SB Nation User Blog: Aadik

Taking a pitch: A short look at the failings of the SF Giants

Aadik — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 04:59:57 -0000

The Giants are an awful, awful offensive team; this isn't much in dispute. You can scream about it (and I have - if I had to pay a quarter for every time I've sworn here, I could pay off Renteria's contract), but there are limitations to what an awful team can do to improve its raw hitting ability as it, were. Nonetheless, the single most frustrating thing about this team is that the hitters repeatedly show a complete and total lack of patience - and worse, the idiots running the team (Bochy, Carney, Dunston) seem to do nothing about it.

A look at the numbers, to start, with the Optimist and the Realist:

Realist: Just how bad, are the Giants offensively? Coming into the game, lets look at the simplest measure - OBP. Major league baseball:

1. Yankees - .359

2. Dodgers - .353

3. Angels - .351

4. Indians - .349

5. Rays - .349

...

Avg: .333

...

28.Royals - .314

29. Reds - .310

30: Giants - .310

Optimist: OBP is a measure that is still heavily dependent on hitting; the Giants suck, but their low OBP is a product of them not hitting well, not a lack of patience. All the magic in the world can't teach Edgar Renteria to hit a Jonathan Broxton fastball, or allow Scott to hit a slider.

Realist: Pure hitting suckage? Heathen. Lets look at team BB instead

1. Yankees - 471

2. Rays - 468

3. Red Sox - 460

4. Rockies - 445

5. Nationals - 441

...

Avg: 383

...

28. Royals - 302

29. Mariners - 296

30: Giants - - 248

Realist: Lets ponder the depths of the Giants putridity at taking a walk here, shall we? Not only does the team rank dead last in baseball in BB's, they have a 20% deficit as compared to the team in 29th place.

...

Optimist: Well, maybe the lack of walks is a product of them taking pitches, but not taking good pitches - right? There's got to be some upside to the number of pitches they take, right? Please god, right? Oh god, you're pulling out another data table aren't you?

Pessimist: ....

P/PA

1.Rockies - 3.99

2. Rays - 3.98

3. Indians - 3.95

...

Avg: 3.84

...

28. Braves - 3.69

29. Cardinals - 3.66

...

30. Giants - 3.60

Optimist: (now flailing around for an excuse): while this team is awful at taking walks, they must make up for it in some way; they get the ball into play, hustling and grittying like the veteran-savvy team they are. Why, I bet they get the ball into play a lot. Nerd - they don't K, they play baseball the right way. Why don't you go back into your mom's basement?

Pessimist: in my mom's basement, I looked at the BB/K statistics. For funsies.

BB / K ratio.

1. Yankees - 0.69

2. Mets - 0.65

3. Red Sox - 0.59

4. Dodgers - 0.59

...

27. Mariners - 0.42

28. Royals - 0.41

29. Rangers - 0.36

...

30. Giants - 0.31

Optimist (sobs uncontrollably): Make the bad man stop showing me numbers!

Pessimist: just one more set. yes... just one more set. And because I don't know HTML (hey, I never said I was a good nerd), I'll just link directly to the source.

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=5&season=2009&month=0

For reference, lets look at:

a. O-Swing (% of pitches swung at outside the zone)

1. Yankees - 21.9%

2. Dodgers - 22.4%

3. Indians - 22.5%

4. Brewers - 22.7%

...

27. Astros - 27.4%

28. Rangers - 28.1%

29. Mariners - 29.1%

30. Giants - 31.9%

b. F-Strike (first strike %, or how often the teams hitters are at an 0-1 count)

1. Phillies - 55.5%

2. Yankees - 56.0%

3. Orioles - 56.8%

4. Indians - 57.1%

...

27. Twins - 58.9%

28. Reds - 60.5%

29. Rangers - 60.6%

30. Giants - 61.0%

Optimist: Okay, just so I'm clear here, you're suggesting the the Giants are dead last in:

- taking pitches

- BB's,

- OBP,

- first-strike counts,

- and swinging at pitches in the strike zone.

And thus potentially, a team that hacks at eveyrthing, thus leading itself into bad counts, takes just enough pitches to strike out but not to walk, usually swings at a first pitch outside the zone, thus leading to being on the defensive for the rest of the AB's, is responsible for its offensive problem?You're also suggesting that despite this analysis which could your average 3- year crack baby could understand, the team's approach has been to rank dead-last in pitches per plate appearance and swing at everything in sight?

Pessimist: Yes.

Optimist: But does it capture Rich Aurillia's grit and veteran moxey?

