SB Nation User Blog: Aaronstampler

I'm a dummy.

Aaronstampler — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:45:14 -0000

Nothing to see here, move along.

I Love You Rikkido, But Gimme a Break

Aaronstampler — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:17:19 -0000

A humble rebuttal to my friend's hyperbolic post, and some draft thoughts after the jump.

1. It's not like they traded up to steal Blair. He fell to them. Plummeted, like a dinosaur-smashing crash-landing alien spaceship that ran out of it's power source: LIQUID AWESOME. The same way that Tony fell at 28 and Manu fell at 57 and the lottery balls fell for Tim and David. Sometimes you just get lucky. If the team with the 36th pick landed Blair, we'd all be bitching out Pop and RC out right now.

Well, at least I would.

Unless I have some real proof that these guys whispered in other people's ears and spread false rumors ("Oh, what's that fellow GM, you like that Blair guy? That's mighty brave of you, to take a guy who told us in his interview he has been battling an addiction to crystal meth and child pornography. I guess you guys really have faith in your veteran leadership to be a good influence on him") to deliberately make Blair's stock drop, all they did was make a common sense pick. Good for us, but certainly nothing to give them standing ovations about. It's like, "Congratulations for being less stupid than the other GMs."

2. I hate to say I told you so gang, but I TOLD YOU SO.

The best thing that can happen to the Spurs, long term, would be for them to get bounced, emphatically, out of the playoffs in four or five games in the first round. Only then will we have a mandate for change. The team has a glaring need at small forward. It needs to embrace the concepts of youth and athleticism, and contrary to popular belief, there is already some of that on the roster (Hill, Hairston, Mahinmi, Gist) but for one reason or another, it hasn't gotten on the floor. I don't know if they can usher Fin or Bruce or even Fab out the door, but it would certainly be nice if they tried. Gooden is a free agent and I doubt he'll be back. The team needs a big who can defend and rebound on one end of the floor and space the court for Duncan on the other end. They need viable backups for Tony and Manu. They need a coach who isn't blind to those needs. Pop has more talent in Austin than he does on his bench, and it's about time he realizes it. - April 8, 2009

As I made quite clear in both my Manu injury eulogy column and in my postseason prediction, the second that it was announced Manu was gone for the year, the absolute best thing that could happen for the franchise would be a quick, humiliating, embarrassing first round loss in the playoffs. No gutty efforts into Round 3, no nail-biting seven game loss in Round 2, just a flat out first round ass whooping. A beating so total and definitive in scope, that only the most ignorant and homerish Spurs fan could think "Well if they had Manu they'd have gone all the way, so let's not change anything."

The Spurs went with the status quo the last two years, under the silly premise fueled by Pop that, "The Defending Champions deserve a chance to be the Defending Champions."

As if the '07 team was perfect. As if they didn't catch some massive breaks in not having to play Detroit or Dallas. I'm not saying they wouldn't have beaten those teams, but it would've been a heckuva lot tougher than Utah and Cleveland.

Disgusted and disillusioned Spurs fans responded to the joke of a roster that management/ownership put on the floor last year the only way they could - with their wallets. Season tickets weren't being re-newed. Finally Holt got the message and we had a mandate for change: Pay over the luxury tax and hopefully make up the money back with home playoff gates, vs. a whole season of Miami Heat/Memphis Grizzlies like attendance and major money loss.

Finally the Spurs woke up and realized that they couldn't win a title with two below-average starters, a crappy bench and zero youth and athleticism on the roster. They realized they couldn't go the cheapo route and hope to contend, unless they got ridiculously lucky with injuries. Finally they spent what it takes to have a legit starting forward and a legit wing athlete on the team (though I'm not a big fan of his). Finally they realized (or perhaps remembered) that the draft is a tool for teams to replenish their rosters with cheap young talent and not an annoying nuisance best dealt with by trading away your picks or picking foreigners you never have any intention of actually signing/playing/paying.

It's almost like somebody whispered in Pop's ear that they got Manu and Tony by drafting smartly (albeit luckily) in the draft. I could've sworn he had completely forgotten, thinking that those two were just magically beamed aboard to the roster one day.

I feel like the burden of Jefferson's ridiculous contract is karmic payback to Holt for the way he clusterfucked the Scola thing with his frugality. Finally, we can exorcise that demon and admit the truth: It wasn't Scola's fault, it wasn't Tau's fault, it was Holt's fault. He was the reason why Scola wasn't on the team. If he wanted Luis bad enough (and judging by Scola's play in the '04 Olympics, how can you not?) he would've made it happen, some how, some way.

You think if the Lakers owned Scola's rights they wouldn't have found a way to bring him over? Please. And all that bullshit afterward about how Scola and Duncan's styles wouldn't mesh. How insulting.

Anyway, all is forgiven now. Holt's paid for his mistake. Water under the bridge.

As for the DeJuan Blair drafting, that's just perfect. For so long I've cast envious glares at Brandon Bass, Paul Millsap, Carl Landry, Leon Powe, Glenn Davis, etc. All of them are stocky, undersized power forwards drafted in the second round because of doubts about their size and athleticism, and they've all carved roles for themselves in the league just by playing hard, rebounding, and taking only high percentage shots.

Finally, we've got one of those guys on our team. Our Millsap. Our Big Baby.

