As most of you already know by now, I've made the decision to step down from my position at Pinstripe Alley.

Life has a funny way of changing things; in the past year I've become the father of a beautiful baby girl, and also had to contend with some not-so-beautiful additional responsibilities at work. One of these changes has been wonderful, the other, not so much, and I'll let you guess which is which (hint: don't factor 3 AM feedings and leaky diapers into your guess).

We always have less free time than we'd prefer, but now I have a lot less of it than I used to, and it was going to be difficult for me to continue pulling my weight and carrying my fair share of the weekly schedule here at PA. I was offered a position to write one analysis post a week for the Yankees blog It's About The Money (stupid), and I've decided to accept it because it's a better fit for my schedule right now.

I want to thank the moderaters of PA these past two years, Ed, John, Travis, and Brandon, for giving me the opportunity to be a lead writer and share my thoughts with all of you. I also want to thank all of you individually for taking the time to read what I've written and comment on it. It's been a lively ongoing debate and I've learned a lot throughout the process. Lastly, I will say this - if you ever want to be a writer for this site one day, don't be shy! Write fanposts. Put your thoughts out there. (Study up your grammar, too). That's how I got started. You all have something worthwhile to add to the conversation, you just need to put it out there.

It's been a pleasure everyone. You'll still find me lurking around here from time to time, and I'd be honored if you continued to follow me at my new blog.

It's almost February, the Yankees have finally resolved their starting pitching woes, and we've all grown tired of complaining about Alex Rodriguez and A.J. Burnett, so our attention has turned to perhaps the only remaining question mark for the 2012 season - the DH position.

We've heard preposterous trade propositions (Jason Bay?? Seriously???), and the Yankees have been linked to just about every remaining free agent hitter over the age of 35, though most of them are hitters in name only these days. Personally, I'd prefer to see Brian Cashman stand pat, because at this point, with these options, there's really no sense in worrying that much about the 23rd or 24th spot on the roster, not in February or October.

When you think of the DH position, it's a pretty safe bet that the names of at least one of a handful of players will pop into your head - Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Paul Moliter. Hitters such as these have become synonymous with the position, but when you dig a little deeper, you realize that they're the exception to the rule, and it's actually quite rare for a team to carry an established, regular DH.

Continue reading this post »

More proof that it's better to be lucky than smart when it comes to prospects

According to a story by long-time Mariners beat writer Bob Finnigan in the Seattle Times on Dec. 4, 1995, the Mariners nixed a trade that would have sent pitcher Sterling Hitchcock and (Jorge) Posada to the Mariners for (Tino) Martinez and a reliever, either Jeff Nelson, Bill Risley, or, wait for it, Bobby Ayala...Why did the Mariners turn down the trade? Because the Yankees pulled minor-league third baseman Russ Davis -- Seattle's main target -- out of the deal.

Yikes. This reminds me of how Robinson Cano was one of the prospects-to-be-named later that the Rangers passed on while completing the Alex Rodriguez/Alfonso Soriano trade.

Yankees minor league system still strong

MLB Network has released it's top prospects list, and Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances both rank in the top 50, while Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams both rank in the top 100.

Get used to hearing "heir to Mariano Rivera" like a borken record over the next 12 months

This LoHud piece cites David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and Rafael Soriano as the most logical potential successors to Rivera. Um, duh.... The "heir to Mariano" is like the heir to Michael Jordan or the heir to Jerry Rice - this person doesn't exist. The New York media hasn't had a good ol' fashioned closer controversy to write about in more than 15 years so I'm sure they'll be chomping at the bit after the first blown save of the 2013 season.

Some guy named Fielder signs for a lot of money

Everybody knows this contract is already an albatross, so there's no reason to rehash points that people have already made. However, putting his (gargantuan) weight issues aside, Prince Fielder is, statistically speaking, the worst player to ever sign a $150+ million contract. Enjoy it Detroit.

If you have a son under the age of 15, teach him to throw lefthanded

Otherwise known as, "Yankees and Boone Logan agree to 1 year, $1.875 million contract".

