SB Nation User Blog: APV

Early Weekend 6-Pack (7/2/09)

APV — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:51:56 -0000

It is a holiday weekend and I am still living quite a few hours in the future, so this week's edition of Early Weekend 6-Pack will be very early (with appropriately chosen beverage below).

1. Eric Wedge is in Hall of Fame company

In 2007, Eric Wedge coached the Indians to an impressive .593 winning percentage. Going into Thursday night’s game, the 2009 Indians are winning games at a less impressive .388 clip. If that .200+ drop-off in win% in a 2-year span seems impressive, that’s because it is. I looked at managerial records over the past 50 seasons, and it turns out this feat has only been equaled once. This is obviously a difficult list to get on, because as that gap might suggest, you have to go from coaching a very good team (~.600) to a very bad team (<.400) in a short amount of time. Given roster sizes and player movement restrictions, even in the era of free agency there tends to be a lot of continuity on a roster from one year to the next, so such a rapid change doesn’t often overcome the forces of inertia. Quite a few managers have come close. Dusty Baker did it in three years between 1993 (.636) and 1996 (.429) with the Giants. Phil Garner did it in three with the Astros, 2004 (.649) to 2007 (.443). Cito Gaston did it in three following the Jays last WS title in 1992. Tony LaRussa is good enough to have had such a drop over a 3-year time span twice, one with the White Sox in the mid-80s and again with Oakland in the early 90s. A few others got fired too early in the third season to count (i.e. Gene Lamont, Buddy Bell, Don Zimmer). But only one other coach has done it in 2-years, and that is HOFer Sparky Anderson, who saw the Tigers go from a .605 team in 1987 to a .364 team by 1989. So Wedge is truly in the company of legends. Now there is one coach who has actually topped this, and accomplished the task in just a single season. I probably don’t need to remind you, but Jim Leyland coached the 1997 Marlins to a .568 record and the eventual World Series title, only to come back in 1998 and coach the AA Marlins to a pathetic .333 record.

2. But maybe the best is yet to come...

The Indians have over the past two decades had a tendency to be a strong second-half team. Indeed, 2007 (.595) and 2008 (.588) are the 12th and 13th best back-half W% for the team since WWII. And 2005 (.622) is actually 7th on that list. As you go through the years, those ‘80s teams were generally awful, first half and second. The ‘70s teams were not great, but tended to have decent second halves. The ‘60s teams, which were better, were strikingly bad late season teams and had a few epic fades (e.g. 1965 - tied for 1st on the 4th of July, 14 games over .500, played below .500 the second half of the season and fell to 5th place). And the golden era teams, 1948-1954, were just awesome all around. Here’s the complete top 10:

	Year	Rec	W%		Year	Rec	W%
1	1954	55-16	.775	7	2005	46-28	.622
2	1995	54-23	.701	8	1953	44-27	.620
3	1952	51-28	.646	9	1955	43-27	.614
4	1996	47-27	.635	10t	2000	46-30	.605
5	1948	52-30	.634	10t	1950	46-30	.605
6	1951	49-29	.628

3. More Matt LaPorta please

Speaking of records – here is the team’s record when different individuals have appeared in the game. The "best" record goes to Matt LaPorta, who in his brief stint in Cleveland, helped the team to a near .500 (6-7) record. Way to go Matt! The worst record title is shared by Travis Hafner (10-24) and Josh Barfield (5-12).

Shoppach	18-29	Peralta	28-42	Crowe	13-17
Martinez	29-49	Choo	31-47	LaPorta	6-7
Cabrera	21-35	Hafner	10-24	Dellucci	5-9
DeRosa	29-42	Garko	24-36	Gimenez	5-7
Francisco	26-42	Carroll	13-24	Barfield	5-12
Sizemore	23-34	Valbuena	14-23

4. The defense rests

It’s only the half-way point, but at least according to UZR, the Indians defense is on pace to being 51 runs worse than last year, helping make Cleveland one of the most underperforming teams in baseball. According to the numbers, these are the four biggest culprits:

Ben Francisco -6.9
Luis Valbuena -6.1 (split between SS and 2B pretty evenly)
Shin Soo Choo -3.6
Mark DeRosa -3.1 (although about +3 in the outfield, -6 in the infield)

The Indians best defenders so far; Jamey Carroll (+3.8) and Jhonny Peralta (+2.9). Note: This is just one metric for measuring defense and half a season, and for many of these guys less than that, is generally not considered a large enough sample to be particularly reliable. I'd be interested how these numbers match up with people's perspectives...I haven't seen enough games live to say.

5. Can I get two Wegz with that LaPorta?

The Indians full-season minor league teams all have three full months in the books. Matt LaPorta had the team’s best month of April (1.103), while Nick Weglarz beat off some stiff competition from a number of players to claim the best May (1.055) and June (1.007). There are a number of other high performers, of course. Carlos Santana has been steadily good all season. Jordan Brown and Andy Marte both had big Mays. Abner Abreu screamed back from a terrible April with months of May and June not far behind Weglarz before separating his shoulder. Lonnie Chisenhall has been solid.

