SB Nation User Blog: 3k

3k's 2010 Mock Draft, v2.0 (Nov. 4th)

3k — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:42:52 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

This is often all you see of Ndamukong Suh - his arms and legs wrapped around the QB as the fumble he just caused goes bouncing away. Will he be the #1 overall pick? Will he be the Rams next 1st round D-lineman? Will he both?!

Browse more photos »

I dropped a quick mock draft after the 2009 draft, but quite a bit has changed. After the fold, I've got my second mock draft. Join me, shall you not?

I went ahead and projected the rest of each team's schedule and then calculated each team's strength of schedule to have a hypothetically accurate draft order. And bear in mind, too many things happen leading up to the draft, so I know most of these will be way off, so calm down. Very few people saw Tyson Jackson going 3rd to the Chiefs or HeyBey going ahead of Crabtree. Let's do this.

Round 1

1.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-15) - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

This is becoming a consensus pick for Tampa, though I've seen few mocks with them picking first. I could see them going after Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma St.) or Eric Berry (S, Tennessee) here, but I would think with D-line being such a huge need and having Suh and Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida) available, one of those would be the top pick if Tampa leads off the draft.

2.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-13) - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.

The Chiefs get a young anchor for their line and can move Branden Albert back to his natural position. I wouldn't be surprised if they find a way to move Larry Johnson (or just cut him outright), so C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson) would make sense if they're a bit lower down in the draft order.

3.) Cleveland Browns (3-13) - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

So three picks in and no QBs. But the talent of these three is tough to ignore, especially here for Cleveland. Berry is a vulture at the back of the Vols defense, and he could do the Browns a world of good at the back of theirs. The Browns have a lot of rebuilding to do with Jamal Lewis at the end of his career the Quinn/Anderson saga in full flux, and their GM being fired - Berry is the kind of player you can lean your defense on as you fill in the gaps.

4.) Tennesee Titans (3-13) - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Kerry Collins is finished, and Vince Young has been handed the reins to see if he can reignite his career. I have my doubts. Nevertheless, at #4, the Titans have a chance to grab the QB of their choice and build an offense that starts with Sam Bradford and ends with Chris Johnson. Not bad at all.

5.) Oakland Raiders (3-13) - Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

*insert Al Davis joke here* Look, we all know Al is pretty damn wacko and he loves the workout warriors. Well, Dunlap is set to drop one hell of a combine. Richard Seymour will likely hit the free agent market; Dunlap gives them a freak athlete on the D-line.

6.) Detroit Lions (3-13) - Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lions take Spikes here even if Larry Foote does come back. Spikes is a terror of a MLB, even when he's not gouging out opposing RBs' eyes. Similar to the Stafford pick in this year's draft, Spikes gives them a centerpiece to build around.

7.) Seattle Seahawks (4-12) - Jake Locker, QB, Washington

The Seahawks need to revitalize their offense starting with QB. Locker will be riding a hometown media wave into Seattle giving the franchise a much needed jolt. John Morgan at Field Gulls wrote a great scouting report on Locker that was heavily against drafting Locker in the first; however, with Hasselbeck under contract through 2010, the Seahawks could be justified in drafting Locker and letting Hasselbeck mentor him for a year. It may not be the prettiest conversion, but it could be the most beneficial.

8.) Washington Redskins (4-12) - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

In drafting Clausen, the Skins get an accurate, intelligent, game manager. He'll need a younger weapon then Santana Moss, Antwan Randle-El or Chris Cooley soon, but this gives whoever the next head coach is (assuming Zorn is booted this offseason) his signal caller of the future.

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss

I talked it over with Jags fans thinking DE and QB were their biggest holes, and I came away thinking the same. The Jags get a force at DE that BPAniks could even justify, especially if Hardy has a good combine. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see a QB here, except for Tebow. I just don't see any franchise sacrificing their rationality for their emotionality.

10.) St. Louis Rams (5-11) - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.

This is the lowest you'll find the Rams on any mock anywhere. And sure, you could chalk it up to homerism, but if the Rams go 4-4 in their last 8 games, I'll be sure to remind you. Besides, it's a mock draft; I'm trying to predict schedules, free agency moves, roster cuts, combine and pro day performance along with franchise cultures (i.e. the Raiders & Redskins). Cut me some slack.

In any case, I've got the Rams taking the best WR prospect in the draft who brings not just size, speed and hands, but return experience. You could certainly make the case for a QB here or Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma), but if the Rams are sitting at 10 and Dez falls this far, I'd be surprised if he isn't their pick.

11.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

With "The Real" McCoy (apologies), Buffalo continues rebuilding their trenches after using three of their four day 1 picks in the 2009 draft on linemen. In McCoy, they get a serious interior pass rusher to play alongside Marcus Stroud. Buffalo could go a number of different ways here, but given how line focused their last draft was, they could continue to go that route again, and form a very impressive foundation for the future.

12.) San Francisco 49ers via Carolina Panthers (6-10) - Taylor Mays, S, USC

This one just makes too much sense. The Niners get the wrecking ball at the back of the Trojans' defense who adds even more punch to the Mike Singletary Project. If the Niners do make this a reality, they would be amassing a very violent defense.

13.) 49ers (7-9) - Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

On the other side of the ball, it's pretty apparent that Singletary has never been comfortable with Alex Smith, Shaun Hill or ex-Niner J.T. O'Sullivan. Taking a QB with one of their two 1st rounders would give him "his guy" moving forward with an offense that includes the RB tandem of Gore and Coffee (or as I like to call them CoffeeGore - it sounds like a B horror movie about a Starbucks) and the suddenly fantastic fantasy TE Vernon Davis.

