Per Twitter. First Reaction - wTF? Cabrera is the typical one-shot pony, but Sabean can't seriously believe he can play CF in AT&T, can he?  

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-cains-pitch-selection-by-count/

See above - some interesting thoughts / notes,

- Cain almost never throws a LHH a slider, unless you have 2 strikes on you. If you're a lefty early on in an AB, you can think of Cain as a 3-pitch pitcher, which almost certainly makes the guesswork a little easier. Fascinatingly for me, the more strikes he gets on you, the more like he is to add to the repertoire - making a hitter's job even harder.

- As we would expect, the fastball % goes up with the no of balls in the count - its still the pitch he seems to have the most confidence in throwing for a strike

- If you have a 3-1 count, you can bet your life savings on Cain not throwing you a curveball. That's not necessary surprising, but Cain is willing to use it on a 3-0 count at a reasonable frequency (8%) - but not at 3-1.

All and all, its a really interesting picture of a very smart pitcher.

Well, at least we know he will be able to make here in time for today's game. IT actually looks (from the stats) that we gave up a pretty decent prospect - Evan Crawford, hitting .316/.375/.447 in Low-A ball as a 20 year old - playing primarily CF. I can't find any BA reports on him unfortunately - we'll see.

http://twitter.com/extrabaggs

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=crawfo002eva

http://ussmariner.com/2010/02/01/ms-sign-garko/

Garko projection from Marcel: .272/.345/.428
Huff projection from Marcel: .263/.327/.438

$550K. While we are paying $3M for an older, worse hitting, worse fielding player. Awesome. 

Seriously, offering Garko $1M wouldn't have been a good idea at all. He might not have considered it.

The Giants are an awful, awful offensive team; this isn't much in dispute. You can scream about it (and I have - if  I had to pay a quarter for every time I've sworn here, I could pay off Renteria's contract), but there are limitations to what an awful team can do to improve its raw hitting ability as it, were. Nonetheless, the single most frustrating thing about this team is that the hitters repeatedly show a complete and total lack of patience - and worse, the idiots running the team (Bochy, Carney, Dunston) seem to do nothing about it. 

A look at the numbers, to start, with the Optimist and the Realist:

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Some of you may remember me from epics posts such as "Goddamnit Scott, don't swing at that slider away" and "Goddamnit Ishi, that breaking ball down and in is a BALL". Here, I'd like to bring back memories of a more recent proof of suckage - Bengie Molina. See the original thread, dated June 11, for a discussion of the issues: The Bengie Molina Paradox

At that point, Bengie was hitting .256/.264/.436, for an OPS of .700, but his god-awful OBP. Since then, Bengie has actually improved his OBP.... hitting a robust .261/.277/.377 (June 11 to Aug 2, not including today), for a total OPS of .654. As of today's line, Bengie's record is .258/.268/.411 - his OPS at .682. For reference, the only Giants regular with a similarly Aurillia-esque line is his partner in failure, Edgar Renteria, hitting .256/.311/.321.

The question remains - just how much does Bengie suck? And why does it matter so much to the Giants?

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There was an interesting discussion going on in this thread about the penalty of Bengie's base running, with the caveat offered by the original poster that he's still percieved Bengie as a good player and a good hitter.  Suffice to say, I think this is broadly wrong, for a multitude of reasons, and I thought I'd bring it out here. Basically, much as we like Bengie, he's just not that great. In fact, I venture that Fred Lewis is a significantly more valuable player than Bengie Molina to the 2009 SF Giants, a fact that makes the Damon Bruce crowd go broke.

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Wow.  That's seem like good luck that's very out of character for a SF-based franchise. If they pick up another RB, a lineman, and an edge-rusher later, it seems like a decent draft for them

Anyone else watching the draft? Comments other than LOL Raiders (which is appropriate again today)? I'm not a big NFL fan compared to baseball, but still interested.

PS - $42M guaranteed for Stafford - this should be interesting.

So,

anyone been to one of these before? I have to be up in the city on Saturday anyway, and wanted to drop by for a couple of hours if its fun/entertaining, and because damnit, I need baseball to be back already. People planning to go from here? Figure if we get a large enough flock of McCoven, can grab a beer or something before (9AM beer - always a good start) or after. I'm looking forward to deluding myself on how this will be our year.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7937

A couple of excerpts (keeping it short with copyright)

Look, I’m no radical, but I’ve never understood why we allow in sports what we would never allow in other professions. Engineering firms don’t draft the top engineers and pay them below-market rates, and while the early careers of attorneys can be daunting, they get to choose a firm to give 100 hours a week to for a few years. ...

We also wouldn’t tell them they had to work for a lousy firm, or in a city they might hate, far from their families. As a nation, we wouldn’t stand for that kind of thing, but we do in sports. In sports, we’re handing over the prime of players’ careers without ever giving them a chance to find out what they were worth. For many players, the step from amateur to professional is, in fact, the only time in their lives that they will have any leverage at all in their salary, if not their employer or place of work or management team. It is embarrassing to take so much away from them, then complain that they’re not being reasonable when it comes to the one thing that they can negotiate. If coming out of college I’d been told that I had no choice but to go copyedit for the Des Moines Register, you can be damn sure that I would have been a jerk about salary.

Seriously, this is the point that way too many people ignore - the idea that the players have some sort of duty to sacrifice "For the good of the game", or whatever bogeyman we owe today.  I'd like Buster Posey to be a Giant, but damn if I think he's wrong to maximize every penny he can get at this point.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/ - see Gary's post
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/

Anyone else going? I went a few years ago, and generally had a good time, and its a pretty decent cause.

Details on the events page - March 18 and March 27 - I'll be attending the March 18 in Menlo Park, which means Round Table.... spectacular.

From Rotoworld:

    Omar Vizquel's soon-to-be-finalized contract with the Giants will be worth $5.5 million and include a vesting option for 2009.
The option, which becomes guaranteed if he plays in 140 games, is worth $5.2 million. The 40-year-old Vizquel will be getting a raise from the $4 million he made last season even though he was as bad of a hitter as there was in the NL. When the Giants say they don't have the money to pursue Alex Rodriguez, it's because of decisions like this.

Seriously? Why does Brian Sabean have a job? Does he have a secret stash of Abe Vigoda pics that make him happy? YOu're giving a 40 year old who was the WORST offensive regular in baseball a 2 year deal? And you're giving him a raise?

From Rotoword:

Lincecum, their No. 1 pick in 2006, can be had for a quality bat."
Maybe he has Lincecum confused with Noah Lowry. It wouldn't be his sloppiest writing in the column. Ringolsby leads off his article with: "After giving up three of its top five pitching prospects in July of 2006 to acquire Livan Hernandez from Arizona ... Arizona finds itself searching for rotation help." Ignoring the obvious gaffe that they made the trade with themselves, the Diamondbacks actually gave up only two prospects and the deal was done in August. But other than that, he's nearly spot on. OK, back to Lincecum. He simply cannot be had for a quality bat. Maybe he'll be available in return for an exceptional bat. The only player we can think of that qualifies and might be available is Miguel Cabrera.

Seriously? Who wants to lead the pitchfork brigade?

Obviously, this is cherry picking - but still - I found this amusing in light of another discussion.

Pitcher A in his free agent season - 27 year old LHP: ERA+ of 139, 217 IP, 99 BB, 151K's, and 10 HR's.

Zito: 28 year old LHP: ERA+ of 116, ERA+ of 116, 221 IP, 99 BB, 151K's, and 27 HR's.

Ladies and gents, we've signed Mike Hampton.

someone else brought this up - and I'm curious - what happened to him? I know he had a back injury last year, but is he pitching at all?

One of the things that's been somewhat enjoyable is that all things considered, the Giants pitching has been really good this year - with the starting rotation in particular being absolutely magnificent. The Giants have a team ERA of 3.77, and 4 SP's with an ERA below that. I can't recall who (and it may have been more than one person - a common sentiment perhaps) mentioned that they wouldn't swap the Giants rotation for anyone - and there was a fair amount of consensus around that belief.

The bad news: Our pitching is living on knife-edge - anyone want to take a bet on Matt Morris ending the year with a 3.20 ERA bet? The team's K/BB ratio is 1.42 - and the overall K/9 rate is 5.69. That K/BB ratio is 28th in the majors - and that K/9 rate is 25th. Simply put, that's not sustainable.

