As some of you know, I like to poke around trying to find hidden gem draft prospects for the Niners. Came across this guy in one of Rob Rang's blog posts ... WR Dale Moss of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. 6'3.5" and 213#

In high school played WR on football team, G on basketball team, long-jumped on track team; all-state WR in football. In college, starting guard on basketball team for four years ... 7.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and led team (as a guard) in blocked shots and offensive rebounds. Decided that he wouldn't make it in the NBA, so decided to return to play football in his senior year only (2011-12) ... 10 games, 61 receptions, 949 yards, 6 TDs, 15.6 yards/reception.

Wait a minute! Four years of basketball and one year of football? Why are we talking about this guy? Here's why. Moss wasn't envited to the Combine, but SDS just held the Pro Day. Here is how Moss did in the underware olympics versus top WRs at Combine:

Reading from left to right -- 40 time, Verticle, Broad, 3-Cone, Short Shuttle

Blackmon -- 4.54 / -- / -- / -- / --

Floyd -- 4.47 / 36.5" / 10'2" / -- / --

Wright -- 4.45 / 38.5" / 10'1" / 6.93 / 4.18

Hill -- 4.36 / 39.5" / 11'1" / 6.88 / 4.48

Randle -- 4.55 / 31.0" / 10'1" / 6.99 / 4.36

Dale Moss -- 4.42 average* / 41.5" / 10'10" / 6.32 / 4.08

* Winds, 4.38 - 4.45

Rang thinks that he will be drafted in the fourth or fifth round. Don't know if any Niner scouts were present. Check him out on the net.

We seem to be in a bit of a lull with respect to the Niners activity in free agency. Yet there is lots of speculation concerning what will happen. Here are my thoughts:

1. The delay in getting Alex signed has nothing to do with IF or HOW MUCH ... rather, I think that it's all about waiting to structure the specifics to accomodate other free agent signings. Alex knows that he is going to get paid, but he is also a team guy and wants to help strengthen the offense.

2. Give up Pick #30 AND award a huge contract for Mike Wallace? I know that a lot of folks are clamoring to do just that, but ... I just don't see any way that the Niners will do that. It's not their MO and they won't spend money that way.

3. If they won't go after Wallace will they try to sign any other free agent wide receivers? The two most likely additions that I see would be Chaz Schilens (Oakland) or Legedu Naanee (Carolina). Brandon Lloyd? Don't see it ... too much of an ADDITIONAL (to Randy and Cox) me-first headcase. Ted Ginn? Maybe ... depending completely on price.

4. Other than WR, I think that the most likely free agent additions could be an OG and perhaps a RB. Who might they be? OG candidates might include Ben Grubbs (Baltimore), Evan Mathis (Philadelphia) or Chad Rinehart (Buffalo). RB candidates might include BenJarvis Green-Ellis (New England), Michael Bush (Oakland) and MAYBE Brandon Jacobs as a goal line hammer.

What are your thoughts?

Since the conslusion of the Combine there has been a plethora of mock drafts ... both here on Niners Nation and across the Internet. Fooch has posted the annual 49ers Mock Draft Data Base, which basically summarizes what other people think about our draft picks. To be honest, I pay a lot more attention to our group's draft thoughts than any of the other guys out there, pros or amateurs. Why? Simply because most the those guys have no real understanding of the Niners needs in any depth. And why should they? In many cases they're trying to cover the needs of all 32 teams ... tough to know any one in depth. Our group does a better job because we're more knowledgeable about the particulars and care more about this team.

What I'd like to do with this piece, rather than assembling a list of my own like-to-haves, is try to project what I think the Niners' FO will actually do in April's draft. It isn't about what I'd like them to do, but rather what I think that they will do. I'll simply try to emulate what Baalke and Company will do during the draft ... select the best remaining prospect, within the general limitations of need, at each pick. Meaning? I think that they'll select the best available prospect but not if he plays a position where we have NO need. Along the way I'll try to explain why I think that they'l do what I project.

Wait a minute ... I already see a problem! How are we supposed to know in advance who will be available at each pick and who won't be? Obviously we can't ... and that is precisely why most mock drafts don't make any sense. All of you are aware of the wide range of evaluations by the different drafting services offering their views of a prospect's worth and where he is most likely to be selected. The one thing that we can be sure of is that no two groups will have the same opinion. Thus, who to trust as being the "most reliable"? While I track the rankings of six different services in my draftee data base, I won't bore you with the pros and cons of each. For this exercise, let's just agree to use NFLDraftScout's opinion as to prospect rankings. Why them? Because, in most cases they tend to be the most conservative of the services that I track ... that is, they usually expect any given prospect to be selected sooner (earlier) than most others; thus, if they think that the guy will be available at a given pick, there is a very good chance that he will be. They're certainly not always right, but far more often than most.

Some of the variables have been resolved ... we know, for example, that Ahmad Brooks, CJ Spillman and Dashon Goldson will be back for the 2012 season. However, there are still a lot of unknowns, so we're going to have to make some assumptions. Here are mine:

Our own free agents:

1. First, I assume that Blake Costanzo and Alex Smith will re-sign with the Niners by Monday and thus never really see free agency.

2. Next, I assume that Ted Ginn, Larry Grant, Joshua Morgan, Carlos Rogers and Adam Snyder will "test the waters" in an attempt to get more than they believe the Niners will/have offer(ed); I hate to say it, but I don't think that we can assume that any of these guys is a slam-dunk to return; all have value in the open market and may sign elsewhere for more (or longer in Rogers' case) than the Niners will offer. I hope that I am absolutely wrong here ... I'd like to see all of these guys return, but the fact is that it is a business, not a game. If we lose any of these players I believe that Baalke will replace them with other mid-tier free agents but not the big-dollar guys (for example, maybe a CB CHRIS Carr, but not a CB BRANDON Carr).

3. Finally, I assume that the Niners will let the following free agents walk: Tavares Gooden, Moran Norris, Justin Peelle, Chilo Rachal, Reggie Smith, Bret Swain and Madieu Williams.

Other-team free agents:

1. As for the big-money free agents like WR Vince Jackson (San Diego), WR Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) and OG Carl Nicks (New Orleans) ... sorry guys, I just don't see it happening! Why not? "Cap hell" in the last generation killed the Niners for years; consequently, I think that the FO has learned, with Paraag driving that bus, that the big-FA strategy may sell some tickets in the short term but ultimately kills the team ... the goal is to continue to get better, but not just for the short term.

2. Second-tier free-agent players of interest could include WR Marques Colston (New Orleans), WR Robert Meachem (New Orleans), WR Pierre Garcon (Indy) or OG Jeremy Zuttah (Tampa Bay). (Update: Damn it ... the Bucs just signed Zuttah to a four-year extension.)

3. Depending upon whether Carlos Rogers returns or not, I could see the Niners possibly signing CB Tracy Porter (New Orleans) or a similar free agent cornerback.

Trades:

We could make all kinds of assumptions concerning potential trades -- both down and up -- but that simply gets too complicated, especially if you include future-year picks. So, for simplicity, I will just assume that Baalke takes a plain vanilla approach and goes with the picks that he has.

Team Needs:

On offense -- WR OG RB

On defense -- CB S DE OLB NT

An Evaluation of Need-Position Prospect Availability: Boy, that's a mouth full. What does it mean? Glad you asked ... let me try to explain. When you look at the rankings of prospects at our positions of need and our drafting position in each round, some interesting things come to light:

1. Wide Receivers -- The only first-round-rated wide receiver likely to still be available at Pick #30 is Stephen Hill (Ranked 31). The next guys down are Alshon Jeffrey (47), Muhammad Sanu (69) and Nick Toon (72) ... way too much of a reach for round one and surely gone by round three. However, the WRs likely to be available at our third-round pick will be nearly as good, maybe better. Conclusion: get a WR in the first or third round, but probably not the second.

2. Offensive Guards -- Obviously DeCastro and Glenn will be gone before Pick #30. The next tier down of OGs, with immediate-starter capabilities, won't go until the mid- to late-second round ... we may or may not get a shot at one. But that is further complicated by the fact that the next OG further down probably has a bright future but he is another developmental project and nowhere near being ready to be a starter. Conclusion: hope to get an OG in the second round or we'll have to settle for a developmental project in the third or fourth round. (That is why I was hoping that we would get a shot at signing FA Jeramy Zuttah from Tampa Bay, but he'll not be available.)

3. Running Backs -- Not really a lot of possibilities here ... we most certainly will not select a RB before the third round at the earliest and there really isn't a better than crap-shoot prospect after that. Conclusion: if we want to get a viable RB it's got to be in the third round; anybody later is a wing and a prayer. This circumstance isn't really all bad though because the 2013 RB draft class will be much stronger than this year's -- if we don't get Frank's ultimate replacement this year, we can next year in a higher round.

Finally ... the Projected Draft:

Our three most significant needs in this draft are WR, OG and CB, so I think that it is reasonable to assume that the Niners will focus on those three positions early in the draft (the first three rounds) unless some other-position stud should surprisingly fall to them at a given pick. Therefore, at each pick I will list each of the prospects (and their current ranking by NFLDraftScout) that I think that the Niners will consider at that pick, then highlight the one that I think that they will actually select. With that, let's give it a go:

ROUND 1 / PICK #30:

WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 6'4" 215 4.36 -- Ranked 31

TE Coby Fleener (Stanford) 6'6" 247 4.77e -- Ranked 46

OG Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) 6'4" 314 5.39 -- Ranked 36

CB Stephen Gilmore (South Carolina) 6'0" 190 4.40 -- Ranked 38

Obviously there is a reasonable chance that Hill may go before #30 ... particularly given his Combine performance, the subsequent hype and, lastest, his Pro Day. However, if he is there, I believe that the Niners will select him because he is simply too good a prospect to pass up at their biggest position of need. So why is Fleener (a TE) on the list? Because, if Hill is gone, I think that they have to at least consider the potential benefits that Fleener offers ... he's as much a WR as TE, he's a huge target, he has great hands, he can create big matchup problems, he can block decently, he knows the offense, and he fits perfectly into Harbaugh's tight-end-featured system. At decision time I think that they pass on Fleener at #30, but I could be wrong. So what do they do instead if Hill is already gone? Select Kevin Zeitler as a plug-and-play starting RG on maybe day five of training camp and leave him there for the next ten years. Dan Kilgore becomes the immediate backup OG and we wave goodbye to Snyder and Rachal. In the possible event that both Hill and Zeitler are gone, we select Stephen Gilmore, the best remaining CB on the board.

ROUND 2 / PICK $62:

WR Brian Quick (Appalachian State) 6'4" 220 4.55 -- Ranked 71

OG Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) 6'4" 311 5.43 -- Ranked 65 (assumes WR Hill seleected at #30)

CB Trumaine Johnson (Montana) 6'2" 204 4.61 -- Ranked 53

CB Dwight Bentley (Louisiana Lafayette) 5'11" 179 4.43 -- Ranked 63

FS George Iloka (Boise State) 6'4" 220 4.66 -- Ranked 68

SS Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) 6'2" 213 4.57 -- Ranked 51

DE Cam Johnson (Virginia) 6'4" 268 4.81 -- Ranked 75

OLB Shea McClellin (Boise State) 6'4" 260 4.63 -- Ranked 55

It's doubtful that CB Trumaine Johnson, SS Harrison Smith or OLB Shea McClellin will be available at Pick #62, but if any of them are, I think that the Niners have to consider them here. However, if they didn't select Zeitler at #30, Silatolu is the last OG prospect that would have a shot at challenging Kilgore for the starting RG position; later OG prospects are all developmental types. Having gotten a WR at #30, I think that the Niners get the OG here.

But, whoa, what if they didn't get Hill (or Fleener) at #30? What then? If they took OG Kevin Zeitler at #30, then I think that they select a CB here ... hopefully Johnson if he's still there, otherwise Bentley. On the other hand, if they took CB Stephen Gilmore at #30, then they still take OG Silatolu here and wait to get a WR at Pick #93.

ROUND 3 / PICK #93:

WR Marvin Jones (California) 6'2" 199 4.46 -- Ranked 95

WR Juron Criner (Arizona) 6'3" 224 4.68 -- Ranked 93

TE Ladarius Green (Louisiana Lafayette) 6'6" 238 4.53 -- Ranked 98

OG Brand on Brooks (Miami OH) 6'5" 353 5.32 -- Ranked 113

RB Chris Polk (Washington) 5'11" 215 4.48 -- Ranked 87

RB Robert Turbin (Utah State) 5'10" 222 4.50 -- Ranked 99

CB Chase Minnifield (Virginia) 5'10" 183 4.49e -- Ranked 90

CB Josh Robinson (Central Florida) 5'10" 195 4.33 -- Ranked 94 (but likely to drop to round 2 very soon)

CB Jamell Fleming (Oklahoma) 5'11" 206 4.53 -- Ranked 92

FS Markelle Martin (Olkahoma State) 6'1" 207 4.47 -- Ranked 88

DE Tyrone Crawford (Boise State) 6'4" 275 4.89 -- Ranked 102

Once again, it's doubtful that either RB Chris Polk or FS Markelle Martin will be available here, but if they are, the Niners have to consider them. However, if they've selected WR Hill at #30 and OG Silatolu at #62, the CB position is the next biggest need; therefore, I think that the Niners go for the best CB still on the board, likely to be one of the three guys that I have highlighted. Unfortunately, Polk and Turbin are really the last two viable running back prospects on the board ... everybody after them is just a shot in the dark.

I hope that this will be the last of the possible confusions. What happens if the Niners took OG Zeitler at #30 and a CB (Johnson or Bentley) at #62? Or, what happens if they took CB Gilmore at #30 and OG Silatolu at #62? Oh ... you mean that in those cases we don't have a WR yet? We select either Marvin Jones (California) or Juron Criner (Arizona), whichever is preferred. Or, there is the possibility of taking another 6'6" tight end (Ladarius Green) who has 4.53 speed! If I'm making the pick, it's Marvin Jones.

ROUND 4 / PICK #127:

OG Jeff Allen (Illinois) 6'4" 307 5.28 -- Ranked 120

FS Trent Robinson (Michigan State) 5'10" 195 4.52 -- Ranked 128

DT/DE Brett Roy (Nevada) 6'3" 275 5.07 -- Ranked 136

DE Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 6'5" 295 5.01 -- Ranked 144

Most of you will probably say that the choice here is obvious ... FS Trent Robinson. But I don't think so for two reasons. First, there is a small-school safety who will be available in the 6th round who is much bigger than Robinson, and as fast if not faster; many scouts seem to think that he has great upside potential ... certainly worth a flier in the 6th round. Second, I really like Wolfe and I think the Niners do too ... he's got a mean streak, has a non-stop motor, and is very fast for his size; I would love to see Jusstin Smith have an opportunity to school this guy.

ROUND 5 / PICK #165:

WR Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) 6'4" 223 4.53 -- Ranked 181

DE Malik Jackson (Tennessee) 6'5" 284 4.91 -- Ranked 161

NT Akiem Hicks (Regina)6'5" 318 5.23 -- Ranked 200

Given our needs, there are not a lot of good prospects that fit with our 5th round pick ... we've already selected a WR and a DE. I'm well aware of the fact that Baalke just doesn't reach, but in this case, I really think that it makes sense because there are two 6th-round picks that make sense ... Hicks and SS Kelcie McCray. So, I hope that the Niners will bite the bullet and reach a full round to pick Hicks here before some other team grabs him. Hicks is raw, but he has a lot of upside potential ... after watching some tape (tough to find on this guy) I have little doubt that he has much more upside than RJF or Ian Williams when Soap is ready to pack it in.