14.) Green Bay Packers (8-8) - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Ryan Grant is a bit of an enigma, and adding the electric Spiller makes them less one-dimensional. They could certainly use him on special teams as well. I don't think he'd hold up well if he has to carry a team alone early in his career, but similar to Dallas' Felix Jones, he could be a wonderful change of pace for almost any team.

15.) New York Jets (8-8) - Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU

It's a win-win with this pick whether or not the Jets re-sign Braylon Edwards. The Jets could use another WR to help Sanchez along, and LaFell is the best blocking WR I've seen in a long, long time. He's got great body control, but he has to improve on his hands to be a more reliable possession target at the NFL level. As a Rams fan, I'd love to see us get his teammate, Terrance Toliver, later on in the draft if he declares, but we'll end up with too high of a pick to nab LaFell.

16.) Miami Dolphins (8-8) - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

Miami has shown a knack for the specialist: in last year's 2nd round, it was future wildcat anchor Pat White, and in the '07 draft it was (as ESPN finally decided to notice) kick returner supreme Ted Ginn, Jr. In Mount Cody, they get another specialist: a elephantine nose tackle for their 3-4. I say specialist, because he lacks stamina (ESPN insider only). He's lost about 50 pounds...to slim down to about 375. The ESPN label for him is going to be "one-dimensional", but I don't think that will stop the Dolphins. He can be a huge asset (pun intended).

17.) San Diego Chargers (9-7) - Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse

I'm making this based on what I think the effect will be from Williams' combine & pro day. I say that for two reasons. First, if it was on talent and collegiate production, I'd grade him as a mid-1st rounder. But he's had so many off field problems, and this last one persuaded him to abruptly end his college football career. That second reason would drop him down, but I think his pre-draft work will remind people that he can be a force on the football field - think Brandon Marshall 2.0. While Vincent Jackson may re-sign with the Chargers, they could use another weapon to help Philip Rivers guide these team back to the post-season.

18.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) - Jahvid Best, RB, Cal

Cincinnati is making the most out of Cedric Benson right now; adding Best gives them a great duo that can offer power and speed, brute force and lithe athleticism. Cincy has shown this year that they have a very well balanced team with very few holes; more than most teams, they can afford to commit to the draft with a BPA mindset. That being the case, I don't really expect Best to be the pick. Either someone more talented will slip through the cracks (as in Spiller or Mays who they could team up with former sledgehammer Rey Maualuga) or they'll grade someone higher than Best as in OLBs Rolando McClain (Alabama) or Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri), Joe Haden (CB, Florida) or Sergio Kindle (DE, Texas).

19.) Denver Broncos via Chicago Bears (9-7) - George Selvie, DE, South Florida

Denver produced a gem out of Elvis Dumervil, a former 4th round pick out of Louisville who they transitioned to OLB in their 3-4. In Selvie, they have a tough decision to make. He'll list a couple inches taller and a couple pounds lighter. They could always package him on the same side as Dumervil to toggle the weights on that side, but who knows. That's a depth chart decision for Josh McDaniels to make.

20.) Dallas Cowboys (10-6) - Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama

Dallas has shown a penchant for signing aging LBs recently in Zach Thomas and Keith Brooking. In McClain, they get a steal in BPA terms. McClain is a technical LB with a shell of desire and tenacity wrapped in a 255 lb. frame. The exact kind of LB the Cowboys need in a younger body.

21.) Houston Texans (10-6) - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Haden is the best corner coming out this year. In fact, I would put him alone in the top tier of CB prospects. It's just not a good class for CBs this year. That bodes well for Houston who could certainly use his services. Their best CB, Dunta Robinson, is set to be a free agent this offseason. Like other teams above, they'd be better off with this pick whether or not they bring their key FA back.

22.) New England Patriots (10-6) - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Ben Watson never really developed into a top-tier TE, though he is a nice option. Gresham would provide Brady & the Pats more than just a nice option; he's 3 inches taller than Watson and more athletic, IMO. In fact, he's got tons of raw talent, but his game needs quite a bit of polishing. The Pats have the right kind of staff that can turn Gresham from a prospect into a superstar very quickly.

23.) New York Giants (11-5) - Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse

The Giants are struggling to impose the kind of defensive will they did when Spagnuolo was the DC. With both Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield playing in contract years, the Giants could use a powerful DT like Arthur Jones to open things up for Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck.

24.) Arizona Cardinals (12-4) - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

The Cardinals drafted a solid RT in Levi Brown in 2007; they can get their other tackle in Williams and solidify their O-line for the good of their running duo - Hightower and Wells. Now about that QB issue...

25.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa

The Curtain has gotten mixed results from RT Willie Colon. He's got solid upside, but between the penalties and the mental mistakes, I think the Steelers could let him walk since his contract ends after this season. Bulaga is a meaty tackle who can withstand the late season weather in Pittsburgh.

26.) Minnesota Vikings (12-4) - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

Back-to-back Big 10 picks give the Norsemen a force behind their ridiculous D-line. Weatherspoon is the Tigers' leader on defense, and he could carry that to the NFL under the tutelage of OLBs Chad Greenway and Ben Leber, who are both playing under contracts that expire after what would be Weatherspoon's rookie season.

27.) Atlanta Falcons (12-4) - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

While I'm skeptical of JP-P having just arrived to FBS football from the Juco ranks, he has taken some of the focus away from Selvie. He measures well and he's definitely played his way into contention for the draft. I wonder if he'll declare for the draft or wait a year for the DE prospect pool to thin out, because it's going to be overflowing with talent in this draft.

28.) Indianapolis Colts (13-3) - Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn St.

Bowman injects some technique to the Colts' power defense. His biggest flaw is his pass rushing skills, but with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the Colts can absorb that flaw easily.

