
AZranger
Mar 22, 2008 Mar 22, 2008 10 397
RSSUser Blog
Interesting piece on CY
Perhaps some insight into why the Rangers whiffed on him. I've always felt his stuff was mediocre at best, but hadn't seen it written/posted anywhere before now. Not criticizing him - he's been very effective - just an observation...
From Kevin Goldstein on Baseball Prospectus:
Chris Young, RHP, Padres
Young is hardly a prospect, but give me some latitude here. On Friday afternoon, I was able to see Young pitch in person, about four rows behind home plate, surrounded by a gaggle of scouts. His fastball was 83-86 mph, and generally well up in the zone, his breaking ball wasn't especially crisp, and yet, he was untouchable, firing three no-hit innings. As scouts shook their heads, the discussion began of how this can be possible, and frankly, nobody had an especially good answer. There are just some guys who don't fit into the scouting reports, where the mismatch between what should be happening and what is happening is so extreme as to simply be beyond understanding. That's kind of exciting, but also frustrating. Chris Young is a bit of a freak, as is a guy like Jamie Moyer, but remember, there are just two of them. That prospect on your favorite team with that kind of profile with good numbers and little in the way of stuff is not the next Jamie Moyer or Chris Young. There are one hundred guys with the same kind of stuff as Jamie Moyer or Chris Young, but there is only one Jamie Moyer or Chris Young.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7224
Confidence Rating - Daniels & Baseball Ops Staff (poll)
Thought it would be interesting to take LSB's pulse on the job Jon Daniels and his staff are doing. We discuss the merits of each move, pour over prospect lists, and even graded the off-season as a whole. But how do we feel looking forward? How confident are you that this team is finally headed the right direction?
For the purpose of this poll, try to isolate the GM and his decision-making baseball staff. This isn't about the owner or anything like that.
LSB Demographics (poll)
Just curious about the makeup of the visitors to Adam's blog. Think it'd be nice to get a feel for "who" we're conversing with online. I put some TV references down for each age group, although there's some crossover (I'm in the 26-35 group but watched plenty of Matlock & The Real World).
Adam - hope you don't mind, just thought it would be interesting.
Gammons: McCarthy top breakout candidate
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2763848&name=gammons_peter
"I polled approximately 70 front office, field and scouting people on what they are looking for, and one of my favorites is "breakout seasons." Here are the poll winners.
1. Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Texas. The White Sox may worry about his gopher-ball rate, and Arlington is not a good place for any right-handed pitcher, but there are many, many people who believe McCarthy is Jack McDowell II."
Felix Hernandez is the only other AL West player on his list.
Org prospect rankings are BS
We make too much of it when a team is ranked in the top 5 or the bottom 5 (or 8, or 10...). The current concern over the Rangers system is being overblown.
For the past few years, everyone has bemoaned the terrible farm system of the Yankees. They were annually ranked in the bottom 5 by most publications. Writers claimed they didn't have enough depth or talent to trade for top players.
Meanwhile, they developed:
Wang - who, despite a low K rate, is a solid #2/3 starter.
Cano - who just hit .340
Cabrera - the best 4th OF in the league, and a guy who'd be starting & possibly starring everywhere else
And traded for:
Randy Johnson/Javier Vazquez
Alex Rodriguez
Bobby Abreu
Scott Proctor
among others (yes, I realize they were able to take on salaries other teams can't)
And within one season, they vaulted from bottom 5 to top 5/10 in most farm system rankings. Basically they developed Hughes & Tabata and traded for Sanchez and a few mid-tier prospects.
My point is these rankings swing wildly every year or two. A good draft this year, and a couple of existing players having healthy/productive seasons, and the Rangers will be out of the cellar. Not worth getting too down about.
Excellent Ron Washington article
Didn't see it posted elsewhere:
http://www.dallasobserver.com/Issues/2007-02-08/news/whitt.html
Includes some great quotes. Here are a few key excerpts:
"Can we win the West? Yes. Absolutely. Without a doubt. That's the goal," says the man now adamantly slamming fist on desk and conjuring images of Dallas Mavericks coach Avery Johnson, plus some years and minus some drawl. "Seems like every year the Rangers have it going until around the All-Star break, then they collapse. But nope, no more. I'm going to take them all the way to the finish line."
"This is not the same old Rangers," continues the charismatic leader who is blowing my mind, much less distracting me from a runny nose and tingly toes. "I'm going to take the shackles off this team. I want the players to be who they are, not a bunch of guys looking over their shoulders and worrying about petty stuff. If you're a prankster, prank. If you're quiet, don't say a word. As long as they keep the firemen and the police out, the clubhouse belongs to them. I know these guys have it in them, and it's my job to get it out. When we start clicking, we'll take no prisoners."