Pessimist (shoots optimist).

The Return of the Suck: Bengie Molina, part 2

Aadik — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 03:02:33 -0000

Some of you may remember me from epics posts such as "Goddamnit Scott, don't swing at that slider away" and "Goddamnit Ishi, that breaking ball down and in is a BALL". Here, I'd like to bring back memories of a more recent proof of suckage - Bengie Molina. See the original thread, dated June 11, for a discussion of the issues: The Bengie Molina Paradox

At that point, Bengie was hitting .256/.264/.436, for an OPS of .700, but his god-awful OBP. Since then, Bengie has actually improved his OBP.... hitting a robust .261/.277/.377 (June 11 to Aug 2, not including today), for a total OPS of .654. As of today's line, Bengie's record is .258/.268/.411 - his OPS at .682. For reference, the only Giants regular with a similarly Aurillia-esque line is his partner in failure, Edgar Renteria, hitting .256/.311/.321.

The question remains - just how much does Bengie suck? And why does it matter so much to the Giants?

The Giants as a team are an offensive suckhole - this isn't a secret. But their absolute inability to take pitches makes this team even worse.

Team OBP

1: Yankees - .359

Average : - .332

29th: Royals - .309

...

30th: Giants - .308

Team BB taken

1: Yankees - 446

Average: - 362

29: Mariners: - 277

...

30: Giants - 236.

Ponder this for a second; not only do the Giants suck extraordinarily at OBP, but their walk total is so bad that they are 40 BB's worse off than the next best team. Who is responsible for this team's inability to take a goddamn pitch?

PItchers per plate appearance (MLB, at least 200 PA's, with notable Giants hitters), 277 qualifiers

1: Jayson Werth: 4.56

28. Fred Lewis: 4.15 (only Giants hitter above average)

MLB Average: 3.84

163. Travis Ishikawa: 3.78

170. Edgar Renteria: 3.76

212. Randy Winn: 3.65

GIANTS Average: 3.60

254. Aaron Rowand: 3.44

265: Nate Schierholtz: 3.37

276 (2nd last): Cristian Guzman, not a Giant: 3.12

... and drumroll

...

277 (and dead last): Bengie Molina: 3.08.

OBP (MLB, at least 200 PA's, with notable Giants hitters), 277 qualifiers

1. Albert Pujols: .438

50. Pablo Sandoval: .374

152. Fred Lewis: .338

158. Aaron Rowand: .336

MLB Average: .332

186: Travis Ishikawa: .325

191. Nate Schierholtz: .319

206: Randy Winn: .318

220: Edgar Renteria: .311

Giants Average: .308

231: Juan Uribe: .305

249: E. Burris: .292

...

And at 270 (out of 277 qualifying hitters in baseball): Bengie Molina: .268.

Ponder this for a second: Amongst the 277 hitters that qualify here, Bengie Molina ranks:

- 270th in OBP

- 277th in Pitches / Plate Appearance

-277th in BB (table not displayed here)

Any GM in the 21st century should be aware of the idiocy of this role; our GM and manager further it by batting Bengie Molina, he of the OBP repulsion, cleanup. When the team tells you this is what is determined to be valuable, we have an epic failure on our hands. If for Bengie Molina's continual presence at the cleanup spot alone, the Giants have no business bringing back Bruce Bochy and an offensive player evaluation system that is irrevocably broken.

EDIT - 11:06PM

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_12986610

Baggs apparently spends time around here; he notes the .268 OBP, and the 3.08 pitches per plate appearance. What's particularly interesting is the quote from Bochy:

No, no, we'll do what we think is best for the team," said Bochy, asked if he had to weigh Molina's pride and stature in the clubhouse. "We're not concerned for feelings. We've got to do what's right. He's one of the best clutch hitters, I think, in this game. Whether we keep him there or move him, he'll get it going. He can hit."

If Bochy truly believes in 1) clutch hitters and 2) that Bengie is amongst the best in baseball, the situation is even worse than we thought.

The Bengie Molina Paradox - or why the RBI totals don't matter

Aadik — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 05:28:27 -0000

There was an interesting discussion going on in this thread about the penalty of Bengie's base running, with the caveat offered by the original poster that he's still percieved Bengie as a good player and a good hitter. Suffice to say, I think this is broadly wrong, for a multitude of reasons, and I thought I'd bring it out here. Basically, much as we like Bengie, he's just not that great. In fact, I venture that Fred Lewis is a significantly more valuable player than Bengie Molina to the 2009 SF Giants, a fact that makes the Damon Bruce crowd go broke.