29.) Seahawks via Broncos (13-3) - Damian Williams, WR, USC

DWill is a solid athletic WR prospect who would give rookie Jake Locker a more athletic option than TJ Housh. He needs to add some bulk to his frame, but he should have time. He is the most polished route-runner in the draft, so it would add some certainty in that aspect tot the passing game.

30.) New Orleans Saints (14-2) - Sergio Kindle, DE, Texas

The Saints could bolster their defense, which has been impressive this season, by adding Kindle. He's a high energy, high impact LB/DE prospect who could be the eventual successor to Scott Fujita.

31.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) - Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois

My pick for AFC champions right now, the Ravens can't make the most out of Joe Flacco due to their WR corps. Derrick Mason came out of "retirement" to return to the Ravens, but they can't rely on that moving forward. Benn is of solid build and has electric talent, but he is very unpolished. Flacco and he could be a serious tandem for the Ravens for years to come if Coach Harbaugh can develop Benn into a more technical weapon.

32.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) - Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Griffen is a powerful end with above average speed who is still improving. After the Eagles win the Super Bowl, they'll look to fill their last D-line hole with EG. The Eagles line is young and talented - a mixture that Griffen would fit in perfectly with.

So there it is, v 2.0. I'll add a second round next time; right now, things are bound to change so signnificantly that I don't know if it warrants the effort to even put a second round together.

Some names that didn't make the 1st round: Tim Tebow, Jevan Snead, Jonathan Dwyer, Ciron Black, Jerry Hughes, Trevard Lindley and Earl Thomas.

Holler at me.

Poll

If the Rams end up with the #1 overall pick, who should they pick?

3k from Turf Show Times back for some mock help

3k — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:26:25 -0000

Hey Jags fans. I'm back again and this time I've got the questions. You guys might remember I stopped by before the Jags-Rams game. I would have liked to have prodded for some more questions, but my wife went into labor and I ended up missing the game. Priorities schmiorities, I say.
Anyway, I'm the de facto draftnik over at Turf Show Times, and you guys helped me when I was putting together my 2009 mocks, so I figured I stop by and see what you guys are feeling mid-season.

What prospects are getting hyped here at BCC? What positions are you guys hurting at? Obviously RB and OT are off the board, but what other positions to you guys feel comfortable at? Hook a brother/new father up!

Grading the Rams & Overreaction Monday: Week 8 @ Detroit

3k — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:27:08 -0000

Was it ugly? Very. Was it painful? Surely. Was it a win? Apparently. A win is a win, and I'm more than happy to accept it - the Rams deserved it. Still, this game proved we are still a pretty bad team. Let's get to the grades and overreacting.

QB: F

- Bulger did nothing to win the game yesterday. Whereas Steven Jackson put the team on his back and carried us, Bulger added extra weight to drag along. I said in my preview, "I really feel this game comes down to Bulger and his ability to dissect a poor pass defense with limited weapons." Had it not been for a fake FG and ActionJackson's heroics, Bulger would be getting a lot more heat than he is today.

- On a side note, this has to be the last season for Marc Bulger on the Rams. Cut him, take the hit, and move on. There's no reason to pay out his ridiculous contract.

- Marc Bulger likes to throw balls at D-linemen's hands.

- And on the power slide, where was the desire? Remember week 1 in Seattle when he went mouth-to-mouth with the Seahawks? That was desire. That was the will to win. I don't know where it went, but I'm not interested in trying to resurrect it in Bulger.

HB: A+

- We all know how great Steven Jackson was/is, but in case you aren't feeling my criticism of Bulger not taking over, here's what it sounds like:

So he did a rather curious thing as he walked into that huddle to start this critical, do-or-die drive. Jackson walked up one end of the huddle and down the other, peering into the faces of his teammates. He stared at the linemen, glared at the tight ends and receivers, and went facemask to facemask with his fullback with one specific purpose in mind.

"I told them, 'I just want to see if you're afraid,'" he said.

Afraid of what?

Afraid to win or scared to lose.

And here's what it looks like:

Ridiculous.

WR/TE: D

- The standout from this group? Amazingly, it was Billy Bajema who caught two balls for 43 yards including a crucial 3rd down conversion. But that says something when your blocking specialist TE was the key receiver. Sure, Fells made a great play on the FG-that-wasn't, but nothing else. Which brings up another point - Randy McMichael is done. Fells and Bajema are a receiver/blocker duo that should work unless we snag a TE in the draft, but I'd feel comfortable with those two in 2010.

- As for WR, Keenan Burton did a good job getting involved early, but once Steven Jackson took over, his services were no longer needed. Will they be next season with the return of Laurent Robinson? It's an easy no if we draft a top WR, bring one on through free agency or if Brandon Gibson (who was invisible yesterday save for a mistimed incompletion) develops into something impressive over this last half of the season. And please, please stop trying to use Donnie Avery in possession routes. You can't catch slants with your chest, or at least he can't. He showed it last year in flashes and this year and droves - he has horrible pass catching skills. Use his feet to open up defenses, not his hands PLEASE.

O-line: B+

- After a so-so opening half, the O-line turned it on in the second half opening up chasms for Steven Jackson to rumble through. There's a reason why he averaged 7.4 yards per run in the second half and it was the play of the line. Was it a coincidence that Jacob Bell sat out much of the half? No. Was it a coincidence that we did it without Incognito? Yes. Whereas Bell has been a disappointment for a year and a half, Spagnuolo showed his mentoring ability early this season, turning Incognito from a blockhead into a blocker. Bell should join Bulger, McMichael and Alex Barron on the market this offseason.

D-line: B-

- Uh, Chris Long got a "sack". Hooray?

- Speaking of Long, why does he insist on hitting the "C" and running all the way around a pocket? Make a move at the B once in a while. It was how Leonard Little got his sack.