On Monday night, Duggan posted an excellent article looking at the Montero-Pineda trade from the perspective of the Yankees offensive in 2013 or 2014, and came to the conclusion that while Pineda obviously helps the team, trading Montero potentially hurts the offense more a few years down the road, so this trade basically equates to robbing Peter to pay Paul, with the plan of robbing Paul later to pay back Peter, while really trying to avoid paying either one.

I do agree with him, at least partially: cliches (i.e. pitching wins championships) are useless, and any wise GM should be focused on the strength and depth of the entire roster, not just zeroing in the rotation or the batting lineup. However, after giving it some thought, I've come to a slightly different conclusion. I'm convinced that starting pitching does matter just a little more than hitting does, not only in the abstract but especially for this Yankees roster as the next few years unfold, and therefore losing Montero probably doesn't hurt as much as we might think it does.

Continue reading this post »

In what should come as a surprise to no one, Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers have agreed to a contract just in time to meet the negotiating deadline. The deal will pay him $10 million a season through 2017, which is either a bargain, or the going rate for a front-line pitcher, depending on how you factor in the posting fee.

Personally, I think that money is money, and since the Rangers now have to cut a check to the Nippon Ham Fighters for $51.7 million, I'll factor that into Darvish's salary, at least when we're talking about cost per WAR. On that front, assuming 5% salary inflation, he will need to be worth somewhere around 20 WAR for the life of the deal to justify the outlay, which is about what Cole Hamels and Mark Buehrle were worth from 2006-2011.

Can Darvish be Cole Hamels or Mark Buerhle? Only time will tell.

So much for Friday the 13th being unlucky! Here are my random thoughts from the craziest day of the offseason:

• Part of me is glad to see Jesus Montero go. I've repeated this ad naseum (and I will change the tagline at the end of my posts after this one last honorary hurrah), but with 1B and DH effectively blocked by older, more expensive players, his only place on this roster was as a catcher, something the Yankees brass never seemed that enthused about. Giving him the Jorge Posada treatment by easing him into full-time catching duties would have been a phenomenal waste - Posada didn't get 500 plate appearances until his 4th full season, and with Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter both on the wrong side of 35 and likely to need significant DH at-bats sooner rather than later, the odds were just far too high that Montero would wind up sitting on the bench during half of his cost-controlled years.

Continue reading this post »

Un - der - ra - ted (adverb)

-Something or someone that deserves more respect than people will allow.

____________________________________________________

We recently found out that Scott Boras met with the Yankees to discuss Edwin Jackson. The details of this meeting have yet to be released, so it's impossible to say whether this was simply a matter of fulfilling everybody's due diligence, or if there is legitimate interest on the Yankees' part.

The reaction to this news here on Pinstripe Alley was mixed, which really doesn't come as much of a surprise, but after taking a closer look, it seems that Edwin Jackson is certainly a candidate for the title of most underrated pitcher in baseball, if not the outright winner. He's not an ace, but he is better than people give him credit for, actually quite a bit better. A quick scan of the Fangraphs leaderboards shows that since the beginning of the 2009 season, he ranks 20th among starting pitchers in total WAR and 17th in innings, ahead of guys like Josh Beckett, Mark Buerhle, and Roy Oswalt. His ERA and FIP over that time have been a solid 7-8% better than league average over that time as well.

Continue reading this post »

Maybe, just maybe, all of this posturing over the 2014 payroll is really just setting the Yankees up for something bigger next offseason. RAB links us to some interesting news that might be part of the plan:

"We’ve had discussions with Cole (Hamels)," assistant Phillies general manager Scott Proefrock said during an appearance on Comcast SportsNet’s Phillies Hot Stove on Tuesday night. "Right now, we’re focused on a one-year deal."

Notice he said a one-year deal, not a multi-year extension, which means there's at least a decent chance that Hamels reaches free agency after the 2012 season. The Phillies obviously have money to spend, but re-signing him would give them 4 players with $20+ million salaries in 2014, which may be something only the Yankees can afford. I'm hoping that's the case, because if I was Brian Cashman, I'd give Cole Hamels a book full of signed blank checks to get him to come to New York.

• In case you missed it, MLB owners voted 29-1 to extend Bud Selig through the 2014 season, when he'll be 80 years old. Two questions: 1.) Which owner do you think voted no? 2.) How likely is it that the next commissioner will be young enough to NOT hike his pants up to his armpits?