ROUND 6 / PICK #199:

QB Kellen Moore (Boise State)6'0" 197 4.94 -- Ranked 223

NT Akiem Hicks (Regina) 6'5" 318 5.23 -- Ranked 200 (Expected selection in Round 5 -- see above)

OLB Jacquies Smith (Missouri)6'3" 253 4.81 -- Ranked 198

SS Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State) 6'2" 202 4.54 -- Ranked 218

Kelcie McCray? Yeah, interesting kid. As captain of his high school team he played quarterback, running back and safety. In four years at Arkansas State he played in every game and started at safety in every game of his final three years. In a class of strong safeties that includes Mark Barron, Harrison Smith and Antonio Allen, McCray is rated the #7 SS in the country and also the fastest. Although largely unknown, some scouts are on him and I think that he would be a hell of a pick. I do think that the Niners will look at Aldon Smith's buddy Jacquies Smith as a possible selection here, but he is a bit undersized, slow, and has a reputation of being an under-performer. Pass.

ROUND 7 / PICK #238:

OG Antoine McClain (Clemson) 6'5" 329 5.57 -- Ranked 263

RB Lennon Creer (Tennessee/Louisiana Tech) 6'0" 222 4.70 -- Ranked 228

FS Christian Thompson (South Carolina State) 6'0" 211 4.50 -- Ranked 237

SS Sean Richardson (Vanderbilt) 6'2" 216 4.52 -- Ranked 297

The most noted guy here is probably Christian Thompson; a number of scouts seemed to have jumped on his bandwagon. I like him, but even with losing Reggie Smith and Madieu Williams, we already have a stable of safeties ... Goldson, Whitner, Spillman, Colin Jones, Mark LeGree, and Kelcie McCray (if we draft him). Instead, I think that the Niners take a shot at replacing Anthony Dixon at the #3 running back position. Even though he has fought through a lot of injuries, Lennon Creer is a good all-around RB ... good bulk, football fast (faster on tape than timed 40), tough downhill runner, good pass receiver, seperates well, and does a pretty good job in pass protection. Played two years at Tennessee but transferred to Louisiana Tech when Lane Kiffen replaced Fullmer as HC. Even though hobbled some by a foot injury, played well in the Senior Bowl and was named offensive MVP of the East West Shrine Game. Worth a seventh round pick.

Well, there you have it ... what I think the Niners will do in April. So ... how'd they do? WR -- check; OG -- check; RB -- check; CB -- check; S -- check; DE -- check; NT -- check; OLB -- oops!! Well ... maybe free agency or next year's draft. Actually, next year's OLB class is a really good one!

Now that all the franchise tags have been doled out and some potential free agents have been re-signed by their present teams, we have a much better idea of who is really available to be signed by a new team when the free agency circus starts next Tuesday ... unless of course they also re-sign with their present clubs between now and then. I know that a lot of folks are excited about the Niners potentially landing one or two big-name guys. However, I believe that the Niners have learned their lesson from the years of "cap hell" pain endured because of their past cap-management mistakes ... killing the team's future by signing big-dollar and back-loaded contracts for present gratification. And believe me, it was painful. Fortunately Baalke certainly demonstrated his understanding of that lesson in his free agent actions last year. In light of that, let's examine the roster of probable free agents and see who makes sense and who doesn't.

WIDE RECEIVERS (our biggest need):

Who's out? Vince Jackson (San Diego), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) -- just too costly!!

Who's in? Marques Colston (New Orleans), Robert Meachem (New Orleans), Mario Manningham (Giants), Pierre Garcon (Indy)

OFFENSIVE GUARDS (a starter to replace Snyder/Rachal):

Who's out? Carl Nicks (New Orleans), Ben Grubbs (Baltimore) -- once again, just too costly!

Who's in? Evan Mathis (Philadelphia), Jeremy Zuttah (Tampa Bay), Adam Snyder (San Francisco)

Surprise -- did you know that Snyder (probably because of his versatility) is ranked as the 17th best free agent on the market?

Damn, damn, damn -- Zuttah was my "surprise" free agent signee for the Niners as our new starting RG, but Tampa Bay just signed him to a four-year extension.

CORNERBACK (presumably to replace Carlos Rogers, if he goes elsewhere):

Who's out? Cortland Finnegan (Tennessee), Brandon Carr (Kansas City)

Who's in? Tracy Porter (New Orleans) ... hey, I'm liking this sticking it to the Saints!

RUNNING BACK (if we're considering drafting a RB to ultimately replace Frank and improve over Dixon, how about considering a free agent for now and drafting a RB from the outstanding 2013 draft class of RBs?):

Who's out? You pick some ... there are a bunch of them

Who's in? Mike Tolbert (San Diego), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England), Michael Bush (Oakland)

PASS-RUSHER (DE or OLB ... it ddoesn't matter which):

Who's out? How about Mario Williams (Houston) -- too costly -- and John Abraham (Atlanta) -- too old?

Well, that's enough for now. Obviously this roster of potential Niners via free agency is fun to consider. Who do you think should be added to our team?

Fooch's Note: We've been getting some really great FanPosts over the past couple weeks with people breaking down the 49ers draft needs via mock drafts. We can't move all of them to the front page, but I wanted to start moving some of them the front page on a more regular basis to showcase the interesting content, and also because there is some great conversation to be had.
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Just spent some time reading through fpsoft's post and then Fooch's post about free agent wide receivers. I'll admit that I've just had a couple (honestly) of gin gimlets, so you guys have got me going. Accordingly, let's see what you think about this old guy's mock draft.

As a prelude, let me just say that a couple of weeks ago I published my pre-Combine "radical get-better plan" ... the groups' reaction: face-plant!! It would seem that nobody (but me) would even consider making a play to acquire the draft rights to Andrew Luck. Clearly, as a group, we are not risk-takers; I have ALWAYS been a risk-taker and, fortunately, have benefitted significantly because of it. I still think that that strategy is at least worth a shot (kind of a "nothing ventured, nothing gained" philosophy); but, as a pragmatist, I concede that I can't sell that here.

So ... let me try once again. This time I'll offer just a conservative improvement plan ... not quite plain vanilla, but close. First, let's get a few assumptions our of the way:

Continue reading this post »

On Monday smileyman posted an article entitled "49ers 2012 Free Agency Review: QBs" which included a poll asking how important it was for the Niners to upgrade at the QB position. I commented that I was surprised by the early poll results which indicated that most of us seemed pretty comfortable with Alex as our continuing starter. Why surprised? It seems to me that if you're a serious fan and you want your team positioned to complete in the Super Bowl every year that you would understand that that can only happen on a consistent basis if you have a grade-A player at the single most important position on the team ... regardless of what Mike Singletary thinks. But in the poll most seemed to find having a grade-B quarterback was satisfactory. Maybe I'm spoiled by having lived through the five Super Bowl and other winning seasons, but I am NOT satisfied. Let me be clear. I like Alex, have great respect and admiration for his ability to persevere all of the termoil that the Niners have put him through, and I think that he's competent to a point. But the fact is that he's a "B", and what's more IMO, will never be more than an "B" ... he may get a little bit better, but will never be an "elite" grade-A QB in the NFL. I'm not throwing rocks ... it's just a fact. So what the hell do I expect? Simple ... I want a grade-A quarterback. Who are they? In my book there are currently four (one on IR) grade-A QBs in the NFL: Brady, Brees, Payton (IR) and Rodgers. Whoa! But what about Bradford, Cutler, Freeman, Flacco, Gabbard, Eli, Newton, Palmer, Ponder, Rivers, Roethisberger, Ryan, Sanchez, Alex, Stafford and Vick ... they're all first-round draft picks? Very true ... but they're all also "B's" or "C's" in my book. A different performance standard? Maybe.

In response to my comment about the poll, Dan Peterson asked the question "who is available that is a better option than Alex?" A very good question. And, although it won't be popular among the readership, here is my somewhat elongated answer:

First, grade-A quarterbacks don't grow on trees, they aren't born knowing how, they are DEVELOPED ... none of them came out of college being an A; however, it is my belief that you cannot develop an A unless the individual has been born with that potential. And, that birthright is very rare; you either have it, or you don't ... wanting it badly and working hard to get there (see Smith, Alex) will certainly enable one to improve, but, if you're not born with the special potential, you just won't get there. You have to be born not only with the physical attributes including a far-better-than-average throwing arm, the eyes to see what others don't, the mental capacity to absorb the nuances of the game and be able to exploit them, the fortitude and guts to continue to push when there's no energy left, and the downright love of the game that enables you "do it" regardless of the pressures and conditions, and the ability to enspire others to do the same. But it's more than all that ... these guys are "different". A very few guys have it "all". Some guys have all the physical attibutes but not the mental capacity to be an "A" (Jay Cutler and Cam Newton are examples). Other guys have the mental makeup but lack the physical prowess to get there (Kellen Moore is a perfect example). We're talking about the few guys who have ALL of the necessary potential. So how do you identify these guys with the "right" raw material to be developed? Ah ... the billion dollar question. Honestly, I'm not sure that anybody can define "it" precisely ... most football people describe it as "unique talent", whatever that is. What I do know is (1) it's very rare, and (2) when you see "it" you know it. Since it's so rare, scouts have to gamble that a particular guy MAY have "it" when they draft him ... and usually end up with a Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez. But once in a great while a guy comes along and, after studying him thoroughly, you know ... he's got "it." And, when you have a chance to get one of those, do whatever it takes to get him because the next such guy could be a LONG way off. Understand, they have to be drafted, not signed as a free agent, because once a team has one there is only one way that they will trade or release him and that is if there is a huge risk that the player may not be able to recover from a serious injury (examples are Drew Brees and now Peyton Manning). If you want a grade-B or grade-C QB via free agency, that's doable but at a steep price. A grade-A? NFW!

I've watched thousands of professional and collegiate football games in the last six decades. At the professional level I have seen fewer that two dozen guys that I would classify as grade-A ... that group includes the four guys mentioned above plus Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkington, John Brodie, Roger Staubach, Warren Moon, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Steve Young and John Elway. The guys not still playing have three things in common: (1) each was an A, (2) they personally made a difference in every game they ever played in, regardless of the supporting cast, and (3) they are all in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I've had the great pleasure to watch most of the collegiate games played by three guys who I KNEW would become pro-level A's BEFORE they played their first professional game: John Brodie, John Elway ... and Andrew Luck. I feel the same way about Luck that I felt about Brodie and Elway ... Luck is the ONLY collegiate QB that I've seen in the last twenty years that comes anywhere close to Elway as a collegian. Trust me guys ... every scouting report that I've read and every scouting service has Luck graded at their highest possible evaluation. These guys are NOT all wrong. Trust me again ... Luck will be an A within two years IF he doesn't get drafted by a team that can't give him the proper system, continued good coaching, and adequate protection so that he doesn't get maimed in the process. IMO Indy can't offer any of those things ... and his talent could be wasted, as Peyton's was in the early years. That is why I believe that the biggest single thing the Niners can possibly do to improve the team is to do whatever it takes to get the draft rights to Andrew Luck. And, I think that we are in a position to do that. Indy's roster is in shambles ... they need decent starting players, not draft choices to select unproven rookies. I would be willing to trade as many as a dozen players to get the #1 pick from Indy ... but I don't think that it will take THAT many. Accordingly, I would protect only 17 guys as being untouchable in such a trade: Akers, Bowman, Culliver, Vernon Davis, Hunter, Iupati, Jennings, Lee, Miller, Morgan, Rogers, Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Snyder, Sopoaga, Whitner and Willis. In my book, anybody else is "available" (yes, including Alex). You would be willing to blow up a playoff team roster to get one prospect? Yep. Because most of those guys can be replaced with relative ease. A grade-A quarterback? Not so much ... if there is any single lesson that we should have learned during the past ten plus years of quarterback roulette it's that A's are rare and they're not easy to get. When you get the chance to get one, you must go for it.

For the Niners, this season is over ... and what a season it was! Did any of us expect them to finish the regular season at 13-3, and then advance through the divisional round to the NFC Championship Game? I dare say that this season exceeded the expectations of even the most optomistic of us. Fantastic!!

Unfortunately we fell short of the goal. So how does the team improve from here? In the big picture, the answer seems pretty obvious ... the offense needs to be developed to achieve the same level of performance as the defense and special teams. Primarily the offense needs to become far more consistent, avoid so many third-and-longs, and avoid the apparent brain-cramps in the red zone play-calling. Gee, that was easy ... except just exactly how do you do that? Or, as Harbaugh would put it ... how do we get better next season? So now let's look forward toward next season ... to re-signing our own free agents, perhaps to signing free agents from other teams, and finally, to selecting prospects in the April draft. Using the theme "how do we get better?", I began the process by assessing the 2011 performance of each member of the roster, and came up with these questions:

QUARTERBACK I have great respect and admiration for Alex Smith as a person and am extremely happy for him -- and us -- that he improved his on-field performance this season with the coaching of Harbaugh, Roman and Chryst. But has he now reached his peak? Has he, or will he ever, achieved the status of "franchise QB" that this team really hoped for when he was chosen as the #1 draft pick? Can we win multiple Super Bowls with Alex at QB? If we really had a chance to reunite Andrew Luck with Jim Harbaugh, would we draft him? What would it take to get Luck's draft rights?

LEFT OFFENSIVE TACKLE Joe Staley has been a very good LOT for us ... not elite, but very good. But, although he made the Pro Bowl this year, that may be more the result of the team's success than Joe's outstanding play. I can't help feeling that there is no remaining upside with Joe, and he seems to be more injury-prone as the years pass. Could we do better?

RIGHT OFFENSIVE TACKLE / GUARD After a valiant two-year effort, it is not obvious that Anthony Davis will ever be an elite right tackle. He's very good at run blocking but just doesn't have a fast enough slide step to deal with good outside speed rushers ... and while he's improved substantially in other areas, he hasn't improved much with the slide step, if at all. What to do? Give him more time since he's young? How about relieving him from the job of blocking edge rushers and moving him to right guard to take more advantage of his run-blocking skills?

OFFENSIVE CENTER Given that Jonathan Goodwin is a former Pro Bowler, I was actually somewhat disappointed in his early season performance. Fortunately he improved his play significantly as the season progressed. But, how much gas does he have left in the tank? There is absolutely no question that Chase Beeler has the smarts to be a starting NFL center ... the question seems to be whether he can bulk up enough to handle the job physically. I wonder what progress he has made with a year on the PS?

WIDE RECEIVER What about Michael Crabtree and Ted Ginn? Certainly Crabtree has a lot of talent, but for his skill level he seems to drop or miss more than his fair share of passes. Jerry Rice had the same problem during his rookie year, so maybe Crabs just needs more time. More concerning to me is Crabtree's frequent inability to get open. Not a good combination ... inability to get open and dropping passes when you do. Thus, I'm now convinced that Crabtree simply will never be a #1 receiver in the NFL. Being a #1 requires at least one outstanding trait -- size, speed or route-running -- IN ADDITION to great hands. Crabs has the hands but none of the rest. The good news is that he could be a very good #2, a possession guy, if we had a real #1 receiver to absorb more of the defense's coverages.

