most are worse. I think it is time that the Twins sent Ayala down to Rochester (I havent quite given up on him) in order for him to work through his slump (although it has lasted all season).

This opens up two roster spots on the Twins 25 man roster. Who should be called up? Who is worthy of a call-up?

*Sean Henn*

Sean is sitting Triple-A batters right back down on the bench. Henn, a left handed relief pitcher, has thrown 24.0 innings with 32 Ks. He has also walked 10 in those 24 innings but opposing batters only can hit a meager .187 average against Henn. Henn has given up 7 runs on 17 hits, but only three of the runs were earned. In Triple-A, Henn has posted a 1.13 ERA, through 15 games, with a 0.95 GO/AO. Although Henn is a left handed reliever, it would be a wise move for the Twins to bring him up to add to the lefty relief core of Mijares and Breslow; He would take Ayala's place on the roster.

*Anthony Swarzak*

Although Swarzak is a starter, he would do well in the long relief role/spot starter of the Twins bullpen. Swarzak, through 7 games at AAA, has posted a 2.25 ERA with 32 Ks in 44.0 innings. Swarzak generally is thought of as a control pitcher, as is evident with his 11 walks through 44 innings. Opponents have managed to get 40 hits off of Swarzak for an average of .248. Swarzak features a 1.02 GO/AO ratio. Swarzak probably would do better than Dickey in the long relief/spot starter role. Swarzak certainly has had his fair share of troubles, steroids a few years ago, but he has battled back and I believe that he deserves a shot at the major league level.

*Other names who feature a decent ERA in AAA:*

Kevin Mulvey (takes Dickey's spot), Bob Keppel (takes Ayala's spot), Juan Morillo (takes Ayala's spot), and Armando Gabino (takes Ayala's spot).

We are now hearing that the Twins are scouting around for a good arm for their bullpen. Names that Gammon has thrown out there: Jose Valverde, Huston Street, Danys Baenz, Russ Springer, and John Grabow.

So do you think the Twins need bullpen help or will things just work themselves out? If you do think they need help, then who should get the call to the Twins?

Poll

The Twins need bullpen help...Who?

Trade

26 votes

Swarzak

19 votes

Henn

17 votes

Mulvey

4 votes

Keppel

19 votes

Other (nominate in comments)

7 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed