SB Nation User Blog: APV

Weglarz has surgery

APV — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:32:14 -0000

Weglarz has surgery

via Tony Lastoria, apparently Weglarz had a metal rod inserted into his leg to stabilize the area around the stress facture which has been bothering him since August

Indians hire Ramon Pena as Latin American director

APV — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:28:34 -0000

Indians hire Ramon Pena as Latin American director

"More than 40 players signed by or under Pena have reached the Majors, including prominent closers Francisco Cordero and Fernando Rodney out of the Dominican Republic, starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens out of Curacao, utility man Omar Infante from Venezuela and outfielder Frank Catalanotto."

Cream for your morning coffee

APV — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:39:26 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

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For some reason these events seem worthy of revisiting this morning.

This and this.

And while we are at it, this, this, this, and this.

And this and this and this.

And of course this, this, this and this.

And if you type this enough it begins to look misspelled.

This.

Minor Improvements: Pitching

APV — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:04:51 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Maybe Rafael Perez should talk to a few of these guys in preparation for 2010.

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UPDATE: I left off Alex Perez (and stats tables)

Just like my previous post on positional prospects, I will try to highlight a few of the seasons by pitchers which showed the most improvement on the 2008 season. Here we have a combination of guys. Once again, top prospects show up prominently. But we also have a few guys coming off injury and few guys who just stepped up and had much improved seasons.

Chuck Lofgren had one of the most improved seasons, but this is largely a reflection of how terrible his 2008 season was. Lofgren is still a long way from being the prospect he was in 2006 as a 20-year old in Kinston. This was the first season he has brought his BB-rate under 10% since that season. Given his flyball tendencies (GB-rate: 35.9%) and K-rate (15.8%), Lofgren also still doesn't look like a part of the Indians future.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
4.63	4.15	20.0	2.7	8.1	15.8	35.9	141

Yohan Pino is another guy who probably would need to follow up on this season's improvements with another equally improved season in 2010 to really get much attention, but he did make nice strides in 2009. While advancing to AAA from AA for half the season Pino upped his K-rate (16.1 > 23.7), lowered his BB-rate (7.9 > 5.6), and cut his HR-rate in half (3.4 > 1.7). These numbers are actually more in line with his career norms than his disapointing 2008, which doesn't mean he is much of a prospect, but it may mean the Indians picked him up at the right time.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
3.44	2.83	21.4	1.7	5.6	23.7	36.2	127

Hector Rondon definitely is a prospect. I would say without much hesitation he is the Indians best pitching prospect. What Rondon did in 2009 was maintain his excellent 2009 numbers while advancing to AAA and actually lowering his BB-rate considerable (7.0 > 4.8). Rondon should be in the rotation mix for Cleveland sometime in 2010.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
3.64	3.38	23.8	1.8	4.8	22.8	37.0	146.1

Jeanmar Gomez probably had the closest thing to a breakout season of any Tribe pitcher. He was already an interesting prospect coming into 2009, but there were questions about his stuff at higher levels. What he did was rise to the occasion in a major way, punctuated by a mid-season no-hitter. Spending most of the season getting his first exposure at AA, Gomez maintained a solid GB-rate (46.5 > 48.7) while edging his K-rate up over 20% (18.1 > 20.2). Gomez won't turn 22 till mid-season in 2010.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
3.82	3.30	21.9	2.1	7.3	20.2	48.7	147.1

Paolo Espino had an interesting and perhaps under the radar 2009. Espino was limited in 2008 while coming back from injury and pitched primarily out of the bullpen. This season he stayed healthy, but he also transitioned back into a starter's role. Espino is yet another pitcher whose decent K-rate (21.2%) and decent BB-rate (6.5%) combine to make him a considerably above average control pitcher (3.25 K/BB). Espino still isn't a great prospect, but he has positioned himself to make himself interesting in the Akron rotation in 2010.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
3.68	3.01	19.9	2.0	6.5	21.2	40.6	134.2

Josh Judy had been a favorite of mine ever since I first encountered his name (I really can't wait for the day that Judge Judy's court is in session at ~~Jacobs~~ Progressive Field). Judy was one of the more important parts of Akron's outstanding 2009 bullpen. Judy pitched 54 innings and showed excellent peripherals (32.1% K-rate, 8.2% BB-rate, 50.4% GB-rate). Judy's ERA and adjusted FIP were both solidly under 3.00. He is another name to keep in the back of your head when thinking about the Indians bullpen in the latter half of 2010 and spring training 2011.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
2.87	2.83	17.9	0.9	8.3	32.1	50.7	54

If Gomez stepped up and showed himself to be a legitimate upper level prospect, Alexander Perez stepped into the role of next best young pitcher. Making his full-season debut, Perez was sensational all year until he was shut down with a strained shoulder late in the year after having been promoted to Kinston. As a cherry on top, Perez spent most of the season under the age of 20, while putting up great all around numbers.