6. The future looks different when you get there

One of the things Baseball America does every year when it produces its organizational top 10 lists is put together a mock-up of what the team’s lineup might look like 3 years in the future. Here is what, in November 2006, they projected as the Indians 2010 lineup:

Catcher – Matt McBride SP #1 – CC Sabathia

First Base – Victor Martinez SP #2 – Adam Miller

Second Base – Josh Barfield SP #3 – Jeremy Sowers

Third Base – Andy Marte SP #4 – Cliff Lee

Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta SP #5 – Jake Westbrook

Left Field – Trevor Crowe Closer – Tony Sipp

Center Field – Grady Sizemore

Right Field – Shin Soo Choo

DH – Travis Hafner

Ahh...back when the Indians future was so clear. I actually think they did a pretty good job with this. They correctly predicted Victor’s transition to first base, while being surprisingly optimistic about Jhonny staying at SS. They got the easy ones of course, Grady in center and Hafner at DH, but also pegged Choo in RF. McBride as catcher was obviously a fail...why people love that guy is something I don’t entirely understand. Barfield did, coming off a ~~great~~ good rookie year in San Diego, seem like a reasonably safe call. Marte was still one of baseball’s top prospects. Crowe...see McBride. They may very well have 40-60% of the starting rotation correct. Adam Miller, more optimism. I’m not sure why they thought CC would both still be a #1 starter and still be with Cleveland.

It’s hard to pretend I don’t know what has happened since November 2006 and try to compare how good I thought this team would have been versus how good I think our projected 2010 team currently looks. It’s probably impossible to match my view of the above projected starting rotation (it is truly a dream world where Jake Westbrook is our #5 guy), but I think I like our offense better. Put LaPorta in for Crowe, Santana (at least by the end of 2010) in for McBride, shift Jhonny left and put Droobs and Valbuena up the middle...and I like that lineup a lot. The pitching, though...

via www.beerbeacon.com

Game Thread: June 19, 2009, part 2

APV — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 19:50:46 -0000

Hey look, they're playing baseball!

Who killed the Cleveland Indians? - part 4: Bernie Kosar and Lebron James

APV — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:27:27 -0000

Back in Tbilisi earlier than expected and might as well take advantage of my unexpected wireless connection to continue the investigation with a little remote location blogging. I have been off the trail for a few weeks, but the last two games have reawakened the scent. You might recall my previous inquiries (John Adams, Slider, Grit). Today's suspect isn't an individual, but a dynamic pair who serve as opposing towers in the Cleveland sports kingdom, Lebron James and Bernie Kosar. What could cause these two Cleveland sports icons to unite their collective skills in an insidious hit-job on our beloved Indians? I look into the case....

Suspect: Lebron James, Bernie Kosar

Suspicious Traits: Tantalizing, but limited success in the Cleveland sports arena. Yankees hat (Lebron)!? Connection to South Florida sports world (Kosar). And as to their connection, has has anyone ever seen a photo of these two together?

Weapon of Choice: Wobbly low-angled passes, powerfully quick charges to the basket, and hypnotic control of Cleveland sports base

Potential Alibi: None identified

Motive: Classic jealousy and quest for power. On one hand you have Bernie's late '80s dominance of the Cleveland sports scene, and on the other Lebron's current dominance of the 21st century. In the middle, the proud Cleveland Indians of '94-'01. Lebron clearly feels his playoff runs are being squelched not by a lack of complementary parts or poor coaching, but a weaning of fan support in the brutally extended NBA playoff schedule of May and June (what happened to that home court dominance?). Meanwhile, Bernie's attempts to negotiate his way into a position of power in the Browns organization by engaging in highly amusing, heavily slurred appearances in the broadcast booth during Browns preseason games is undermined by renewed interest in second half Tribe season comebacks. These two independent problems have brought together this duo for a common solution - kill the Tribe's season early and decisively.

Likelihood: Twice as likely

Up Next: Midges

Minor league depth chart

APV — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 20:33:11 -0000

Minor league depth chart

It is good to look at one of these every once in a while, and Tony does a good job of putting it together

RHP Hector Rondon threw a pitch that was described by the broadcaster as very slow and up and Akron...

APV — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 01:29:25 -0000

RHP Hector Rondon threw a pitch that was described by the broadcaster as very slow and up and Akron Pitching Coach Ruben Niebla shot out of the dugout followed by Manager Mike Sarbaugh and the trainer. After a very short discussion, Rondon was pulled from the game.

Tony Lastoria

Early Weekend 6-pack (6/4/09)

APV — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:54:01 -0000

This week's early weekend 6-pack will be considerably abbreviated owing to time constraints (see below), but here it is. My six favorite moments of the Tribe's season so far:

1. Cleveland 10, Yankees 2

April 16, inaugural opener for the new Yankees Stadium. A game in which everything went more or less like it was supposed to. Lee equalled CC Sabathia through 6 before the Indians offense unloaded on the Yankees and sent their fans home early. Classic.

2. Opening Day

So it turned out the game sucked - but Opening Day will pretty much make any top list I make every year simply because of what it is - the return of baseball, summer, hot dogs and beer outside, and all things good.