• In a sign of just how slow this offseason has become, this was the seventh hit when I did a Google news search for New York Yankees:

Yankees Team Dentist Recovers Stolen Sports Memorabilia Through Craigslist Ad

How about that? I didn't even know they had a team dentist.

If you have a few minutes, take the time to read Alex Geshwand's overview of the Yankees (in)ability to develop quality starting pitchers during Brian Cashman's tenure. His main takeaway:

(I)t’s worth noting how little success the organization has had developing starting pitchers during Brian Cashman’s tenure as general manager. In fact, since Cashman took over before the 1998 season, his system has succeeded in developing exactly one front of the rotation starter.

That would be Chien-Ming Wang, who gave the Bombers three and a half good seasons before tripping over second base in Houston in 2008. Granted, we know that the Yankees paid little attention to the farm system prior to 2005, but even with that said, teams don't actually develop quality starting pitchers that often, and it's even rarer to find ones that achieved at least some of their success with their original organization. Remember, as I've been saying for the past few weeks, most prospects fail.

• Fangraphs give us their take on the Steinbrenners' newly found thriftiness. There's really nothing new in this article, but I like their final point:

The Yankees have long been addicted to overspending, but cold turkey isn’t necessarily the best way to cure it.

• Here's the Yankees B-squad for next season. I like to call it the disaster squad, because if two of these guys are in the lineup with any degree of regularity, that's what the season will probably be.

On Wednesday, I talked about how we've come to value prospects much too highly, especially the Yankees big three of Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos (you can re-read the debate here). My point was that most prospects fail to meet expectations, so while it makes sense to try graduating some of them to the big leagues, refusing to trade any of them for established, cost-controlled young players is foolish.

One factor I didn't consider, however, is the opportunity cost associated with trading them now, and that may weigh more heavily in the decision-making process in the minds of fans at least. Let's Talk About Tex hit the nail on the head:

The value of a prospect isn’t limited to what he produces on the field. So in addition to weighing the cost of acquiring a player vs. the projected success of the prospect(s) you’re giving up, you also have to weigh the available player against other players who might become available in the not-too-distant future

Continue reading this post »

• River Avenue Blues has a bold suggestion that actually isn't that bold - trying Joba Chamberlain as a starter again. This is out of desperation, more than anything else:

Joba Chamberlain at his peak is the number 2 starter the Yankees are searching for. In an offseason where the Yankees have chosen not to throw money at big money targets like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle, or even one year deals for the likes of Hiroki Kuroda or Roy Oswalt, Chamberlain lays in the weeds as a cost-controlled option already on the books. A lottery ticket sitting in the Yankees’ wallet that doesn’t even require a trip to the store. If the 2008 version of Joba the Starter turns up, he’s an improvement over every non-Sabathia member of the current rotation. If 2009 Joba turns up, he still may be an improvement over back-end question marks like Phil Hughes, Burnett and an even older Freddy Garcia.

• The Yankee Analysts disagrees, however, and thinks Brian Cashman should kick the tires on Joba's trade market:

(B)y the time he is fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery, Joba will still be a 26-year-old power arm with experience as a starter. Last time I checked, the Yankees weren’t the only team in need of starting pitching help, and Joba is dangerously close to becoming an afterthought in the Yankee organization for the reasons mentioned above, so why not try to stir up some interest around baseball and see if there’s a market for him?

I'm not sure what I think. Joba is in something of a no-man's land right now, as the Yankees already have plenty of good relievers and don't need a "6th inning" guy, along with a handful of major-league ready starters in AAA like Hector Noesi and Adam Warren to back up the guys currently slotted for the five rotation spots. I hate to say this, but he's almost in the same territory that Ian Kennedy was prior to 2010.

I've been saying for almost 2 years that Joba doesn't need to be an ace as a starter, he just needs to not suck horribly. If the Yankees are willing to gamble on 30-something reclamation projects like Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia (twice, no less), I have a hard time understanding why they can't do the same for a 26 year old who can still light up the radar gun. What do you think?