As to Ginn, I love the guy as a returner and that really is the basis of his making the Pro Bowl this year. He has improved his receiving skills a bit, but his playing time at WR seems more a result of the limited capabilities of the rest of the receiving corps, especially after Morgan's injury, than his own skills at this position. If we added one or two elite WRs via FA signings and/or the draft, would Ginn still be able to compete as a regular WR?

And speaking of wide receivers ... have you looked at the WR rosters of the playoff teams? Interestingly, for eight of the twelve playoff teams their #1 wide receiver is 6'3" or taller, which includes the really big, dominant guys -- Jimmy Graham at 6'7", Calvin Johnson at 6'5", Andre Johnson, Marques Colston and A.J. Green at 6'4", Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas at 6'3" and so on. Two of the playoff teams have receiving corps with averaage height of 6'1", and the remaining two teams' receivers top out at an average of only 6'0". Want to guess who "the little guys" play for? The Patriots and the Niners and the Patriots would be the bigger of the two if it weren't for 5'9" Wes Welker! What's my point? We need to give our QBs some bigger targets to throw to if we want to dominate offensively!

CORNERBACK And what about Tarell Brown? Yeah, I realize that he was a starter at CB for most of the year, and his play has improved, but he is the weak link in the defensive backfield. I believe that we can do better ... either with Chris Culliver taking over as he develops or perhaps drafting a first-round CB prospect, since there will be some good ones available in April.

SAFETY In thinking about the Niners' draft needs, what about Reggie Smith's ability to take over if we lose Dashon Goldson to someone offering a bigger contract? Reggie seems to play pretty well ... when he plays. But he also seems to be injured a lot. Is he really a longer-term solution?

After thinking about the players in these positions, I actually came up with two alternative improvement plans ... one more traditional and conservative (focusing on fixes here and there) and the other a lot more radical. I'll post my conservative "normal" approach later, but for now, let's get radical!! Why? Because it's always fun to think outside the box. So, here goes:

THE RADICAL PLAN -- OBJECTIVE AND RESEARCH

I have supported Alex Smith wholeheartedly since the day that he was drafted. And, he has been screwed over many times by this franchise, only to come back and prove everyone wrong. An incredible human being ... I have the very highest respect and regard for him. But this is not about Alex Smith ... it's about what's best for the San Francisco Forty Niners. Can we find a way to upgrade the performance level at the quarterback position? For the sake of once again having a Montana-/Young-/Rodgers-/Brees-type franchise quarterback, I want Andrew Luck as a Forty Niner! And, I'm going to figure out how to get him! Period!

Regardless of who selects him, Andrew Luck will be the #1 pick in the April draft. At first, it looked like the Indy Colts were a shoe-in to get that first pick; but then winning two games jeopardized their likelihood. Fortunately for the Niners, Indy finally managed not to screw it up, and nailed down first-pick rights. (I say "fortunately" because it's much more difficult to make trades within your own division; if the Rams had the #1 pick, even if they were to decide to trade it, it's highly unlikely that they would even consider a trade with us.)

Part of my reasoning behind this post had to do with the opinions and philosophy of Bill Polian, former Colts' Vice Chairman, father of the GM, and general personnel guru, about playing rookies -- he avoided it unless absolutely necessary. After this season's disaster, Colts' owner Jim Irsay said that he felt that it was time for a "new era" in Indy; accordingly, he terminated both Polians and wanted to "start over" by hiring a more consensus-building, press-friendly GM than Bill, who was notably authoritarian and prickly with the Indy press. On January 11th, Irsay announced the hiring of Ryan Grigson as the Colts' new GM ... very surprising. Grigson just completed his first year as the Eagles' Director of Player Personnel after spending less than four years as the Eagles' Director of College Scouting. This guy is an incredible lightweight as compared to either of the Polians. Plus, Irsay says that he will make the call as to whether Manning returns to Indy AND that he probably will also make the decision on the #1 draft pick. Welcome to your new job, Ryan ... you're in charge ... uh, sometimes and regarding some issues!

The big unknown now is how much of Polian's personnel views (after running the team for 12 years) have become institutionalized ... including with Irsay. It's obvious that "starting over" includes a new GM and a new HC, but does it include playing a lot of rookies, a concept that Polian would resist? And, given Manning's apparently slow recovery from surgery and the concern about his being able to return at 100% next season, will Irsay be willing to pay Manning's monumental $28-million roster bonus next spring? Do they gamble ... pay and keep Manning, hoping that he can start? Restructure his contract? But why would Manning be willing to do that? Trade him? Beyond that, would Luck be willing to sit on the bench until Manning retires? These are all tough decisions with big-dollar consequences ... and all to be decided by this less-than-highly-experienced prospect-evaluation "brain-trust."

With the regular season concluded and the draft season coming up, the talking heads have begun debating what the new Colts' leadership should do with their #1 pick. The most obvious choice is to draft Andrew Luck, but most pundits seem to believe that Indy "has significant needs at so many positions" that they should consider trading down from #1 and pick up as many additional draft picks as possible. And, it may get even worse. Paul Kuharsky (ESPN columnist) says that Indy's roster needs may be getting even more complicated by the probable retirement of veteran C Jeff Saturday, and the free agent departures of WR Reggie Wayne and DE Robert Mathis. Wow! They will have a new GM, a new HC, they don't know who their starting QB will be (but certainly NOT Orlovsky or Painter), AND, for players, they "need almost everything." Other than that, no problem!

Actually, Indy does have some good young players ... but not nearly enough to make serious progress next season just by adding rookies, especially just at QB. They need additional young experienced players to build around. Since the Colts apparently "need everything", let's get specific and determine what "everything" really means. As most of you know, after each season and in preparation for the NFL draft each year, Draft Tek puts together a chart of each team's ranked draft needs. They rank needs from 1 (critical) to 9 (no need). Draft Tek uploads this table as well as a forecasted final list of expected drafting order of teams to their computers, then run that against their data base of ranked prospects by position. The output, of course, is Draft Tek's 7-round mock draft, updated as input data changes. Here is Draft Tek's opinion of Indy's draft needs as of the end of the regular season:

Priority 1: No positions listed

Priority 2: CB

Priority 3: LOT, ROT, OG, OC, DT

Priority 4: QB, WR, DE, OLB, FS

(Parenthetically, before Kuharsky's comment about the probable retirement of Saturday and departure of Wayne and Mathis, I had checked Draft Tek's draft priorities for Indy. At that time, they had listed LOT, QB, DT and CB as Priority 2 needs, and ROT, OG, WR, SS, OLB, DE and FS as Priority 4. Not really major changes, just reducing the QB priority with the idea that Manning MAY be back and adding OC as a bigger need after Saturday's retirement. With this many needs, the specific priorities are somewhat irrelavant.)

My God! Indy's needs are massive! Yet more complications: (1) there is mention that the Colts would like to add improved KO and punt return capability; (2) the Polian-led Colts drafted Anthony Castonzo last year and played him at LOT, but have now concluded that he would be much better at ROT ... hence the high draft priority on a LOT; and, they drafted Ben Ijilana last year and tried to play him at ROT. He is currently on IR, but they seem to have concluded that he would be better at OG; thus, the need for a new ROT.

Finally, Michael Lombardi (NFL Network), I guy who seems to be pretty well plugged in to what is REALLY happening in the NFL, has two comments: (1) "Peyton Manning will be a Colt; he will not be traded"; (2) Indy needs a "complete overhaul" of their roster.

THE RADICAL PLAN -- SCHEMING

If you think like I do, you realize that in termoil there is opportunity. All of Indy's issues and the comments about them start whirling around in your brain ... and eventually a possible scenario emerges. In a nutshell, here is my conclusion: We may have happened upon a "perfect storm" of circumstances which could (1) provide us with a 12-15-year, elite-level franchise quarterback who some say MAY be one of the best prospects to come out in the last 20-25 years, (2) upgrade the team at certain other positions which will help us get better yet, and (3) do so without really decimating our current roster or available April draft picks.

Here's the scheme. First, we sign Alex Smith, Ted Ginn, Reggie Smith and Chilo Rachal (bear with me) to contract extensions. Then, we offer Indy a package of SEVEN young veteran players (i.e., NOT has-beens or draft choices), most of whom are or have been starters, some Pro-Bowlers, in exchange of Indy's #1 and #3 2012 draft picks. This package of players to include:

1. Choice of QB Alex Smith (Round 1 - 2005) or QB Colin Kaepernick (Round 2 - 2011)

2. WR/KR/PR Ted Ginn (Round 1 - 2007)

3. LOT Joe Staley (Round 1 - 2007)

4. OG Chilo Rachal (Round 2 - 2008)

5. FS/SS Reggie Smith (Round 3 - 2008)

6. Choice of CB Tarell Brown (Round 5 - 2007) or CB Shawntae Spencer (Round 2 - 2004)

7. Choice of DT Rickey Jean-Francois (Round 7 - 2009) or DT Ian Williams (Free Agent - 2011).

IF Indy believes that Manning can't/won't return or will be traded, they can select Alex Smith as an immediate starter. On the other hand, if they believe that Manning will return, they can select Kaepernick as a substantial upgrade as Manning's backup now (over Orlovsky or Painter) and heir apparent when Manning retires. Ginn would replace Reggie Wayne and serve as returner, which they really don't have now. Staley would take over LOT for Costanzo, who would move to ROT. Rachal would join Ijilana as the starting OGs. The rest of the trade package offers experienced veterans as additional needed starters. Indy could rebuild using experienced, young NFL veterans rather than unknown rookie draft choices (with possible results like Costanzo and Ijilana), so this could be a very attractive offer. Also, guys like Alex Smith, Joe Staley and Ted Ginn would replace the senior leadership in the Indy locker room that will be lost with the absence of Saturday, Wayne and Mathis.

Finally, while teams sometimes avoid player trades for fear that the players involved may come back to bite them, being outside the division and even outside the conference, this trade would be comforting to the Niners and inconsequential to the Colts.

WAIT A MINUTE!! HOLD IT!! YOU WANT TO BLOW UP A CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF TEAM? ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY NUTS? Well ... I don't think that I'm nuts and here's why I'm willing to do the deal: I am not interested in having a team that goes one-and-out, two-and-out, or even three-and-out. The goal is to build a team that will consistently play in the Super Bowl, every year. Probably the best comparison is the New England Patriots during the Brady years. THIS PLAN , I believe, is how to do just that!

Wow! That's a gutsy call ... so how do the Niners come out of this deal giving up so many players? Actually, not badly at all. Here's how:

1. We move Anthony Davis from RT to starting RG.

2. We move Alex Boone from swing tackle to starting RT.

3. We get Drevno and Solari immediately working with Davis and Boone at their new positions in the off season.

4. We move Adam Snyder from RG to swing tackle/guard/center; or, Snyder could replace Goodwin at center if he would be considered an upgrade.

5. We promote either Kilgore, Person, Hall or Beeler as backups from the Practice Squad.

FILLING REMAINING NEEDS -- THE DRAFT

Obviously prospect ratings and rankings will change between now and the April draft as we move through the Senior Bowl this week and the Combine next month. So, the ranking and rating data below reflects current data as of January 24th, but will change. IF draft selections were being made TODAY, what follows would be my picks, but they will most assuredly change before the actual draft. Notice that my suggested trade package does NOT include trading our first round draft pick. Thus, my suggested draft actions are:

Round 1 -- Pick #1 (from Indy):

QB ANDREW LUCK (Stanford) 6'4" 235 4.72 Grade* 99 / Rating* 9.0 / C Rank* 1 / A Rank* 1

Replaces either Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick

Round 1 -- Pick #30 (own pick):

LOT ZEBRIE SANDERS (Florida State) 6'5" 307 5.25 Grade* 87 / Rating* 6.6B / C Rank* 39 / A Rank* 42

Alternative selection:

LOT MIKE ADAMS (Ohio State) 6'7" 320 5.28 Grade* 83 / Rating* 6.9C / C Rank* 35 / A Rank* 28

Replaces Joe Staley

Round 2 -- Pick #62 (own pick):

Select from:

WR DWIGHT JONES (North Carolina) 6'4" 225 4.53 Grade* 76 / Rating* 6.9D / C Rank* 62 / A Rank*58

WR BRIAN QUICK (Appalachian State) 6'4" 216 4.63 Grade* 78 / Rating* 6.1 / C Rank* 69 / A Rank* 114

WR STEPHEN HILL (Georgia Tech) 6'5" 200 4.57 Not graded@ / Not rated@ / C Rank* 104 / A Rank* 80

Replaces Ted Ginn at WR and eventually becomes #1WR (with Crabtree moving to proper #2WR)

Round 3 -- Pick #64 (from Indy):

Note: Minnifield & Gilmore will likely already been selected; if not, pick one; otherwise, pick Johnson

CB CHASE MINNIFIELD (Virginia) 6'0" 185 4.49 Grade* 82 / Rating* 6.5B / C Rank* 49 / A Rank* 45

CB STEPHEN GILMORE (South Carolina) 6'1" 193 4.52 Grade* 78 / Rating* 6.9J / C Rank* 34 / A Rank* 40

CB TRUMAINE JOHNSON (Montana) 6'2" 204 4.52 Grade* 76 / Rating* 6.6C / C Rank* 73 / A Rank* 80

Chris Culliver replaces Tarell Brown / Shawntae Spencer; Minnifield/Gilmore/Johnson replaces Culliver

Round 4 -- Pick #94 (own pick):

TE LADARIUS GREEN (LA -- Lafayette) 6'6" 236 4.64 Grade* 68 / Rating* 6.1D / C Rank* 108 / A Rank* 110

Note: For those who don't know of Green, think Coby Fleener but faster and less polished; obviously I would prefer Fleener, but he will go early-mid second round

Replaces Justin Peelle as #3 (receiving) TE while Nate Byham returns as #4 (blocking) TE

Round 4 -- Pick #126:

FS/SS GEORGE ILOKA (Boise State) 6'3" 220 4.50 Grade* 67 / Rating* 6.4 / C Rank* 108 / A Rank* 126

Replaces Reggie Smith

Round 5 -- Pick #158:

OG BRANDON BROOKS (Miami OH) 6'5" 353 5.32 Grade* 66 / Rating* 6.8D / C Rank* 206 / A Rank* 258

Note: The rankings for Brooks vary widely; I have selected him here, even though his C Rank* is 206, because some draft services have him ranked as high as 120; I believe that he will be drafted before the 6th round.

Replaces Chilo Rachal

Round 6 -- Pick #190:

DE JACK CRAWFORD (Penn State) 6'5" 267 4.79 Grade* 68 / Rating* 5.9U / C Rank* 200 / A Rank* 182

Added depth at DE

Round 7 -- Pick #222:

DT DEREK WOLFE (Cincinnati) 6'5" 300 5.16 Grade* 30 / Rating* 5.8 / C Rank* 204 / A Rank* 197

Replaces Ricky Jean-Francois or Ian Williams

* EXPLANATION OF GRADES, RATINGS AND RANKINGS:

Grade = Assigned by ESPN Scouts Inc. -- scale is 30 to 100, where 100 is highest possible grade.