Like Rikkido said (through L.J. Ellis of SpursTalk), Blair had the highest PER, the best rebound rate, and the best offensive rebound rate of anybody drafted this year. Call me crazy, but I think that makes him more than your average second round prospect. Forget just the ceremonial act of faith of having him on the roster. If Pop doesn't have this guy in the rotation from Day 1, then it's all the proof you'll need that not only does he not get it, but that he will never get it.

3. My vision for the Spurs is quite simple. I think we can be like a better version of the Celtics. Allow me to explain.

Duncan would be like our KG, only he can score in the fourth quarter and isn't a psychopath. Advantage Spurs.

Mahinmi would be like our Kendrick Perkins. Admittedly, it would take A LOT of faith by Pop for him to get there, and Ian would have to prove he can stay healthy for ten minutes, but he could be the shot blocker/rebounder we need out there with the starters. Advantage Celtics.

Jefferson would be like Pierce, our perimeter stopper, and a guy who can score inside and out. Advantage Celtics.

Manu would be like Ray-Ray, only with balls. Advantage Spurs.

Tony would be like Rondo, but with a jump shot, and his coach doesn't openly despise him. Advantage Spurs.

I see Blair as our big baby and (wait for it) TIAGO SPLITTER as our Powe. If we're gonna go for it, we might as well go balls out and spend what it takes to buy out Splitter and get him playing here with the big boys. Screw signing some has been pampered 35 year old veteran with the MLE. Use that money to get younger and more talented. Let's have a young, athletic bench with a couple of dobermans to get after people. It would freak out the establishment. Advantage Spurs.

Bonner, of course, would be our Scalabrine. Advantage Spurs

Jack McClinton (whom I know nothing about, because college basketball is for dorks) could be our Eddie House. Because R.C. Buford told me so. Advantage Celtics

Finally, the piece-de-resistance: Tony Allen and Starbury vs. George Hill and Roger Mason Jr. Huge Advantage Spurs.

That is my dream. Make it happen Spurs. If you want to show me you truly are committed to youth and athleticism and winning, you'll find a way to get Splitter here this year instead of somebody like Marcin Gortat or Zaza Pachulia who I know we'll wind up with. At the very least, the absolute minimum, you'll find a place for Gist on the roster and Blair in the rotation.

Pop is the key to it all. I'm not at all convinced he's learned anything. The moves we've made, getting rid of the vets, bringing in Jefferson and drafting Blair are all positive signs. But until he actually plays the young guys and sticks with them in difficult, adverse times, we won't know. Pop has to prove to me he's ready to coach again and that he's hungry. Last year was too much like the Phil Jackson special - roll the ball out to the veterans, sit back and do nothing.

A sign that Pop has learned will come in July. If he doesn't bring back the graybeards we shipped to the Bucks, then he just might get it. If he does bring them back, well Blair could be an Austin Toro for all we know.

Come on Pop. Bring Splitter. You can do it.

I hate to be a Negative Nancy but...

Aaronstampler — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:29:26 -0000

Yeah, I'm officially concerned about the Jefferson trade, for quite a few reasons.

Guess which of these two gentlemen I'd rather have?

My initial reaction to the trade? A tiny flicker of excitement, before my brain kicked in, and the more I learn, the more I think, the less I like it. I know I'm in the minority here, but as a stand alone move I don't like this. I don't like this one bit.

First of all, I've never been much impressed by Jefferson as a player. I never thought of him as a difference maker in any way. If anything, he was the epitome of the kind of guy that made me appreciate being a Spurs fan, the kind of overrated, grossly overpaid, score 18-give up 22 player that our organization has smartly avoided like the herp for the better part of a decade.

Yes, Jefferson shot 40% from downtown last season. Yes, he's 6-7 and a legitimate small forward. And yes, he's likely to throw down a dunk or two per game. Those things are all well and good.

But let's look closer. He's not that young, he's 29. He finished a -104 last season, the second worst figure on the team. The team's defense and offense, was better with him OFF the floor, according to 82games.com. The guy is a shitty, unwilling passer, our offense has always emphasized making the extra pass and last year Jefferson averaged one assist for every 15 minutes of floor time.

Should I go on?

Okay, how about this. His PER last year was 15.45, barely abover average and the second lowest mark of his career, in what was supposed to be his prime. Also, for a guy with his athleticism, he came up with only 66 steals and 14 blocks in nearly 3,000 minutes on the floor. Not exactly an active defender. Also, the guy had 20 double-doubles in the '05-06 season. He's had five since.

Basically we're getting a player on the decline, he's getting paid a ridiculous salary, he's on the books for three years, he's not a Spurs type of player, and he's going to have to learn a whole new offensive and defensive system, where traditionally players have struggled here in their first seasons.

Now let's look at how this move impacts the rest of the team.

Obviously my first concern is how this effects Manu. What this acquisition tells me is that Pop and the rest of the FO have no confidence whatsoever that he's going to have a good season next year, and that even if he does, they're still not planning on re-signing him. Suppose Manu does surprise everyone and has another 6MOY-worthy season next year, and the team offers him a 3-year, 30M contract. That would mean 59 MILLION SMACKERS (22.2 for Tim, 12.6 for Tony, 14.2 for RJ, 10.0 for Manu) committed to four players in '10-11. That would mean 57.4 MILLION SMACKERS to four guys in '11-12 (18.7 for Tim, 15.2 for RJ,13.5 for Tony, 10.0 for Manu).

Does that sound realistic to you? Me 'neither.

It looks like a one year window, at best, for the Spurs to contend with Manu and Jefferson. After that, it appears that they've made their decision and will move on with Jefferson as their third wheel.

And that's IF they give Manu the whole year. Remember, he's an expiring contract too, just like Bruce, Kurt and Fab were. His contract has major value for a team looking to add a star for a postseason run at the trade deadline and then have that salary cap room to play with the next summer. I think the odds of Manu being traded this seaon went up like 500%, and it wouldn't shock me at all to see him moved even in the draft, if they want to get into the top five or so. The Washington deal makes way more sense now, with the Spurs getting bigs like Andray Blatche and Etan Thomas/Brendan Haywood and the fifth pick (for James Harden, a lefty shooting guard out of Arizona State who models his game after Manu) for Manu.

Basically, I'm going to be a nervous wreck on Thursday night now, at least until the first ten or so picks are off the board, and I'm already mentally preparing for the worst. My Ginobili jersey will, in all likelihood, be a throwback after this season. Jefferson's monster salary makes it a near certainty.

Even if Manu isn't traded at all this year, I can see what the team is thinking. It's his contract year, let's get one last monster season out of him when he's super motivated to prove everyone wrong, and then let him go anyway, since he's never gonna do it again.

Finally, we have to consider the lack of bigs on the roster. Right now we have Tim, puddin' Bonner, and Ian. Mahinmi hasn't played a meaningful minute in his career and is as fragile as an egg. Surely Pop can't be betting the farm on him. And we saw last year that Bonner has too many faults to be counted on. Maybe James Gist will come aboard, but he's a bit undersized to count on for solid rebounding. The mid-level exception is our only hope, and it better be used on somebody worth a damn. Again, I'm cringing in fear about a Washington/Manu draft trade. It makes too much sense now.

I hardly recognize the Spurs anymore. They're all but completely abandoning defense and rebounding with this trade. It appears the front office was inspired by Orlando's playoff run and are thinking Orlando's offense + experience = championship. We'll see how it works out. I'm sure it won't be a problem at all for Tony and Manu that this fuckwit has the second highest salary on the team now.

It's gonna be a couple of rough nights at the Stampler household.

Existential question for my PtR family

Aaronstampler — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:34:32 -0000

I'm in quite a pickle here, so please help.

So my dad got married the other day to some Turkish lady who isn't my mother. She's got a 23-year old daughter who might be the most attractive Turkish girl I've ever seen. She's kind of got this bucktooth thing going on with her teeth, but she's tall and skinny and has a figure like a supermodel with a really pretty face. Also, she's smart (studying to be a lawyer) and really nice. Basically she's completely out of my league.

Poll

So should I use my internet blogging sensation charm to try to hook up with her?

Why not, it's not like you're related to her by blood.

32 votes

God no! She's your family now, that's gross!

12 votes

Don't even try it, she'll be totally creeped out.

29 votes

I would need to see some scantily clad pictures of her to make an informed decision. Link?

68 votes

You don't even like girls, Stampler. You're just trying to make Manu jealous.

35 votes

176 votes | Poll has closed

Howdy

Aaronstampler — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:23:27 -0000

ZOMG! Stampler Live Blog Draft!

Not sure yet what I'll be doing on draft night but if I can, I will live blog it, just because I missed you all so much. I'll even do it at the expense of actually playing basketball, which I normally do on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

If you're curious, my game is decidedly white, European, and soft. In other words, I'm the ideal Spur. I have almost no handle to speak of, my back to the basket game is beyond pitiful, despite me being one of the taller guys out there, generally, and my rebounding is sporadic.

My strengths? Pretty creative passer, with decent vision, a fairly decent, ever-improving three point shot (like Manu I take a higher percentage of my shots from beyond the stripe every year), a trusty Duncan-like banker from the elbows, and I'm a good shot blocker, though not nearly the Robinson-type swatting machine I was in my early 20's.

Most frustrating of all, I'm Finley-level streaky. Some games I'm like the best guy out there in a 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (for example, in one 3-on-3 game our team were decided underdogs on paper but we won 19-17 and I had 11 points), other games it looks like I've never played before, missing lay-ups, bricking open threes, getting outhustled for boards, making dumb turnovers, your basic nightmare Manu package.

Where was I? So yeah, I'm probably not going to play this upcoming Thursday so I can live blog this stupid, talentless draft where I hardly know any of the players and where the Spurs don't have any of the first 36 picks. I'm psyched!

For the record, if it wasn't obvious enough, I don't see any help coming from said draft, and I doubt that the current roster, plus Mahinmi and Gist, if they're even a part of it next year, and a healthy Manu will be enough to get us over the hump. The team simply must need to add (and subtract) some guys through free agency, and I'm trying to not be too skeptical about their plans, but we'll see.

However I have not abandoned all hope. My Philadelphia Eagles are actually a source of comfort and inspiration for once. For most of the free agency period, they did nothing. Their sexiest signing was Stacy Andrews, a slightly above-average right tackle formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals. They had seven veteran free agents of their own, the majority of which I wanted to return, and they let all but one go. The fans were practically rioting.

But then, a few weeks later, they signed a decent safety in Sean Jones from the Cleveland Browns, an athletic fullback I've always liked in Leonard Weaver from the Seattle Seahawks, and their real coup, getting two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters from the Buffalo Bills for a first round pick.

