As I watched the Iowa season implode I had a number of theories about what was happening on the field.  One of my biggest concerns was why Iowa seemed so hesitant to run the ball after Adam Robinson's concussion in the Michigan State game.  Was it that they felt that Coker was so ineffective?  Was it the fact that Coker was virtually the last running back available?  Regardless, I wanted to see whether this perception was even true and what I found was kind of eye opening. 

 

		rush	pass
Date	Opponent	plays	plays	diff.
Sept. 4	EASTERN ILLINOIS	39	26	13
Sept. 11	IOWA STATE	50	20	30
Sept. 18	at Arizona	26	33	-7
Sept. 25	BALL STATE	44	29	15
Oct. 2	PENN STATE	36	22	14
Oct. 16	at Michigan	36	24	12
Oct. 23	WISCONSIN	30	37	-7
Oct. 30	MICHIGAN STATE	42	16	26
Nov. 6	at Indiana	29	33	-4
Nov. 13	at Northwestern	28	43	-15
Nov. 20	OHIO STATE	25	31	-6
Nov 27, 2010	at Minnesota	27	22	5

I highlighted in yellow the five losses plus the Indiana game, which was a near miss.  For purposes of analysis let's identify all of the yellow games as "losses" and all of the non-highlighted games as "wins".  There were two really interesting things that I noticed here:

1.) Iowa ran the ball more than 35 times in each of its wins and ran the ball 30 or fewer times in each of its losses. 

2.) Iowa ran the ball at least ten more times than it threw in each of its wins.  Iowa threw the ball more than it ran the ball in each of its losses except Minnesota.  At first blush you can say that's because they were constantly playing from behind, but the only game where that seems to be clearly true is Arizona. 

Also, it's worth noting that average yards per carry is a minor issue.  Iowa's lowest three YPC performances this season came against Arizona, tOSU and Minnesota.  But Iowa ran the ball better against Wisconsin (3.93 YPC) than against Michigan State (3.86 YPC) and better against jNWU (3.61 YPC) than Penn State (3.39 YPC).  And against Indiana, which was a damn near disaster, Iowa averaged 5.34 YPC but still only ran the ball 29 times. 

I don't know what it means and I don't think it's THE issue in our slide (this ignores such things as our inability to stop game-clinching drives and the complete mess that is special teams), but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

...then there was the BTN production of the Ball State game.  Wow.

The announcing was actually pretty good.  Larrivee was a pro as usual and I thought Danan Hughes was surprisingly good in color commentary, especially since I didn't know that he was even in broadcasting.  Since his profile on the BTN homepage is coming soon, maybe the network didn't even know.  The only complaint about Hughes is that he used maybe a little too much jargon.  Your casual football fan may have been confused to hear how Daniels was abusing the "A" gap, for example. 

The production of the game, however, was a complete, utter, fucking disaster.  The shots were blurry (maybe they were looking to help Iowa fans recreate the game day experience in person?), they held on shots that were unrelated to what was happening on the field and they regularly missed plays.  The replay of the long TD to DJK featured Keenan Davis's crossing route instead of showing either the guy that threw the ball or the guy that caught it.  At one point they went to a sponsored feature and instead of showing the stock footage they showed a replay of the previous play. 

Maybe we're a little spoiled by getting ESPN/ABC national coverage and the production value that goes with it, but these last two weeks I've been absolutely astonished with the poor production quality of the games. 

Note: I wrote this on Sunday at around 7:00 AM CDT.  I got some positive feedback on it and thought I might share it with a wider Iowa audience. 

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I don't remember if this has been covered here, but I thought I'd throw it out for discussion.  Football fans seem like a surprisingly superstitious bunch and Iowa fans right now are particularly so.  I think it's the "Crash Davis" approach.  To paraphrase: Iowa fans don't want to mess with the streak.  So if Iowa is winning because you're getting laid or you're not getting laid or because you put on women's underwear then you are.

My superstitions around Iowa football are:

1.) I never wear the opposing team's colors the week of the game. 

2.) I always wear black and gold (but not Iowa apparel) to work on Friday before a game.

3.) I have two young children that are still using sippy cups.  I will not ever combine a red cup with a yellow lid or vice versa.  I also never let them wear yellow and red together. 

4.) If I'm not at Kinnick, I have to watch the game in the lowest level of whatever building I'm in.  AND my wife has to be there.  Last year we were at Kinnick for Arizona, jNWU and Minnesota.  We watched the Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Arkansas State, Wisky, Michigan State, Indiana and tOSU games from my basement.  For the Penn State game we were at my inlaws house.  I watched it from their basement.  For the Michigan game we had a function for my wife's job.  We left early and went to a sports bar where we caught the second half.  There was an upstairs bar, but I had to stay downstairs to watch the game.

5.) I live in the northwest suburbs of Chicago but I will never, ever watch Iowa play in Evanston again.  I'm convinced that my presence is the reason that Iowa lost football games in 1995, 1997 and 1999 and two basketball games in the [name redacted] era.  I was tempted to get tickets this year, but the potential of preserving an undefeated season is more important to me than watching Iowa in person.

6.) My roommate from college lives up in Minneapolis.  We have to make sure we talk on the phone before every Iowa game or else we'll lose.  The phone is the critical piece.  We didn't talk on the phone before the jNWU game because we were both going to be at the game in person and we'd see each other at tailgating.

7.) I have a pair of lucky khaki cargo pants that I started wearing halfway through the 2001 season.  I don't wear them in the early fall, but once the weather starts to turn I wear those pants on game days whether I'm going to the game or not.

Anyone else?  What are your football superstitions?

Iowa will probably win pretty handily on Saturday with a number of the backups getting reps in the second half.  There are plenty of things to watch for, however, that will show what the team is capable of this season.  I wonder what people are watching for that will help show whether this is a good team or whether this team is capable of something great?

Most experts (and BHGP commenters) believe that Iowa will be very good defensively and will yield very few points.  In my mind, the difference between the Gator Bowl and a MNC hinges on the offense's ability to move the ball and score points.  Last season Iowa was in the bottom third in most offensive categories and coming into this season offensive line is a big question mark.

What I'm watching for on Saturday is how the team runs the ball, particularly on third down and short.  I think that is a big indicator of the team's ability to control the line of scrimmage and get yards to extend a drive or protect a lead.  Running the ball well on Saturday will be good evidence that this team could end up with a better record and better finish than they did last year, possibly culminating in a national title. 

What are you watching for?

So EDSBS is soliciting off-season confessions from the CFB faithful here: http://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2010/5/17/1470862/spring-cleaning-the-return-of-the#storyjump

The comment thread is well over 300, so my confessions would probably get lost in the shuffle.  Besides, it's the forgiveness of the Hawkeye faithful that will truly set my black and gold soul free.  So, to that end, here are my Hawkeye confessions:

1.) I think Herky is the second stupidest-looking mascot in the conference.  Only Boiler Pete is worse.  Unless it's homecoming and Herky is wearing the fake gray beard.  Homecoming Herky is the worst mascot in the Big Televen.

2.) When I was in school I referred to them as the University of Fuck Michigan and I had an Ann Arbor is a Whore t-shirt.  But in the intervening twelve years, I've met nothing but cool Michigan fans and I really think they're pretty good people.

3.) I love the Carmen Ohio tradition and I wish that we would sing Alma Mater Iowa after home games.

4.) I think Ferentz is a better coach than Fry was.

5.) I am enamored with pretty much all things Wisconsin.

6.) SEC fans seem to have more passion about their schools and football teams than Big Televen fans.

Anyone else have any confessions of their own to add?