- LaJuan Ramsey had two tackled for a loss and Leger Douzable had one. Doesn't Spagnuolo deserve a top-talent DT? The Giants are already worried about their defense without Spagnuolo at the helm. We need to give him the kinds of tools he had in NY if we want to make the most out of his presence.

- And Chris Long got a sack. I know I said it already, but it's worth repeating.

LB: D+

- I thought this was the worst game by our LB crew. Stafford dumped off to his RBs for as many receptions as his WRs & TEs combined, and for good results. Kevin Smith was the Lions' leading receiver (thanks to the gelatin hands of Bryant Johnson). And some sloppy tackling early had me in hysterics.

- We need to draft a young, sack happy SLB. I appreciate the effort we're getting out of our OLBs in Larry Grant, David Vobora and Paris Lenon (who had a decent game against his former team), but I'd like to see some talent at the position. It would be a huge boost to our pass rush to have a better blitzing SLB.

- Teams are going to gameplan away from James Laurinaitis. He's so much better than anyone else in the front 7, OCs are going to isolate him and take him out of the play as much as possible. Linehan was somewhat successful in doing it yesterday, though Laurinaitis did end up with 7 tackles.

DBs: B-

- How did we only get 1 INT?

- BTW, I would like to forget that interception as much as I'm sure James Butler would. To see a rookie mistake made by one of your most seasoned veterans is, well, something Rams fans should be used to by now. But I'm not. For shame, James.

- Quincy Butler didn't play half bad yesterday. I'm still a bit confused at the revolving door we've had at the #2 CB spot that started with Jonathan Wade, then was handed to Bradley Fletcher whose injury gave way to Q. I'd just like to see some consistency because...

- Ron Bartell is getting burned way too often. A top CB could be our biggest need going into the 2011 draft if Bradley Fletcher doesn't come back 100% and make huge strides. Again, had Bryant Johnson not dipped his hands in melted butter before the game, he could have embarrassed Bartell on numerous occasions. Instead, he ended up with two catches for 43 yards...on eight targets. Bartell should send him a thank you card.

- What happened to Oshiomogho Atogwe's interception addiction? It's obvious coordinators implemented what I'm anticipating for Laurinaitis against Togs this year, but I would still like to see him getting after the deflections more often, especially yesterday. OJ's only got 1 INT this year, and that came in week 1. Until we force teams to play at him, they'll just keep going at Bartell.

ST: A-

- Donnie Jones is the best punter in the NFL.

- And yes, it was a great call by ST coach Tom McMahon on the fake. Fells was beyond wide open. There's not even a term for how open he was. US-Mexico border open? 7-Eleven open? I'll go with open like a frog in science class. Good call. If Spags gave it the nod, kudos to him as well.

- Someone needs to block better for Amendola. He took a beating yesterday.

So there it is. Not too much overreacting...because I was saving it for this:

Enjoy these two weeks. We're winners again.

Chapter 3, Game 8 - @ Detroit Lions (Nov. 1st)

3k — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:59:28 -0000

I just received an advance copy of the script to the new movie Steven Jackson: First Blood. I thought I would share some of it with you.

INT. OFFICE OF JIM SCHWARTZ, HEAD COACH OF THE DETROIT LIONS

Schwartz paces nervously in front of his offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan. His office is a collection of the relics that remind him he earned his job, and the endless clutter that cuts off any nostalgic daydreams. His job is a herculean one - turn the Detroit Lions into a winning team. He knows he has to get his victories when he can. The upcoming game against the St. Louis Rams is one of those opportunities, but instead of being overcome with optimism or eagerness, Schwartz is tense. His mind is filled with the kinds of images that make mothers scream, that make children stay awake at night, afraid to close their eyes. His mind is on Steven Jackson.

SCHWARTZ

You know most of these guys; I mean, sweet corn niblets, you were the head coach, Scott. What the hell do we do?

LINEHAN

Sir, I don't really know. He's special. And besides, I wasn't very good.

SCHWARTZ

Damnit, Scott, you know that doesn't make one bit of difference! If our defense gets out of line, you come to me with it! And if I find out it's like you say, then I kick the player's ass! ME! The head coach! People start messing around with the head coach and all hell breaks loose. Whatever possessed God in heaven to make a man like Steven Jackson?

MIKE RILEY, HEAD COACH OF THE OREGON STATE BEAVERS

God didn't make Steven Jackson. I did.

SCHWARTZ

Riley! I should have known. Well, I'm taking your boy out on Sunday. If I have to, I'll send 200 guys his way.

RILEY

You send that many, don't forget one thing.

SCHWARTZ

What's that?

RILEY

A good supply of body bags...

Breakdown after the fold.

For game-specific info, check out the SBN pre-game page. For Lions news leading up the game, check out Pride of Detroit .

St. Louis Rams, 0-7, 4th - NFC West

Detroit Lions, 1-5, 4th - NFC North

Parentheses include NFL rankings in that area out of 32 teams. Statistics taken from ESPN & FootballOutsiders.

STL pass - 127/221, 57.47% (23rd), 165.71 yds/gm, 5 TD, 6 int, 70.0 rat, -14.5% pDVOA (25th)

DET pass D - 147/198, 74.24%, 258.5 yds/gm (30th), 17 TD, 4 int, 118.7 rat (32nd),

44.8% pdDVOA (31st)

One thing you can't knock Detroit's CBs for is experience. William James, Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry have been in the league for a combined 27 years. But with little help from a pass rush, they've struggled against opponents, especially being in the NFC North. Louis Delmas, the Lions' rookie FS, is a great talent at the back, but this is a defense that has too many holes.