Add to that a boffo draft, where they picked up wide receiver Jeremy Maclin from Missouri, the top rated guy at his position in many team's draft boards, running back LeSean McCoy from Pittsburgh who is perfectly suited for our offense, and an athletic tight end fifth round steal in Cornelius Ingram from Florida, and now our offense looks positively loaded and a lot of the experts out there are predicting a Super Bowl trip for my Iggles.

The Eagles front office is cheap and filled with idiots. If they can have get it right this offseason, then there's no reason the Spurs can't. You just have to be creative with the cap and in your trades, thorough with your scouting and evaluations and realistic about the strengths and weaknesses of your team. Tim, Manu, Tony, and George Hill? Strengths. Everyone else? Weaknesses. It's that easy. I should charge them a consultation fee.

Anyway, come join me as I make fun of the ESPN nitwits, the players' obese mothers, and in all likelihood, some of the insightful things you witty sheeple will write in the comments section. If you're really lucky you'll get to witness me completely lose my shit when the Spurs trade Manu.

If that ever comes to pass, I promise to post a rant so epic that not only will it get me permanently banned from PtR, but almost certainly the entire internet as well.

Which, if you really think about it, would probably be good for me, but I digress.

Hey there sexy, how YOU doin'?

Aaronstampler — Fri, 29 May 2009 07:31:21 -0000

I just quoted Joey Tribiani. These things happen when you're single, unemployed and it's 12:31 a.m., I suppose.

Sexy Bikini Link

You filthy perverts.

Anyway, some quick notes.

1. I was wrong about Cle-Orl Game 4. It wasn't low scoring at all, Mike Brown didn't take away Orlando's threes (I think I've severely over-estimated him, and my opinion of him wasn't high to begin with) and he didn't make Hedo and Rashard drive. He basically panicked after the team lost Game 3 and reverted back to the defensive strategy (or lack thereof) of Games 1 and 2. Apparantely Brown was the only person in the building who didn't get that the Cavs lost Game 4 because of their crappy offense, not their fairly respectable defense.

2. One prediction I did get right in the game was that whichever point guard played better, his team would win. Alston destroyed Mo Williams, so they won.

3. The reverse happened in Game 5, so thusly, the Cavs won.

4. Even with all of their threes and their obvious advantages from top to bottom, LeBron is still basically outplaying the entire Orlando team one on five. Even when Orlando wins, they're just doing it by going on runs during the five or six minutes a game that LeBron is on the bench.

5. I think Orlando will win Game 6, but Howard's gonna need to have a big night and avoid fouls. And it'd be nice of Alston to show up.

6. Boy knock me over with a feather, who woulda thunk that J.R. Smith would completely stink in a Game 5 on the road? That's not the big game player I know.

7. Nuggets will win Game 6 easily, but lose their composure down the stretch in LA in Game 7.

8. Of course the calls won't go their way. It doesn't help their cause when a third of their rotation is comprised of complete jackasses. You think the league wants to showcase that for the casual fans in the Finals? The Spurs may have been boring, but they weren't tasteless and classless.

9. I had a long day Friday. Lunch with dad for the first time in forever (we aren't close), then basketball for the third day in a row, then dinner with mom and her boyfriend where I caught the second half of Orlando-Cleveland, and then I spent the past two hours writing (not this).

10. Stampler news might be coming soon. Brace yourselves. All you ladies that have major crushes on me may need to sit down.

Because... you know... most people use the computer while standing.

/moron

Ten random (yet obvious) observations about Cavs-Magic Game 3 and then a rant about two of the Nuggets

Aaronstampler — Mon, 25 May 2009 07:05:14 -0000

Catchy title, huh?

Ugly game with a capital UGH. Still, the right team won, and I won my bet with Roh, so I'm happy. Anyway, here's some notes. While Simmons is busy complaining about the refs and making stupid lame jokes about Mike Brown and Stan Van Gundy, I, the unemployed broke fatty who DOESN'T have a 720-page basketball book coming out and ISN'T campaigning like a nitwit for a GM job, am actually offering you sound basketball analysis.

Honestly, I don't know where you people would be without me.

1. I felt all along that Orlando had a great chance to win this series, or at least be competitive in it (that's why I made the bet) because I felt that the Magic have the second, third, and fourth best players between the two teams. Nothing has happened thus far to sway my opinion in the least. In fact, when you factor in Mickael Pietrus and Rafer Alston, one could argue that five of the best six players in this series are on Orlando.

2. I also felt all along that Alston is more of a versatile, useful player at this stage than Williams. Historically Williams has had the better career, but Cleveland isn't using him in the fashion Milwaukee did and it's hurting both him and the team. With Milwaukee he was a scoring point guard, but he still initiated the offense and was used to controlling the play and making the decisions. Under Mike Brown he's been reduced to a catch-and-shoot guy, and that's not his game. Sure, he had a career high in PER, but that'll happen when all you do is get wide open jumpers against crappy teams. Playoff teams play better D and close out better, don't give you as many easy things and consequently, he's struggled.

Alston has far more experience than Williams playing off the ball and not being the focal point of the offense. He played for years with T-Mac and Yao, so he's used to either dumping it in the post and playing off the big man (like he does with Howard) or letting a swingman initiate the offense (like the Magic do with Hedo). Alston can run an offense, but he's equally comfortable both ways.

