Lebron James wants to be a NBA Champion.

Most commentators see James going to New York.  At least one says he well stay in Cleveland (or should stay).

But what teams would give James a legitimate chance of winning a championship?

First, if he wins with the Cleveland team he has right now, then I'd say he could win anywhere.

If James, and Cleveland don't win this year, then where would James go?  I am not going to address the possibility of getting personnel that might make it work in Cleveland, but what teams have the personnell James needs to win now.

Let's start with the Lakers.  A proven champion without Lebron.  A big market team with deep pockets.  Always willing to make a big deal.  Everyone feels this would be a good team for James.  The lakers have two good post players, a great two guard, a capable if not outstanding point guard, and a very good defensive small forward who can score in streaks.  James would be a definite upgrade at small forward.

What other teams are similar to the Lakers?

Orlando.  Two post players.  A very good shooting guard.  An excellent point guard.  Weak at small forward.  Enter Lebron.

Portland.  Two post players.  A very good shooting guard.  A good, capable point guard. Deep at small forward/guard but Lebron would be a definite improvement.

These teams have the talent, two have the market, and Portland has a deep pocket (Allen).  James wouldn't have to worry that the teams listed would have to rebuild or be just another Cleveland--plenty of good players but not enough to bring home a trophy.  These teams have very good defensive centers, good scorers at power foward and shooting guard, good if not excellent point guards, good to adequate small forwards (Portland may have very good small forwards as they become more experienced) and they don't have to acquire additional pieces to go with the addition of Lebron.

It seems to me if Lebron James wants to win a championship, and team skill is the main criterion for choosing a team, then the following teams would be the best destination for James:

1.  Los Angeles Lakers
2.  Orland Magic
3.  Portland Trailblazers

Howard Oden

Games 82 66

MP 2670 1429

FG 352 211

FT 277 152

ORB 287 185

DRB 536 288

TRB 823 473

PTS 981 574

RR/M .308 .331

O'Neal's first season (81 games):  3071 MP, 1122 TRB, .365 RR/M

Howard (career)                             : 14742 MP, 5160 TRB, .350 RR/M

From these statistics it is clear that Oden is statistically about on par with Howard.  Oden appears to have benefited from the year in college because his first year rebound rate per minute is greater than Howard's rate after the first season of Howard's career, Shaq's year in college probably helped him too.  Oden and Shaq may have higher initial rates than howard because of better fundamentals learned during a year in college basketball.

While Howard's career rebounding rate per minute has climbed from his first year,  Shaq's declined to a .316 rebounds per minute, however after the first five seasons (13105 MP) Shaq's RR/M was .330 the same rate as Oden.

The question I pose to the blazer edge community:  would having a point guard like Hardaway or Nelson increase Oden's minutes on the floor?

Does Miller fill the bill?

What is the goal of the Portland Trailblazers?

Wining the NBA championship.

How do the trailblazers win the NBA championship?

With intelligence.

Ah, wait, you say.  We need players, we need hall of fame caliber players.  This may be true.  It certainly makes it easier from a skills standpoint.

But in reality, championships are won and lost with what’s between the ears.

Conventional wisdom said the Sixers should have beaten the Blazers in 76-77.  The same wisdom said Seattle should have beaten Denver in the 90’s, last year Cleveland was supposed to dominate.  It was the ability to adapt, to make the right decision and not the wrong decision that makes a champion, skill only gets you to the dance.

The trailblazers this season are showing some growing pains.  They want more than a good record, a playoff qualifying record.  The blazers want to vie for a championship and this is going to take an investment.  An investment in failure.  To fail is to see where one needs to improve, change or redirect.  This is never easy.  It’s counter intuitive.  Success is supposed to be the result of incrementally successful steps.

But the best improvement comes with failure, because failure will teach you to be flexible, adaptable and cooperative.  Without failure you can’t see your faults and either eliminate them or accommodate them.

That’s why I think this season we may not see an “improvement” but rather a mental gut check that will show the players that attitude as well as skill is important in the pursuit of success.

                                                   TRB      TRB     DRB  DRB     ORB  ORB
                                                                 OPP                 OPP               OPP
Without Oden   2007-2008   3339   3422   2438   2465      901   957
With       Oden    2008-2009 3420   2976   2360   2190     1060   786


Greg Oden's impact I think can be seen in these statistics.  Clearly his rebounding has helped the Blazers defensively, limiting the opponents scoring opportunities.  It is also clear that the Blazers shot better (.448 in 0708 and .465 in 0809) making fewer rebounding chances available to opponents.  It would be interesting to see if the blazers shooting percentage went down during the games he didn't play.

Does any body else have some statistical info to contribute?

Management

The Turkoglu Affair seems to highlight the inexperience of the Blazer management when it comes to augmenting and maintaining a playoff caliber team.

First there is the poor reaction to the Darius Miles reality.  It feels like management didn't plan for an unfavorable result.

Second, the Blazer's seemed playoff bound for some time during the season, but when July 1 rolled around management doesn't seem very organized--i.e. they seemed to sight their lasers on a particular guy rather than court several at a time (what was the hurry?).

Third, management seems determined to get a veteran, any serviceable veteran.  Why?  Is there something amiss in the coaching staff?  Why can't Nate bring along the young guys? 