Unfortunately, the Rams passing offense has been pretty cut and dry. Take our last game against the Colts. Outside of Marc Bulger's early connection with Donnie Avery on a 50-yard flea flicker, the Rams passed the ball 25 times for 90 yards. Horrendous. If there is a game where that kind of ineptitude is absolutely unacceptable, it's this one. This is a game where Bulger has to get people off of his back. He has to own this. He has to manage the game, spreading the ball around to Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton Danny Amendola, and the tight end duo of Randy McMichael & Daniel Fells. He has to involve Steven Jackson through the air to ensure our best player gets as many opportunities as possible to control the game. But I really feel this game comes down to Bulger and his ability to dissect a poor pass defense with limited weapons.

STL run - 25.43 rsh/gm, 111.29 yds/gm (16th), 4.38 yds/carry, 0 TD (t-31st),

-14.4% rDVOA (25th)

DET run D - 24.17 rsh/gm, 112.33 yds/gm, 4.65 yds/carry (28th), 5 TD, -6.8% rdDVOA (15th)

Larry Foote, Julian Peterson and rookie DeAndre Levy form a respectable trio that blends the experienced Pro Bowl talent with youthful vigor. They'll have their hands full this week, because asfans of other teams know, the Rams are winless and Steven Jackson is greatness.

Last week against the Colts, Jackson busted his ass for a season-high 134 yards. You have to give him credit for the effort; he's one guy you can definitely say is not mailing it in. The concern is what happens if the frustration bubbles over. There's no reason to think it'll be anything like Larry Johnson's debacle, but you can see the warning signs. Let's just hope if he does lose it, he doesn't take it out on anybody you hold dear.

STL O-line - 2.29 sacks all./game, 3.94 rbALY (Run Blocking Adj. Line Yards) (18th),

6.5% ASR (Adj. Sack Rate) (16th)

DET D-line - 3 sacks/game, 4.20 drbALY (21st), 6.3% ASR (18th)

While Detroit's D-line isn't very good, keep an eye on Cliff Avril. He's an agility DE, and he could take advantage of a Rams O-line that is very much in flux at this point. Plus he likes jeans. If La'Roi Glover did the Rams any favors, one of them would be the practice our offensive linemen got by playing against old, fat tackles. They'll get one of those in DT Grady Jackson. He's at the tail end of a productive career, but he's half the player he used to be. Figuratively speaking of course.

With Richie Incognito out, the Rams will need a big game from Adam Goldberg. The Rams will have a huge advantage if they can block out the middle similar to what we saw in the second half against the Colts when Steven Jackson started ripping off runs between the tackles. If not, it's going to get very angry on TST and for good reason. This is a battle the Rams should win.

DET pass - 119/212, 56.13%, 194.17 yds/gm (21st), 4 TD, 10 int, 61.7 rat (26th),

-31.7% pDVOA (30th)

STL pass D - 149/223, 66.82%, 249.57 yds/gm (25th), 11 TD, 5 int, 98.7 rat (28th),

38.4% pdDVOA (29th)

Matt Stafford looks like he will go, while Calvin Johnson is a game time decision. That really leads itself to a deciding point when Stafford has the ball - interceptions. Stafford has thrown 6 picks in just four games, and that was with a healthy Megatron. The Rams need to capitalize on his inexperience and then make the most out of that field position. Of course, it would help significantly if we can get a pass rush going to try and force some throws, but with James Butler, Oshiomogho Atogwe, and Ron Bartell healthy, you would think we could get something done on that front. Keep an eye on rookie TE, Brandon Pettigrew. At 6'5", he's a big target, and the Rams have shown a proclivity for losing pass defense battles against TEs.

DET run - 26.5 rsh/gm, 99 yds/gm, 3.74 yds/carry (t-23rd), 5 TD, -10.9% rDVOA (22nd)

STL run D - 31.57 rsh/gm, 135.86 yds/gm, 4.30 yds/carry (21st), 11 TD (t-31st),

9.9% rdDVOA (29th)

St. Louis' team rushing defensive stats took a hit after the Colts game from another deceptive performance. Before the game, if I had told you Joseph Addai would finish with just 64 yards on 20 carries, you would have probably assumed two things: one, that the Rams killed off any long runs from the Colts, and two, that the Colts got a great game and didn't have to rely on the run. You would have only been right on the latter. Although we limited Addai, Donald Brown ripped off runs of 45 &13 yards, giving extra punch to an offense that really didn't need any. To win this game, we can't give the same help to Kevin Smith.

James Laurinaitis has to rally his defense, including David Vobora who is set to return from his suspension, to killing off the run and forcing Stafford to go to the air. Smith Has only had one good game, and that, unsurprisingly, was in Detroit's lone victory this season (or last) against Washington. The correlation shouldn't be shocking. When you can give Stafford and Johnson some help on the ground, Detroit can make things happen.

DET O-line - 3.67 sacks all./game, 3.33 rbALY (30th), 9.1% ASR (27th)

STL D-line - 1.71 sacks/game, 4.24 drbALY (22nd), 5.0% ASR (27th)

Another key matchup between units that are special, but in a bad way. When I stopped by Pride of Detroit last year to get some help with my mock draft, the majority of readers not only agreed that they needed an O-lineman or defensive help with the first pick, but roundly criticized me for mocking a QB at the #1 pick (who at the time was Sam Bradford). Even when I mocked Stafford to the Lions after Bradford left, the reaction was negative. Well, that didn't happen, and Detroit is still feeling the pain on the O-line. Outside of LT Jeff Backus, it's a pretty weak line including Dominic Raiola who, IMO, is one of the most overrated centers in the NFL. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, although he is serviceable. I've just seen his name thrown around more often than it should be.