 Those stats would be less troublesome when you have a good/great defense to back you up (Omar and Pedro make that category if we're being generous - no one else), but that's not really the Giants forte. The team's Defensive Efficiency (basically, what percentage of Balls in play end up as outs) is .710 - 13th in the majors. Some of this may be the park effect (fly ball pitchers in a large park), but I don't know if that's likely to last either, given the age of the team. Ray-Ray can be described as an average fielder through our rose-tinted glasses - Bonds and Klesko, the less said, the better.

What's causing this "luck"? The Giants are pretty solid as BAPIP goes, but one statistic stuck out for me: HR as a % of FB. The league average is 9% - and the Giants are currently at about 6%. For context - this is the lowest number in baseball (the Dodgers are also at 6%).

Essentially, a lot of those flyballs are staying in the park. This may well be a Pac Bell effect (although the park has essentially been neutral the last couple of years - not a pitcher's park as perceived), or it may be a sign that the Giants are getting significantly luckier than their K-rates suggest.

To summarize: The results don't match the peripherals, and that's more than a little worrisome - when the pitching goes back to what the numbers indicate, we will be in trouble.

Where's the downside coming from? Well, its no secret that Matt Morris and Noah Lowry (them of the 15/18 and 16/16 K/BB ratios) are both light years better than their peripherals suggest. Simlarly, Matt Cain is a great pitcher, but a K/BB ratio of 25/21 was not that of an 1.51 ERA pitcher - his last start was certainly not reflective of him as a whole, but unless he gets significantly better control, his current ERA (3.08) is a great goal for the season. Cain may well be one of the rare pitchers whose stuff is good enough for consistently lower BAPIP rates, but it seems hard to make that call just yet. Moreover, the Giants have had only 2 blown saves in the year - again, the 5th lowest in baseball. Now, saves are generally a pretty useless statistic, but its telling that Benitez has been perfect this year - by any neutral impression, that's not going to last.

That being said, this analysis is all pre-Enchanter - I think he's a reasonable bet to be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher on the Giants. Overall though, I find myself more worried about what's to come, especially since the offense is striving for mediocrity at best.

Just throwing this out there:

"With Tim Lincecum coming up and Jonathan Sanchez in the shadows, the Giants are discussing shopping a starting pitcher to get a young position player. They would like Melky Cabrera, but it is doubtful the Yankees would consider Cabrera for Noah Lowry."

I think Cabrera is a decent player, but I worry that he's a 4th OF type - An actual .280/.360 CF is pretty good, but at this point, his track record doesn't exactly bear it out. Its a worthwhile examination (though admittedly, Gammons has been known to be "creative") of what Lowry's value actually is, IMO, instead of some of the fanciful proposals floating around here at times.

At this point, I'm ready to embrace them, if only because that's going to be the only enjoyable thing about the team this year.

From Keith Law's chat today: "San Diego has played nearly all of its games so far against the Sunnyside Assisted Living Giants, and both teams play in great pitchers' parks. "

AND

Chris, Nova Scotia: Keith, any truth to the rumour that the Giants are trying to schedule all day home games since Matlock comes on at 9 local time?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:51 PM ET ) I heard they just signed Abe Simpson to pitch in their pen.

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_5477269

Interesting - the generosity bit is something admittedly that we've never heard about. Is it possible that Armando isn't evil personified? ;)

From Rotoworld:

With a flaw in his delivery corrected, Russ Ortiz has been impressive so far in Giants camp, manager Bruce Bochy said.
"He certainly looks like the Russ Ortiz we all know," Bochy said. Ortiz is 13-3 against the Padres in his career, so Bochy would know. Still, we'll believe it when we see it. Even if Ortiz pitches well enough to help the Giants as a fifth starter, he's still likely to have a poor WHIP and strikeout rate, preventing him from making too much of a contribution in fantasy leagues.

The Russ Ortiz we know? The one who gave up walks as if it were a Biblical command? Why am I petrified that Jonathan Sanchez will end up as an MR because Ortiz is the "proven" veteran?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_MLB.aspx

[i]The Marlins are still holding out hope of acquiring Armando Benitez and would prefer not to shift Ricky Nolasco to the pen.