3. Cleveland 22, Yankees 4

Maybe the only good weekend the entire season, so far?

4. Eavesdropping on the bosses during spring training.

This one is admittedly a personal guilty pleasure. It might be even more interesting to eavesdrop on them these days...although probably less fun.

5. Matt LaPorta 2-run HR, May 4

In his second major league game, Matt LaPorta, much-hyped and critical for the future, hit a long HR to deep left off former Indians and current Blue Jay, Brian Tallet. Good work young(ish) man.

6. ???

The last one I'm leaving blank in the hopes that good things are yet to come. I take off Saturday for a 6-week stint in the far reaches of the internet hinterlands - meaning I'll pretty much be on a hiatus from LGT until mid-July. Keep the home fires burning while I'm gone and hopefully the situation will seem less dire when I return. I'm leaving the keys to the early weekend 6-pack around, though, so feel free to step in and fill the void while I'm gone. Until then, here's a whole display case of beer.

Betancourt heading to the DL

APV — Sun, 31 May 2009 20:59:51 -0000

Betancourt heading to the DL

Not unexpected after he left today's game

Yankees Preview

APV — Fri, 29 May 2009 21:51:26 -0000

Yankees Preview

Me talking with the folks from SNY.tv about the Indians for two minutes. Your chance to hear the voice behind the skull.

Who Killed the Cleveland Indians? - part 3: Grit

APV — Fri, 29 May 2009 20:03:37 -0000

The trail has gone cold. Rumors are beginning to percolate up from the gutter that maybe the Cleveland Indians season isn't dead. Maybe there are signs of life yet. I don't know, but I know that my quest for information must go on. So following up on John Adams and Slider, I'm looking into the grittiest of potential suspects - grit itself.

Suspect: Grit

Suspicious Traits: Abrasiveness, involvement with "grit pie", close association with Jason Michaels, Casey Blake, and Sal Fasano

Weapon of Choice: Mild to moderate skin abrasion

Potential Alibi: Grit has been decidedly absent on the field this year

Motive: Like the case against John Adams, if it is grit, I think it is manslaughter. Over the past several years we've come to love the grittiness we see on display in Cleveland. But maybe it has gone too far. Maybe too much grit is a bad thing. Travis Hafner's phantom shoulder problems?...maybe James Andrews didn't find anything structurally wrong - maybe he found grit. Fausto's lost control? Maybe in the grittiest outing in recent Tribe history (October 5, 2007) Fausto's reconstructed teeth were irrevocably damaged by an excess of grit. Grady's nagging elbow? Too many diving gritty catches in the outfield. Decreased attendance at ~~Jacobs~~ Progressive Field? Who, at the end of the night, wants to shake the grit out of your trouser seat?

Likelihood: Rough

Up Next: Bernie Kosar and Lebron James

Game 49: Cleveland 2, Tampa 1

APV — Thu, 28 May 2009 22:09:44 -0000

More photos » by David Richard - AP

Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Carl Crawford runs off the field and out of Cleveland as fast as he can (AP Photo/David Richard)

Browse more photos »

The Indians need to win games now. The Indians are suffering from numerous injuries, particularly to the starting rotation. These two facts mean that the Indians need players who may not have been part of plans A, B, or C at the beginning of the season to step up and perform well. They also need the guys who were counted on at the beginning of the season to do what was expected of them. Suddenly, for four games in Cleveland, that is what has happened for the Indians.

The Indians came in to this afternoon’s game with a chance to extend their first legitimate winning streak of the season to 4 games and finish off a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. David Huff, who is one of those people the Tribe needs to step up and help stabilize the starting rotation for the next month, had not made it to the fifth inning in either of his first two starts. He didn’t today again, but this time it wasn’t his fault. While looking far from over-powering, Huff worked four scoreless innings this afternoon before rain interrupted the game and ultimately ended Huff’s day prematurely. After leaving a runner in scoring position each of the first two innings, the Indians managed to score a run in the third off a bunt single from Asdrubal Cabrera, a double from Grady, and then a groundball from Victor Martinez – good enough to give the Indians a 1-0 lead heading into the rain delay.

After the rain stopped, the Indians extended the lead to 2-0 thanks to a Kelly Shoppach double down the left field line and a two out hit from (you guessed it) Victor Martinez. In the following half-inning, Jensen Lewis in for his second inning of relief allowed a solo-HR to Willie Aybar to cut the lead to 2-1. If there was a negative in today’s game, it was that the HR was the 8th allowed by Jensen on the season – not a good number for a reliever in May. Jensen was replaced by Matt Herges (1-0, 1.35), who again delivered a strong multi-inning outing, allowing just a single hit and striking out 3 in 1.2 innings. Rafael Betancourt followed with his sixth consecutive scoreless outing. And Kerry Wood followed with his fourth straight, good for his 8th save and a 2-1 Indians victory.

Next up: The Yankees come to town, Lee vs. Pettitte (7:05 pm)

Highest	WPA	Lowest	WPA
D Huff	.220	S Choo	-.119
M Herges	.183	L Valbuena	-.079
K Wood	.168	R Garko	-.070