On our side of the ball, it's all about the pass-rush-benjamins, baby (damn, that's an outdated reference...). The Rams have to keep Stafford uncomfortable and ensure he doesn't get enough time to just wait until Calvin Johnson isolates himself. Chris Long has as good a chance as any to get on the sack board this week. Should he fail to do that, he's only going to get more scrutiny going into the bye. Hell, if this team doesn't get a victory, these next two weeks are going to be absolutely brutal. We've got to come with it this game.

This week's top 3 storylines brought to you by the wild pizza crusts of eastern Asia:

1.) The Rich Gold (S. Korea, Pizza Hut) : The Rich Gold is for the discerning pizza eater, including a crust made of sweet potato mousse. For the Rams to have any shot on Sunday, Marc Bulger has to be as smooth as sweet potato mousse - no lumpy interceptions, the even temperature that sees consistency throughout and no hot or cold pockets, and a great finish in the red zone (which for the Rich Gold pizza is that inexplicable collection of stuff in the middle.

2.) The Mizza (Taiwan, Pizza Hut) : Is this really a pizza? A layer of what looks like a tortilla under Spanish rice and then some kind of tostada. It's more like the revenge of different foods I've thrown up at some point in my life. Still, it is a three-layered beast -- exactly what the Rams defense needs to be. A layer of pass rush topped with a tier of sure tackling and finished with a hungry pass defense. Delicious.

3.) The ShrimpyCheese Bite (Japan/S. Korea, Pizza Hut): Let me just say, I apologize for what I am about to show you. You have the choice to turn back now. I urge you to do so....

The ShrimpyCheese Bite is a relatively normal pizza with a crust made out of shrimp stuffed with cheese, covered in dough and deep fried. The atomic bomb, sex change operations, and the ShrimpyCheese Bite - sometimes mankind's imagination and scientific wizardry leads to things that hinder us more than help us as a society. And yet something drives us to these things like a 3k to a beer. So it is with the Rams. I wish I didn't have such a desire to spend so much attention on such a ShrimpyCheese Bite pizza of a team. It's ugly on the outside, and it makes it hard to try to get to the middle of it. Still, there's something oddly enticing about these Rams. So much youth - I can envision a 2011 playoff-bound Rams team with names like Steven Jackson, Donnie Avery, Jason Smith, Chris Long, James Laurinaitis delivering. At the same time, to get to that team, I had to eat the ShrimpyCheese crust of Adam Carriker, Brian Leonard, Joe Klopfenstein and Tye Hill. Even though I paid for a pizza, I feel like a I got something else.

Go Rams!

Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no,...

3k — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:45:51 -0000

Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and the Detroit Lions will be one for the history books (no, seriously). Both teams have lost 17 of 18 games and 25 of their last 27. And if the Rams go 0-16, and it would make this game the only matchup in NFL history between a team coming off a win-less season and a team on its way to a win-less season.

The Rams-Colts game and our next game, against the Lions, was the subject of a recent story at Inhistoric, SBN's community for sports history.

Overreaction Monday: Week 7 vs. Indianapolis

3k — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:10:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Rams defensive end Leonard Little sits on the bench during the final minutes of the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009, in St. Louis. The Colts won 42-6, and the Rams made 3k sad.

Browse more photos »

Overreaction abounds this Monday morning. Just check out the post-game overreaction from the usually rational Bryan Burwell. His is the classic overreactor's demise - going from the optimistic overreaction to the pessimistic. So let me join in on the fun.

- Our secondary needs to work on ball recognition and pass deflection timing. Often, yesterday, we had defenders who had positioned themselves for near-perfect coverage only to be undone by a perfectly lobbed pass by Peyton Manning. Still, you have to think that better timing on the switch from player defense to ball defense would have negated some of the passing plays the Colts enjoyed yesterday.

- Truncated overreaction #1: Steven Jackson is the greatest running back to ever play on a team as bad as the 2009 Rams.

- Is there a bigger crapball than the WR orphanage we have set up? (For context, a crapball is like a snowball except that it is made of crap, and as the crap rolls along, it just picks up more and more crap thus increasing its inherent size and crappiness). Let's review some the craplights. After the successful flea flicker to Donnie Avery on our first drive, we had a 1st and 10 at the Indy 14. A 2 yard run set us up with a 2nd and 8 at the 12, a healthy position to be in, but the Rams squandered it by targeting Tim Carter in back to back plays. Those two plays were the only two times he was targeted in the game, begging the question, why in the hell are you looking for Tim Carter in the red zone? Where was Daniel Fells, a receiver who has shown he can produce in the end zone? Why not use Steven Jackson? As our best player, shouldn't we be relying on him more in the red zone than anywhere else on the field? Mindboggling. And Keenan Burton is killing me. He has the hands and the footwork to be a solid complementary receiver to Donnie Avery, but his timing is still slow. How much time does he need to develop into a productive 3rd WR? Granted, he's been pressed into duty as our #2, but he's got to show a more consistent dedication to the details that separate a 8 yard hitch or out from an interception. And I know we have enough issues to deal with from a personnel standpoint this offseason, but sometime soon, the Rams either need to promote Fells as the starter to see how viable he is or bring in a real TE. Randy McMichael is useless. On the bright side, Danny Amendola is proving to be a very solid addition to the team. He finished with a team high 5 receptions for nearly 40 yards. That is as much a point of approval for Amendola as it is a point of disapproval for Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton.

- Truncated overreaction #2: Samkon Gado is still getting carries why?