ERA	aFIP	H/PA	HR/PA	BB/PA	K/PA	GB%	IP
2.99	3.65	21.6	2.1	7.1	22.9	48.9	114.1

I'll look at some of these, and a few others in more detail later in the off-season. For now maybe we can have something other than Manny Acta to talk about.

Minor Improvements: Offense

APV — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:24:50 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Michael Brantley should not spend much time riding the bench in 2010

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What is impressive about two of the Indians most improved seasons by minor league offensive players is that they were already top prospects. Amazingly, Carlos Santana might have had the most improved season of any Indians minor leaguer, despite coming off a sensational 2008 season.

Carlos Santana, in case you forgot, put up a .326/.431/.568 last season, spending most of his time in high-A Inland Empire and then Kinston. That included 21 HRs, 65 total XBHs, and more walks (89) than Ks (85). This year he advanced to AA and spent the entire season as the constant rock in the middle of the Aeros potent lineup. Any adjustment time Santana needed to AA talent was minimal, as he put up a .290/.413/.530 line with 55 XBHs (23 HRs) and even more walks (90) than Ks (83). Part of what made his 2009 so impressive however was that there was good reason to suspect some regression in his numbers coming into the season. His 2008 was built on the back of a +.370 BABIP. What he did this year he did with a totally reasonably .314 BABIP...no getting lucky argument for 2009, it was just the real thing.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.290	.413	.530	.943	1.028
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
16.8	15.5	23	+60	10.9

Michael Brantley, like Santana, was a top prospect coming into the season. As a member of the Brewers AA Huntsville team Brantley put up a .319/.395/.398 line with a phenomenal 5.6% K-rate. Again - Brantley's baseline may not jump out as much improved. In fact, in a lot of ways, it does not look improved at all. This year in Buffalo he put up a .267/.350/.361 line (before hitting .313/358/.348 for a month in Cleveland). Aside from advancing to AAA, where's the improvement? Again the answer lies deeper in his numbers. Michael Brantley had an underwhelming .288 BABIP this season despite putting up line drive rates well over 20% essentially every month - just as we saw in September, Brantley is a line drive machine. Corrected for this, Brantley's adjusted OPS for 2009 was actually .821, up from .767 in 2008. And despite being hobbled early in the season with a hamstring issue he stole 46 bases in 51 attempts. Now if only we could say with certainty he was a great defender (or even a good one)...

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.267	.350	.361	.711	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
11.2	9.1	6	+76	9.1

John Drennen is not a top prospect. There was a time (after the 2006 season) when Drennen was a good looking young prospect, and not just because he managed to take Roger Clemens deep in a minor league game. Then came a disappointing 2007, and then a truly terrible 2008 despite repeating Kinston. Starting in Kinston for a third straight time seemed to light a fire in Drennen, as he began the season hitting .270/.395/.397 in the season's first month. The improved plate discipline was a particular surprise. Following his promotion to Akron his plate discipline regressed, but his power spiked to a career high (36 XBHs, including 8 HRs, in 354 plate appearances). Drennen's final cumulative line, .273/.333/.441 is not going to earn him a ticket to Cleveland, but given that he just turned 23 in the season's final month, it does put him back in the picture somewhat.

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	aOPS
.273	.333	.441	.792	.821
BB%	K%	HR	Net	PS
7.7	16.0	8	0	5.4

Other offensive players who showed solid improvements from 2008 to 2009: Matt LaPorta, Jordan Brown, Donnie Webb, Lonnie Chisenhall, Matt McBride and Nick Weglarz. Pitchers will come later in the week.

UPDATE: A couple other players probably deserve a slightly longer shout-out...

It was in many ways a good year for Andy Marte. Certainly his best season since his final season with the Braves organization in 2004 at AAA Richmond. Between Columbus and Cleveland Marte put up 24 HRs and 30 2Bs. Marte seems have morphed into contact/BABIP driven offensive player, perhaps reflective of his strong pull tendencies. To be worth anything with that kind of approach he needs to show considerable power, and this season was pretty much his best power display as a pro player.

This year was also Jordan Brown's best season as a pro. Brown has followed a similar trajectory of plate discipline regression/power increase that Marte has. Unfortunately for Brown the power isn't really quite as good (.196 ISOP to Marte's .266 in AAA) and the defensive is more of a limiting circumstance. The MLE (from minorleaugesplits.com) line from Brown's season is .301/.339/.464.

