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Top Prospects, part 3: The fringe pitchers
Identifying fringe pitching prospects is a more difficult job than identifying fringe position players, mainly because I think just about any high-performing minor league bullpen guy could be considered fringe. Nevertheless, here is my attempt at identifying guys who, like the previous list, could be or have been interesting, but don't quite meet my standards for being a legit prospect right now. (ages are as of 7/1/09, levels represent the highest level they have seen more than a coffee cup of action)
Paolo Espino (22.5, high-A) - Espino was originally part of the Lake County 2007 cohort that included Kelvin De La Cruz and Jeanmar Gomez. After a few injury issues and some shuffling in and out of the rotation the past two years, Espino emerged with a pretty solid season in the Kinston rotation in 2009. Espino showed a strong K-rate, above average control, and stayed healthy the whole season. A little old given his injury history, he might be a sleeper candidate if he performs well in the Akron rotation next season.
| P Espino | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 108.1 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 6.9 | 25.7 | 45.8 | 22 | 4.77 |
| 2008 | 66.2 | 3.77 | 5.54 | 7.7 | 22.8 | 47.4 | 9 | 0.99 |
| 2009 | 134.2 | 3.68 | 3.01 | 6.5 | 21.2 | 40.6 | 27 | 4.17 |
Josh Tomlin (24.7, AA) - Tomlin is a favorite of mine. After working mostly out of the bullpen in 2007 and 2008, Tomlin took his control skills into the Akron rotation this season. His excellent control remained true to form, and even though he lost some of his swing and miss abilities with the move to the rotation, he still maintained an excellent K:BB ratio of 4.7. His problem is HRs...having allowed 21 this year. Probably no more than a depth starter/bullpen swingman at the most, but if he figures out how to keep the ball in the park...who knows.
| J Tomlin | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 131.1 | 3.97 | 3.36 | 5.6 | 19.7 | 44.9 | 24 | 2.86 |
| 2008 | 109.2 | 2.88 | 3.04 | 4.0 | 26.4 | 42.0 | 45 | 3.84 |
| 2009 | 145.0 | 3.51 | 4.16 | 4.5 | 20.8 | 36.4 | 13 | 4.06 |
Bryan Price (22.0, high-A) - Part of the Victor Martinez package from the Red Sox, Price doesn't have any obvious red flags. He gets a good number of Ks, has pretty good control, was durable in 2009, and gives up a few more HRs than you might like, but not an atrociously high number. What keeps him from being an interesting prospect at the moment is simply that the sum of the parts isn't quite enough. Another candidate to begin the season in Akron's rotation, a strong performance could easily make him a guy to watch.
| B Price | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 40.0 | 3.14 | 3.82 | 5.6 | 23.9 | 52.4 | 20 | 2.43 |
| 2009 | 132.2 | 3.76 | 4.75 | 7.2 | 22.3 | 43.0 | 21 | 4.01 |
Yohan Pino (25.5, AAA)
16 comments | 2 recs |
Pavano and Betancourt accept arbitration
I guess we don't have to think about either of these two re-joining the team right away
7 days ago
APV
6 comments
0 recs
Top Prospects, part 2: The fringe position players
I call these guys fringe guys because at the moment, their performance does not really warrant status as legitimate prospects. Some of them might be, some of them once were and might be again, but they all have substantive issues that cannot be ignored.
Jordan Brown (25.0, AAA): What can I say? Jordan Brown is defensively limited to positions that require substantive offensive performance. Offensively he lacks power and requires exceptional contact in order to be effective. 2009 was his best season and his numbers were certainly worth noticing, including a career high ISO of nearly .200 (which is a good barometer for decent power). But he also had a career low BB% (6.6) and saw his BB/K number drop for the second straight season. Jordan Brown is going to have to take advantage of whatever playing time he gets in 2010 and show that he can make above average, line-drive contact skills against major league pitching if he wants to have anything more than a journeyman major league career.
| J. Brown | aOPS | BB/K | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 833 | 1.125 | 63 | 4.88 |
| 2008 | 746 | 0.522 | 5 | 4.43 |
| 2009 | 874 | 0.469 | 11 | 5.57 |
John Drennen (22.9, AA): Drennen had one of the more sizeable bounce back years for a position player in the Indians system. Once a promising young centerfield prospect with power, Drennen now looks to be more of a Jason Michaels/4th OFer kind of candidate if he can carry through with his 2009 season. Being a potential above average corner outfielder defensively, together with having just turned 23, give Drennen a little more leeway to work through his offensive limitations (strike out prone). Drennen needs an excellent season in Akron, presumably with a successful promotion to Columbus at some point, to be worth paying too much attention to.