- Marc Bulger's situation is going to be very interesting, because he has played himself out of a future with the St. Louis Rams. At what point that moment comes is yet to be seen. Obviously, there's enough frustration among the fan base that were he to be cut this offseason, you wouldn't need many tissues to help the sobbing. I wonder, though, if he would be of use next year to groom whoever we bring in to helm this team as we move ahead. And yes, we need to bring in our next QB this offseason. The question is, do we need Marc Bulger as a mentor next year, because if so, you have to assume he still gets the starting nod. This is obviously a relatively touchy subject, so I'll leave at this for now because I know we'll get to it more thoroughly in the months ahead.

- Truncated overreaction #3: The Colts have no shot at getting to the Super Bowl because their running game is a joke.

- Lastly, I was unimpressed with Flajole's game plan. We threw a lot of nickel and dime looks (as in formations, not as in Virgil Solozzo) that were exploited by Manning & Co. despite relatively tight coverage. The real issue was how easy it was for Manning to get on schedule with Reggie Wayne early thanks to a lack of pressure. Our D-line was inept yesterday when it came to getting pressure as a four man front. Once Manning proved his ability to produce in spite of our coverage, I was hoping we'd throw some extra bodies at the Colts' O-line. Ah, the audacity of hope.

- Truncated overreaction #4: Overreacting is usually more accurate than reacting.

Poll

Which player has produced the more disappointing 2009 as of 7 games?

QB Marc Bulger

83 votes

WR Donnie Avery

41 votes

WR Keenan Burton

9 votes

TE Randy McMichael

29 votes

DE Chris Long

119 votes

281 votes | Poll has closed

Chapter 3, Game 7 - vs. Indianapolis Colts (Oct. 25th)

3k — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:30:54 -0000

This intro has been removed by the Center for Disease Control for suspicion of being contaminated with H1N1 flu. Please wear a mask while reading the rest of this post, and if you or anyone you know sneezes, has a runny nose or a sore throat, farts, takes a nap, blinks, wears pants or has a first name with at least one vowel, please escort them to the nearest medical provider for immediate castration.

Breakdown after the fold.

For game-specific info, check out t t he SBN event page for this game. For Colts news leading up the game, check out Stampede Blue.

St. Louis Rams, 0-6, 4th - NFC West

Indianapolis Colts, 5-0, 1st - AFC South

Parentheses include NFL rankings in that area out of 32 teams. Statistics taken from ESPN & FootballOutsiders.

STL pass - 113/195, 57.95% (23rd), 173.83 yds/gm, 5 TD, 4 int, 74.3 rat, -6.6% pDVOA (22nd)

IND pass D - 120/195, 61.53%, 192.4 yds/gm (9th), 2 TD (1st), 4 int, 71.0 rat,

-11.2% pdDVOA (8th)

On paper, this doesn't look like a matchup in the Rams' favor. In reality, though, it's worse. It's not so much that Indy's pass defense is incredibly talented, but that the pressure they get up front makes it tough for teams to go deep on them. While Marlin Jackson will miss this one, it's not as if the Rams have the WRs to take advantage. The real question mark is what effect Brandon Gibson will have. Still, it's hard to believe the Rams will have much success through the air. if anything, it may be a combination of Randy McMichael and Daniel Fells who has a significant impact rather than the WRs. Short good news in closing: Donnie Avery will play.

STL run - 24.67 rsh/gm, 104 yds/gm (17th), 4.22 yds/carry, 0 TD (t-30th),

-18.5% rDVOA (28th)

IND run D - 25.4 rsh/gm, 103.2 yds/gm (14th), 4.06 yds/carry, 4 TD, -0.9% rdDVOA (23rd)

If there's a game that Steven Jackson is going to have to win for us, this is it. The passing game may slide us out of a 3rd down or two, but the big play ability is pretty much non-existent for this team. It's going to have to be Cowboys 2008 redux - Steven Jackson is going to have to take over. Is it possible? Strangely, yes. Gary Brackett has been dealing with injuries, it looks like Freddy Keiaho will sit out, and Indy's OLBs may be the weakest positional grouping on the team. For this to happen, both Mike Karney and the O-line are going to have to be on board for the big play.

STL O-line - 2.17 sacks all./game, 3.81 rbALY (Run Blocking Adj. Line Yards) (19th),

6.0% ASR (Adj. Sack Rate) (15th)

IND D-line - 2.6 sacks/game, 4.49 drbALY (27th), 6.9% ASR (13th)

Before getting into the player specifics, the numbers reinforce what I said above. Indy is susceptible to the run, but gets a good pass rush thanks to Dwight Freeney. If Alex Barron can continue to play like an OT about to hit the free agent market, then maybe Bulger can have a decent day. Still, to have any shot, it's going to come down to the running game. This is a good chance for Jason Smith to get work in on both sides and prove his worth in terms of run blocking.

IND pass - 133/181, 73.48%, 326 yds/gm, 12 TD, 4 int, 114.1 rat (2nd), 69.1% pDVOA (2nd)

STL pass D - 126/189, 66.67%, 252 yds/gm (27th), 8 TD, 5 int, 95.5 rat, 36.9% pdDVOA (29th)

If our running game is the facet that has to work perfectly to win it, this is the unit that has to play perfectly for us not to lose it. Let's be blunt - it doesn't matter who the WRs are, Peyton Manning can orchestrate a passing offense as well as any quarterback ever.

With Ron Bartell and James Butler back, the secondary is healthy. Some help from the D-line to pressure Peyton would go a long way. If it's entirely up to the CBs to shut down the Colts' passing offense, it could get ugly.

IND run - 23.6 rsh/gm, 78.8 yds/gm (29th), 3.34 yds/carry, 5 TD, -0.5% rDVOA (14th)

STL run D - 32.5 rsh/gm, 132.5 yds/gm, 4.08 yds/carry (18th), 9 TD (t-30th),

6.0% rdDVOA (27th)

Nothing to see here, really. Indy doesn't try to establish much of a run game despite having some talented youths in Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown. The key here is to make sure the Colts don't suddenly develop a running game. The Rams can't afford to give Manning any more weaponry.