3. All that being said, imagine if Jameer Nelson were healthy. This series wouldn't even be competitive.

4. 86 free throws seems like a lot, and it is, and the refs probably erred on the side of caution a few too many times, but I don't think they were that horrible. The Cavs were being very physical and fouling a lot. They really had no choice. No one on their front court can guard anyone on Orlando's front court. It's either foul or give up easy shots. When you're on the wrong end of athletic mismatches everywhere and you don't foul, you know what happens? You give up 53% shooting nights like the Spurs often did all year. By fouling, being physical and trying to get into the Magic's fragile heads, the Cavs at least gave themselves a chance. And fouling Howard is always a smart play.

5. However, the previous comment doesn't mean the refs were completely innocent. They did EVERYTHING they could to keep Cleveland in the game. They gave LeBron 24 free throw attempts when he probably deserved 14 or 16, and they fouled out Howard in 28 minutes on some real ticky tack fouls. The way Cleveland was shooting, this game should've been a blowout for Orlando. I can't stress enough how poorly the Cavs played offensively.

6. Either Orlando made more of an effort to pound the ball inside with Howard or Cleveland altered their defensive strategy to stay home on shooters and make Howard beat them at the line. Orlando wasn't getting the same looks tonight that they got in Games 1 and 2. They won, because of their defense, but it will be interesting to see how, or if, they adjust in Game 4. Both Turkoglu and Lewis had relative off nights and Orlando still won easily, and I doubt that'll happen again.

7. Where Cleveland is really losing this series is on the bench. Mike Brown is desperately, futilely, trying to find a combination that works and none of his reserves can score consistently at all. He gave up on Boobie Gibson long ago and now it looks like Wally World is closed for the summer. Neither of them play because they suck defensively. Pavlovic, Big Ben and Joe Smith are okay in their own end, but they can't score. 20-8 bench points today and again, Pietrus is the difference.

8. The secret goat of Game 3? LeBron James. I know it sounds crazy to call a guy with 41-7-9 a goat, but James was a complete nightmare from the perimeter tonight. 1-8 from threes and was 1-7 from mid-range Js as well. Nine of his eleven field goals were lay-ups and dunks. The way everyone else on the team is struggling, LeBron's gotta shoot better than 2-15 on jumpers to open up the game for everyone else.

9. Of course, he's already doing everything he possibly can. The rest of his team just isn't all that good, and it's the major reason I've never been sold on Cleveland's championship mettle. Jordan had Pippen. Mo Williams is no Pippen. In fact, I can't think of a single NBA champion who's second best player was worse than Williams. For years Williams was the second best player on Milwaukee, and that team went nowhere.

10. Whoever wins Game 4 wins the series. As it stands, because of the adjustments they've made, I think Cleveland is in better position to win Game 4, in a close, low-scoring game. LeBron will shoot better from the field and Howard will be worse from the line. For Orlando to go up 3-1, they'll have to figure out a new way to get Hedo and Rashard going.

[Stampler's note: 4Him brought up something in his comment after I made a prediction on Game 4 of Lakers-Nuggets on the first comment, and I realized I haven't been clear enough about a few things. So I'm attaching it all on the bottom and just making it one super long post. Sorry for the confusion.]

BONUS PREDICTION

The Nuggets will beat the hell out of LA today and it’ll be over by half time. An exhausted Kobe will be more than happy to leave Denver with the split and won’t put up much of a fight and Phil Jax will smartly wave the towel early, give Bryant and Gasol some rest and play his scrubs 20+ minutes each.

He might even use the game as an excuse to play Bynum major minutes to try and salvage their relationship and see whether he can get anything useful from him the rest of the way.

[This is me responding to 4Him]

1. Despite it certainly looking like they're the better, deeper team, I still think it'd be extremely unlikely for the Magic to win a Game 7 in Cleveland. IMHO the only way they win this series is by winning all their home games.

2. Like I said in point # 10, right now, with the adjustments by both teams being what they are, while my heart is rooting for Orlando, my brain tells me Cleveland is better positioned to win Game 4. Their defense has become much more vigilant in taking away the threes and is forcing Orlando to throw it into the post with Howard, where he's then immediately fouled. They're making Howard beat them at the line and it's a smart move. I think Orlando's counter-adjustment would have to be for Hedo and Lewis to pump-fake and drive aggressively to the basket. I don't know if either have the will to do this consistently or the handle to do it without having a bunch of turnovers and charges. Lewis, in particular, does not like getting banged around.

I think Cleveland is trying to make Orlando play like Denver, where all their forwards go hard to the basket and get a bunch of free throws. I don't know if the Magic are up to it. They're going to need a tremendous amount of heart and desire to beat the Cavs in an elimination type of situation. They're not going to win this series raining open threes. Mike Brown will make sure of it.

If Orlando doesn't win it won't be because of talent or skill. It will be because Van Gundy wasn't smart enough to make these adjustments and because his players weren't tough enough to do what needed to be done. Period.

3. As for the Lakers-Nuggets series, please don't misconstrue my Game 4 prediction of a Nuggets blowout as an endorsement for them winning the series. Far from it. As is the case with the Magic against the Cavs, the Nuggets are the deeper, more talented team top to bottom. However, while they're not lacking heart and toughness like Orlando may be, Denver's problem is worse: They're lacking brains.