The Yankees have had a a glaring need for quality starting pitching even before Cliff Lee spurned them last offseason, yet during this time there has been no shortage of good starters available. Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dan Haren, and Zach Greinke have all changed hands since July 2010, all of them with at least two years of team control (and often several more) at below-market salaries remaining, and any one of them would undeniably rate as the Yankees second-best starting pitcher today.

Yet Brian Cashman has sat on the sidelines, either wisely or foolishly, depending on your point of view, unwilling to part with the minor league prospects necessary to acquire that mythical #2 starter.

I understand that prospects provide flexibility for a team that's loaded with expensive veterans on long-term deals, so it makes sense for Cashman to incorporate some of them into the team's plans. However, the Yankees' primary objective isn't simply to be young and cheap, it's to win, and I fear he and Yankees fans alike are overlooking the obvious.

Continue reading this post »

• You know the rumor mill is winding down when this is your best remaining free agent team.
• According to Ken Rosenthal, the Indians have kicked the tires on Nick Swisher. I doubt anything happens as the Yankees have no in-house replacement for Swisher and the Indians don't really have anything the Yankees need.
• Javier Vazquez may be back in 2012 after all.
• Multiple sources are reporting that Scott Boras is seeking a 10-year contract for Prince Fielder. The Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, and Blue Jays all appear to have legitimate interest, albeit not for 10 years. Which leads us to our question of the night:
  
  
  

The offseason calendar is plodding along, and shortly after the new year the newest inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced. Every sportswriter and blogger will then chime in about who made the cut, who didn't, and far too many will take this opportunity to pontificate (again) about why steroid users are dirty rotten cheaters.

Looking ahead, though, I never realized the logjam that's about to unfold in the next few years.

My cutoff for Hall of Fame consideration is around 50 career WAR. Anybody who's reached that threshold clearly played long enough and enjoyed a high enough level of consistent success to merit serious consideration, and I think this is a good place to start separating the contenders from the pretenders.

Here's this year's ballot. Each member of the BBWAA can vote for up to ten players, and there happens to be ten players who meet my threshold for consideration, plus a handful of guys like Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, and Lee Smith who don't but have still garnered a decent amount of support.

Continue reading this post »

• Rany Jazayerli shares his thoughts on prospect mania, and he's spot on. Prospects are valuable, but the degree to which teams are valuing them these days is ridiculous. The Yankees have three very good prospects - Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos - but also a huge need for a starting pitcher in 2012 and 2013. Yet somehow, all three of these guys have been basically deemed untouchable.
  
• The Yankee Analysts chime in with general musings on the Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos trades, and the John Danks non-trade. One question: is the price of pitching too high, or are are Washington and Cincinnati ahead of the curve in realizing prospects are actually worth less than we think?
• RAB helps you answer that question I just asked. I'll ask it it again in the poll.
• Put some of your Christmas money together for this. I don't think this is a joke, either.

Raise your hand if the Yankees have excited you this offseason.

That's what I thought.

At this point, it's highly likely that 95% of the Yankees 2012 roster is already with the team, and the 5% that's still undecided probably consists of utility infielders, fifth outfielders, or middle relievers, which leaves very little to get excited about from now until Spring Training starts.


I suppose that's the way it should be. The Yankees did win 97 games last season despite a starting rotation that nobody believed in, an offense that relied too heavily on the longball, and a $30 million DH/3B who was dragging the whole thing down.

Continue reading this post »

How much do you buy into the idea that they Yankees are looking to keep payroll down for the 2014 season. It's About The Money seems to believe it pretty strongly:

When you add up the revenue sharing refunds with the savings on the luxury tax and the decrease in payroll, ownership will stand to make in excess of $50 million annually in exchange for staying under the $189 million threshold. .....In other words, get ready for some lean winters, and start praying to the deity of your choice that the front office crew has a dramatic turnaround in their track record of developing starting pitchers.

In my book, it's dubious to count money saved in decreased payroll as an incentive - "you'll save $5 by not spending $5 dollars" is stating the obvious. It would be better to say the Yankees will save around $30 million in revenue sharing and luxury tax by spending $20 million less on payroll for 2014, but when you put it that way, I think the argument becomes a lot weaker.

There is no precedent for the Yankees holding back due to finances. Sure, they've gotten wiser these past few seasons, but avoiding overpriced mediocre free agents is a seperate issue. When the Yankees have a need, and an elite player is available to fill it, money has never been an object. I don't expect that it will be going forward.