Finally, Nick Weglarz rebounded pretty nicely from a disappointing 2008 season interrupted by injuries and the olympics. Weglarz baseline numbers, .227/.377/.431, are considerable deflated by a .253 BABIP (his previous career low was .311 in his rookie campaign at Burlington). His power jumped back towards his 2007 figures, which were solid, if not yet into the light-tower territory people expect from him. His BB-rate reached a career high of over 17.5% while his K-rate remained pretty stable at 18.3%. Amazingly he'll still just be 22 next year, perfect time I hope for a huge season and preparation for a 2011 rookie presence in Cleveland.

Centerfield fodder

APV — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:31:11 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

If you were told you could have the next Willy Taveras, would you want him?

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My personal period of mourning for the 2009 Cleveland Indians is over. Good riddance. A nice distraction from the lack of Indians baseball actually being played is to look back at how the Indians minor league system performed and daydream about possible future Tribesmen. I've been in the process of compiling data from the Indians farm system and a number of interesting things have stuck out to me. The first I want to talk about is the following set of centerfielders in the Indians system.

Constanza, Henry and Cid were primary CFers last season (at Akron, Mahoning Valley, and Lake County). Donnie Webb split his time pretty evenly between all three positions (mainly at LC, with a Columbus stint the final two weeks). One of the reasons I was interested in this is that all four of these guys have interesting things about them, aside from the fact that they appear to be capable defensive players. But they also all get panned by progress score. Progress score you may recall is a metric which tries to assess performance in minor league players relative to league, age, and defensive position. Younger, better, closer to the majors, and at a more skilled defensive position are all rewarded. All four of the above grade out as decidedly uninteresting (Ron Rivas outranks all of them). So is progress score missing something or are these guys really just useless? Generating value from within the system is obviously a critical part of the Indians success. It is in this context that I'd like to look at these four.

Jose Constanza led the Indians minor league system in stolen bases with 49. And while he was not as efficient as Michael Brantley, his 49:14 ratio is not bad. He also showed an excellent BB:K ratio (1.15) built on the back of an excellent BB-rate (13.0%) and an excellent K-rate (11.3%). What Constanza has against him is back to back disappointing seasons in 2007 and 2008 making him decidedly old (26 now), especially for a guy who has yet to log an at-bat above AA.

Donnie Webb led the Indians system in triples (12) to go along with good stolen base figures (36:9). For a centerfielder he actually had pretty good power, with 21 2Bs and 7 HRs to go along with his triples, good for a .132 ISO. Donnie's problem is that he was old when he was drafted (2008, 10th round) and so was just making his full season debut this year as a 23-year old in Lake County. He also has a below average (though not terrible) BB-rate (7.6%) and a below average (though not terrible) K-rate (20.9%).

Delvi Cid is a graduate of the Indians Dominican system, having made his rookie league debut last season before getting the promotion to Lake County this season. Unlike the previous two, Cid isn't old, not turning 20 till mid-July this past season. And through the first two months of last season, the then 19-year old was hitting a robust .331/.387/.423. Closer examination reveals that was on the back of a .455 BABIP - not something likely to be maintained. Especially when Cid was striking out in nearly 27% of his plate appearances (that is bad) and barely managing a walk for every four Ks (0.28 BB/K). And although Cid stole 33 bases, his 16 times getting caught pretty much make those worthless. So Delvi is young and plays great CF defense, but he has a lot of holes to fill in his game.

That leaves 2009 draftee (7th round) Jordan Henry. The strikes against Henry in the mind of progress score is that he is old to be in Mahoning Valley (it would like him considerably more were he in Kinston - which he probably will be next season), and he really doesn't hit for any power at all. In just over 300 plate appearances he managed just 12 doubles, no triples and no homeruns with nearly 60% of his balls in play in the form of groundballs. That is not inspiring. But what Henry did extremely well in his pro debut is get on base (.408 OBP), take walks (16.0% - only behind Santana and Weglarz in the system), and put the ball in play (12.1% K-rate). He also managed to only get caught stealing once in 23 attempts.

So how do we separate the wheat from the chaff with these guys? Is there actually any wheat to be found here?

The first thing I thought of with these guys is Willy Taveras. Taveras, you may recall, was selected in the rule 5 draft from Cleveland by Houston following a 2004 season when the 22.5 year old had put up a .335/.402/.386 line at Akron with 55 SBs. Taveras became the Astros starting centerfielder in 2005 and again in 2006, racking up a lot of marginal offensive plate appearances (.670 OPS, .303 wOBA, +1200 PAs). His speed (67 SB) and defense (+27.8 UZR), however, made up for it - making him a very cheap part of the Astro's team relative to his $700k combined salary. Taveras then got sent to the Rockies where he regressed in 2008 before joining the Reds for a largely disappointing 2009. Taveras is not a great player. It may be pushing it to call him a mediocre player. But for a few years he was quite effective relative to his cost.