Apologies for the Wizard of Oz reference, but whatever nagging doubts I had about the Nuggets were confirmed once and for all with their despicable Game 3 showing at home. They will not beat LA four of out of seven times because two critical members of their rotation are complete morons.

J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin absolutely killed them. They have rubber-stamped the series to the Lakers.

Smith, who just might be the most overrated player in the NBA, is what we in the scientific community call "a fucking dumbass." Carmelo Anthony was red-hot in the first quarter of Game 3, and he played the first 5:07 of the second quarter.

Unfortunately for he and his teammates and all of Denver's fans, he happened to share that 5:07 of floor time with Smith. The same Smith who willfully and inexcusably ignored Anthony (one shot attempt in that 5:07) so that he could indulge himself with four heinous bricks, three from deep. Anthony lost his rhythm and was a non-factor the rest of the game, and Smith finished with a Finleyesque statline of 10 points on 15 shots. The one time he hit a big shot, a three at the third quarter buzzer, he called Sasha Vujacic a "motherfucker" right in front of the refs and got T'd up.

Now I have no doubt whatsoever that Mr. Vujacic does in fact engage in sexual congress with his own mother. Still, you don't say that with a zebra right next to you. That's just stupid.

And Martin... well as Spurs fans we're well versed with his buffoonery by now. This guy has like 48 I don't know, THOUSAND tattoos and struts around like he's the toughest man who ever walked God's Earth, and then, when it matters most instead of taking the ball to the basket strong he jumps parallel to the basket and throws up (literally, it looks like he's vomiting the basketball) this no chance double pump weak ass SHIT that's just a scud missile off the backboard; the kind of shot that would make you cringe and think to yourself, "Who let this clown play with us?" if it happened in your weekend pickup game.

Mark Cuban was absolutely right in asserting that Martin is a punk and a thug. He should've added "idiot" and "bitch" while he was at it. But still, you don't say that to the guy's mom. That shit ain't right.

Anyway, my point is that because of Martin and Smith, the Lakers will find a way to win this series, most likely in seven games. Anthony and Billups (and definitely my boy Andersen) deserve better.

4. Finally, I might as well get it out of the way now - I don't know who's going to win the Eastern Conference Finals, but I still think the Lakers will win the whole thing regardless. I like their one-two combination better than anyone else's, and even if he's only half as interested and alert as he once was, Phil Jax is still a better coach than the other three guys.

5. But yeah, because of Turkoglu, and because I hate the other three teams, go Magic.

Clearing out the basketball scrapbook...

Aaronstampler — Thu, 21 May 2009 06:01:10 -0000

Just some random thoughts I wanted to get out of my system...

1. Bill Simmons is a fucking idiot.

I can't believe this guy wrote a 700+ page book about basketball (which figures to be one long love poem to LeBron, Durant, and all things Celtic) and he knows so god damn little about basketball. I'm perfectly at ease admitting the guy knows more about personnel and how stuff like salary caps and trades work than I do, but for basic basketball x's and o's strategy, I think I definitely understand the game better than Simmons.

He's blaming George Karl for the Nuggets losing Game 1 last night because of a bad inbounds play with Anthony Carter as the inbounder like that one play lost the game. George Karl didn't tell his team to miss a bunch of free throws. He didn't tell them to give up 17 offensive rebounds to the Lakers. He certainly didn't tell Kenyon Martin to foul Kobe 20 feet from the basket with less than a minute to go. The players blew the game, not the coach. Even in the first half, when I saw Denver missing all those freebies, I knew it would come back to bite them. Your margin for error in winning a road playoff game in LA or Cleveland is small. You have to play almost a perfect game. You just can't piss away 10 free points like Denver did and expect to come away with the win. And Martin has always been a dumb player, and not clutch at all.

2. No really, Bill Simmons is a fucking idiot.

The Sports Fella had an amusing chat today where he reccomended that the Spurs trade Tony for - get this -

For instance, a deal that makes sense to me is Parker to the Wolves for Randy Foye, the No. 6 pick and expiring contracts. Something like that. And if you're the Wolves, you'd do a deal like that because that gives you a foundation of Jefferson, Love and Parker... you need 3 building blocks to contend and those are 3 good ones. Reminds me of the Ray Allen/Boston trade a little.

Oh yeah, that makes total sense. Let's trade our superstar for a scrub, the 6th draft pick of what you termed "the poop sandwich" draft, and some expiring contracts. Even if those contracts and getting rid of Tony's contract opened up 30M of cap room, I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to waste what might be Duncan's last "good" year, and for all we know Manu's as well, on a team that has no chance to win and is just waiting for 2010 to do something.

The problem is that Simmons, in his fantasy of wanting to be the Wolves' GM, is thinking of the deal only from Minnesota's point of view. Since it'd be a great move for them, it makes sense to him. You know, I almost want him to get the job, just so he could be publicly humiliated by how awful he'd be at it. Maybe once the twentieth straight GM laughs in his face after Simmons pleads on the phone, "But... but... this trade works on ESPN's trade machine..." he'd get the hint that he was better off writing about Rocky IV.

I'm not going to admonish Simmons for having dreams and fantasies. I certainly have mine and recently most of them have involved my friend "Justine" from the Crazy Horse in San Francisco. But personally, a deal that makes sense to me is moving Tony and Red Rocket for LeBron. It totally works on the trade machine too.