• On a lighter note, this would never work if you or I tried it, especially if this is what's in the gift basket.
• The Yankee Analysts takes a closer look at maximizing A-Rod's playing time in 2012 and beyond, primarily by DHing him 5-6 times a month, as opposed to the 8-10 times a year he's been doing it the past few seasons, thus proving my tagline correct.
• Per Jon Heyman, who's faily well connected, the bidding on Yu Darvish is sky-high. So that brings us to today's poll:

• In a move that shocks nobody outside of the Rays organization, Tampa Bay locked up Matt Moore to a long term deal today, for 5 guaranteed years and $14 million, as well as through option years that could total another $25 million. For a small market team like the Rays, heck, even for a large market team like the Yankees, this is the smartest thing you can do. Moore actually has more postseason innings (10.0) than regular season innings (9.1), and is now set for life, while the Rays take on virtually zero risk - $14 million of 5 years is peanuts even for them.
• Looks like the Marlins are probably going to do the same thing with Mike Stanton (not the former Yankees pitcher).
• The Brewers odd partnership with Francisco Rodriguez will continue next season as he's accepted their offer of arbitration, which means that once the 2012 season is over, the Milwaukee will have probably wound paying him about $18 million for 100 innings of relief work since the 2011 trade. Let that sink in for a minute.
• The bidding for Yu Darvish is currently open, and will close on Wednesday.
• Question of the night -
  

With all the free agency splashing this week, the news of Brian Cashman's willingness to eat some of AJ Burnett's salary in a trade has gone relatively under the radar. The Yankee Analysts hits the nail pretty squarely on the head about Burnett's tenure in New York, and wonders if this is really a sign of things to come:

By outing themselves for their lack of support, the Yankees have effectively killed any chances they had of getting something positive from A.J. over the next 2 years. After making these offers, there’s no way the Yankees can bring him back and expect anything from him. He’s a wasted roster spot. And the $33 million they still owe him has now gone from being an opportunity cost to essentially a sunk cost for the Yankees. The majority of the contract is a sunk cost already, so if it’s about money you’re really just putting a lipstick on a pig at this point.

The Yankees typically haven't been a team that eats a ton of salary in trades, or simply cuts bait on players with multiple years remaining, but Burnett probably stands the best chance of being the first player to buck that trend. Expecting anything other than 2010-11 results from him going forward is just fantasy, and with all the baggage he brings to the table, I say it's time to move on.

Continue reading this post »

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, Pujols has agreed in principle to a 10-year deal with the Angels for $250-$260 million dollars and a full no-trade clause (not that anybody would trade for him now).

Let that sink in for a minute.

Alex Rodiguez is the only other player that has signed a contract in this price range, not once but twice, and he's generally hated for it. Some of this has to do with perception: money aside, Rodriguez is viewed as being prickly, cold, and calculating, while Pujols is generally well liked by the media and fans.

Nevertheless, at some point it's all about what happens on the field.

Both times that Rodriguez signed his record setting deals, he was coming off 9+ WAR seasons. Pujols, by comparison, is coming off of a 5 WAR season. Obviously, that's not shabby, but whether this is a fluke and Pujols ultimately returns to his 7-8 WAR self, or it's a sign of things to come the way that Rodriguez's 2008-2009 seasons were, remains to be seen. And that's huge here.

Any team that signs a player to a 10 year contract knows that they're probably going to have to write off the final 2-3 seasons, but they pray that's it. Whether or not Pujols rebounds to his pre-2011 levels next season will go a long way towards figuring out whether this contract will work out like A-Rod's first one did, or like his second one probably will.