Before being taken in the rule 5 Taveras had put together three pretty decent seasons with respect to several measures at low-A, then high-A, then AA. His OBP in those years was .385, .381, .402 with BB-rates over 10% in the first two years. His K-rate was in the 14-18% range, meaning he was not a super contact guy, but not terrible. His net (BB-K+XBH+SB-2*CS) was +26, +34, and +11. He was getting on base enough, putting the ball in play enough, fast enough, and playing good enough defense to make up for his lack of power. What about the guys above?

Donnie Webb's net last year and this year were -16 and -17 respectively. Those below average plate discipline numbers kill him, even though he does have a modicum of power. Constanza's numbers going back to 2006 are +46, -1, +15, and +53. If 2007 and 2008 had never happened for Constanza I think we would talk about him a little more. Since they did, there is really nothing left in the projection of him. That said, he seems like the best candidate to follow Taveras's path, perhaps with better plate discipline. I think he is a guy the Indians will have to think about come rule 5 time. Obviously we have Grady, but if none of the group of Choo, Brantley or Crowe are really viable CFers, Constanza might make sense as a AAA-insurance option if not a 25th man on the roster (I'd probably take him over Crowe given the choice). Delvi Cid's 2009 net was an impressive (in a bad way) -61. Cid is fast, but is a terrible base-stealer. He clearly has some offensive skill and room for projection, but at the moment is completely overwhelmed at the plate. Cid is young enough to still improve, but next year might be a good time for him to repeat in Lake County and try to improve his offensive fundamentals. Which leaves us Jordan Henry, who across a short-season at Mahoning Valley put up an impressive +44 net. It'd be nice to see Henry get the Lonnie Chisenhall aggressive treatment in 2010 in the hopes that he turns into a viable CF/leadoff prospect. At some point sooner rather than later he'll have to begin turning a few of those 60% groundballs into line drives, but he had a very encouraging rookie campaign.

I think these guys are a good illustration of why, even with a very useful metric, which I think progress score is, it is helpful to look at the larger context. Good defensive CFers have more latitude to be average on offense than do corner outfielders. Add in a lot of positive extras, like solid plate discipline and good base-running, and these guys might be interesting in the right organizational context.

Acta, Lovullo, Valentine, Mattingly

APV — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:26:14 -0000

Acta, Lovullo, Valentine, Mattingly

According to Castrovince - To be more specific, Acta is interviewing today (Tuesday). Castrovince says Lovullo will be in on Friday. Valentine is on the list but it is unclear when he is interviewing. And the fourth, according to Shapiro, is busy at the moment (in the playoffs), from which Castrovince speculates given Mattingly's previous statements that it is the former Yankee firstbaseman.

Blake Lee Pronk

APV — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 13:09:34 -0000

Blake Lee Pronk

Travis and Amy Hafner are celebrating the birth of their first child, who they have named....Blake Lee Hafner. Hat tip to maccason, who apparently got word of this from his sister.

Fire Everyone! - Eric Wedge (check)

APV — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:37:13 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Wait - we're trying to score more points than the other team? I told Mark learning how to play golf was a bad idea..."

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This is the 11th installment in a 12-part series. Notes from today's press conference are here.

Evaluating managers involves consideration of a paradox. On one hand managers are often held accountable for a team's poor performance. Disappointing season — fire the manager. Players underperforming — fire the manager. And yet in addition to this concept of accountability, it is widely regarded that managers have relatively little impact on the final outcome of a season if not an individual game. Systematic comparisons between "good" managers and "bad" managers show surprisingly few differences. There is a tendency to credit players for positive performances, and blame managers and coaches for poor performances. So which is it? Is Wedge responsible for the Indians rise from a 68-win team his first season to a 93-win near playoff team just two years later? Or is he responsible for the late season collapse that kept us out of that post-season? Is he responsible for the disappointing follow-up season in 2006? Or the statement-making 2007 season in which the 96-win Cleveland team was clearly (along with Boston) one of the best two teams in the league? Or is he responsible for the 3 consecutive losses that ended that playoff run prematurely? Or the disappointing follow-up 2008 season? Or the epic failure of this season?