3. I thoroughly enjoyed tonight's Orlando-Cleveland game.

And not just because my bet with my friend Roh is looking good. We bet before the series on how many games the Magic would win and I said at least two and he said none or one, so it's looking good for me, thanks to the sensational fourth quarters turned in by the Magic's forwards, my homey Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.

I think Orlando is an awful matchup for Cleveland. They can initiate their offense in three different ways. They can dump it in the post to Howard and have him kick out to shooters. They can run the show with Rafer Alston who's more of a traditional, versatile point guard than Mo Willams, who's basically just a short shooting guard. And of course, they can run things through Turkoglu, who's an awesome point forward and a very underrated passer/playmaker.

The Cavs on the other hand only have one guy who can initiate their offense. They also have only one guy who can post up. And in a bizarre coincedence, they're both the same guy. Neither Williiams nor West can create any good shots for themselves or their teammates.

James is a superstar and definitely the best player alive, but he can't beat a team like Orlando singlehandedly. He scored 49 tonight and it wasn't enough. I think he might have already thrown his best punch for the series. He's not going to average 50 unless he shoots a ridiculous percentage from three and hits way more free throws. When you factor in that Orlando has a much deeper bench (I can't believe nobody's noticed that the Cavs bench kinda sorta sucks) there's no way they're going to win the next four games straight. Orlando will make them work and an outright upset wouldn't shock me, but I doubt Stern would allow such a thing.

Stampler Says Hello From The Grave

Aaronstampler — Wed, 20 May 2009 19:06:34 -0000

Yeah, I know, I stopped writing, didn't tell anyone, didn't say good bye, I just quit, I suck, I suck, I suck. Mea Culpa my friends, mea culpa.

What can I say? Nothing. Which is why I left. I literally had nothing left to say. The Spurs playoff games were just terribly depressing to watch. I actually felt sorry for Tony out there, and I've never felt sorry for him before. Going out like that, in five games, to a mediocre Mavs team who themselves got their asses handed to them in the next round...

Well I don't want to say I told you so, but... you better believe I feel vindicated. Not that I wanted to be right necessarily. After all, I would've preffered to lose to ANYONE than the Mavs, but really I just wanted the season to end as soon as possible. It was just so damn frustrating watching them play without Manu, knowing they had no chance. It was just miserable. I was just sick and tired of it.

Now that we've had some time to reflect on it, I think we can make some definitive conclusions about the Spurs and the season.

1. Not only were the Spurs the worst Western Conference playoff team without Ginobili, regardless of their seed, but they lost in five games to the second worst team.

Who would've won a series between New Orleans and the Mavericks? Well, I'm sure lots of people would pick Dallas because they at least had a few close games with the Nuggets and never got blown out by 50 points or whatever, plus their guys seem to actually like their coach, unlike the NOOCH. However, New Orleans did beat Dallas in the playoffs handily the year before and CP3 would've been a nightmare match-up for Kidd. I think the Hornets would've taken that series.

2. Even with Manu, this team wasn't going to win squat.

Last year's playoff injury to Ginobili hurt a lot more than this year. The '08 team was neck-and-neck with the Lakers and I think a healthy Manu, especially at the level he was playing most of the season would've made the difference. This year the rest of the supporting cast was so old and decrepit that I'm not sure an '05 playoff Manu, an '03 playoff Duncan and an '09 playoff Tony could've propelled the rest of that sorry outfit to the title. They would've beaten Dallas, for sure, but getting by Denver would've been a dogfight and they would have nothing left for the Lakers.

3. George Hill was ready.

Am I crazy or was the kid one of our best players against the Mavs? He certainly didn't look intimidated or confused or soft out there. Definitely can't say that about some our grizzled veterans. Pop screwed up big time not playing him sooner.

4. Pop has lost his fastball.

I don't know how anyone can deny this anymore. He has become a caricature of himself and has taken his reluctance to play young, athletic players to absurd lengths. He ruined Mason for the season by making him the backup point guard. He was never the same after that. And now I think we can safely say that the Gooden acquisition ruined Bonner, as I feared it would. I'm not defending Matt. He was terrible and might need to find a new team. But it's undeniable that looking over his shoulder changed him for the worse. The guy's confidence is so damn fragile. Pop also should've played Bruce way more and Finley way less throughout the season.

Maybe he should pull a Pat Riley, retire to the front office and give the reigns to a younger assistant like Budenholzer who would have more patience with young players.

5. Even with a healthy Manu, this team can't contend if they don't find a decent small forward and either get something out of Mahinmi or find an athletic young big.

Pop only likes old guys, so could the Warriors make crazy ass Stephen Jackson available? They're going young anyway. Nachbar played in Europe last year and I think he's out there as a free agent. He'd be a nice rotation guy. Portland might have to give up Fernandez or Batum. People are out there and our front office better be looking. I want the roster to be dramatically different next year, but I realize it's most likely wishful thinking.

Anyway, that's all I feel like writing about the Spurs until I see some transaction cross the wire. I may lurk here from time to time and maybe even comment on something if it's interesting, but I don't know if/when I'm gonna write for PtR again. I don't want to say anything definitive and then let people down if I don't follow through with it or change my mind.