• Jon Heyman is reporting that the Astros are shopping Carlos Lee, Brett Myers, and Wandy Rodriguez. Lee had a bounceback season last year, but given his recent history, I doubt any team would be interested, even at 15 cents on the dollar. Myers is a little more interesting, but he gaves up way too many home runs to succeed anywhere but Petco, Safeco, and Comerica Parks, and he's owed $14 million. Wandy Rodriguez interests me, as he's done well enough in a hitter's park that I think he'd be able to succeed in the AL East. He'd be owed $39 million over the next three seasons, but if the Astros were willing to do a Roy Oswalt-type trade - in other words, eat half the contract and only ask for B-level prospects - I'd talk to them.
• Are the Tigers really in on Jose Reyes? Justin Verlander is due a big raise next season, so Detroit would need to bump it's payroll back into the $130-$140 million range to make this happen.
• The Rays are interested in bringing both Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman back next season. I really have no idea why.
• The Rangers are trying to lock Mike Napoli up long-term. Since they're a rival of the Yankees, I hope they pay assuming that he'll keep putting up .450 wOBAs (because he almost certainly won't).
Use this as tonight's open thread, and enjoy your evening!

Much has been said about the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement and how it's significantly altered the nature of the draft, almost certainly for the worse. Personally, I think everybody is probably overreacting at least a little, and I'm more interested in applying the new rules to the last two drafts to see what things might look like going forward.

The last two drafts unfolded as follows:

2011 - Round 1: 33 picks Supplemental round: 27 picks Round 2: 30 picks.
2010 - Round 1: 32 picks Supplemental round: 18 picks Round 2: 32 picks

As you know, under the new guidelines, teams that lose a player now receive just a supplemental pick, and that's only if they offer him (at least) a 1 year contract that equals the average of the top 125 salaries in MLB (around $12 million right now). The team that signs that player still loses their first-round pick, but instead of transferring it to the player's old team, that pick now simply disappears. This changes the draft pretty significantly.

Continue reading this post »

• Has it really been that long?

Bernie Williams is on the Hall of Fame ballot

Of course, I don't really think that Bernie is a Hall of Famer. Whatever measure you prefer to use - WAR, MVP Awards, how much he was "feared" - he doesn't make the cut. But, today's Hall of Fame voting seems to exist in some alternate universe, where Jack Morris gets more votes than Jeff Bagwell, and since Bernie played for the Yankees, and (as far as we know) didn't use steroids, you never know....

• A lot has been said about Mark Teixeira's struggles from the left side of the plate season (here, for example). What I wonder is at one point does a switch-hitter STOP being a switch-hitter and simply bat from the same side of the plate all the time? Has there ever been one? Tex is still a fine ballplayer, he's still above average from the left side, but like a lot of things, I'd love to see a team get creative and try this with a player at some point.
• In the event that Jorge Posada does play in the majors next season, don't worry about his Yankees legacy:

Yogi Berra didn’t harm won hair of his legacy when he became a Mets player-coach in 1965, and subsequently the team’s manager. Babe Ruth was still the most beloved Yankee of his time despite going to the Boston Braves in 1935. At the time of his death, Thurman Munson was campaigning to be traded to the Cleveland Indians.

When was the last time you watched an NFL game, saw the kicker come out for the point after attempt, and said to yourself "boy, I'd like to see that guy try to play left tackle"?

When was the last time you watched an NBA game, and saw 5'5, 135 lb Earl Boykins and said, "boy, I'd sure love to see him try to guard Lebron James"?

If you've ever said either of these things, then I can't give you a hard time if you enjoy watching National League pitchers walk up to the plate and flail helplessly at the opposing pitcher's offerings.  But if you haven't, and I suspect most of you haven't, then I really can't buy your argument against the DH.

You heard the other side of this argument yesterday, but as much as I like Travis, I have to disagree wholeheartedly.  The DH is a wonderful thing, and after universal instant replay, it's the one thing that Major League Baseball needs to institute immediately.

Why? 

Continue reading this post »

There are probably a half dozen legitimate picks for starting a franchise around, but if I had the first overall pick in the new franchise draft, my choice would be pretty easy: Evan Longoria.

Why?

• Longoria is one of the most well-rounded players in baseball, providing tons of value on the field at a premium defensive positions as well as with his bat and on the bases.
  