Rating = Assigned by National Football Post (Wes Bunting) -- scale is 5.0 to 9.0, where 9.0 is highest possible rating.

C Rank = conservative ranking -- it is the mean of the prospect's expected selection spot as assigned by (1) New Era Scouting, and (2) NFL Draft Scout services as of January 23rd.

A Rank = overall ranking -- it is the mean of the prospect's expected selection spot as assigned by (1) New Era Scouting, (2) NFL Draft Scout and (3) Draft Tek services as of January 23rd. Draft Tek re-ranks a data base of more than 500 prospects weekly; as a consequence, their ranking for any given prospect can vary almost wildly, and sometimes inconsistently, from week to week; therefore, I don't pay too much attention to their rankings until after the Combine and shortly before the Draft.

@ = Stephen Hill is a Junior and just recently declared for the 2012 NFL Draft; accordingly, he has not yet been graded or rated by the respective services

.

REASONING BEHIND DRAFT SELECTIONS

There are three potential positional needs which might have been addressed in this draft (RB, OLB and NT) but were not, deliberately. First, the running back position. If we evaluate Frank Gore's career in the form of the classic bell-shaped curve, it's obvious that he's past his peak ... closer to the end of his career than the beginning. So, we need to start thinking about his ultimate replacement. But what about Hunter and Dixon? IMHO neither one is the right guy to become Frank's replacement. I love Kendall Hunter as a COPRB but he is simply not built to take the physical beating required of an every-down NFL running back; he has a long career ahead with the Niners, but as a COPRB, not "the guy." Anthony Dixon is a good (but not great) "banger" but has not shown all the skills needed to be "the guy." I considered selecting the RBOTF this year but there were only two prospects that really turned me on -- Trent Richardson (Alabama) and Chris Polk (Washington) -- but, given our critical needs after the proposed trade, we simply couldn't select a RB high enough to get either one. We probably could get Bernard Pierce (Temple) at selection #94 but he really is a second-tier guy who lacks speed ... so I passed. Why? While this draft is the year of the WR, next year (2013) may be the year of the RB. It's too early to evaluate the entire potential list of candidtes, but it will include Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), Knile Davis (Arkansas), Eddie Lacy (Alabama), Spencer Ware (LSU), Cierre Wood (Notre Dame) and so on, a much deeper group to select from ... so let's wait a year and hope that Frank can stay healthy.

Now, why not additions at the linebacker positions? Basically, same reasoning. There are some guys that we could consider this year, but next year's crop for the most part will be better. Think Brandon Jenkins (Florida State), Jarvis Jones (Georgia), Devin Taylor (South Carolina), Chase Thomas and Shayne Skov (Stanford), and again, on and on. Let's wait and load up next year. Or, we could consider the free agent market IF the "right guy" was available.

As for nose tackle, there will be more quality NT prospects in the 2013 draft available to us than this year. Some of those prospects include Kwame Geathers (Georgia), Sylvester Williams (North Carolina), Baker Steinkuhler (Nebraska) and Jesse Williams (Alabama).

THE RADICAL PLAN -- BOTTOM LINE

If for some reason the new Indy brain-trust is unwilling to do the deal as proposed, we could simply drop the request for their third round pick -- or maybe reduce our request to a lower-round pick or even all seven players just for the #1 pick. As a consequence, we would probably miss out on being able to draft BOTH a tall WR AND a tall TE to help in the Red Zone. Life's a bitch sometimes! Perhaps we look to the free agent marketplace to fill tthat gap.

So, what is the downside to this proposed "blockbuster" trade? Worst case, we might go backwards next year until Luck and Sanders / Adams adjust to NFL-level game speed, but I would expect Luck to play better for the Niners than for any other team because he's been playing Harbaugh's system for the past three years and has the existing rapport with Harbaugh/Roman. As for Zebrie Sanders / Mike Adams (versus Joe Staley), they will make rookie mistakes, but the rest of the vet OL will help them grow. As they develop I believe that either has far more upside than Joe Staley. We'd have to replace Ginn as the KO returner with Kendall Hunter, and Ginn as the punt returner with Kyle Williams (come on, give him a break), certainly an acceptable price. Losing the other players? Honestly, not that big a deal.

Harbaugh wants to have a power running game ... Sanders / Adams, Iupati, Goodwin (or Snyder), Davis and Boone. THIS is an OLine built for POWER ... average height 6'6"+ and average weight 320+. Oh, and by the way, having Andrew Luck throwing to the likes of Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green, Michael Crabtree, Joshua Morgan, Kyle Williams, and a future big #1 WR like Jones / Quick/ Hill wouldn't be all bad either.

When I first conjured up this idea, I thought that it was "interesting" but probably not achievable. Then, after knowing that the Colts had the #1 pick and the extent of their player needs, I thought that maybe we could package a deal that would be attractive to them. Now, the more that I think about this scheme the more I like it. It could give us huge upside for an extended period going forward, especially with some key additions at running back and linebacker in 2013. Would Irsay and Grigson go for this kind of trade? It would certainly be easier and faster for them to rebuild with young veteran players (Pro-Bowlers and starters) than with draft choices for rookies.

So there you have it ... the Radical Plan. I would love to have Harbaugh see this and hear his reaction! What do YOU think? If Indy wouldn't bite, what else would it take? Would Andrew Luck be worth that much? What are your thoughts about this big-picture plan going forward? Remember ... "if you're not getting better, you're moving backwards." Got better big plan? Please share it with us.

There is very little doubt that this will probably be a screwy year for all NFL teams ... no mini-camps, a delay in distributing playbooks to new players, a delay to the start of training camp and therefore shortened preparation for the season, an inability to sign free agents, etc., etc.  The situation is even more complex for the Niners since they have almost an entirely new coaching staff ... bringing new systems and different player expectations from anything in the recent past.  Further, it sounded like to me that Baalke / Harbaugh had a very different focus on the types of players that they wanted in this draft versus what was targeted by Singletary's decree last year.  Further, my guess is that Harbaugh and friends want to use the guys that they drafted this year, particularly on special teams, versus the generally poorly-coached prior backup players.  I would expect a big focus on teaching and real honest-to-God coaching.  Accordingly, I fully expect a significant turnover in the roster from last year.  What is "significant"?  I have put together my projected season-opening roster of 53 and I have 36% turnover on offense, 32% on defense, and 33% on special teams, for an overall 34% change in the roster from last year.

That's a BIG change.  So what are the components of such a change? 

1.  Just as all 2010 draftees made the team, I project that all of this year's draftees will also make it.

2.  I don't expect the Niners to be BIG players in the veteran free agent market, if and when a new CBA is consumated, but I do think that they will play ... I am hoping for two veteran free agent signings and one trade:

Cornerback:  Since we were unable to draft Patrick Peterson (who would have been a sure starter at CB), I hope that the Niners will seek TWO veteran corners in the free agent market.  I would love to sign Nnamdi Asomugha, but I think that he will just be too expensive.  Thus, I would take that money and try to sign BOTH Johnathan Joseph (Cincinnati Bengals) and Richard Marshall (Carolina Panthers) for our starting corners.

Quarterback:  Neither David Carr or Troy Smith are IMO worthy of the backup QB position ... we would be screwed if either one had to play for other than a few plays.  Colin Kaepernick will be the third QB and in learning mode for most of the year.  Therefore I think that we should put together a package of players and/or mid- to lower-round draft choices to trade to Tampa Bay in exchange for Josh Johnson.  Tampa was able to satisfy two of their four biggest needs (DE and TE) in the draft just concluded.  They still need help at ILB and OG.  How about a package of David Carr, Tony Wragge and Keaton Kristick for Johnson?

Next, as soon as the new CBA is done, I hope that the Niners will sign the following undrafted free agents:

1.  WR Terrance Tolliver (LSU) 6' 4"   212#  4.52 in the 40.

2.  WR Ricardo Lockette (Fort Valley State) 6' 2"  211#  4.34 in the 40.

3.  NT Blaine Sumner (Colorado School of Mines) 6' 2"  335#; 5.36 in the 40; 1.82 in the 10; 55 reps of 225#; 9' 5" broad jump -- this guy is undoubtedly the strongest of all prospects (including Paea) in this draft class.

4.  DE Marc Schiechl (Colorado School of  Mines) 6' 2"  252#; 4.67 in the 40; 1.66 in the 10; 38 reps of 225#; 10' 5" broad jump -- Division II football career record in sacks at 45.

5.  DE Brandon Bair (Oregon)  6' 6"  276#  4.92 in the 40; 1.75 in the 10; 26 reps of 225#; 9' 6" broad jump.

6.  K Fai Forbath (UCLA)  5' 11"  197#.

There certainly will be competition to sign these guys, but fortunately the Niners have met with each of them in private workouts and hopefully made an impression, at least enough to cause them to want to be a Niner.

So, given all that, here is my projected 2011 final season-opening roster:

 

Quarterbacks (3) --

Roster:  Alex Smith, Josh Johnson, Colin Kaepernick

Resign Alex Smith, trade for Josh Johnson.

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released (or traded):  David Carr, Troy Smith

67% turnover

Running Backs (3) --

Roster:  Frank Gore, Anthony Dixon, Kendall Hunter

Practice Squad:  Xavier Omon

Released:  Brian Westbrook

33% turnover

Fullback (1) --

Roster:  Bruce Miller

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  Moran Norris

100% turnover

Wide Receivers (6) --

Roster:  Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Dom Ziegler, Kyle Williams, Ronald Johnson, Terrance Tolliver

Practice Squad:  Kevin Jurovich, Lance Long

Released:  Ted Ginn, Jr.

33% turnover

Tight Ends (3) --

Roster:  Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Nate Byham

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  Colin Cloherty

0% turnover

Offensive Tackles (4) --

Roster:  Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Adam Snyder, Alex Boone

Practice Squad:  Chris Patrick

Released:  Barry Sims

25% turnover

Centers / Offensive Guards (5) --

Roster:  Mike Iupati, Chilo Rachal, David Baas, Dan Kilgore, Mike Person

Resign David Baas.

Practice Squad:  Nick Howell

Released (or traded):  Eric Heitmann (retired due to injury), Tony Wragge

40% turnover

TOTAL OFFENSE = 25 players, 9 new players (or 36%) on the offense.

Nose Tackles (2) --

Roster:  Aubrayo Frankin, Blaine Sumner

Resign Aubrayo Franklin.

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  Ricky Jean Francois

50% turnover

Defensive Ends (4) --

Roster:  Justin Smith, Issac Sopoaga, Will Tukuafu, Ray McDonald

Resign Ray McDonald.

Practice Squad:  Marc Schiechl, Brandon Bair

Released:  Demetric Evans

25% turnover

Inside Linebackers (4) --

Roster:  Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Scott McKillop, Takeo Spikes

Resign Takeo Spikes.

Practice Squad (if not traded):  Keaton Kristick

Released:  Alex Joseph

0% turnover

Outside Linebackers (5) --

Roster:  Ahmad Brooks, Parys Haralson, Thaddeus Gibson, Manny Lawson, Aldon Smith

Resign Manny Lawson.

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  Travis LaBoy

40% turnover

Cornerbacks (6) --

Roster:  Johnathan Joseph, Richard Marshall, Shawntae Spencer, Phillip Adams, Chris Culliver, Curtis Holcomb

Sign Johnathan Joseph and Richard Marshall as veteran free agents.

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  Nate Clements (assuming can't negotiate satisfactory salary cut), Tarell Brown (performance), Will James (age and injuries), Tramaine Brock (performance).

50% turnover excluding veteran free agent signings.

Safeties (4) --

Roster:  Reggie Smith, Taylor Mays, Dashon Goldson, Colin Jones

Resign Dashon Goldson.

Practice Squad:  Curtis Taylor

Released:  C J Spillman, Chris Maragos

25% turnover.

TOTAL DEFENSE = 25 players, 8 new players (or 32%) on the defense.

 

Kicker (1) --

Roster:  Fabrizio Scaccia OR Kai Forbath

Practice Squad:  Fabrizio Scaccia OR Kai Forbath

Released:  Joe Nedney (age and injury), Jeff Reed (pick a reason)

100% turnover.

Punter (1) --

Roster:  Andy Lee

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  nobody

0% turnover.

Long Snapper (1) --

Roster:  Brian Jennings

Practice Squad:  nobody

Released:  nobody

0% turnover.

TOTAL SPECIAL TEAMS = 3 players, 1 new player (or 33%) on special teams

ENTIRE ROSTER = 53 players. 18 new players (or 34%) on entire roster.

So, there it is ... my projected roster for opening day.  I fully realize that this is a pretty substantial year-to-year change, but it seems to me that it is warranted in light of recent disappointing performances.  Yes, there will be a lot of rookie mistakes, but it seems to me that with the level of improved coaching that all of these guys will get, and the probable improved performance that they will deliver during the 16-game schedule, it's well worth the investment.  Go Niners!!

 

 

 

As you guys know, I've been watching this process for sixty years ... I've been through incredible highs (most of the 1980s drafts) and terribly depressing lows (almost all of the drafts sense then).  For the ten years leading up to last year's draft, with a few exceptions (Vernon Davis and Patrick Willis), the Niners draft has been a real downer.  After last year's draft I was somewhat encouraged that maybe we had turned the corner ... leaving the Donohue, Nolan, McCloughan fiascos behind us. 

After the first two days of the 2011 draft, I can't help but be terribly disappointed.  Maybe last year was just an accident (or the result of Singletary's strong personality), because what I've seen from Baalke / Harbaugh thus far has been feeling so-so (Aldon Smith), elated (Colin Kaepernick), and now depresses (Culliver).  As a form of therapy, let me share the thinking behind my feeliings.

Pick #7 -- Aldon Smith.  Not the best possible pick given the circumstances, but OK.  I would have preferred Prince or Quinn because they would have been less of a reach, but, well, OK; if the FO likes him I can certainly live with it.  The problem is that Smith is a reach of 12, which, in the first seven picks, is really pushing it IMO.

Pick #45/#36 -- Colin Kaepernick.  Absolutely love the pick; with all the teams drafting in the thirties and looking for a QB, I loved the fact that the FO made the trade to move up and get their guy.  However, I didn't like the specifics of the trade ... Baalke paid about a 5% premium to make the trade, which, in this case, is the equivalent of a 6th round pick; why throw in the 5th round pick (#141 ... where we could select Marecic) if you don't absolutely have to?  Was that the only way to make the deal?  Still, the selection was a real upper.

Pick #76/#80 -- Chris Culliver.  OMG!  What the hell are they thinking?  Are they even thinking? 

First, I loved the trade down to pick up another 6th round pick ... this trade was actually balanced and made sense.  Given where the board stood when the trade was made, I saw a number of possibilities for the use of the slightly lower pick. 