I have joined the prestigious Twitteratti recently and anyone and everyone is welcome to contact me there at twitter.com/aaronstampler

Have a nice summer everyone

Well... the world needs ditch diggers too

Aaronstampler — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:29:19 -0000

Game 2 Spurs 105, Mavs 84 (Series tied 1-1)

As some of you, our loyal fans, may know, Sports Blog Nation recently was sucked into the Yahoo Sports umbrella. Not content to merely be a haven for unemployed sports fans who need to whittle away the hours between their thrice-daily visits to gonzo porn sites, SBN is hoping to take advantage of the ~~completely decimated~~ crumbling newspaper industry and gain a foothold into mainstream sports media. The crew over at Blazer's Edge, a longtime popular SBN destination, have already parlayed their gig into free game credentials and locker room access (at least that's what Powell told me once back when we were on speaking terms). While obviously not all blogs here at SBN will be as successful as Blazer's Edge, it's a fairly safe bet that in the coming months and years more teams will follow Portland's lead and eventually some SBN blog will get similar access with the Spurs, maybe even this one.

The following is why it'll be a cold day in hell before anyone with a brain lets me within a hundred yards of Gregg Popovich...

"I don't care if you have to go through that whole team, just find a way to put the ball in the basket. But remember! Don't make this all about you."

(AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Stampler: Hey Pop, can you talk about Tony's spectacular Game 2 performance? What was the difference between tonight and Game 1 for him?

Pop: Well, I think the key for him was aggressive. He took 22 shots tonight whereas in Game 1 he only took 22.

Stampler: Um, that's exactly the same number.

:: Pop exaggeratedly rolls his eyes ::

Pop: It was the types of shots he took.

:: Pop looks around the room at fawning San Antonio media and points at me ::

Pop (to no one in particular): Do you believe this guy?

Stampler: Well, in Game 1, Tony attempted eleven layups, three floaters and eight jumpers. In Game 2, he attempted seven layups, five floaters and ten jumpers.

Pop (speaking really slow, as if to a child): Like I said, he was more aggressive.

Stampler: I'm sorry, but I'm afraid I don't understand. Are you saying shooting jumpshots is more aggressive than driving for layups?

Pop: No. He made more shots than Game 1, that's what made him more aggressive.

Stampler: I see. So making shots is more aggressive than missing them.

Pop: That is the standard for any team. If you are being more aggressive offensively it helps your teammates. He did a good job at staying aggressive and keeping it that way.*

Stampler: How about in Game 1, when he got called for two charging fouls against Barea and got called for a traveling violation? He wasn't being too aggressive then?

Pop: Obviously not, or else good things would have happened instead of bad things.

Stampler: But Pop, the TV cameras even caught you yelling at Tony, telling him to not to try to take the game over and try to make it a personal thing.

Pop: That never happened.

Stampler: But Pop, the cameras, we sa-

Pop: Does anyone have any questions about someone besides Tony?

Stampler: Actually Pop, since you asked, quite a few regular readers at my blog have been wondering why George Hill isn't seeing more regular playing time.

Pop: George who?

Stampler: George Hill, your rookie point guard? The guy you drafted last year out of IUPUI?

Pop: Oh, him. I think you answered your own question there, genius.

:: Pop sneers ::

Stampler: Again, I apologize but I'm confused.

Pop: Tell the readers of your "blog" (Pop pauses, does the air quotation thing with his fingers) whatever the hell that is, that the playoffs are a serious time of year and they're for experienced players.

Stampler: But how could he ever gain exp-

Pop: Do you understand how the playoffs work? You see we start out with 16 teams, eight from the West and eight from the East, and we give them seeds based on their regular season record...

Stampler: I just meant that everyone was a rookie once, Tim, Manu, Tony, and they all pla-

Pop: And then we pair them up based on those seeds and have them play a best-of-seven series against one another...

Stampler: Well I was just wondering if he doesn't play now, then what will the difference be nex-

Pop: Oh and what best-of-seven means is that the first team to four wins and then they get to advance to the next round of the playoffs against some other team that won their series. The losers go home. Their seasons are over. There. Do you think you understand why the playoffs are important now?

Stampler: Yes, I think I've got it. Thanks for explaining that to me Pop.

Pop: My pleasure. Any other questions?

Stampler: Just one more. I was hoping you'd clarify the statement you made a few days ago to Buck Harvey about Manu Ginobili...

Pop: Oh right. We're absolutely not going anywhere without Manu. He's very special and important for what we do here.

Stampler: Erm... yes. So why did you tell Buck that the guys have to forget about him then?

Pop: Because if we don't forget about him we have no chance to do anything.

Stampler: That sentence completely contradicted the previous one.

Pop: What are you some kind of idiot?

Stampler: I don't think I can tell anymore.

Pop: See, blog boy, it's real simple - If the team on the floor is thinking about Manu, if they're thinking, 'oh it's okay, he's gonna come and save us and fix everything' then we're completely screwed. He's not coming, he's not gonna save us and we have to do it on our own without him.

Stampler: Well that makes sense. So, how far can this team go, realistically speaking?

Pop (shaking head incredulously): Didn't I just tell you without Manu we don't have a chance to do anything? Are you even listening to what I'm saying after you ask your stupid questions?

Stampler: I'm just a rookie reporter Pop, please have patience with me.

Pop: Well, you seem like a nice kid. I'm sure you'll get better with experience.

Stampler: You mean like George Hill could be doing if you played him?

/ Pop storms out

Stampler: Wait, Pop! Come back! I've got a question about Manu's rehab? Was his stress reaction due to him being too aggressive or not aggressive enough?