| J. Drennen | aOPS | BB/K | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 739 | 0.510 | -17 | 4.42 |
| 2008 | 722 | 0.630 | -1 | 3.13 |
| 2009 | 821 | 0.478 | 0 | 5.38 |
Abner Abreu (19.7, low-A): Abreu is an exciting prospect. Or at least he could be if he didn’t have one of the worst contact skills in the system. There is no doubt he has a bat with huge power potential, serving as the 19-year old offensive core of the Lake County team for the first half of the 2009 season. But he had more than 6 times as many Ks as BBs, and only walked just a hair over 4% of the time. That raises serious concerns about his future development against better pitching. Plus he missed the last third of the season with a badly separated shoulder. Still under 20, I will be rooting hard for Abreu, but there are issues he needs to work through to be considered a serious prospect.
| A. Abreu | aOPS | BB/K | Net | ProS |
| 2009 | 771 | 0.309 | -44 | 3.00 |
Adam Abraham (22.3, low-A):
18 comments | 0 recs |
Top Prospects, part 1: The Injured
Today's piece is the first in a series which will outline my view of the Indians top prospects. As a preface, my rankings are based on a combination of age, position, performance and level. I am not a scout so I am not projecting how their tools will develop, but rather making an assessment based on how they have performed thus far in their pro careers relative to their peers and with respect to their defensive position. Because of my emphasis on pro performance, none of the 2009 draftees will appear here, although certainly a guy like Alex White is one of the Indians "top prospects". Instead of a traditional numerical ranking I will provide a categorical breakdown of the Indians prospects, beginning with some of the significant players who missed significant playing time in 2009 because of injury. Most of these guys, if healthy, would have appeared somewhere later in the series. But as for any prospect, injuries are particularly problematic - limiting opportunity for development, diminishing the potential ceiling of skills, and wasting time on their prospect clock - making them a strong negative for each of these guys.
1. Adam Miller
2009: 0 innings pitched
2008: 28.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 4.10 aFIP, 16.4 K%, 9.8 BB%, 54.5 GB%
Adam Miller just turned 25 yesterday, but in baseball years he might as well be Satchel Paige. After a brilliant 2006 campaign in Akron in which Miller established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, Miller has been one injury after another. The most recent setback an unprecedented operation to repair the pulley system in his middle finger, the most important finger in a power pitcher like Miller. Given the nature of the operation and length of recovery, there is little reason to think Miller will be appearing on the mound in Cleveland anytime soon, if ever. Instead of being the heir to CC Sabathia, Miller instead likely represents a lasting cautionary tale and paradox regarding young pitchers. On one hand, Miller is the perfect example of getting a pitcher to the majors as quickly as possible. In August of 2006 the Indians could have brought up the then 21-year old and given him a shot at major league hitters. His stuff was probably good enough to get by, but they instead let him develop. But at the same time Miller was just 21 at the time. Because he was drafted as an 18-year old high school senior, the Indians were still in the process of stretching out Miller's innings. In some ways Miller developed too quickly, from too young a starting point to know what was the best approach. I feel as if the Indians draft team keeps a picture of Miller on their draft board just to remind them of the perils of drafting high school pitchers.
2. Kelvin De La Cruz
2009: 19.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 2.11 aFIP, 29.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 32.0 GB%
2008: 130.0 IP, 2.98 ERA, 3.79 aFIP, 24.5 K%, 11.2 BB%, 52.9 GB%
13 comments | 0 recs |
Carl Willis goes to Seattle
He is taking over the job of minor league pitching coordinator. I don't know if this is a promotion or a demotion, but I'm surprised a guy with back to back Cy Youngs in his coaching belt is not getting hired as a major league pitching coach.
19 days ago
APV
4 comments
0 recs
Minor league free agents
Baseball America gives the complete list. No one exiting coming from the Indians organization, but I'm sure the Indians will grab a few of these guys for the Columbus roster eventually.