Then came the selection.  WTF?  This pick makes absolutely NO sense!  We don't know whether the guy's a safety or a corner; he has a history of injury/medical issues; he has mental limitations; again ... WTF?  Worse, when I look at the prospects still available when this pick was made I can't do anything but cringe.  OK, you want to go defense, here's who we could have had instead:  NT Kendrick Ellis (who was the right pick IMO), CBs Devon House, Brandon Burton, Johnny Patrick, Jalil Brown, or Curtis Marsh, or DE Greg Romeus.  Don't want defense?  OK, on offense, here's who we could have had instead:  RBs Kendall Hunter, Taiwan Jones, Quizz Rodgers, or Alex Green, or WRs Edmund Gates or Vince Brown, or OG Clint Boling.  This pick may have been worse than almost any that McClueless ever made. 

I absolutely hate feeling this way.  I really looked forward to this draft.  I certainly hope that Baalke can bail himself out tomorrow.

In several of our recent discussions about the need for a franchise QB, the quality level of this year's crop of QB prospects, "reaching" with a pick, etc., I have made the comment that maybe what we get this year is our longer-term backup QB (ala Steve Bono, for those of you who have been fans for a while) and get our "real" QBOTF in next year's draft.  Why do I say that?  Have you guys taken a look at what the list of QB prospects coming out next year looks like?  Here's a list of the top dozen or so prospects.  To reflect no bias, I'll simply list them in alphabetic order.

Matt Barkley (USC) 6' 2" 220#

John Brantley (Florida) 6' 3" 220#

Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 6' 3" 205#

Nick Foles (Arizona) 6' 5" 245#

Garrett Gilbert (Texas) 6' 4" 215#

Landry Jones (Oklahoma) 6' 4" 220#

Ryan Lindley (San Diego State) 6' 4" 218#

Andrew Luck (Stanford) 6' 4" 235#

Nate Montana (Montana) 6' 4" 215#  --  yes, he's Joe's oldest son.

Kellen Moore (Boise State) 6' 0" 190#

Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 6' 8" 245#

Terrelle Prior (Ohio State) 6' 6" 235#

Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) 6' 4" 220#

Darron Thomas (Oregon) 6' 3" 215#

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 6' 4" 220#

Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) 6' 3" 215#

 

WOW!!  Do you think that we have a chance to find a QB somewhere in there?  Regardless of where we draft?

As things stand right now (assuming no serious injury), yes, I woulld prefer Andrew Luck, for several reasons.  But I sure as hell can live with a number of the other guys on that list.  And, the fact that a number of teams will draft QBs this year, simply reduces the number of teams who will be looking to select a QB next year.  Go Niners!

I was just reading Eric Branch's blog and noticed several tweets regarding TAIWAN JONES.

Today is his pro day in Pittsburg (CA).  Representatives of 26 NFL teams in attendance.  Niners represented by Tom Gamble and Tom Rathman.

Remember, this guy is 6'0" and 195.  Early results:

First 40-yard time ... 4.32!!!  Probably hand timed; but, THAT is faster than ANY 40 time for ANY of the TOP 50 running back prospects in this years draft!!

Broad jump ... 11'0"!!  The all-time NFL Combine broad jump record is 11'5". 

 

Fooch asked for some additional assessment, so here you go:

Because we have a lot of positional needs in this draft I have been trying, in my mock, to satisfy as many of those as possible.  Obviously you have to prioritize for greatest needs first.  Accordingly, since RB is not one of our biggest needs, I have deferred the selection of a RB until round five of six.  Using Pro Football Weekly's draft value chart (which is a combined concensus among NFL scouts as to where various prospects will be selected), in the fifth round you could expect to get Todman, Evans or White.  If you wait until the sixth round your looking at Ridley, Locke or Scott.  In the seventh Fannin, Harper or Allen.  Since my belief is that the Niners should wait until next year's draft to select Frank's future replacement (in the first three rounds where they can get a really good prospect), my thought is to add a COPRB in the lower rounds this year ... somebody who would be different from Frank / Dixon as a third-down guy.  In the fifth through seventh rounds the guy I like best is Derrick Locke from Kentucky; accordingly, I have been mocking him at pick #190 in the sixth round.

Now, along comes Jones' performance today.  Should I rethink my strategy?  Is Jones a guy, even though from a small college program, who could become Frank's replacement?  If we decided to make a run at him (especially given the amount of attention he's getting at today's pro day), how high would we have to go?  If we did that, how would it impact my mock?  Who would we have to forego?  Those were my thoughts when I saw Branch's tweets.

So, where does Jones rank in the RB prospects?  Here's the joke ... Draft Tek has him ranked as #334 overall!!  That's not within 150 picks from where he will be selected ... but then we all know the DT's staff and computers aren't, shall we say, the sharpest knives in the drawer.  PFW's chart has Jones being selected in the mid-fourth-round; that could change after today's performance.  NFLDraftScout (CBS' Rob Rang) has Jones as the 108th ranked prospect.  So, just for the hell of it, let's say that if we want Jones we have to select him in the fourth round ... we have two picks, #108 (just coincidence??) and #115. 

So, in my mock, what do we give up if we go for Jones in the fourth?  I've got us taking OLB Dontay Moch (Nevada) at 108 and either WR Tandon Doss (Indiana) or WR Terrance Toliver (LSU) at 115.  I'm not willing to trade Moch for Jones.  (I have us taking Peterson/Amukamara, Dalton/Kaepernick, and NT Kendrick Ellis in the first three rounds.)  Doss will not slip out of the fourth round, but Toliver might slip even as far as the sixth.

So, here's my decision:  Let's go for Moch at 108, Jones (instead of Locke) as our RB prospect at 115, then try to get WR Toliver in the sixth (instead of Locke).  If Toliver doesn't slip that far, we find another big red-zone WR.  What do YOU think?

It's Saturday evening ... I've had several martinis ... I'll put a target on my chest so that you guys can take a few shots.  Where I think that there is the possibility that my pick won't be available, I have listed an alternative pick.  With than, here is my latest mock for the Niners at T minus three weeks, assuming that trades are not allowed:

Round 1 / Pick 7:  Patrick Peterson CB LSU  /  Prince Amukamara CB Nebraskac

Round 2 / Pick 45:  Andy Dalton QB TCU  /  Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada

Round 3 / Pick 76:  Kendrick Ellis NT Hampton

Round 4 / Pick 108:  Dontay Moch OLB Nevada

Round 4 / Pick 115:  Tandon Doss WR Indiana  /  Terrence Toliver WR LSU

Round 5 / Pick 141:  Owen Marecic FB Stanford

Round 6 / Pick 174:  Richard Sherman CB Stanford  /  Cortez Allen CB Citadel

Round 6 / Pick 190:  Derrick Locke COPRB Kentucky

Round 7 / Pick 210:  Andrew Jackson OG Fresno State

Round 7 / Pick 230:  Eric Hagg FS Nebraska

Round 7 / Pick 238:  Marc Schiechl DE Colorado School of Mines

Round 7 / Pick 249:  Thomas Kaiser OLB Stanford

Undrafted Free Agent:  Pep Levingston DE LSU

Undrarted Free Agent:  Kris O'Dowd C USC

Undrafted Free Agent:  Kai Forbath K UCLA

 

So, to summarize:

On defense, we get 8 prospects ... 2 CBs, 2 OLBs, 1 NT, 2 DEs and 1 FS

On offense, we get 6 prospects ... one each QB, FB, COPRB, WR, OG and C

On special teams, we get 1 prospect ... a kicker.

 

OK, there it is ... fire away!!!!

Let me start by saying that I am not normally a big fan of the opinions of The Bleacher Report.  But, those of you who feel likewise, hang in there because I think that this week they have come up with some interesting ideas.  I'm not saying that I agree with all their picks ... I certainly don't ... but look at these with a bigger picture in mind.

Their first mock was done March 25th and doesn't consider the recent allocation of compensation picks.  I'll call this one the "like-Barrows" version of the draft -- the Niners trade up to draft a QBOTF.  It assumes that Patrick Peterson, Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert have already been selected.  Here it is:

Pick #7 -- Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska

Before their next pick (at 45), the Niners trade for a selection between 33 (New England) and 41 (Washington), using picks 45, 137, and 204; with that pick:

Pick #33-41 -- Christian Ponder QB Florida State

Pick #76 -- Dontay Moch OLB Nevada

Pick #107 -- They picked Owen Marecic FB Stanford, but I believe meant Kendrick Ellis NT Hampton

Pick #114 -- They picked Ellis but meant Marecic (Ellis is the higher rated prospect and would be picked first)

Pick #137 -- Traded to acquire Ponder

Pick #168 -- Richard Sherman CB Stanford

Pick #185 -- Jeff Maehl WR Oregon

Pick #199 -- Eric Hagg S Nebraska

Pick #204 -- Traded to acquire Ponder

So, there it is; kinda plain vanilla, but there are some good players in there.  From a needs standpoint the biggest hole IMO is the lack of additional help at COPRB or RB.

 

Now, let's get to the more interesting mock.  I'll call this the "preparing for the Andrew Luck (or other franchise QB) sweepstakes version" of the draft.  It assumes, as before, that both Patrick Peterson and Von Miller have already been selected but that Prince Amukamara and Blaine Gabbert are still available.  I know, you may not believe that Gabbert will still be there at #7, but just play what-if with them, because the outcome is interesting. 

Pick #7 -- The Niners trade this pick to Minnesota (who select Gabbert) in exchage for picks 12 and 106 in this draft AND Minnesota's second round pick in 2012.

Pick #12 -- Cam Jordan DE California

Pick #45 -- Devon House CB New Mexico State

Pick #76 -- Dontay Moch OLB Nevada

Pick #106 (from Minnesota) -- Kendrick Ellis NT Hampton (not sure he lasts this long, but it's their mock)

Pick #108 (107 before comp picks) -- The Niners trade this pick to Washington (who select Terrence Toliver WR LSU) in exchange for Washington's third round pick in 2012.

Pick #115 (114) -- DeMarco Murray RB Oklahoma

Pick #140 (137) -- Henry Hynoski FB Pittsburgh (might still be able to get Marecic instead at this pick)

Pick #173 (168) -- Chris Rucker FS (most services rate him as a CB) Michigan State  (I don't like the idea on converting Rucker to S; I would leave him at CB or draft Chris Culliver FS South Carolina as a S here)

Pick #190 (185) -- DeAndre Brown WR Southern Mississippi

Pick #210 (199) -- Mitch Mustain QB USC (four years in a pro-style offense; certainly has talent, but hasn't had the opportunity to play much)

Pick #215 -- The Niners trade this pick to Tennessee (who select David Carter DT UCLA) in exchange for Tennessee's sixth round pick in 2012.

Pick #238 -- Zane Taylor C/OG Utah

Pick #249 -- Trevis Turner OT Abilene Christian (this guy has a lot of developing to do; I'm also concerned that he might not be big enough ... 6'8" 335#)

Obviously, the further assumption with this particular mock -- not selecting a QB until the 7th round -- is that the Niners either resign Alex Smith or otherwise obtain a veteran QB via FA or trade, with the plan to draft the "real" QBOTF in the 2012 draft.

 

So there's the "preparation" version on TBR's mock.  Perhaps the most interesting part of this mock is where it leaves the Niners going into the 2012 draft which will be one of the most QB-talent-laden drafts ever ... they would have one first, two seconds, two thirds, one each in four and five, two sixths, a seventh PLUS possible compensation picks for Franklin, Lawson, Goldson, et.al.  That is more than enough ammunition to get whichever QB you want in the 2012 draft ... Luck or anyone else that you might prefer.

Go Niners!

We certainly have fun with our continuing draft debate ... which position is most important?  QB?  CB?  OLB?  Who should we draft first?  Second?  All lots of fun expressing our diverse opinions but not pertinent in the real world ... the fact of the matter is that WE NEED TO GET THE BEST PROSPECTS THAT WE CAN AT ALL THREE POSITIONS ... AND MORE.  Perhaps the more relevant question then is ... how do we get the best prospects that we can at each position of need.  How do we optimize the results of this draft?

It's a pretty straight forward process to evaluate prospects at each position of need, perhaps refining that evaluation by categorizing sub-groups of player types (e.g., feature WR, tall WR, slot WR), and then rank order them.  Straight forward because you can control the process.

The tough part is figuring out how to get the best possible prospects at each position ... when you're competing with the needs of 31 other teams and their probably differing evaluations of the same prospects?  How to scheme to optimize the outcome?  What to do to get what you want?  The easy and passive answer, and seemingly accepted by many teams, is to simply accept the picks that you have and grab the BPA at a need position when your turn comes.  Is that the right thing to do?  Maybe.  But, probably not.  It would seem that you need some kind of a guide ... a draft philosophy.

The following thoughts on the NFL draft are from a book written by Bill Walsh in 1990 entitled "Building A Champion".  I will do some paraphrasing to keep the length of this diatribe shorter.

Draft Philosophy

*  The goal is always to improve the team, to get progressively better with each draft.

*  When trying to improve the team across the board (i.e., not just at a few positions), trade down to get more and / or better picks.

Regarding the 1980 draft:  "... I had to weigh getting an 'impact' player with our top pick or trading it for two other picks.  ... This was our first experience in trading draft choices (downward).  It provided a procedure for later years, when it (trading down) became a regular part of our draft philosophy."

Regarding the two picks acquired in the first trade down:  "Neither was to become a Hall of Fame candidate, but they immediately strengthened our squad and were starters on our 1981 World Championship team.  ...  Without either one of them, we could not have made such strides, and I doubt we would have become world champions."

*  When the state of the team is "solid and strong" at every position, trade up to get one impact player -- that's the only way to get better.

Regarding the 1985 draft:  "We were drafting last in 1985 because we'd just won the Super Bowl.  We were solid and strong at virtually every position.  When you reach that point, your only chance for measurable improvement is to acquire a true impart player."  The Niners traded up to draft Jerry Rice.

One other point about Bill's draft philosophy that I found interesting:  "We always drafted a speed receiver, if for no other reason than to give our defensive backs somebody to work against in training camp.  If the receiver made the team, fine, but even if he didn't, he helped prepare our defensive backs for someone with sprinter speed."

 

So, where are we in 2011?  Uh, definitely NOT "solid and strong" at every position.  That would suggest that we consider a trade-down strategy this year ... to get more and / or better picks ... to improve the team at several or more positions.

Our three most important needs this year, regardless of priority, are QB, CB and OLB (the primary pass-rushing position in a 3/4 defense).  WE NEED THEM ALL.  Beyond that, we need additional improvements:

1.  A NT -- AF won't return; if you believe that RJF is NFL-starter-quality, maybe we get him some help at NT in a lower round; if, like me, you believe that RJF is an adequate backup but not a quality starter at this point, we should draft a NT prospect who can start soon if not immediately.  (Side note:  IMO you can't trade for a quality NT without paying a rediculously high price, even if you can find a team even willing to trade a good NT)

2.  A change-of-pace RB -- Westbrook won't return; we need to get Gore and Dixon some help.

3.  A better FB -- Harbaugh's system calls for an effective FB; Norris is well beyond his productive years.

4.  A left DE -- somebody to give Soap some competition and, hopefully, improve the productivity of the position.

5.  A taller WR with some athleticism and speed -- except for Ziegler at 6' 3" (and whose health after last year's injury may be in question), the tallest of our six other wideouts is Crabtree at 6' 1".  Morgan and Jurovich are 6' 0".  Ginn, Williams and Long are 5' 11".