IND O-line - 0.4 sacks all./game, 3.92 rbALY(17th), 1.9% ASR (2nd)

STL D-line - 2 sacks/game, 4.21 drbALY (22nd), 5.3% ASR (25th)

Here's the real breadwinner for the Colts - their pass blocking. When you can protect a talent like Peyton Manning as well as they have (2 sacks through 5 games), you're going to get great returns. I don't really expect the Rams to flip the switch and suddenly wreak havoc on QBs, but with Larry Grant on Dallas Clark and Peyton pointing and tippity toeing through his usual QB mannerisms, we have to find a way to at least get in his face.

This week's top 3 storylines brought to you by the number 0. Zero - it's more than -1:

1.) Sacks by Chris Long : At the beginning of this season, I said I wasn't as concerned with our win-loss record at the end of the season as I was with what kind of progress (or regress) I saw in our young talents. To be blunt, Chris Long needs a sack now. I don't care if it's a cheap ass sack where Peyton trips and Chris just puts a hand on his shoulder. The mental hurdle of his first sack needs to be passed ASAP.

2.) Rushing TDs by Steven Jackson: Aside from the depression and anger the Rams provide me with, the greatest emotion I have felt this year has been the pity I feel for Steven Jackson. To see his talent squandered on a rebuilding team yanks at my sympathy strings. Maybe I should send him a card...

3.) Wins during the Spagnuolo era: Just like the mental hurdles Chris Long and Steven Jackson are dealing with, Coach Spagnuolo has one of his own. He has to validate his approach to coaching the Rams not so much to the fans or the media, but to himself and his players. Granted, it's not all about Ws; Ron Zook has guided the Redskins to two victories this season after all. But for the Rams to turn a corner as a franchise with Spagnuolo controlling the ship, we have to get a win...eventually.

Go Rams!

Labor pains

3k — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:47:21 -0000

As 3k explained how much more effective Marc Bulger could be as the Rams' QB with a more seasoned possession receiver, his daughter slowly drifted to sleep... and dreamed of Julio Jones in a Rams uniform.

View full size photo »

So I was just about finished with my preview of the Rams-Jags game when my first child decided to modify her status as "unborn" Saturday night. Of course she didn't grace the world with her presence until Monday, but that was just long enough to ensure I didn't get to watch the game. Worse things have happened. And to those of you who offered your congratulations, thank you. I will amend my will so that you each get a roll of toilet paper from my estate when I pass. To those of you who didn't, may your butt be itchy. A couple reflections on the weekend and first half of this week:

- Trying to keep up with your team by watching the tiny ass ticker in the top corner of CBS' broadcast is maddening. They didn't even show highlights from other games in progress. I guess that Patriots-Titans contest was so close, they didn't want to miss a lead change...

- Doctors suck. I have all the respect in the world for medical workers; they know all kinds of stuff I don't, but there seems to be a disconnect on that point. I don't know all that crap, because I don't want to. It's not like you're some genius who figured out the Phaistos Disk. So when your equipment and your expertise lead you to figure something out and you need to do something to keep me, my wife, or my child alive, just run it by me in layman's terms. I don't really care about my baby's tributive inplasmigate levels and how they're accelerating slower than normal from a lack of riboflavin and potassium. Because when you tell me that and I ask, "So, uh, what do I do?" and you say "Nothing," you have just wasted my time trying to look smart. So to all the doctors out there, take a hint from the nurses - don't be a douche.

- What is with calling babies "baby"? Isn't one of the advantages of naming your child that you can now refer to the child by name? Did Emmitt Smith write the Big Book of Grammar for the post-delivery medical field? "Baby probably need to sleep. She had a long day and now baby tired, so look out for Dwight Freeney. He really is a force to be reckoning with."

- Having a daughter saps about 90% of your masculinity. I'm hoping I recover most of it.

- The Raiders beat the Eagles? Really? And I'm glad I'm not a Redskins fan. That offense is sickening.

- I disappear for five days and we trade Will Witherspoon? At least it wasn't Laurinaitis.

- And lastly, if you don't really follow "your team", don't spend money on the accessories. There are few things as frustrating as approaching someone wearing a shirt with a team logo on it and trying to strike up a conversation only to find you don't know a damn thing about "your team." One of the employees in the hospital was wearing a Jaguars polo, so I approached her yesterday to ask about David Garrard and their rookie OTs. She had little to no idea what I was talking about. On Monday, I saw a guy get out of his car which had a huge Carolina Panthers decal on the back. In short, the conversation ended abruptly with his telling me, "Steve Smith has put up huge numbers this year, man. Just look at the numbers." In other words, if you're wearing a piece of clothing with your team logo or have it on your car, be prepared to back up your purchase. If you read Turf Show Times, you know damn well you can roll out in blue and gold head to toe.

I'll get the preview of the Colts game out ASAP. Holler.

Quincy Butler fined $7,500 for horse collar tackle

3k — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:12:37 -0000

Quincy Butler fined $7,500 for horse collar tackle

So just to recap, a horse collar tackle on Percy Harvin will cost you $2,500 more than a cheap shot after the play that takes out a DT for the season. The logic of the NFL is tough to understand by the normal human mind...

The NFL has fined Minnesota offensive tackle Artis Hicks $5,000 for unecessary roughness for...

3k — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:36:16 -0000

The NFL has fined Minnesota offensive tackle Artis Hicks $5,000 for unecessary roughness for shoving St. Louis Rams defensive tackle Gary Gibson on a play that ended Gibson’s season with a broken ankle.

Yay?