27 days ago
APV
3 comments
0 recs
Another 40-man opinion
Tony Lastoria makes his 40-man roster predictions prior to this Friday's deadline. Tony does a lot of wonderful minor league stuff but roster construction is not something I tend to agree with him on and this is no different. His prediction:
"Seven players are added: Jordan Brown, Jason Donald, Jeanmar Gomez, Chuck Lofgren, Matt McBride, Yohan Pino, and Nick Weglarz. If an eighth is rostered, it is Carlos Rivero, and if only six are rostered then Lofgren is not."
28 days ago
APV
134 comments
0 recs
Bullpen bingo
The 2009 Cleveland Indians had a horrendous bullpen. Part of this was due to a lack of legitimate replacement options in Columbus and Akron, necessitating the use of guys like Aquino, Chulk, Herges and Swindle. Seemingly related to this was an organizational decision to transition a number of upper-level, second-tier minor league pitchers from starting rotation roles to bullpen roles. Many minor league pitchers who can't cut it in the rotation end up in the bullpen, but the movement last year in the Indians organization seemed to suggest something more than the natural development of minor league pitchers. Each of the four pitchers listed below started a majority of their appearances in 2008, and made most of their appearances last season out of the bullpen. They are also all candidates to begin 2010 in Columbus and are therefore fair game for the major league bullpen at some point.
Zach Putnam was perhaps the most high profile starter to reliever transition. Drafted in the 5th round of the 2008 draft, Putnam was a candidate to either hit or pitch, but made his debut with Cleveland as a starter with an effective four-pitch arsenal. The Indians made the decision to move him to the bullpen to accelerate his development in the organization and perhaps add a little life to his mid-90s fastball. He ended up spending most of his 2009 in Akron (56.2 innings, 24 innings at Kinston) with reasonable success. He showed pretty decent K-rates (23-24%), ok walk-rates (7.3 in Akron, 5.2 in Kinston), and great HR numbers (2 in Akron, 1 in Kinston) thanks to a solid GB-rate (53%). His adjusted FIP for the season, 2.89, suggests the potential Putnam shows after just his first full season.
Frank Herrmann might be the first in this group to see time in Cleveland. Herrmann entered the 2009 season as a reliable low-K, low-BB, innings eater starter. After making 26 starts in three consecutive seasons and beginning the season with 5 starts in Akron, Cleveland promoted Herrmann to Columbus and moved him to the bullpen, where he made 44 appearances across the remainder of the season. The result was that Herrmann produced nearly identical numbers as a reliever as he did as a starter. Low K-rates (~16%), excellent BB-rates (4.1%), and, like Putnam, excellent HR numbers (3 in 76 innings). Herrmann isn't your typical exciting reliever given his underwhelming stuff, but I think he is an ideal long-reliever. He can pitch multiple innings, come into a game and throw strikes, and not give up homeruns. I think he'll be in Cleveland at some point during 2010.
Steven Wright was possibly the best reliever in Akron's impressive 2009 bullpen. After starting 55 games in 2007 and 2008, Wright pitched more than 81 innings, mostly out of the pen. Like Herrmann, the transition to the bullpen seemingly made no difference for Wright. His K-rate (19.2%) and BB-rate (5.6%), both pretty decent, were virtually unchanged from his 2008 numbers. Wright topped both Putnam and Herrmann in only giving up a single HR in 2009. Wright is probably the best sleeper candidate for the 2010 bullpen.
Carlton Smith is probably better known as the brother of former failed Tribe prospect Corey Smith, than as a prospect in his own right. And his 2008 numbers; 26 starts in Kinston, 13.1% K-rate, 5.3% BB-rate, 4.37 ERA, probably wouldn't do much to change that. But in 2009 he switched to Akron's bullpen where his K-rate went down (12.3%) and BB-rate went up (7.1%). The reason I list him here though is that 60% of his balls in play were GBs. That's a good number, and one which, if Smith can harness effectively, could make him a valuable situational reliever.
4 comments | 0 recs |
Weglarz has surgery
via Tony Lastoria, apparently Weglarz had a metal rod inserted into his leg to stabilize the area around the stress facture which has been bothering him since August
about 1 month ago
APV
18 comments
0 recs
Indians hire Ramon Pena as Latin American director
"More than 40 players signed by or under Pena have reached the Majors, including prominent closers Francisco Cordero and Fernando Rodney out of the Dominican Republic, starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens out of Curacao, utility man Omar Infante from Venezuela and outfielder Frank Catalanotto."
about 1 month ago
APV
26 comments
0 recs
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