First, DINGERS.EXE aside, I present to you the basic line, per ESPN:

.256/.264/.436, for an OPS of .700.

Ponder that OBP for a second; Bengie has the 4th lowest OBP in baseball amongst qualifiers; 168th out of 172 hitters. No matter how much you slug, its very very hard to overcome that hurdle, a lesson most people understood 10 years ago. Bengie's Slugging percentage (at .436) is slightly above league average, but on an overall basis, the value doesn't add up. Don't believe me by slash alone? Take the advanced stat of your choice; looking purely at offensive contribution.

wRC (from Fangraphs) - in simple terms, how many runs have they created this year? In raw totals alone, Bengie Molina has been less impressive than many of our (sometimes deserved whipping boys) such as Lewis and Edgar.

the second stat (also not position adjusted) is wRAA, how has this person performed as compared to the average hitter in the league; therfore, you can see why Juan Uribe has only contributed about 14 wRC to the giants, he has been a slightly above average hitter when he has played; once again, the only Giants regular who's been significantly worse than Bengie Molina is Manny Burriss.

Player Position wRC wRAA

Aaron Rowand	OF	34.7	8.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	30.7	5.6
Randy Winn	OF	30.3	1.8
Fred Lewis	OF	24.5	0.3
Edgar Renteria	SS	19.2	-6.0
Bengie Molina	C	18.9	-7.0
Emmanuel Burriss	2B	15.4	-9.3
Juan Uribe	3B	14.1	0.6
Travis Ishikawa	1B	12.5	-2.7
Andres Torres	OF	4.2	0.8
Rich Aurilia	1B	3.8	-5.8
Nate Schierholtz	OF	2.9	-5.5
Matt Cain	P	1.8	-1.5

Okay, you say - what about positional adjustment? Surely Bengie's C as a C, has a lower baseline than that of Fred playing LF? Well, to again use the simplist positional adjustment metric, lets use VORP from BP; essentially, the value over a replacement scrub at the given position, offensively. VORP isn't directly comparable with wRC above because the baseline assumption isn't 0, but its still fairly low. Again, we see the same point; while BP's pitcher values for VORP may be insanely low (in fact, I think they may be 0) in fact, Matt Cain has contributed more offensive value to the Giants than Bengie, and Bengie's offensive value is essentially equivalent to that of Osris Matos (1 AB, a triple, is essentially 1 run of value above replacement). If that doesn't sum up his value, I'm not sure what does.

16.6

14.2

7.4

5.4

3.8

2.3

1.5

1.4

0.9

10.

Osiris Matos

SFN

0.9

11.

Bengie Molina

SFN

0.8

Now clearly, there are 2 aspects I haven't measured above - baserunning and defense. Baserunning can be crudely estimated with a basic run matrix; using BP's statistics, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Bengie is the worst baserunner in baseball; last year, he was agout a -7 run player vs the average and this year, he's a -3 run player; conversly,Fred Lewis is a +3 runner this year. Over this year, the baserunning value differential between Fred and Bengie alone should be worth at least a couple of wins (~20 runs), and maybe more.

So that leaves us with defense;with the full caveat that its probably way too early in the season to use UZR's or your defensive metric of choice, Fred Lewis has a UZR of 0.8; his UZR/150 is 4.2, suggesting that he's about 4 runs better defensively than your average LF (IT was 3.5 last year, so I'm willing to accept this is a reasonable sample). Now C defense is brutal to measure (and many defense metrics just throw up their hands and pass), but I think anyone would be hard pressed to argue Bengie is elite at this; ignoring poor metrics like his CS% (which is 19.2%, per THT), let us assume optismitically that Bengie is at least as good defensively as Fred; ie, so far this year, he's been a +1 defensive player so we can take that off the tabel.

Fred Lewis has created more runs than Bengie Molina (wRC); when he's played, he's been a more productive player than Bengie Molina (wRAA), and even adjusting for positional scarcity, he's been a better hitter (by VORP), although not my much. When we further take base running into account, Fred Lewis is a better player.

The broader point here though is not that about Lewis; this is very simplistic, quick and dirty summary with reasonable holes to pick (ie, Fred sitting against LHP improves his wRAA, for example), but mainly to raise this point - whatever metric you use, Bengie Molina is probably the 2nd worst regular on the Giants; Manny Burris is the only guy who has done less. Adjusting for positional scarcity (but not for defense) even Edgar Renteria (he of the immortal .259/.330/.333 line) has been a better or equivalent offensive player to Bengie.