6.  Additional depth at C/OG.

7.  A new kicker -- Nedney is 37 years old and experiencing increasing leg problems; Reed isn't the long term answer; Scaccia may be the answer, but we don't know for sure.

 

Damn!  That's askinng for a lot!  Can we get there ... in one draft?  Probably not all the way, but close I think.  THAT is my goal in writing this post.  Find a way!

So, using Walsh's philosophy, here goes --

Getting the Picks

Trade #1:  Many mockers have Detroit picking CB Jimmy Smith at pick #13.  Would they rather have Prince Amukamara?  Before Dallas picks him at #9?  Trade #7 in Round 1, #107 in Round 4 and #168 in Round 6 to Detroit in exchange for #13 in Round 1 and #44 in Round 2. 

Trade #2:  Many mockers have Kansas City looking for a #1 WR with there pick #21, even though not Green or Jones.  But what if they could get Julio Jones before the Rams have a chance to draft him at #14?  Trade #13 in Round 1(acquired from Detroit in Trade #1) to Kansas City in exchange for #21 in Round 1 and #55 in Round 2.

Trade #3:  Everyone (except their GM Buddy NIx) knows that Buffalo needs at least one, maybe two, starting OTs, but they will probably draft a QB, DT or DE at #3.  What if, in addition to that #3 pick, we gave them an opportunity to draft Solder, Castonzo or Carimi?  Trade #21 in Round 1 (acquired from Kansas City in Trade #2) and #204 in Round 7 to Buffalo in exchange for #34 in Round 2 and #68 in Round 3.

Accordingly, after all of that, we end up with the following picks:

Round 1 -- None

Round 2 -- 34, 44, 45, 55

Round 3 -- 68, 76

Round 4 -- 114;  Round 5 -- 137;  Round 6 -- 185;  Round 7 -- 199.

Where to Start

We have to start with the QB position.  Why?  Basically because of the supply vs. demand issue but I'll avoid the details for now.  There is little question, if any, that Blaine Gabbert is the QB prospect with the least-risk-with-most-upside-potential in this draft; but since he has to transition from a spread system it will take him a while, even with good coaching, to be ready to start.  I believe that the prospect that Jim Harbaugh will want to draft is Christian Ponder.  I'm going to let Rob Rang (from NFLDraftScout), who I believe is the best of the analysts at evaluating QBs, to make the case.  Says Rang:  Ponder is clearly the top WCO QB prospect in this draft.  He has the intelligence, accuracy, experience, mobility, and leadership qualities to be a success at that position.  He was a 3-year-starter with QB ratings of 115.0, 147.7, and 135.7 (even though injured for much of the season).  For his career he had a 61.8% completion rate with 49 TDs and 28 INTs.  Unlike Gabbert and Newton he operated in a pro system in college, he is more consistent and accurate than Locker, more mobile than Mallett, has shown strong leadership skills, and has no character issues.  My aside:  We know that Harbaugh likes intelligent guys; Ponder had a 3.89 GPA while majoring in Real Estate and Finance.  My conclusion:  Ponder is Harbaugh's guy.

OK, great, so we want to get Ponder as our QBOTF.  Which pick should we use to try to get him?  Ah, there's the question!  We know that at least two (Gabbert and Newton), maybe three, QB prospects will go in the first round ... doesn't matter much to who.  That would leave two to three of the top QB prospects (including Ponder, probably) available for selection in the second round.  So, what does the demand look like?  THAT'S THE PROBLEM!  Our first pick in the second round is #44.  Here are the teams wanting to draft a QB, some of whom (but not all) may have picked theirs in the first round, that will be drafting ahead of us at #44 in the second round:  Cincinnati at #35, Arizona at #38, Tennessee at #39, Washington at #41, and Minnesota at #43.  So what are the chances that Ponder makes it to #44?  Slim and none, and slim just left town!  That makes the decision easy -- if you want Ponder you have to take him at #34!  I know, I know!  He's not worth picking that high!  But that's not the issue ... the issue is, do you want Ponder (as I believe that Harbaugh does)?  If so, you MUST take him before the second round run of QB prospects by other teams.

Making the Selections

I know, that was a hell of a long preamble, but I thought that you should at least understand my underlying logic in this whole optimization exercise.  Now the picks:

Pick 34:  Christian Ponder  QB (Florida State) -- Ranked 36th overall by NFLDraftScout

Pick 44:  Brooks Reed  OLB (Arizona) -- Ranked 48th overall by NFLDraftScout

Picks 45 and 55:  Select two from:  Devon House  CB (New Mexico State) -- Ranked 56th overall by NFLDS;  Brandon Burton  CB (Utah) -- Ranked 60th overall by NFLDS;  Ras-I Dowling  CB (Virginia) -- Ranked 70th overall by NFLDS

Pick 68:  Kendrick Ellis  NT (Hampton) -- Ranked 68th overall by NFLDS

Pick 76:  Alternative A --  Select between:  Greg Little  WR (North Carolina) -- Ranked 80th overall by NFLDS;  Tandon Doss  WR (Indiana) -- Ranked 108th overall by NFLDS

Alternative B (for those of you who want QBOTF insurance) --  Select between:  Colin Kaepernick  QB (Nevada) -- Ranked 77th by NFLDS;  Andy Dalton  QB (TCU) -- Ranked 82nd by NFLDS

Pick 114:  Select one:  Owen Marecic  FB (Stanford) -- Ranked 122nd overall by NFLDS;  John Moffitt  C/OG (Wisconsin) -- Ranked 139th overall by NFLDS  (Note: Harbaugh would probably prefer Marecic)

Pick 137:  Derrick Locke  RB (Kentucky) -- Ranked 153rd overall by NFLDS

Picks 185 and 199 plus any compensatory picks that we receive:  Select as many as picks available from --

Defensive Ends:  Cliff Mathews (South Carolina) -- Ranked 193rd overall,  Brandon Bair (Oregon) -- Ranked 203rd overall,  Ryan Winterswyk (Boise State) -- Ranked 243rd overall,  Lazerius Levingston (LSU) -- Ranked 250th overall

Free Safeties:  Chris Culliver (South Carolina) -- was ranked at 213th but has now jumped to 125th,  Eric Hagg (Nebraska) -- Ranked at 213th overall

Defensive Tackle:  David Carter (UCLA) -- Ranked 202nd overall

Kicker:  Alex Henery (Nebraska) -- Ranked 172nd overall

Cornerback:  Richard Sherman (Stanford) -- Ranked 219th overall

 

So, there's my draft based on prospect rankings as of today ... obviously they may change as we get closer to the draft. 

Finally, we should try to resign Alex Smith, David Baas, Manny Lawson, and Takeo Spikes at a minimum; others if possible.

In free agency, given the savings from having no first round draft pick, go get Jon Joseph  CB (Bengals)

Assumptions With Respect to Free Agents

With respect to the forthcoming draft, is the first question what are draft priorities ought to be?  Actually NO.  Before we know what we should be looking for, we need to know what we've got ... that is, what assumptions do we make about our free agents.  For purposes of this post I am assuming the following:

We will resign (to at least a one-year deal) -- David Baas, Tarell Brown, Demetric Evans, Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy, Ray McDonald, Alex Smith, and Takeo Spikes.  Also, I assume that Nate Clements knows that nobody else will sign him to a big-money contract, so he will agree to resign a reduced-price contract in lieu of being released.  And, I assume that we will make Brian Westbrook an offer but that he will choose to sign elsewhere, where he will get more playing time.

Conversely, we will lose the following guys who will sign elsewhere -- Shane Andrus (unneeded), Aubrayo Franklin (the Niners won't franchise him again at a cost of $13 million per), Dashon Goldson (not worth what he will ask), Jeff Reed (less reliable than Nedney), and maybe Troy Smith (although it doesn't matter either way).

Finally, although I am in favor of making a run at him in free agency, I assume that we will not win the Nnamdi Asomugha sweepstakes.

So, that's my pre-draft starting point.

Position Priorities for the Draft

I don't want to get into a "which is more important" discussion here.  Let's just agree that we have some major needs and some minor needs (or like-to-haves) to be addressed in the draft.  To some extent these priorities are dictated by the assumptions made above.  For example, if Franklin is not resigned we will need to address the NT position in the draft.

Also, although a QBOTF is a major need, I think that most of us agree that the quality level of most of the QB prospects in this year's draft simply doesn't justify them for consideration as a first-round pick.  (This explains why I have assumed that Alex Smith will return as our starting QB until a draftee is ready to play.  Yes, we could make a trade but IMO the only candidates better than Alex will cost more than they are worth in a trade AND we won't know what kind of trade, if any, can be made until AFTER the draft.)

So, IMO major position priorities are -- quarterback, cornerback, pass-rusher (3/4 OLB in our case).

The lesser priority positions are -- nose tackle (to replace Franklin), fullback (Norris won't cut it in Harbaugh's offense), change-of-pace running back (to replace Westbrook), backup center/guard (to protect against the possibility that Heitman can't return), defensive end (an upgrade to Soap), and free safety (replacing Goldson's roster spot).

Drafting Strategy

We have all been going back and forth as to which position need is more important (and therefore addressed with the 7th pick) -- cornerback or pass-rusher.  I submit that our problem is that WE NEED BOTH and are first two choices in the draft are far apart -- 7 and 45.  So, regardless of which position we pick first, we're going to get a Class-A player at 7 but a less-than-Class-A player at 45.  I propose that we balance this out somewhat by getting at least two Class-A-minus picks at the two critical need positions via a trade-down strategy.  I've looked at most of the possible trade-down opportunities and what could be gained.  Here's the one I like best:  New England has picks at 17, 28, 33 etc.  They are looking to upgrade at DE, RB and OG among other needs.  I propose that we trade our #7 pick (trade value 1500) to New England, giving them a shot at Cam Jordan, Robert Quinn, or whoever, in exchange for picks #17 (trade value 950) and #33 (trade value 580).

My Alternative Mock for the Niners

Since we don't know exactly who will be available at each pick, I have listed at least two prospects at each pick.  My strategy is to pick the guy listed first, if he's available; if the guy listed first is gone, pick the second guy listed, etc.

Round 1 - Pick 17 (from New England):  CB Brandon Harris (Miami) or CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado).

Round 2 - Pick 33 (from New England):  OLB Justin Houston (Georgia) or OLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA).

Round 2 - Pick 45:  CB Davon House (New Mexico State) or CB Brandon Burton (Utah).   Note:  If conderned that desired QB draftee will not last until Round 3, draft the QB here and then the best CB available in Round 3. 

Round 3 - Pick 76:  QB Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) or QB Christian Ponder (Florida State).

Round 4 - Pick 107:  NT Kendrick Ellis (Hampton) or WR Austin Pettis (Boise State).

Round 4 - Pick 114 (from San Diego):  FB Owen Marecic (Stanford)  or C/OG John Moffitt (Wisconsin).

Round 5 - Pick 137:  NT Sione Fua (Stanford) if Ellis not selected at Pick 107 or C/OG John Moffitt (Wisconsin) if not selected at Pick 114 or DE Greg Romeus (Pittsburgh) if Ellis selected at Pick 107 and Moffitt selected at Pick 114.

Round 6 - Pick 168:  COPRB Derrick Locke (Kentucky) or K Alex Henery (Nebraska) or WR Cecil Shorts (Mount Union).

Round 6 - Pick 185:  FB Charles Clay (Tulsa) if Marecic not selected at Pick 114 or any of the prospects listed at Pick 168 not selected at Pick 168.

Round 7 - Pick 199:  FS Will Hill (Florida) or  FS Chris Culliver (South Carolina).

Round 7 - Pick 200 (from Detroit):  DE Lazarus Levingston (LSU) if Romeus not selected at Pick 137 or OLB/DE Ryan Winterswyk (Boise State).

 

In addition, sign as undrafted free agents:  C Chase Beeler (Stanford), WR Armon Binns (Cincinnati), WR DeAndre Brown (Southern Mississippi), WR Jeff Maehl (Oregon) -- a little training camp competition.

 

There you have it.  The more I think about this approach, the better I like it -- it gives us two quality CBs in the first two rounds, plus a quality pass-rusher, a good QBOTF prospect, and fills all of our other needs to some level.  What do you think?

 

 

To my knowledge, DraftTek is the only service that has their full 7-round mock published at this point in the cycle ... if there are others please let us all know so that we can take a look.  DraftTek has made a lot of changes to their prospect rankings in the last two weeks as a result of the East-West Game and Senior Bowl practice week.  Here's how they see the Niners' draft at this point in time:

Round 1 - Pick 7:  Robert Quinn  3/4OLB  North Carolina  6'5" 268#  (ranked 6th overall = +1)

Round 2 - Pick 45:  Brandon Burton  CB  Utah  6'0" 185#  (ranked 45th overall = 0)

Round 3 - Pick 76:  Andy Dalton  QB  TCU  6'3"  215#  (ranked 69th overall = +7)

Round 4 - Pick 107:  Jeremy Kerley  WR  TCU  5'10"  192#  (ranked 104th overall and rising =  +3)

Round 4 - Pick 114:  Phil Taylor  NT  Baylor  6'4"  355#  (ranked 145th overall = -31)

Round 5 - Pick 137:  Roy Helu  RB  Nebraska  6'0"  220#  (ranked 123rd overall = +14)

Round 6 - Pick 168:  Lazarius Levingston  3/4DE  LSU  6'4"  280#  (ranked 180th overall and rising = -12)

Round 6 - Pick 185:  Rob McGill  LOT  Louisiana Tech  6'6"  310#  (ranked 205th overall and rising = -20)

Round 7 - Pick 199:  Will Hill  FS  Florida  6'1"  205#  (ranked 208th overall = -9)

Round 7 - Pick 204:  Greg Salas  WR  Hawaii  6'2"  200#  (ranked 227th overall = -23)

 

Actually, were these picks to be the real thing, it's not a bad draft at all.  Let's see if I can improve it some:

At Pick 76:  I take Christian Ponder  QB  Florida State  6'3"  227#  (ranked 63rd* overall)  over Andy Dalton

At Pick 107:  I take Tandon Doss  WR  Indiana  6'3"  200#  (ranked 108th and rising)  over Jeremy Kerley

At Pick 137:  I take Owen Marecic  FB  Stanford  6'1"  243#  (ranked 84th* overall)  over Roy Helu

At Pick 199:  I take Curtis Marsh  CB  Utah State  6'0"  193#  (ranked 207th and rising)  over Will Hill

At Pick 204:  I take Will Hill  FS  Florida  6'1"  205#  (ranked 208th overall)  over Greg Salas

 

Thus, in my version, we get a higher-ranked and better-suited (IMO) QB, a taller wideout instead of another slot receiver, a starting fullback instead of a backup running back, and a second cornerback instead of a second wide receiver.  Better!

So, what do you guys think?

 

*  Note -- Even though they were ranked higher than where I selected them, in DraftTek's mock both Ponder and Marecic were still available where I picked them.

Now that the college football season is FINALLY over, I though that I would cruise the various draft analysis services to see where each was in their preparations for the 2011 NFL draft season.  Not surprisingly, most haven't even yet responded to the announced declarations by underclassmen, so all they have on their sights is rankings of seniors ... worthless.