Entering this afternoon's game Eric Wedge's career record as the Indians manager is 560-568, meaning he will finish his tenure just a few games under .500. He has managed the 4th most games as an Indians manager (behind Boudreau, Hargrove and Speaker) and has the 5th most victories (add Al Lopez to the previous list). He has coached one playoff team and won one (very memorable and satisfying) playoff series while losing a second (very memorable and painful) series. Just 35 when he was hired, he was and still is quite young, so his managerial days are quite possibly not over. Having come up through the Indians minor league managerial system Wedge was thought to be someone who would work well with the young and developing team that Shapiro & Co. were putting together in the post-Colon trade era.

Players have both succeeded and failed under Wedge. We have seen the development of an original new "core" set of players with guys like Sizemore, Peralta, Sabathia, Lee, Martinez and Hafner. And we have seen the beginning of perhaps a new core of talent with players like Cabrera and Choo. Several notable players have clashed and/or failed to develop - Milton Bradley, Brandon Phillips, Andy Marte. The discussions which have been going on since the collapse of 2005 will no doubt continue into the off-season. What effect has Wedge's parceling out of playing time had on the development of important organizational parts? Has Wedge used pitchers, particularly relievers, correctly? Can we blame Wedge for being out-coached by Francona in the 2007 playoffs? These are all legitimate discussions to have, but do not have much impact on my view of today's firing.

I am happy to see the Indians fire Wedge today and have a vocal history on this site for arguing he should have been fired back in May. My reasons largely reflect issues independent of the overall evaluation of Wedge's strengths and weaknesses or previous successes and failures. I think Wedge should have been fired because the Indians were going in the wrong direction back in May and had no other options to elicit change in the hopes of producing a different on the field result. Doubts about our starting pitching were obvious and well-voiced during spring training, but there was a sense that we had enough options to play mix-and-match with our depth until we found the right set of 5 guys for any given stretch. Injuries erased much of that depth and gave us few options for changing the cast of characters taking the ball every five days. I, like several others, had high hopes for our bullpen this season. The simultaneous blow-up of four of our top five relievers made alternative courses of action difficult. We did end up putting a shuffle of players together (Chulk, Veras, Herges, Aquino et al.)...but the results were not good. Our offense actually was not that bad, but given that, there was little hope of it suddenly performing so well that our deficiencies in pitching could be overcome. So our only path for success was to perform better with the players we had. And actually, to perform dramatically better. The failures were widespread, although focused on pitching, so simply changing out a coach or two did not appear to be a sufficient solution. The only reasonable solution was firing the manager and trying to inspire better performance out of the 25 guys going in and out of the team clubhouse everyday.

The Indians chose to do nothing. Until now. The decision to do nothing appears even more damning in retrospect. We now know, especially following the trades of Lee and Martinez, that the Indians were operating on a competitive and financial edge not just for this season but for 2010 as well. If this season failed, next season went down with it. The front office knew this by July 1st, which means they should have known it on April 1st. Reviving this season was critical for the trajectory of this franchise. Shapiro should have fired Wedge and whatever coaches he wanted to go with him because it was the only option for saving 2010, as well as salvaging this season. On May 14th the Indians were a very disappointing 8 games under .500 (14-22), but only 4.5 games out of the AL Central lead. Three consecutive losses to Tampa put them 11 games under and 7.5 games out of 1st place going into a May 18th, Monday off-day. Defcon 1 alarm bells should have been going off in the corridors of the Indians front office. I am quite certain the Indians have systematic analysis showing that teams that change managers mid-season do not generally do well. Mid-season firings are not the "right" choice. And I am quite certain I don't care about those results. This is one of those areas in which Cleveland really had nothing to lose by making the move and everything to lose by not making the change.

The Indians actually played with a degree of mediocrity (an improvement) over the remainder of May and first half of June, playing 4 games above .500 between May 19th and June 14th. Then came a devastating back-to-back pair of three-game interleague series, at Milwaukee and at Chicago, in which the Indians went 0-6, losing the first 5 games by 2 runs or less, and falling from 6 to 10 games out of first place. The Indians again had an off-day and again should have considered firing Wedge. At that point, June 22nd, I don't actually fault the Indians for keeping Wedge, but this is only because at that point the season was essentially done. The Indians had to win the AL Central to make the playoffs, were 10 games out of 1st with 4 teams ahead of them in the standings, and had a variety of injuries on the roster. Certainly, I would not have objected if the Indians had them fired him, but the time to make that decision was already in the past. Eric Wedge should have been fired on May 18th.

I am happy the Indians have fired Wedge. I don't know whether Wedge is a good coach or not, although I think there are probably a lot of better coaches out there. I am not sure what failures are properly assigned to Wedge. The decision to fire Wedge now is the right one, but it is in itself a failure, although it is a failure not of Wedge, but of Shapiro.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:24:36 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.