The 49ers are going to get Crabtree

Aadik — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 21:16:30 -0000

Wow. That's seem like good luck that's very out of character for a SF-based franchise. If they pick up another RB, a lineman, and an edge-rusher later, it seems like a decent draft for them

Anyone else watching the draft? Comments other than LOL Raiders (which is appropriate again today)? I'm not a big NFL fan compared to baseball, but still interested.

PS - $42M guaranteed for Stafford - this should be interesting.

FanFest 2009

Aadik — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:16:11 -0000

So,

anyone been to one of these before? I have to be up in the city on Saturday anyway, and wanted to drop by for a couple of hours if its fun/entertaining, and because damnit, I need baseball to be back already. People planning to go from here? Figure if we get a large enough flock of McCoven, can grab a beer or something before (9AM beer - always a good start) or after. I'm looking forward to deluding myself on how this will be our year.

Great BP Piece

Aadik — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:08:08 -0000

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7937

A couple of excerpts (keeping it short with copyright)

Look, I’m no radical, but I’ve never understood why we allow in sports what we would never allow in other professions. Engineering firms don’t draft the top engineers and pay them below-market rates, and while the early careers of attorneys can be daunting, they get to choose a firm to give 100 hours a week to for a few years. ...

We also wouldn’t tell them they had to work for a lousy firm, or in a city they might hate, far from their families. As a nation, we wouldn’t stand for that kind of thing, but we do in sports. In sports, we’re handing over the prime of players’ careers without ever giving them a chance to find out what they were worth. For many players, the step from amateur to professional is, in fact, the only time in their lives that they will have any leverage at all in their salary, if not their employer or place of work or management team. It is embarrassing to take so much away from them, then complain that they’re not being reasonable when it comes to the one thing that they can negotiate. If coming out of college I’d been told that I had no choice but to go copyedit for the Des Moines Register, you can be damn sure that I would have been a jerk about salary.

Seriously, this is the point that way too many people ignore - the idea that the players have some sort of duty to sacrifice "For the good of the game", or whatever bogeyman we owe today. I'd like Buster Posey to be a Giant, but damn if I think he's wrong to maximize every penny he can get at this point.

Baseball Prospectus - Bay Area Pizza Feeds

Aadik — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 22:17:30 -0000

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/ - see Gary's post
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/

Anyone else going? I went a few years ago, and generally had a good time, and its a pretty decent cause.

Details on the events page - March 18 and March 27 - I'll be attending the March 18 in Menlo Park, which means Round Table.... spectacular.

The Vizquel deal gets worse...

Aadik — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 05:02:46 -0000

From Rotoworld:

Omar Vizquel's soon-to-be-finalized contract with the Giants will be worth $5.5 million and include a vesting option for 2009.
The option, which becomes guaranteed if he plays in 140 games, is worth $5.2 million. The 40-year-old Vizquel will be getting a raise from the $4 million he made last season even though he was as bad of a hitter as there was in the NL. When the Giants say they don't have the money to pursue Alex Rodriguez, it's because of decisions like this.

Seriously? Why does Brian Sabean have a job? Does he have a secret stash of Abe Vigoda pics that make him happy? YOu're giving a 40 year old who was the WORST offensive regular in baseball a 2 year deal? And you're giving him a raise?

Giants have made Lincecum available?

Aadik — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 19:37:08 -0000

From Rotoword:

Lincecum, their No. 1 pick in 2006, can be had for a quality bat."
Maybe he has Lincecum confused with Noah Lowry. It wouldn't be his sloppiest writing in the column. Ringolsby leads off his article with: "After giving up three of its top five pitching prospects in July of 2006 to acquire Livan Hernandez from Arizona ... Arizona finds itself searching for rotation help." Ignoring the obvious gaffe that they made the trade with themselves, the Diamondbacks actually gave up only two prospects and the deal was done in August. But other than that, he's nearly spot on. OK, back to Lincecum. He simply cannot be had for a quality bat. Maybe he'll be available in return for an exceptional bat. The only player we can think of that qualifies and might be available is Miguel Cabrera.

Seriously? Who wants to lead the pitchfork brigade?

Fun with Numbers

Aadik — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 00:44:59 -0000

Obviously, this is cherry picking - but still - I found this amusing in light of another discussion.

Pitcher A in his free agent season - 27 year old LHP: ERA+ of 139, 217 IP, 99 BB, 151K's, and 10 HR's.

Zito: 28 year old LHP: ERA+ of 116, ERA+ of 116, 221 IP, 99 BB, 151K's, and 27 HR's.

Ladies and gents, we've signed Mike Hampton.