Says pitcher Kameron Loe, "He brings a lot of positivity, more than we're used to having around here."
"I'm blessed with the skills to teach, to make people feel good about themselves," says Washington, sitting in the same office and the same chair where for years Showalter routinely grumbled pity parties. "Nothing tricky. But I'll make these players better; make 'em reach their peak. I'm a high-energy guy and I won't waver. I expect them to play follow the leader."
"We've got a lot of raw talent, but let's be realistic," Daniels says. "He's not being handed a perfect roster."
"I just want him to be Hank Blalock, hitting homers, driving in runs and playing third base like a Gold Glover," Washington says. "I'm taking the burden off him coming to the park wondering if he's going to play against some tough lefty pitcher. Instead, I want him focused on figuring out a way to beat that lefty's ass."
"It's all going to work out," says Washington, concluding his wintry mix of sermon and salesmanship. "I've started getting rid of the tension that was everywhere, with the players and even their wives. We're cleansing ourselves. We're going to be a team that scratches and claws when we're behind and that goes for the knockout blow when we're ahead. We're going to win."
OT: NFL Franchise Player Values
From John Clayton's blog:
Franchise players: The league and the NFLPA officially agreed on the franchise numbers for 2007. Here they are:
Quarterbacks -- $12.615 million
Running backs -- $6.999 million
Safeties -- $4.49 million
Tight ends -- $4.371 million
Wide receivers -- $7.613 million
Cornerbacks -- $7.79 million
Defensive ends -- $8.644 million
Defensive tackles -- $6.775 million
Linebackers -- $7.206 million
Offensive linemen -- $9.556 million
Kickers -- $2.078 million
Since they are a reflection of the values placed on the upper echelon of each position by teams - seems odd to me that top running backs are paid less (and thus, deemed less valuable) than top cornerbacks and wide receivers. Offensive linemen don't surprise me. Defensive ends & linebackers more valued than running backs? I don't know enough about NFL salaries to debate the specifics, but find this very interesting.
Would like to see the same breakdown for baseball, by position.
Angels injuries
McPherson may miss the season. Rivera out indefinitely. Morales getting an MRI on his knee (though it doesn't seem serious). That's on top of Colon's shoulder, and annual concerns with Guerrero & Anderson.
It's looking more and more like the AL West may be decided by the health of key players. That Anaheim is getting off to a bad start in that category bodes well for us and Oakland.
Texas: Gagne, Wilkerson, Blalock, Lofton?
Oakland: Harden, Street, Bradley, Kotsay, Crosby
Anaheim: Colon, Rivera, McPherson, Morales, Guerrero?, Anderson?
McCarthy trade in context
Unless I'm missing one, there were 6 trades for starting pitchers made this off-season, 3 of which had a similar structure:
- Freddy Garcia (1yr of control) for Gio Gonzalez & Gavin Floyd
- Jason Jennings (1yr of control) and Miguel Ascencio for Jason Hirsch, Willy Taveras & Taylor Buchholz
- Brandon McCarthy (5yrs of control) for John Danks & Nick Masset
The Garcia and Jennings deals set the market at one premium pitching prospect (Hirsch and Gonzalez) plus one interesting power arm (Buchholz and Floyd). The Astros also included a young position player for essentially nothing (Ascencio has minimal value). Both of those deals netted an established big league starter just one year from free agency.
The Rangers acquired McCarthy for approximately the same package: one premium starter prospect (Danks) and one power arm with big upside (Masset). We can argue over the relative value of the prospects involved (I'd rank Danks over Hirsch and Gonzalez, but not by much), but to get 5 years of McCarthy vs one year of Garcia/Jennings is a no brainer. How much is the "proven veteran" status worth when evaluating the Phillies & Astros' acquisitions vs our own?
The more I think about this deal, the more I like it. Considerable risk involved, of course, but in a market where mediocre starting pitching commands upwards of $40mil, or multiple prospects for one year of performance - I like what the team was able to pull off.
Creates what could be the most stable and self-sustaining pitching the franchise has ever had (or certainly in a long time), with the first four members of the rotation followed by Rupe/Koronka/Volquez/Loe and then Hurley/Diamond/etc.
Sorry if this doesn't qualify as "new material" but thought it worth posting.
Happy New Year
JD on with Norm
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