However, also not surprising, Draft Tek has already reflected declarations in their rosters and have forecasted the underclassmen that they believe will declare.  Further, they have, at least preliminarily, ranked all potential draftees by position and in the overall.  Finally, they have done their first pass on a mock draft.  Hey, these guys are all over it!

So, what do they think that the Niners will do, you ask?

Let's look first at what DraftTek believes are our needs, ranked from 1 (most important) to 4 (somewhat less important); interesting to note that DraftTek has all other positions ranked as 9 (no need).  Here's what they think that we need:

1 = CB (surprise!);  2 = QB (another surprise!);  3 = DE34;  4 = WRF, OLB34, DT34

Nothing really shocking there -- they seem to understand what we need.

 

Now, the mock draft for the Niners:

 

#7 (Round 1) -- J.J. Watt  DE34  Wisconsin  (ranked #2 DL ahead of Bowers, Jordan, Bailey & #10 overall)

#45 (Round 2) -- Christian Ponder  QB  Florida State  (ranked #5 QB and #60 overall; highest ranked QB = #18))

#76 (Round 3) -- Alfonzo Dennard  CB  Nebraska  (ranked #8 CB and #97 overall; see comments below for other CBs)

#107 (Round 4) -- Sione Fua  NT  Stanford  (ranked #4 NT and #124 overall; at 307 the lightest of the NTs)

#114 (Round 4 from San Diego) -- Tim Barnes  OC   Missouri  (ranked #4 OC and #128 overall)

#137 (Round 5) -- Jeff Demps  RBC  Florida  (ranked #4 RB and #127 overall)

#168 (Round 6) -- Tandon Doss  WR  Indiana  (ranked #13 WR and #169 overall; value skyrocketing) 

#199 (Round 7) -- Brett Greenwood  FS  Iowa  (ranked #15 FS and #211 overall)

#200 (Round 7 from Detroit) -- Cecil Shorts III  WRF  Mount Union  (ranked #15 WRF and #191 overall)

 

There you have it!  I won't comment for now, other than to say that it's not bad.  For those of you who are about to scream "well what about ...", here's where they were picked --

#2 Prince CB;  #4 Peterson CB/S;  #22 Jimmy Smith CB;  #38 Gabbert QB; #44 House CB; #66 Austin Pettis WRF; #81 Titus Young WRF; #86 Kendrick Ellis NT (could consider him rather than Fua); #92 O'Dowd C; #113 Dowling CB (wow! talk about having your draft stock drop); #148 Marecic FB/LB; #151 Kaepernick QB (wow! maybe draft him at #137 and House at #45???); #194 Romeus DE (wow! another drop like a rock).  Perhaps the most unusual thing that I saw in DraftTek's rankings is that they don't have Jeff Maehl (Oregon WR) ranked at all -- the guy was All Pac-10 and had 169 career catches for 2178 yards.  Has to be a mistake!

Since I'm retired, I had a lot of time to watch football this fall and winter.  I'm almost embarassed to say that I typically watched at least three college games each weekend during the season and virtually every bowl game. (Is there anyone anywhere who doesn't believe that there are too damn many bowl games?  But that's another topic.)  Why do I watch so much football?  Two reasons: I love football and, since I am primarily a pro football junkie, I'm always keeping an eye out for what I consider to be undervalued potential draftees.  As some of you know, I will admit to keeping notes concerning the goings on.  Then, go back and review later.

Here is the point of this post:  When reviewing my notes from this ENTIRE college football season, one single point stood out above all the rest -- how incredibly bad the officiating has consistently become!  Not just a few games, or some games, but EVERY game -- including last night's "championship game officiated by an all-star crew."  God, if that's all-star, the game is in big trouble.  Don't know how many others noticed, but they missed at least eight holding calls last night.  I won't bore you with the details.

Am I the only nut out here?  What are you other guys seeing with respect to officiating?  How about you, Drew?

In early December I wrote a FanPost entitled "A Plea to Jed York: The Case for Jim Harbaugh".  I have no illusions that my plea had anything to do with the Niners hiring Harbaugh, but I couldn't possibly be happier with that result.  Hey, maybe, just maybe it's possible that I have magical powers.  So, since my last plea worked out so well, I thought that I would try again.

Underlying facts and opinions --

1.  The Niners need to draft a "Quarterback for the Future".

2.  Andrew Luck is far and away the best college quarterback potentially available in the 2011 NFL draft -- in fact, in my opinion, he is the best pro-ready college QB to come along in the last decaded (including Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, etc.).

3.  I for one am NOT excited about ANY of the other college QBs who have or will declare for the 2011 draft -- in my opinion each one of them has one or more serious flaws.  Harbaugh may be able to fix some of those issues over time, but it's a crap shoot.  (Note that since Luck has declined to declare for the draft, none of the major draft services expect to see any QB taken in the top 10 picks.)

4.  Andrew Luck is the only college player for whom I would be willing to trade multiple draft choices (and/or possibly players) to obtain the right to draft him.

5.  If he had the opportunity to continue to work with Jim Harbaugh as his head coach, continuing to develop using the modified WCO used at Stanford and  to be used by the Harbaugh-led Niners, I believe that Andrew Luck could be convinced to reverse his decision about declaring for the 2011 draft.

6.  The Carolina Panthers have several positions of significant need to be satisfied either through free agency or the 2011 draft -- Draft Tek and Draft Scout believe that Carolina's greatest needs, in priority sequence, are as follows:

Offense -- QB, TE, WR (all types), OG     Defense -- DT43, DE43, OLB43, CB, WILB, FS

7.  The Panthers have already traded their second-round pick in the 2011 draft to New England; thus, they have fewer choices to draft more players.

8.  As it stands right now, even though Carolina has the #1 pick in the 2011 draft, they will have NO OPPORTUNITY to draft Andrew Luck.  This situation provides Carolina with two choices: (a) draft some player other than Luck (probably Nick Fairley) with the first pick and then wait to draft another player in the third round; or, (b) trade down with the #1 pick for the opportunity to acquire more draft picks and perhaps one or more starting-quality players.  Since they can't draft Luck, it seems to me that option (b) makes good sense for them.

Continue reading this post »

I'm posting this separately since it will be too lengthy to be included as a comment within a thread.

 

First, a couple of questions and answers from Mike Sando's Thursday Chat:

 

Question:  "Let's assume Trent Baalke is hired as the new SF GM.  Do you measure the correctness of Jed York's decision by which coach is then brought on?  For example, if Harbaugh comes to the 49ers then York made the right decision to promote Baalke."

Answer (Sando):  "I'll be looking to see to what degree Jed York is aware of his own limitations.  They need strong leadership, not someone York can control." 

My Comment:  Gee Mike, why don't you tell us what you really think!

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Question:  "Who do you think that the 49ers perceive as the dream team for GM / Coach?"

Answer (Sando):  "I do not know how much they really want to shake things up.  If they are headed toward retaining Trent Baalke, then it looks like they either could not or did not want to make significant changes.  Jed York has no incentive to sacrifice his own power / influence.  I have a hard time envisioning a big-time 'name' coach reporting to him, frankly."

My translation:  Jed, if you really want to resurrect the franchise and retain a do-something, turn-it-around coach, you better hire a REAL, knowledgeble GM to work with him, then get the hell out of the way.  Don't assume that you are football-smarter than others; be willing to hire, then watch and learn from, a superior GM.  If you want to keep Baalke, fine, keep him on the road evaluating player talent and away from "running the team."

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Then, a comment from Tim Kavanagh, pro football writer for ESPN Insider:

"The decision on a GM will have a great impact on which head coach will come take over, as the relationship between the two men will be vital to building the franchise."

My Comment:  First and foremost I want Jim Harbaugh as our next coach because he has demonstrated at least twice that he has the leadership skills and know-how to turn a bad football program around; further, he has demonstrated his ability to develop and mentor young QBs.  THOSE are the qualities that we need.  Beyond that, he has a strong sense of offensive system and the ability to be a superior tactician.  What else could we possibly want?

Many "pundits" seem to believe that York wants Harbaugh as his next coach.  Don't know whether that's true or not, but IF it is, why not discuss alternative GM candidates with JH?  He's the guy who will have to work most closely with the new GM.  Why not get his opinion?  If Jed had that input to the GM decision it might help him to make the "right" decision.  Beyond that, a "right decision" with respect to the GM position might help JH to decide that Jed is serious about turning the ship around and encourage him to accept the captaincy of that effort.  No thoughtful HC, who has multiple opportunities, would want to work within the FO structure that has been in place for the past decade. 

It's you choice, Jed.  Do you really want a revived, winning, well-respected organization?  Or, do you want to be the know-it-all who continues to head up a disfunctional, irrelavant team?  YOU CAN'T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS!  As a LONG time fan I hope that you have the guts that your uncle did in 1978.

I was browsing through si.com and came across a poll conducted by the Sacramento Bee.  Thought that the voting results were interesting.  I don't know how to post a poll here but would be interested to see opinions from Niners Nation regulars.  Here are the choices:

1.  49ers failed Alex Smith

2.  Alex Smith failed 49ers

3.  Both failed each other

Can somebody help me by putting this in the form of a poll?  Thanks.

It turns out that this will be a fairly lengthy post; it didn't start out that way, but when, as an avid Niners fan, you mix being an analytical (hi there, FloridaDanny) with a natural curiosity, things happen.  Let me explain:

Yesterday I'm minding my own business but decide to jump onto Niner Nation to see what's happening.  Fooch has an article up entitled "49ers Penalties:  How Many This Week?"  Damn good question ... let's give it a read.  Then, jsteez puts up a post within Fooch's article:

"Any idea how this [Singletary's record] compared to the Bill Walsh teams?

The penalties seem to reflect on an overall lack of discipline and execution, which doesn't happen to good teams.  I'd have to put the majority of the blame on the coaching staff."

God, another really good question.  So, sez I, I think that I'll go find out.  But, are we talking number of penalties or penalty yards?  And how would the other (than Singletary and Walsh) former Niner coaches compare?  Well, let's just look at the whole shootin' match.  So here's how it looks:

Average Number of Penalties Per Game  (total number of penalties called against the coach's team during his total Niner coaching career divided by the total number of games that he coached -- ranked from best to worst):

Walsh (Late*)  5.47

Seifert  5.72

Walsh (Early*)  6.07

Nolan  6.16

Erickson  6.47

Mariucci  6.51

Singletary  6.62

*Note -- I divided Walsh's results into two groups:  "Early" includes 1979 and 1980 when he was turning the roster over seemingly every five minutes in an attempt to find some viable players -- sometimes he had a hard time having people who even knew some plays by game time.  "Early" also includes Walsh's 1982 record of 3-6 accomplished in the strike-shortened season by "scab" players off the street.  "Late" includes all the rest of Walsh's coaching record of 91-33-1.

So, it's not our imagination ... Singletary-coached teams do have more penalties called against them.  Worse, while his total game average is 6.62, the per game average for 2010 is 7.67.  It's gotten worse, not better.  6.62 is 21% more penalties than the best Niner coach, but 7.67 is 40% worse than Walsh (Late).  I guess that it's fair to say that Walsh was less willing to put up with penalties than Singletary is.

I wonder what penalty yards would look like?

Average Penalty Yards Per Game  (total penalty yards called against the coach's team during his total Niner coaching career divded by the total number of games he coached -- ranked from best to worst):

Walsh (Late*)  45.3

Seifert  46.3

Nolan  47.6

Singletary  51.8

Erickson  52.1

Walsh (Early*)  54.6

Mariucci  55.4

Again, that's more than a 22% difference, per game, from top to bottom!  Re: Singletary -- more penalties, fewer yards per penalty; damn those false starts!

 

Well, if that's the case, I wonder if there's a significant difference in the number of lost fumbles?  Let's take a look.

Average Number of Lost Fumbles Per Game  (this is NOT total fumbles, this is only the total number of fumbles where the Niners losst possession of the ball while playing for a given head coach divided by the total number of games he coached -- ranked from best to worst):

Mariucci  .58

Singletary  .70

Seifert  .74

Walsh (Late*)  .77

Erickson  .91

Nolan  .98

Walsh (Early*)  1.02

I can't let this tidbit go by -- in 1978, the year before Bill Walsh came on the scene, the Niners had two different head coaches during the season, the infamous Pete McCulley (1-8 in 9 games) and Fred O'Connor (1-6 in 7 games) ... a 2-14 combined.  Together, their teams averaged 1.69 lost fumbles per game.  And we think that we have trouble now!

 

Obviously these records are just indicators.  There are so many different variables each year (different players, different competition, different officials, different issues to be emphasized by the officials, different rules, to name just a few) that impact the results.  Nonetheless, I do think that it's interesting to look at these and wonder what each coach took from his relative performance against his peers.  Or does he simply pass it off as irrelevant?

 

Having gone this far I decided to compare head coach's records and rankings on such things as point differential (points for minus points against) per game, yards gained differential per game, first downs differential per game, punts per game, and average time of possession per game.  But let's same those for my next post -- call it Part 2, coming soon.

Fooch's Note: Although we created a coach discussion FanPost, this is a perfect example of when it's alright to go outside of that. 49erFanSince1950 put together a well thought out and structured post discussing both the basics and nuanced details about Jim Harbaugh and his Stanford coaching staff. I've moved most of the FanPost after the jump because I wanted to get it up on the front page.

I think that we all agree the Mike Singletary, while a great human being and Hall or Fame player, simply does not have the necessary qualifications and experience to be a successful head coach in the NFL -- he and his staff lack a viable modern offensive system, do a poor job of game planning, play selection and game management, and simply haven't developed the young roster of players.

Charles Robinson at Yahoo Sports:

     "The most troubling thing is the most talented players aren't developing."  And I would add that, with the present coaching staff, the Niners will likely lose free agents that they don't or shouldn't want to lose.

     "Maybe it's all of the QB.  Or maybe the coaching staff just isn't working.  I'd bet on the latter."

Eric Branch's comment about system and strategy says it all:

     "San Francisco wanted to establish the run.  They didn't (25th in NFL in rushing offense).  They wanted to use the run to control the clock and turn their opponents to fourth-quarter mush.  It didn't happen (23rd in time of possession).  Finally,  at the most basic level, they wanted to score points (nope, 31st is scoring) and win games (nice try ...).

Continue reading this post »

A win is a win is a win!  But let's look a little deeper:

First, the Good ...

• THE NINERS WIN THE GAME!!
• ZERO TURNOVERS!!
• Improvement in play-calling: Johnson gets more creative each week.  Yea!
• 421 net yards of offense -- 7.1 yards per offensive play
• Troy Smith -- 61% completions for 356 yards, 0 interceptions, 21 yards per completion
• Frank Gore -- 154 total yards: 87 yards rushing, 67 yards receiving
• Defense -- got THREE sacks
• Justin Smith (what's new?) and Manny Lawson
• Nice to see Phillip Adams playing some corner (even if at the expense of James' injury)
• Nedney -- 3 for 3 on field goal attempts; one for 47 yards
• Kickoff coverage team -- allowed Rams only 15-yard average on KO returns

Next, the Bad ...