• He's young.  Having just turned 26 about a month ago, Longoria already has two 7+ WAR seasons under his belt, and his probably not in his prime yet.  Why?
• He's still getting better.  His strikeout rate has dropped, and his walk rate has increased, in each of his four MLB seasons.  2011 seemed to be a statistical down year for him, but it appears to be more a fluke than a trend.  He only got hits 24% of the time when putting the ball in play, ordinarily he's closer to 30%.  Put his new, higher walk rate and power rate with a typical BABIP, and you're looking at a .300/.400/.550 season.  That plus good defense from a third baseman, and you're looking at the one player in baseball most likely to put up a 10 WAR season in the next few years.
• In case you weren't already sold, Longoria is signed to the most ridiculously team-friendly contract that we're likely to see in a long time.  Assuming that his no-brainer options for 2014-2016 are picked up, the Rays will have Longoria under control for the next 5 seasons for a total of $40.5 million, or about 30% more than what A-Rod made last season.  Longoria is likely to provide the Rays at least 30 WAR over that time, and that kind of value should ensure that they'll be competitive throughout the next half decade.

• It's hard not to like the Yankees re-signing of Freddy Garcia.  After losing essentially the entire 2007-2009 seasons to injury, he has reestablished himself as a decent, back of the rotation starter, posting back to back 25+ start, 145+ IP seasons.  He's not an ace, but he's a dependable arm to have in the fold, and at a 1-year commitment for about 2% of the team's total payroll, he should be a bargain again in 2012.

• With all the outcry about the new CBA, and the new restrictions it places on amateur and international talent, I'm reminded of a simple fact:

Most prospects never turn into quality major league players

• The new "luxury tax" in the CBA may very well stem the flow of talent into the majors, by directing multi-sport stars away from baseball and perhaps also by causing high school players to choose college rather than a professional career right away.  On the other hand, the amateur draft was the best bargain in baseball before this, and even with a 75% luxury tax, it's still probably the best bargain in baseball. Teams will go over slot less often than they did, but you can be sure that they still will.  Plus, if enough teams go over slot and lose their 1st and 2nd round picks, that portion of the draft could eventually be rendered meaningless.  Some smart GM will figure out how to manipulate the draft to his team's advantage by 2013 at the latest. 
• What are some Yankees players thankful for?    
  

A.J. Burnett should be thankful that he had Russell Martin behind the plate all season in 2011.  Who knows how high A.J.’s record-setting wild pitch totals would have been with somebody else back there?

You're all probably sick of Japanese pitchers, right?  Well, there's another one that's apparently on the market, and the Yankees are reportedly interested in him:

Wei-Ying Chen is a 26 year-old, 6’0″ 176 pound left-handed pitcher for the Chunichi Dragons.

In Chen’s career with the Dragons, he has gone 36-30 with a 2.59 ERA, 7.2 k/9, and 2.2 bb/9.  His best season was in 2009, when he led the league in ERA with a gaudy 1.54 (league average was 3.55)

Now, by my own admission I have never heard of him nor do I think he'd be a good or a bad signing.  I do, however, think that this type of scenario is probably where teams would be best served scouring the Japanese leagues for talent.

Let me explain.

Continue reading this post »

They just had to go there, didn't they:

It was Jorge Posada who first mentioned Bernie Williams last night. Posada said he’d been talking to Williams a lot this offseason — in fact, the two had talked earlier that day — and Williams was advising patience. He didn’t want Posada rushing to a decision, one way or the other, about whether to play next season.

I can't say that I would accept reality and retire with grace if I was in Posada's situation.  But Bernie Williams is probably the last person he wants to be conversing this with right now.  There is a World Baseball Classic coming up, and I don't want to see Posada playing in it......

The prospect of AJ Burnett playing elsewhere next season is more of a possibility than you probably think, and the Braves recent trade of Derek Lowe to the Indians would probably be the benchmark.  After all:

Chien-Ming Wang, who has thrown 62.1 innings in the last two years, got a $4 million guarantee. While that deal itself doesn’t necessarily set the bar, the dearth of free agent pitching could certainly push up prices. If we look to last off-season as a guide, Jake Westbrook got two years at $16.5 million, as did Carl Pavano. Javy Vazquez, coming off an unimaginably bad season, got $7 mil. Those types of deals can happen when there’s not much pitching on the market.

If the Yankees ate enough of Burnett's salary that the new team would only be on the hook for around $5 million a season, I think they'd have some suitors.

Enjoy a weekend of football, baseball rumors, and that other sport where they chase each other on the ice with sticks (I forget what it's called - I don't watch it).