Nolasco would become a favorite to close if he is tried as a reliever, but the Marlins think he can contribute more as a starter. As things stand now, Taylor Tankersley looks like the best bet for saves in the Florida pen. The team is still believed to be willing to part with either Yusmeiro Petit or Sergio Mitre for Benitez. However, if the Giants are going to be paying almost all of Benitez's salary, they'll want more in return.[/i]

Maybe its just me, but I think Benitez is a sunk cost at this point - anything we can get for him is a bonus. Mitre or Petit wouldn't be that bad.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6174052

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From Primer:

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Woo hoo!

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Home_MLB.aspx

Rotoworld reports he's been DFA'ed. One year and $1.7 million too late, but hey - Sabean eventually learns!

Sean Casey is a Tiger - for a relief pitching prospect . Given the Pirates are awash in mediocre arms, one would have thought they would be looking for a bat, but that's that. We had to give up a young major league reliever with great stuff for Hillebrand, and the Tigers gave up crap for Casey ? More proof of Sabean being Sabean.

Rheal Cormier goes to Reds, who further improve their bullpen - again, they gave up a decent prospect in Justin Germano for a 37 year old lefty. Unlike the last trade, Gillick did not get raped in this one.

ESPN just reported it on Baseball Tonight. No names mentioned, but it must be frigging Accordo (as per the message board post). Crap - I liked Accordo. So help me, if we gave up something like EME as well, I'm going to be angry.

This may shock you lot - but apparently, the Giants are interested in a player under the age of 35.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/pit_post_gazette_rockies_shealy_in_tr ade_sights/

Talked a little bit about Sanchez - definite fan.
Also mentioned our beloved rotation of the future (Williams, Ainsworth, Foppert) and Brian Wilson.

SportsNation John Manuel: I've done our Giants Top 30 prospects the last two years, and I am glad I got in early on Sanchez. The Giants like him a lot, and I do too. He's a legitimate power lefty, 92-93 mph with his fastball, I'm guessing he's pumping it even harder out of the bullpen. The Giants moved him there at Double-A because they think he can help their bullpen now. Great scouting to get a college senior lefty with power stuff that late out of an NAIA school, and then great development to clean up his mechanics and make him a productive pitcher so quickly.

 John Manuel: Sorry for the little delay, I had a quick phone call to take. I like the Beach Boys suggestion, but I'm sure we can come up witih something better than "Good Vibrations," that's played out. How about 'Don't Worry Baby"? Hard to know if Wilson has closer moxie, and I think moxie more than stuff makes a closer. He has the stuff, when he's at his best. I think he's more of a setup guy though.

SportsNation John Manuel: Ha, not for the Giants. Aardsma was always viewed as a reliever. All those guys have been dealt. I thought Jerome was the real deal and apparently some off-field issues made things go south for him. Foppert and Ainsworth were injury issues, and Aardsma was just rushed. I still think Aardsma can contribute as a setup guy for the Cubs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=gallo/060403_april

Some really good stuff:

Some of my favorites:

June 11 -- Chicago White Sox players admit that after a full season with him, and despite his role in helping them win a World Series ring, they're starting to hate A.J. Pierzynski now, too, just like everyone else.

September 6 -- Dodgers manager Grady Little reverts to old habits by leaving starting pitcher Brett Tomko in until the eighth inning which, in Tomko's case, is eight innings too long.

Firstly, long time no see and all that jazz - in my absence, the Giants have not acquired Vlag Guerrero and Eric Gagne for pixie dust. I'm disappointed.

That being said, anyone not drinking the Brian Sabean kool-aid that Lance Neikro can hit RH should be intrigued by the rumors of the impending release of Carlos Pena and/or Hee Sep Choi. Neither of these guys are great shakes, but they're decent 1b who can't hit LH - which, coincidentially, is the one that Neikro can do.

Pena hit .254/.355/.493 against RH last year - Choi, when he wasn't been jerked around, hit .258/.335/.460. Neither of them are great shakes, but playing for idiots as mangers didn't help their cause either. I have to believe that an .800 OPS against RH (they're both 27 - coming into their peak) is a perfectly reasonable expectation from one of the two - and the platoon with Neikro can be reasonably productive. Thoughts ?