• Inappropriate time-outs:  the Niners CONTINUE to call unnecessary time-outs because of poor organization or execution; thus, with the ball near mid-field and 19 seconds left before halftime, the offense had NO time-outs to work with
• Offense -- 0 for 11 on 3rd down conversion opportunities!
• Thus, Andy Lee having to punt EIGHT times
• Offensive line -- giving up FIVE sacks for a total of 33 yards lost!  Basically the Rams' D-line outplayed the Niners' O-line all day long!
• To top it off, allowing Michael Lewis to get a sack
• Anthony Davis -- still a revolving door; Chris Long continually beat him like a drum  (Question:  Why is it that the other rookie tackles in the league seem to be improving since the beginning of the season but Davis hasn't?)
• Offense -- continuing to give Westbrook, Dixon and Zeigler virtually no opportunities
• Defense -- allowed 22 first downs ... to the Rams
• Defense -- will they EVER learn how to defend the screen pass appropriately?  Apparently not!
• Goldson -- I wish that I understood why his play has dropped off so badly; injuries alone?
• Punting team -- allowed a partial punt block
• Ginn -- in general as a receiver and specifically in KO returns -- 3 for average of 14 yards; on punt returns he either fair-caught or made poor decisions not to catch -- 0 punt returns
• Nedney -- most of his kickoffs were very short; on the flip side, the KO coverage team redeamed him by allowing the Rams only a 15-yard average on KO returns
• Punt coverage team -- allowed 11-yard average punt return

Finally, the Ugly ...

• THREE touchdowns and an interception called back by penalties!
• Speaking of penalties -- 14 penalties for 105 yards!  And, they were NOT all ticky-tacky fouls.  (The
  Niners now rank #3 in the entire NFL in number of penalties and are tied (with Detroit) in ranking #2 in total penalty yards!! Yikes!  They are net getting better "going forward", they are getting worse!  What the hell does that say about the coaching staff?)
• Being called for a delay-of-game penalty on the opponents' 2 yard line!  Yikes!!
• Staley breaking his leg;  how about the idea of giving Boone an opportunity?  Why not?
• I get SICK of watching Singletary bitching at the officials -- as if it were wholly their fault that his team commited the infractions.  By the way, it almost seems funny to see Singletary accusing someone else of being incompetent.

On to the Tampa Bay Bucs!

I'd like to make a few comments about the Carolina game, then focus on what I consider to be more important matters.

The Carolina game --

We could beat the offense up something fierce, and I'm sure most of you will, so I'm going to look at the defense.  How did our guys do versus Carolina's other opponents this season?  Well, let's take a look:

Carolina's per-game offense vs. others --  13 first downs, 236 total net yards, 135 net yards passing

Carolina's offense vs. Niners --                  22 first downs, 379 total net yards, 303 net yards passing

Hey, but our guys made Matt Moore look like a star:

Per-game averages vs. others --  53% of passes completed for 163 YPG, .4 TD/game, QB Rating = 57.5

Moore's stats vs. Niners --            68% of passes completed for 308 yards, 2 TDs, QB Rating = 96.4

And ... they made two ROOKIE receivers (NOT Steve Smith) look like stars:

Gettis -- 6th-round pick from Baylor

Per-game averages vs. others --  2 catches for 29.8 yards

Gettis vs. Niners --                       8 catches for 125 yards and 2 TDs

LaFell -- 3rd-round pick from LSU

Per-game averages vs. others --  1 catch for 20.8 yards

LaFell vs. Niners --                       6 catches for 91 yards

Good work, guys!  Greg: WTF??

But we made up for it on offense, right?  Well, NO.

Anthony Davis -- whiff / sack / Alex out; false start; another sack.  By the way, Carolina's RT, an undrafted 2nd-year free agent from Kentucky, starting his first pro game, looked infinitely better than Davis.

Vernon Davis -- slow in routes, holding penalty, no effort to catch pass when wide open.

I could go on and on about the offense, but why bother?

Regarding special teams, nice to have Delanie back on KO coverage.

Season-to-Date Performance --

As depressing as the Carolina game was, I find other issues far more distressing.  Specifically, the overall performance level of the ENTIRE TEAM, its lack of effort, and lack of focus.  Which, to me, all boils down to one basic thing ... poor coaching.  Well, OK smart ass, what do you mean by that?  Glad you asked.

Let's start with overall performance -- offense, defense, and special teams.  If you look at about 25+ categories of NFL performance statistics (total yards, rushing, passing, receiving, first downs, 3rd-down conversions, sacks, interceptions, kicking, punting, returns, penalties, ad nauseium) season-to-date, comparing the Niners to their opponents, the Niners have been out-performed in EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY except THREE:

Receiving Yards per game -- 232 yards (Niners) versus 227 (Opponents)

Fumbles by Receivers -- 2 (Niners) versus 3 (Opponents)

Average Return per Kickoff -- 22.5 (Niners) versus 21.3 (Opponents)

Andy Lee?  He out-kicked his opponents in gross yards per punt (46.1 versus 44.8), but the punt coverage team gave it back -- net yards per punt 39.9 (Niners) versus 40.8 (Opponents).

What do you mean a lack of effort?  Well, let's look at some other statistics:

Our opponents have forced 9 fumbles and have recovered 6 for a 67% turnover rate.

The Niners have forced 4 fumbles and have recovered 1 for a 25% recovery rate.

Is this an indication of a lack of effort?  Or a lack of emphasis?  Or a lack of coaching?

Now we get to my favorite topic -- penalties.  Because it is, for the most part, simply a lack of focus and/or concentration.  You just have to engage your brain!  In yesterday's Carolina game the Niners had 275% more penalties than the Panthers -- 11 versus 4.  And for 231% more penalty yards than the Panthers -- 81 versus 35.  Yeah but, that was unusual, wasn't it?  Not really!  Did you know that season-to-date the Niners are the fourth most penalized team in the NFL?  Only Oakland (surprise!), Detroit, and Philly are worse, and not by much.  Season-to-date, the Niners have 50% more penalties than their opponents -- 57 (Niners) versus 38 (Opponents).  And, those penalties are for 55% more penalty yards than the opponents -- 485 (Niners) versus 314.  So, the Niners are AVERAGING MORE THAN 8 PENALTIES PER GAME.

Yeah but, these guys are young and they will get better with experience, right?  Well, NO, not yet.  Here are the number of penalties on the Niners in their first seven games:  8, 5 (better), 6, 6 (ah, leveling off but still too high), 10 (what?), 11, 11 (NO!!!).

Is it any wonder that we're 1-6?  And I thought that it couldn't get worse than when we had Nolan!

I need another drink!

In light of the Niners 1-5 record, the uphill battle to even win the division after having such high expectations, and the ongoing issues with penalties and turnovers (which I attribute largely to poor coaching) and too-frequent confusion during games, I have decided to hire myself to replace Jed York.  After a good deal of thought, I have come to the following conclusions and decisions:

1.  The existing coaching staff is ill equiped to lead/direct this team to achieve their full capabilities.  I love Mike Singletary as a human being and I loved him as a great player; but, IMO being a good motivational leader is insufficient qualification to succeed as an NFL head coach.  I accept full blame for putting Mike into his current untenable position.  We must have a head coach with strong qualifications and experience on the offensive side of the ball, the strong ability to teach the game, and the knowledge to manage on-field issues without doubt or confusion.  Further, this individual must demand the same level of competence from all members of his coaching staff.

2.  While I would like to retain certain members of the current coaching staff (primarily Mike Solari, Ray Brown, Tom Rathman, Jerry Sullivan, Jim Tomsula, and Duane Carlisle) I think it only fair to allow a new head coach to select his own staff.  Accordingly, I will suggest that these coaches be considered for employment on the new coaching staff, the final decision will be that of the new head coach.

3.  I would like to see Trent Baalke continue to focus on personnel evaluation and selection; however, I feel the need to add an experienced General Manager, someone who can effectively oversee and coordinate the personnel, contract, and coaching activities of the team.  Ideally this individual would have experience in and/or appreciation for the Forty Niners history and tradition.

Accordingly, I have decided to relieve Mike Singletary of his head coaching position at the end of the current season -- regardless of the team's record for 2010.

Further, if he will accept the position, I have decided to hire Steve Young as our new Senior Vice President and General Manager.  After acquainting himself with the team's current circumstances, I have asked Steve to document his view of the appropriate criteria for evaluating head coaching candidates.  Once those criteria are finalized, I will ask Steve to develop a list of the best candidates that we should consider based upon those criteria.  While I reserve the right to provide input to this process, the final decision of selecting the new head coach will be Steve's.

 

Now, as avid fans and my consultants, what are your views of the decisions, process, and GM selection?

 

P.S.  If I were in Steve's chair, and if he would accept the position, I would seriously consider hiring Jim Harbaugh as our new head coach because he has all of the attributes that I would be looking for in a HC.

I took my usual dozen pages of notes while watching last night's game.  But I'll restrain myself and try to keep the volume down to a reasonable read.

THE GOOD

1.  Alex Smith -- probably his best game ever as a Niner; several absolutely GREAT throws; he can be a very good QB when he gets adequate protection.

2.  The OL -- especially the rookies; also, Snyder's best game in a long time.

3.  Frank Gore -- strong performance except for the INT off his hands.

4.  Josh Morgan -- probably his best game ever; he gets better with each outing, I think a function of his self-confidence.

5.  Justin Smith -- is simply a beast!

 

IMPROVING

1.  "Play call communication" -- Alex using a wrist band seemed to work MUCH BETTER.



I CAN'T MAKE UP MY MIND ... AND I'M BECOMING SCHIZOPHRENIC ABOUT IT!

1.  Jimmy Raye's play calling --

     On the minus side, I look at the first ten play calls of the game (first three "drives"):

          Gore up middle; Gore up middle; center over Alex's head (presumedly a pass called?); kick; Gore up middle; Gore up middle; Westbrook in wildcat up the middle for no gain; kick; a PASS on first down (although it was a jail break with Alex running for his life); Gore up middle; in summary -- 10 plays: 6 runs up the middle for little gain, a safety on a bad center, one pass and two punts; and, zero creativity!  At this point, if you're Alex, you've got to be pissed!

     On the plus side, considering the entire game, Raye's run / pass distribution was better than it has been in some time -- 45% run / 55% pass -- Alex 72% completion ratio.

     On the other hand:  he used Westbrook in one play, made little use of Crabtree, and threw mostly to the TEs and RBs.

     On the other other hand:  they gained 417 yards in total offense.

THE UGLY

1.  Poor special teams play (with some exceptions like Mays as a gunner).

A poor kick after the safety -- New Orleans starts their first drive on their own 46; kickoff returns -- poor average return yardage; holding on opening kickoff (costing 25 net yards); punt returns -- fumble on their own 14 and penalties; kickoff coverage -- NO return to their own 39; punt coverage -- Bush returns punt for 41 yards.

2.  Our old friend ... poor clock management, again!

3rdQ, after NO TD and then NO kickoff -- delay of game!  Absolutely unbelievable!  Net result:  start with 1st and 15 and end with 3 and out.  This is inexcusable!  I couldn't help but wonder what Gruden was thinking at this moment.

4thQ, 2 minutes left, down by 8 points, and we have NO time-outs left!

3.  Moran Norris.  I've beat this one to death -- nothing more to add.

 

THE BAD

1.  Self-inflicted wounds!  two fumbles, two INTs, a safety, missed blocks and missed tackles.

2.  Although the defense generally played very well, there were two glaring difficulties:

a.  The total inability to defend the screen pass and/or the drag pass to the TE; this has been an ongoing problem for a LONG TIME.  Why can't we learn how to play a screen or drag?  IF we could learn to just be average at this we would immediately become one of the top two defenses in the NFL!  There were MANY examples, but here are just a few:

Q1 -- 18-yard screen pass to fullback, totally uncovered; Q1 -- Bush beats Willis badly for a NO TD; on NO's game-winning drive, two screen passes to Thomas for 8- and 14- yards; for the game, Thomas caught 8 passes for 57 yards, all screens!

b.  The total collapse on NO's game-winning drive -- we knew they had to throw and they still completed three critical passes and on only one of those was the coverage decent.  What the hell happened?

 

THE CONCLUSION

No surprise!  New Orleans didn't beat the Niners, the Niners beat the Niners!  The Niners outplayed the Saints on both offense and defense; New Orleans was far superior on special teams.

Turnovers --

Two fumbles at critical times and locations; two INTs, only one of which should have occured; a safety on a bad snap.

Turnover opportunities not cashed in --

Lawson has INT thrown right to him, but drops the ball; Bush fumbles a punt, but recovers with two Niners nearby.

 

A very, very entertaining game, well played except for the turnovers, but also a painful outcome once again.

I am responding to the poll in this manner because I have more than just a few "comments".

Before retiring, I spent the last 20 years of my career as the CFO of several publicly-traded technology companies.  I'd like to think that I know a thing of two about managing people, managing public perception, and managing communication with the financial press.  I believe that I can relate to what Singletary is going through right now.  Sorry, don't mean to pound my chest, but wanted to establish some credibility concerning facing some of the team's issues.

While I don't particularly like the yes/no, black/white poll format (NOTHING is ever all black or all white -- rather, EVERYTHING is some shade of grey), I voted "NO", I don't approve of Mike's handling of his job RIGHT NOW.  There are a number of positions that he has taken that I definitely agree with; however, there are a number that I strongly disagree with.  On balance, FOR RIGHT NOW, I believe that the later are dominating the situation.  It would take a complete essay to discuss all of these, so, in the interest of sparing you that pain, let me comment on just a few.

Continue reading this post »

First, congratulations to Pete Carroll and his staff -- they had their team ready to play and they executed better than the Niners in all three phases of the game.  Although it doesn't have anything to do with it, they deserved to win the game.

I have been a 49ers fan for a LONG time -- 60 years.  I have lived through many iterations of "the lean years."  I have to say that today's game, a 31-6 loss to Seattle, was the single most disappointing game that I seen (and I've seen them all) in the past ten years, maybe longer.  Why?  It's not that the Niners lost the game -- they've lost many games.  It's because that, while having superior talent (somewhat new to them), they didn't even compete -- they were outplayed (dominated) by Seattle, a majority of whose players were brand new to the team, in all three phases of the game.  And, it wasn't just a few players who were responsible, but virtually the entire team.  Seattle didn't win the game, although they did take advantage of the opportunities that they were given, but rather the Niners gave them the game by their poor play.  My comments below come from notes that I took while watching the game.

Continue reading this post »

IMO, the 2010 Niners' roster is the strongest that we have had in at least 10 years, and maybe a lot longer than that!  So, given the roster as it stands today, how did we get there?  Glad you asked.  Here is an analysis:

Returning veterans from 2009 roster -- 64%  (34)

     On Offense ...............  14

     On Defense ...............  17

     On Special Teams .....   3

Free Agents / Trades ---------------------  13%  (7)

     On Offense ................    4

     On Defense ................   3

Practice Squad Promotions -------------   8%  (4)

     On Offense ..................  2

     On Defense .................  2

Rookie Draftees ------------------------------  15%  (8)

     On Offense ................... 5

     On Defense .................. 3

 

I love the fact that the roster upgrades came primarily from youth (4 + 8 + 1 rookie free agent = 13/53 = 25%) rather than veteran free agent signings (6/53 = 11%).  And, I fully expect that next year at least six veterans on this years' roster will be replaced by 2011 draftees and/or selected young free agents.  Is there any doubt that we are moving in the right direction?  I don't think so!