I don't sense a plan that is as good as the rebuilding plan ( or has luck just made rebuilding look good).

Players

I don't see anything yet that alarms me.  The team appears to have chemistry which is a difficult thing to achieve when a team is as young as the Blazer's.  But this coming season will be a bellweather for many players (I'm thinking of marked improvement by Batum, Oden, Bayless, and Fernandez.  If other players improve as well--it won't hurt my feelings).

Team

The Blazers are a .600 team (~50 wins).  That means they should fall between 45-37 and 55-27.  I've put a +- of 5 games because a team might have a run of bad luck or good luck that will either not reflect the ability of the team or inflate the ability it actually has.

To get to 60 wins, I think that would make the blazers an elite team, means we need to add some scoring and some defense against quick, penetrating guards.  60 wins means we should expect the blazer's to make it out of the first round.  55 or fewer wins means that Portland might not yet have the horses to get out of the first round.

Finally

I don't want anyone to think I'm not hoping for a world championship.  I watched every minute of the 76-77 blazer championship run ( or at least looking back at it it seems like I did).  I'd love to watch the team succeed again.  But I want the team to be good, to have excellent players.  To get that, especially in today's NBA, patience should be exercised.  When this core group of players gets good enough to make a run, we'll have to turn down calls from players who want to be part of the Blazers.

Two for LaRue!!

Greg Oden's main offensive move is being a receiver in the pick and roll.  On occasion though he does get deep in the paint and Portland has had difficulty getting Oden the ball in a timely fashion.  Hedo enhances Oden's offense.  Why?  Because Hedo is a good midrange shooter it pressures defenses when he handles the ball and this makes it easier for Hedo to loft a pass to Oden; second, Hedo's height allows him to see over most small forwards increasing the chances that Oden can get the ball when he needs it:   when Oden is right under the basket.

In addition, Hedo's ability to execute the pick and roll would have created better matchups for Roy (no small forward guarding him).

Hedo's decline of the Blazer's bid for his talents highlights what the Blazer coaches and management see as a weakness in the Blazer's skill set:  the ability to operate the pick and roll.  Roy is fine but teams will (did) use taller small forwards to defend the pick and roll making it difficult to execute the play successfully, and increasing the wear and tear on Roy by having to do all of the playmaking.

So it seems the Blazer's management doesn't think that Outlaw or Batum can effectively run the pick and roll.  Why else acquire Hedo?

Win now?  This is not a realistic goal.  Remember, while the 76-77 blazers were the youngest team ever to win the championship, that team had experience from top to bottom from good to great collegiate programs.  The Blazers have guys who are still years away from having that kind of experience (basketball and otherwise).  So acquiring Hedo to win now was not the goal of the trailbalzers.  

Did Portland want to see if salary could overcome geography?  I think they got their answer:  not in Hedo's case.  Will Oden, Aldridge eventually bolt to other locations when their contracts are up?  In spite of monetary rewards for staying in Portland.

Will McMillan stay if Portland has difficulty in getting veteran talent?  McMillan was apparently sold on Hedo's abilities (perhaps that's why Portland management sent him to talk to Hedo in Orlando) and McMillan has complained of a lack of veterans on the Blazer's.

I think Blazer management just got some valuable experience in regards to building a playoff, and championship, team, a team that makes it out of the first round on a regular basis.  Clearly rebuilding has been a success for Blazer management, now they have to learn how to manage a successful, winning, team.  That appears to be tougher to learn than rebuilding a playoff qualifying team.

It strikes me with this year's draft (2009) that the consistent early entry of players has caught the league in a basketball assessment gap because there has been too little development of players due to their lack of playing experience in college basketball.  Thus the draft has been an exercise in risk avoidance rather than risk taking.  That's why some teams have been hoarding certain positions-- if one of the players chosen meets with expectations then the draft choice has an economic benefit, need is not a consideration when risk dominates reward.

This is probably more true now that economic uncertainty hangs over professional sports in general. 

The salary cap forces teams to eventually make draconian decisions considering their rosters.  That's why a big market team like the Lakers can land Pau Gasol for essential for peanuts.  This is because those players deemed essential to making the playoffs are paid so much that there is no possibility of a wage/skill structure that makes consistent team performance possible- a yo-yo pattern develops: a few years of winning basketball followed by a few years of rebuilding.

The future for the NBA appears to be a seesaw between parity or inbalance. 

How can a more league wide competitive system be developed?

So I don't have to read all of the posts, they are all good, what position player do the fans think the blazers need the most?  Should the need be satisfied through the draft or through a trade?  And should the emphasis be offensive or defensive?

My interest here is to see if the blazer fan community has a consensus on what the blazers need to do to maintain or improve the roster and to see if that perception is in agreement with Blazer management.

It seems that this years draft for the Blazer's depends on what the team plans to do in terms of player development, especially in regards to Bayless, Batum, and Oden.

If the Blazers want to concentrate on improving the game of these players they might not want to move anybody until sometime into the season.  The Magic showed what happens when a player's game is immature: a team can't win it all.

It seems to me that these players should start and prove themselves as starters in the league, even if it means that the Blazers may miss the playoffs.